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wvj100
04-06-2009, 10:35 AM
Law,
I hope you are right too as I loaded up on SDS at 71 yesterday and I'm awaiting for the SM drop to come....

I have never dabbled in FOREX/Money trading but everyone keeps talking about the Aussie economy and the strength of their dollar relative to others...
I was thinking of dabbling in this and came accross an ETF traded under the symbol FXA.
It seems like this is a decent way of hedging against inflation while keeping liquid. The fees of this ETF are fairly low (.4%/year) and it is 100% currency based between USD and Aussie$...
Have any of you traded in this ETF before?
I deferr to you more experienced trader's opinion on this one... Is the Aussie$/economy in general going to stay less affected by the global downturn that we all think is coming or is ALL currency, world wide, going to be devalued so there is no safe haven in any currency...?

I have been in FXA for awhile now. One little secret is that it pays a nice ~2% dividend. Nice little gift every month.
FXA tends to track the market but has done a lot better then most foreign currencies.

Good Luck

oodat
04-06-2009, 01:20 PM
Nice volume in Connacher today; what gives?

LazarusLong
04-06-2009, 06:07 PM
Been a lurker, want to learn, lotsa ig-nance to overcome....

Would anyone be kind enough to indicate what signal(s) one should look for when it's time to unload HGU down the road (other than the brilliance of Cyclist who tells us to get out of all stocks by June)?

Almost missed getting on board and would like to not miss the exit...

Thanks to all for the great posts...

LL

Bibiche
04-07-2009, 08:26 AM
Good morning Cyclist
You said yesterday "back 20% in the HOU".
I would like to know your thoughs about oil (WTI) sill the 50th hod ?
Thx for sharing your thoughs

tcg1022
04-07-2009, 08:47 AM
Will be 100% filled in my gold purchase at the close


Does this include mining stocks (BVN, AUY, etc)as well as gold holdings (Gld, DGP HGU).


Just want to make sure I am reading this correctly.

Thanks

Cyclist
04-07-2009, 08:49 AM
Good morning Cyclist
You said yesterday "back 20% in the HOU".
I would like to know your thoughs about oil (WTI) sill the 50th hod ?
Thx for sharing your thoughs

I will keep for now HOU at 20% and will daytrade this position.With deteriorating markets ,crude is following the mainmarket.
As well all positions will have trailing stops,HXD, HGU and SKF,there is no point to have your gains leave the table.

Bibiche
04-07-2009, 08:59 AM
I will keep for now HOU at 20% and will daytrade this position.With deteriorating markets ,crude is following the mainmarket.
As well all positions will have trailing stops,HXD, HGU and SKF,there is no point to have your gains leave the table.
Thx a lot Cyclist.

horton99
04-07-2009, 09:10 AM
I think you answered your own question. As it goes up, set you a stop loss of the maximum you are willing to lose. Other than that, get out when cyclist gets out.:D

Been a lurker, want to learn, lotsa ig-nance to overcome....

Would anyone be kind enough to indicate what signal(s) one should look for when it's time to unload HGU down the road (other than the brilliance of Cyclist who tells us to get out of all stocks by June)?

Almost missed getting on board and would like to not miss the exit...

Thanks to all for the great posts...

LL

Cyclist
04-07-2009, 09:25 AM
Does this include mining stocks (BVN, AUY, etc)as well as gold holdings (Gld, DGP HGU).


Just want to make sure I am reading this correctly.

Thanks

The mining stocks I hedge with HGD,HGD was sold yesterday and HGU was bought in its place.HGU is the addition to a net long position.
HGU will have a trailing stop.Being stopped out ,I will evaluate whether to hedge my goldstocks.

kukucat
04-07-2009, 09:43 AM
Cyclist,

Do you have any thoughts on SRS?

or you think is better to stay out of it for now?

Thanks

HaroldBalls
04-07-2009, 10:01 AM
Hey cyclist! Great thread.all of your information is greatly appreciated. I was wondering if gold is still "on the launching pad" or if conditions have changed? In general, what do you think we can expect in the near term for gold?

Thanks for everything!

Babylon Now
04-07-2009, 10:07 AM
piling on the SLV and GLD calls. Could bounce back up over 900 within the week as the market corrects.


And traders check out DNDN, loaded up on 150 calls, wish me luck on that rocket EOD!

Cyclist
04-07-2009, 10:09 AM
Hey cyclist! Great thread.all of your information is greatly appreciated. I was wondering if gold is still "on the launching pad" or if conditions have changed? In general, what do you think we can expect in the near term for gold?

Thanks for everything!

We might have to wait a day or two.Right now My gold/silver ratio tells me that liquidity is leaving the market

SparkyF7
04-07-2009, 10:19 AM
Cyclist: Thanks for your calls. I understand your use of HXD both as a hedge and as a general market-down position. Just curious though, do you ever get sector specific and use HFD of HFU? I seldom see you write about this. Is this because you can get more bang for your buck by doing this with US financials because of greater volatility in US financials?

tcg1022
04-07-2009, 10:20 AM
Miners have broke away from the main market. The DOW is down almost 200 and the majority of all my miners are positive this morning. Little change in Ag and Au prices. Looks like yesterday was the time to load up IMO. 95% of my orders were filled by yesterdays close.

Now I will turn my attention to oil and try to average down in DXO. I see it touching 2.90 today. May set a buy order in the 2.80ish area.

Law97
04-07-2009, 10:34 AM
Miners have broke away from the main market. The DOW is down almost 200 and the majority of all my miners are positive this morning. Little change in Ag and Au prices. Looks like yesterday was the time to load up IMO. 95% of my orders were filled by yesterdays close.


Whew. Loaded up yesterday on AUY at 8.07 and 8.12 and SDS on Friday at 69. Both nicely green today. Have a sell order in on half of my SDS at 74.5. It got to 74.44 this morning then has fallen back. Looking to move my sell down to 74.3 as I don't want to get caught in it during a possible upside reversal today. Will likely hold my AUY today but may sell that today too if gold starts acting like it wants to reverse.

SDS now at 72.99. Missed my sell by .06 this morning and then by .10 when I moved my sell point lower. Now I'm $1K less in the green than an hour ago. Not gonna chase it down though, I'm now going to let it come back to my sell point. Market usually gives at least one retest of the lows later in the day.

manapk
04-07-2009, 11:25 AM
Respected Cyclist
Please what do you have to say about Physical GOLD. Thank you for all the help here.

HeavyMeddle
04-07-2009, 11:48 AM
Is UNG still on schedule to stop sucking by 3rd week April? :confused:

tothemoon
04-07-2009, 11:59 AM
I will keep for now HOU at 20% and will daytrade this position.With deteriorating markets ,crude is following the mainmarket.
As well all positions will have trailing stops,HXD, HGU and SKF,there is no point to have your gains leave the table.

Hi,

Picked up HOU yesterday a bit early.

Would you keep it, hedge or sell? HGU is offsetting it for now.


Thanks,

ddn3f
04-07-2009, 12:00 PM
Respected Cyclist
Please what do you have to say about Physical GOLD. Thank you for all the help here.

Cyclist says you should not sell physical and that it is a good time to accumulate more physical.

greenbeard
04-07-2009, 12:07 PM
Record cold in these parts. Turn up the heat. ;)

Is UNG still on schedule to stop sucking by 3rd week April? :confused:

zoezoe
04-07-2009, 12:19 PM
went large on wtm they did nicely even in the down trend.
think financials will do well with mark to market and looming up tick rule.


Cyclist, any thoughts on lithium picked up mountain capital on speculation,some insider action as of late..looks like G.M. is coming out with an electric car on Friday?

cool_inv
04-07-2009, 01:07 PM
I will keep for now HOU at 20% and will daytrade this position.With deteriorating markets ,crude is following the mainmarket.
As well all positions will have trailing stops,HXD, HGU and SKF,there is no point to have your gains leave the table.

Cyclist, thanks for sharing your thoughts!

If you are not stopped out, will you remain short overnight with your HXD position?

rtsang
04-07-2009, 01:10 PM
We might have to wait a day or two.Right now My gold/silver ratio tells me that liquidity is leaving the market

Hi Cyclist, do you mean liquidity leaving the stock market or the gold/silver market? That makes a big difference.

SpiderMan
04-07-2009, 01:38 PM
Cyclist,

what are your views on the stocks and the crude till the end of this week?
you see the Dow sub-7700?

thanks!

bullau
04-07-2009, 02:10 PM
Hi Cyclist, do you mean liquidity leaving the stock market or the gold/silver market? That makes a big difference.

Stock market.......Not to pick on you but people have to stop asking the same questions over and over again.....I can't imagine how much it irritates cyclist because it irritates the heck out of me.

Gold:silver ratio is a barometer of the markets and sentiment.

greenbeard
04-07-2009, 02:27 PM
Besides, most of you are not traders and should not be. Most of cyclist calls are trades.


Stock market.......Not to pick on you but people have to stop asking the same questions over and over again.....I can't imagine how much it irritates cyclist because it irritates the heck out of me.

Gold:silver ratio is a barometer of the markets and sentiment.

migold
04-07-2009, 03:00 PM
Hi Cyclist. Do you have a read on the end of today and tomorrow's open? Has worry over upcoming earnings and impact of TALF auction, especially on financial sector been baked in? Do you foresee additional downside?

Thank you as always.

skylab
04-07-2009, 03:04 PM
How are these accounting changes going to affect FAZ?
Is it best to stay away from it for the next day or two?
Thanks

jabat
04-07-2009, 03:07 PM
migold,
Cyclist just answered your question at the other link .

goose1
04-07-2009, 03:09 PM
Hi Cyclist. Do you have a read on the end of today and tomorrow's open? Has worry over upcoming earnings and impact of TALF auction, especially on financial sector been baked in? Do you foresee additional downside?

Thank you as always.

Here is what he had to say in the golds action thread.

Interday patterns suggests a steep drop coming in tomorrow.
Gold should make a run.We will see how the close is going to look like.
Still short or hedged as previous in all issues and will carry it over to the next day.

HeavyMeddle
04-07-2009, 03:09 PM
pretty disappointed with miner performance today... i'm long all of my mining stock positions, but should I still be targeting end of May as the time to get out?

migold
04-07-2009, 03:12 PM
How are these accounting changes going to affect FAZ?
Is it best to stay away from it for the next day or two?
Thanks

Thanks Skylab. I missed that. Will plan accordingly.

skylab
04-07-2009, 03:16 PM
Thanks Skylab. I missed that. Will plan accordingly.

Just to be clear, I'm ASKING if it's good to stay away, not suggesting it.

karma
04-07-2009, 03:24 PM
tim.to just woke up a short time ago.

rtsang
04-07-2009, 04:50 PM
Stock market.......Not to pick on you but people have to stop asking the same questions over and over again.....I can't imagine how much it irritates cyclist because it irritates the heck out of me.

Gold:silver ratio is a barometer of the markets and sentiment.

How could one just by looking at the gold:silver ratio can determine the stock market? The money can go to bonds, currency, emerging market...etc. Just curious.

Cyclist
04-07-2009, 04:53 PM
How could one just by looking at the gold:silver ratio can determine the stock market? The money can go to bonds, currency, emerging market...etc. Just curious.

Don't ask ,investigate.You got one of the tools

abcd1234
04-07-2009, 07:20 PM
I have been doing a lot of research on the gold:silver ratio, and what it means for everything from the metals, the mining stocks and the general markets and commodities in general.

When it rises (as it seems to be doing), the goldstocks take a short term beating (which is ironic since they benefit from it) and the general markets and commodities tend to drop as well.

Cyclists explanation is as good as anything else I have found - namely that it represents a drying up of liquidity (which takes the bid out from under everything).

This seems to be an "all important" technical indicator that is sort of like possessing the "master key" that unlocks all the doors. It literally gives you the ability to forecast what is going to happen.

shastasmith
04-07-2009, 07:51 PM
I have been doing a lot of research on the gold:silver ratio, and what it means for everything from the metals, the mining stocks and the general markets and commodities in general.

When it rises (as it seems to be doing), the goldstocks take a short term beating (which is ironic since they benefit from it) and the general markets and commodities tend to drop as well.

Cyclists explanation is as good as anything else I have found - namely that it represents a drying up of liquidity (which takes the bid out from under everything).

This seems to be an "all important" technical indicator that is sort of like possessing the "master key" that unlocks all the doors. It literally gives you the ability to forecast what is going to happen.

Thank you for the explanation! I very briefly looked into this ratio a while back, and what was interesting is that there are periods where both the ratio and the price of gold/commodities/markets go up/down in tandem. Take a look at the charts in this page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/gegsr.html

In your research, were there any other indicators that you found that can be used in conjunction with gold/silver ratio to add to the reliability of this measure?

Thank you!

NonSequitur
04-07-2009, 07:59 PM
Summary of the article:

So there you have it. You now better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the more popular gold stock indexes; how ratios operate; the limitations and risks of using gold:gold stock ratios in isolation; how to track the performance of the micro-cap gold mining sector in addition to that of the large and medium cap sector; and understand the insightful relationship of the various indexes to the Purchasing Managers Index.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/127533-how-to-use-five-gold-mining-indexes-to-predict-future-gold-movement

abcd1234
04-07-2009, 07:59 PM
Thank you for the explanation! I very briefly looked into this ratio a while back, and what was interesting is that there are periods where both the ratio and the price of gold/commodities/markets go up/down in tandem. Take a look at the charts in this page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/gegsr.html

In your research, were there any other indicators that you found that can be used in conjunction with gold/silver ratio to add to the reliability of this measure?

Thank you!

I am thinking that the ratio should be monitored very closely and trading decisions based upon it. That is why I have been trying to find a charting service that will enable charting the ratio in real time, even down to the 1min - 5min timeframes. So far, I havent found one yet. The daily/weekly is good for the macro, but, I want to drill down into the intraday.

shastasmith
04-07-2009, 08:18 PM
abcd1234 and NonSequitur: Thanks for the guidance and link. Time to do some night-time reading and analysis for me :-)

BellRockMiner
04-07-2009, 09:31 PM
Hi Cyclist. Do you have a read on the end of today and tomorrow's open? Has worry over upcoming earnings and impact of TALF auction, especially on financial sector been baked in? Do you foresee additional downside?

Thank you as always.
Did you notice what happened to the BKX in the last few minutes of trading today? The big drop and increased volume? Expanding PM ratio? This is a test.....if you have read Cyclists posts, you know the answer to your question.

migold
04-07-2009, 10:27 PM
I am thinking that the ratio should be monitored very closely and trading decisions based upon it. That is why I have been trying to find a charting service that will enable charting the ratio in real time, even down to the 1min - 5min timeframes. So far, I havent found one yet. The daily/weekly is good for the macro, but, I want to drill down into the intraday.

I haven't been able to locate one either yet and agree that this would be well worth monitoring daily. If anyone has a link or custom chart, it would be terrific for the forum to analyze.

HeavyMeddle
04-07-2009, 11:14 PM
abcd1234 and NonSequitur: Thanks for the guidance and link. Time to do some night-time reading and analysis for me :-)

+1

:lightbulb emoticon:

thank you gents.

marcuz
04-08-2009, 06:13 AM
widening gold/silver ration is naturally bad for any stock (even gold stocks) because it signals that silver (think industrial value) is underperforming gold (think safe haven).

cherithomas
04-08-2009, 06:21 AM
Hou is not on my market platform.

I am trading in the USA & NZ,
is there anything else that cyclist has recomended that is a good trading vehical for oil that is similar to Hou?.
Pou is that similar?

1/. Oil Search Ltd and
2/. WorleyParsons Ltd (this one is also listed on Toronto EX

are these any good

Thankyou

Fresnel
04-08-2009, 07:31 AM
Summary of the article:

So there you have it. You now better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the more popular gold stock indexes; how ratios operate; the limitations and risks of using gold:gold stock ratios in isolation; how to track the performance of the micro-cap gold mining sector in addition to that of the large and medium cap sector; and understand the insightful relationship of the various indexes to the Purchasing Managers Index.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/127533-how-to-use-five-gold-mining-indexes-to-predict-future-gold-movement

Doesn't he have this backwards. "When a gold/gold stock (G/GS) ratio is climbing on a chart, it means the top number is outperforming the bottom number. In the case of a climbing G/GS ratio, for example, the gold stocks, as represented by the particular index, are either rising faster than gold or falling slower than gold in order for the G/GS ratio to rise. Conversely, when a ratio is falling, it means the bottom number is outperforming the top. For a G/GS ratio this happens when gold rises faster than the index gold stocks or, far more typically, when gold falls more slowly than the basket of gold stocks"

When the ratio is rising, gold is rising faster than gold stocks, or gold is falling slower than gold stocks. Etc.

horton99
04-08-2009, 09:15 AM
Just to add to this g/s ratio discussion. Read Cyclist second comment below very carefully. I believe that he says the ratio works one way when one of the prices is up. BUT it is INVERSE when they are both down or negative.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyclist
You take the average 20 mins price action of gold and silver during the day .
The ratio gold/silver is changing continuously ,expansion of the ratio between the two will flag contraction of prices,contraction of the ratio will lean to an upcoming rise of the metals.

To add when prices are negative the inverse occurs,i.e. when silver is down 10 cents and gold 10 dollars ,there is a change happening and it mirrors increased liquidity.just to let you know

SpiderMan
04-08-2009, 09:21 AM
Cyclist,

are you still expecting a steep drop today???

bullau
04-08-2009, 09:24 AM
Just to add to this g/s ratio discussion. Read Cyclist second comment below very carefully. I believe that he says the ratio works one way when one of the prices is up. BUT it is INVERSE when they are both down or negative.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyclist
You take the average 20 mins price action of gold and silver during the day .
The ratio gold/silver is changing continuously ,expansion of the ratio between the two will flag contraction of prices,contraction of the ratio will lean to an upcoming rise of the metals.

To add when prices are negative the inverse occurs,i.e. when silver is down 10 cents and gold 10 dollars ,there is a change happening and it mirrors increased liquidity.just to let you know


It is a ratio guys.......It is not that complicated........If one goes up or down more than the other depends on whether it is the numerator(gold) or denominator(silver)............Eg. With a higher silver price or less of a decrease in silver relative to gold the ratio will contract as silver is the denominator and therefore means more liquidity.........Not that complicated.

tcg1022
04-08-2009, 09:27 AM
Keeping thesame ,no change.HBU ,HGD to hedge,HXD.No HOU and HNU until next week


So iin your opinion the low for oil and NG will be next week Cyclsit?

Will your PF be 100% into crude next week at some point?

I need to take 2 more bites of crude to be in 100%.

Cyclist
04-08-2009, 09:27 AM
Cyclist,

are you still expecting a steep drop today???

Will bail out of the HXD at the opening,to come back short at the close

horton99
04-08-2009, 09:40 AM
OK bullau, but I think you are missing something. Reread Cyclist's post or ask him. He explains expansion and contraction THEN he says "To add when prices are negative the inverse occurs" He is talking about something being inverse of the just explained expansion and contraction. I have had lots of math, married to a math professor. I know what inverse means. I think everyone is missing his second point.

Cyclist, am I off base here?

It is a ratio guys.......It is not that complicated........If one goes up or down more than the other depends on whether it is the numerator(gold) or denominator(silver)............Eg. With a higher silver price or less of a decrease in silver relative to gold the ratio will contract as silver is the denominator and therefore means more liquidity.........Not that complicated.

sanremo
04-08-2009, 09:43 AM
QUESTION:

shut shorts now and come at the close ( SRS,SKF )?
another
must take position UCO now?

Best regards

Cyclist
04-08-2009, 09:47 AM
QUESTION:

shut shorts now and come at the close ( SRS,SKF )?
another
must take position UCO now?

Best regards

short in and out intraday,took another bite in HOU.

sanremo
04-08-2009, 09:55 AM
thanks Cyclist
but I can not take position in hou.To only Usa because I trade from sudamerica

tcg1022
04-08-2009, 09:59 AM
short in and out intraday,took another bite in HOU.

How many more bites do you need to fill HOU 100% ?

Thanks


Just put SL on all my miners and looking for another bite of DXO in the 2.80ish area. Oil should have alot of support at 47.xx

abcd1234
04-08-2009, 10:04 AM
Just got an email about CEF. It normally trades at about a 15% premium to book value. This morning, it has dropped down to about 8%.

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 10:05 AM
short in and out intraday,took another bite in HOU.

FWIW the Nat gas/Crude ratio is likely making a long term bottom IMO. It is near the lowest levels in 15-18 years.

MK

Cyclist
04-08-2009, 10:07 AM
How many more bites do you need to fill HOU 100% ?

Thanks


Just put SL on all my miners and looking for another bite of DXO in the 2.80ish area. Oil should have alot of support at 47.xx

three more ,only at 40%

Bluebonnet
04-08-2009, 10:19 AM
Just got an email about CEF. It normally trades at about a 15% premium to book value. This morning, it has dropped down to about 8%.

I don't understand why they would do this to their current investors. I hold most of my retirement account in CEF and I just lost 7% of the value when I woke up this morning. And gold is up. Any ideas out there on the long term impact? This one really hurts.

Law97
04-08-2009, 10:20 AM
Well, that was a nasty little whipsaw. Gold up all night, up right through the NY open, then carpet bombed the last 20 minutes. I'm looking at all my other charts, nothing changed as far as USD, overall SM still up modestly, oil steady, no announcements, hmmm. Looks like there was a single big U.S. gold seller that just hit the market out of nowhere. No other explanation for this snap-around that just happened in a vacuum. Took a 5% portfolio haircut in that time...and that's with being 50% cash...from being up 3% right after the open. I'm gonna need a neck brace:rolleyes:

Since whipsaw looks to be from a single big seller, this does not appear to be a reversal, and gold should climb back up from this bomb-low.

rtsang
04-08-2009, 10:21 AM
It is a ratio guys.......It is not that complicated........If one goes up or down more than the other depends on whether it is the numerator(gold) or denominator(silver)............Eg. With a higher silver price or less of a decrease in silver relative to gold the ratio will contract as silver is the denominator and therefore means more liquidity.........Not that complicated.

This one I totally understand, but I can't relate it to predict the directory of main market.

horton99
04-08-2009, 10:22 AM
Cyclist,

Sorry to belabor the issue, but I would like to be sure that I am thinking correctly. As far as the Gold/Silver ratio, is it always?

Ratio Contracting = more liquidity = lean toward higher spot prices
Ratio Expanding = tightening liquidity = flag for contraction of prices = also signal weakness for stock market.

Should this be interpreted differently (inversely) when both gold and silver are going down (negative)?

Horton

Bluebonnet
04-08-2009, 10:26 AM
Cyclist,

Sorry to belabor the issue, but I would like to be sure that I am thinking correctly. As far as the Gold/Silver ratio, is it always?

Ratio Contracting = more liquidity = lean toward higher spot prices
Ratio Expanding = tightening liquidity = flag for contraction of prices = also signal weakness for stock market.

Should this be interpreted differently (inversely) when both are gold and silver are going down (negative)?

Horton

If I understand correctly:

As the number decreases = more liquidity (was at 69ish over the last month) = Gold will go higher

As the number gets higher = less liquidity (is now at 72ish) = Gold will go lower

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

EDIT: Just wanted to add that you can view the current ratios on the tab "All Metal Quotes" on Kitco. It's at the bottom of the page. Since Cyclist gave us this information, I've been looking at it daily along with the regular gold/silver quotes.

abcd1234
04-08-2009, 10:28 AM
If I understand correctly:

As the number decreases = more liquidity (was at 69ish over the last month) = Gold will go higher

As the number gets higher = less liquidity (is now at 72ish) = Gold will go lower

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

EDIT: Just wanted to add that you can view the current ratios on the tab "All Metal Quotes" on Kitco. It's at the bottom of the page. Since Cyclist gave us this information, I've been looking at it daily along with the regular gold/silver quotes.

You have the right idea...except it isnt just gold. when the ratio is rising, EVERYTHING goes down...stocks, commodities, PMs, etc... (drying up of liquidity).

rtsang
04-08-2009, 10:29 AM
IMHO, Silver looks like a good buy here, any comments?

Bluebonnet
04-08-2009, 10:32 AM
You have the right idea...except it isnt just gold. when the ratio is rising, EVERYTHING goes down...stocks, commodities, PMs, etc... (drying up of liquidity).

AHHH...ok. But now I'm a little confused. If gold prices are inversely related to the stock market (which I thought it was in terms of safe haven buying - someone please correct me if I'm wrong), how is this the case?

rtsang
04-08-2009, 10:33 AM
One thought of market manipulation, whenever Dow/SP500 goes up, most of the stocks goes up and the index works the other way as well. I know most of them are components but how the hack the share the pattern intraday? It looks like a software with huge amount of money, doing buy buy buy on all stocks and sell sell sell as well.

bullau
04-08-2009, 10:33 AM
Cyclist,

Sorry to belabor the issue, but I would like to be sure that I am thinking correctly. As far as the Gold/Silver ratio, is it always?

Ratio Contracting = more liquidity = lean toward higher spot prices
Ratio Expanding = tightening liquidity = flag for contraction of prices = also signal weakness for stock market.

Should this be interpreted differently (inversely) when both gold and silver are going down (negative)?

Horton

It is a ratio...........Look at a chart of the volatility index($VIX) over any time period........days, months, years and then compare it to the gold:silver ratio chart over same time periods...........Do you see a relationship?? If you know what the volatility index means to stock markets then you will get it.........

If not then I don't know what to tell you..........ask your wife.

That is your answer a

SpiderMan
04-08-2009, 10:33 AM
Cyclist,

what do you expect of the main market today?
a big drop still possible?

titusjma
04-08-2009, 10:38 AM
three more ,only at 40%
Hi Cyclist,
Are you buying more HOU based on the EIA report just released?
What is your SL but also where would you sell out if the price goes up?
Daytrade only or do you think you'll hold your HOU position longer?
Thank you very much

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 10:43 AM
I don't understand why they would do this to their current investors. I hold most of my retirement account in CEF and I just lost 7% of the value when I woke up this morning. And gold is up. Any ideas out there on the long term impact? This one really hurts.

Do YOU UNDERSTAND what you invest in? You do know that it has been for a long time trading at a premium to it's NAV that can fluctuate a lot depending upon prevailing sentiment toward gold and silver? Know what you are investing in!

MK

lowcommotion
04-08-2009, 10:44 AM
Just got an email about CEF. It normally trades at about a 15% premium to book value. This morning, it has dropped down to about 8%.

That's because I bought some a couple of days ago.
No really it's because of some new underwriting by
CIBC at 10.50 per share.See(market wire). Just wanted
to buy some gold/silver insurance in my RRSP and now I lose
about 8% overnight. I guess I should have had
a stop in place.I was watching gold as this usually
follows it and was not prepared for this. AAAAAAARRRGH!
Bank just found another way to screw me again!

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 10:45 AM
That's because I bought some a couple of days ago.
No really it's because of some new underwriting by
CIBC at 10.50 per share.See(market wire). Just wanted
to buy some gold/silver insurance in my RRSP and now I lose
about 8% overnight. I guess I should have had
a stop in place.I was watching gold as this usually
follows it and was not prepared for this. AAAAAAARRRGH!
Bank just found another way to screw me again!

This happens from time to time in the CEF, were you not aware of that?

MK

bullau
04-08-2009, 10:46 AM
Do YOU UNDERSTAND what you invest in? You do know that it has been for a long time trading at a premium to it's NAV that can fluctuate a lot depending upon prevailing sentiment toward gold and silver? Know what you are investing in!

MK

One of the subscriptions I follow did a study on the CEF and found that when the premium dropped to less than 5% to NAV which is rare.......Turns out to be a great buying opportunity for gold so therefore we are close to a reversal which goes along with cyclist.

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 10:47 AM
One of the subscriptions I follow did a study on the CEF and found that when the premium dropped to less than 5% to NAV which is rare.......Turns out to be a great buying opportunity for gold so therefore we are close to a reversal which goes along with cyclist.

New stock issue announcement in the CEF often results in a quick drop in premium, which is what we have had.

MK

horton99
04-08-2009, 10:49 AM
Why do you keep using that tone with me? I have always enjoyed your input and have respect for you. I have been around here for awhile and I am not stupid. I know what a ratio is. Believe it or not I know what numerator and denomintor are. ;) I agree with the major premise of all that has been discussed. I am just trying to decipher if Cyclist was trying to give us a little more insight than just contraction and expansion.

It is a ratio...........Look at a chart of the volatility index($VIX) over any time period........days, months, years and then compare it to the gold:silver ratio chart over same time periods...........Do you see a relationship?? If you know what the volatility index means to stock markets then you will get it.........

If not then I don't know what to tell you..........ask your wife.

That is your answer a

famous
04-08-2009, 10:49 AM
Hey MK, If Blue Bonnet understood what he was doing, he wouldn't be on this forum listening to people like you. The only reason any of us are here is cause we don't have a clue. except for Cyclist, most of us, including you are amateurs and novices. Only stupid questions are the ones you don't ask and the only stupid people are the ones that stifle questions.

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 10:56 AM
Hey MK, If Blue Bonnet understood what he was doing, he wouldn't be on this forum listening to people like you. The only reason any of us are here is cause we don't have a clue. except for Cyclist, most of us, including you are amateurs and novices. Only stupid questions are the ones you don't ask and the only stupid people are the ones that stifle questions.

LOL, whatever man. Have been doing this for many decades and have learned from the school of hard knocks to take some time to become knowledgeable about what I put my money in - IMHO it's pure stupidity to do otherwise. Never, ever, follow someone blindly and not know the type of instruments you are using.

MK

lowcommotion
04-08-2009, 10:57 AM
This happens from time to time in the CEF, were you not aware of that?

MK

I guess not. I would have thought that when using
new money to buy precious metals the value would
be tied to the cost of the metal somehow. Seems
that they are giving CIBC a big discount or what?
Maybe someone can explain this to me? Thanks.
Just glad I only had 300 shares. Maybe Questrade's
gold in your RRSP would be better?
Update
Grabbed another 100 @ 13.08 this am now up to 13.45.
Is this just shorting to scare you out or what?

AllthatglittersisPD
04-08-2009, 10:57 AM
Cyclist and anyone else, could the hijacked ship be affecting oil prices at all? I was going to bite into DXO at 2.83 but it's already up to 3.02 last time I checked. That's a pretty fast rise.

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 10:59 AM
I guess not. I would have thought that when using
new money to buy precious metals the value would
be tied to the cost of the metal somehow. Seems
that they are giving CIBC a big discount or what?
Maybe someone can explain this to me? Thanks.
Just glad I only had 300 shares. Maybe Questrade's
gold in your RRSP would be better?

GTU had the same occurrence in early January, that lead to an important bottom 5 days later, the premium eventually came back as gold rallied.

MK

horton99
04-08-2009, 11:00 AM
Full moon coming up? Even I am getting agitated for little cause:confused: :mad:

edit: yep. Just looked it up. 99% full. Sorry bullau.

exectech
04-08-2009, 11:01 AM
One of the subscriptions I follow did a study on the CEF and found that when the premium dropped to less than 5% to NAV which is rare.......Turns out to be a great buying opportunity for gold so therefore we are close to a reversal which goes along with cyclist.

perhaps you could post which subscription this was as I would love to read how they put together that theory

AllthatglittersisPD
04-08-2009, 11:04 AM
I don't know, but I just bit into DXO, this rise is too fast, must be something brewing. I am pretty sure the U.S. is going to take some kind of big action, that always drives crude up, We'll see. Hope it all works out. I think it's the first pirate attack on a U.S. ship in 200 years.

exectech
04-08-2009, 11:06 AM
I don't know, but I just bit into DXO, this rise is too fast, must be something brewing. I am pretty sure the U.S. is going to take some kind of big action, that always drives crude up, We'll see. Hope it all works out. I think it's the first pirate attack on a U.S. ship in 200 years.

yes, I made a dump @ 3.12, good luck

bullau
04-08-2009, 11:10 AM
Full moon coming up? Even I am getting agitated for little cause:confused: :mad:

edit: yep. Just looked it up. 99% full. Sorry bullau.

No Problem.........what do you mean 99& full??
It is crazy how similar the VIX chart and gold:silver ratio

AllthatglittersisPD
04-08-2009, 11:13 AM
yes, I made a dump @ 3.12, good luck

I have to hold it for three days anyway due to unsettled funds but I figured that was ok. Might drop down again but it will be back up sooner than later.

bullau
04-08-2009, 11:13 AM
perhaps you could post which subscription this was as I would love to read how they put together that theory

I'll try to find it but it was awhile ago on the per said subscription.

Bibiche
04-08-2009, 11:20 AM
Sold 20% oil at 50$ to come in Nat Gas at 3.59.
More upward possibility I believe...:cool:
Good call on oil (HOU) Cyclist! Thx.

Fresnel
04-08-2009, 11:29 AM
Bought it at 6.38 Monday, away for the day yesterday, bailed out near the close for 6.07, and now it's at 6.50. Ah me.......

horton99
04-08-2009, 11:29 AM
I looked up the moon phase. It's at 99% full. I have seen some wild times in this forum on full moon. I have even gotten sucked in myself a few times. It appears that the moon phase stimulates me to be more aggressive/defensive. Possibly others as well.

No Problem.........what do you mean 99& full??
It is crazy how similar the VIX chart and gold:silver ratio

GoldBricker
04-08-2009, 11:32 AM
Since whipsaw looks to be from a single big seller, this does not appear to be a reversal, and gold should climb back up from this bomb-low.

Hedge funds two major buys last week were 2 year treasuries and gold. Could be Hedge fund action

exectech
04-08-2009, 11:32 AM
I have to hold it for three days anyway due to unsettled funds but I figured that was ok. Might drop down again but it will be back up sooner than later.

it's still sitting pretty well, looking for a re entry around 2.90

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3394/3423504395_34094085b2_o.jpg

Bluebonnet
04-08-2009, 11:38 AM
Hey MK, If Blue Bonnet understood what he was doing, he wouldn't be on this forum listening to people like you. The only reason any of us are here is cause we don't have a clue. except for Cyclist, most of us, including you are amateurs and novices. Only stupid questions are the ones you don't ask and the only stupid people are the ones that stifle questions.

Thanks for the kind comments. I'm sure I do come across as pretty ignorant after losing 7% in one day... I definitely feel that way about myself today. I'm not a trader by any stretch of the imagination, just a person trying to figure it all out after losing too much on mutual funds (which were supposed to be safe) and finding that all the "expert" financial advisers out there could do was sell mutual funds. I bought CEF on the advice of a trusted family member who studies this stuff. Everything I read about CEF gave me confidence in the safety of my investment, never came across anything about premiums prior to purchasing. Hopefully it will all wash out in the end.

We're all in this crazy mess together, the world is a crazy place right now, so I appreciate the patience and expertise of those out there like Cyclist and MK who can share their experience with us. Some lessons are learned the hard way, unfortunately.

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 11:44 AM
Thanks for the kind comments. I'm sure I do come across as pretty ignorant after losing 7% in one day... I definitely feel that way about myself today. I'm not a trader by any stretch of the imagination, just a person trying to figure it all out after losing too much on mutual funds (which were supposed to be safe) and finding that all the "expert" financial advisers out there could do was sell mutual funds. I bought CEF on the advice of a trusted family member who studies this stuff. Everything I read about CEF gave me confidence in the safety of my investment, never came across anything about premiums prior to purchasing. Hopefully it will all wash out in the end.

We're all in this crazy mess together, the world is a crazy place right now, so I appreciate the patience and expertise of those out there like Cyclist and MK who can share their experience with us. Some lessons are learned the hard way, unfortunately.

Amigo, if you are long gold or the CEF for the long run this is just a blip on the radar screen and should be ignored. But closed end funds can often trade at premiums or discounts, depending upon prevailing market sentiment.

tcg1022
04-08-2009, 11:48 AM
it's still sitting pretty well, looking for a re entry around 2.90

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3394/3423504395_34094085b2_o.jpg



I think you will get that re entry at around 2.90, IMO it may even test the 2.80 ish area as it did this morning. Crude could retest its support level of 47 one more time before taking off although that could have happened this morning.

I dont think the hijacked ship off the Somali coast will effect crude prices what so ever though;) FWIW. Others occurances in the Middle East could though. I am looking to take 2 more bites of crude myself and probaly should have taken one this morning when Cyclist did.

AGoldhamster
04-08-2009, 11:56 AM
Thanks for the kind comments. I'm sure I do come across as pretty ignorant after losing 7% in one day... I definitely feel that way about myself today. I'm not a trader by any stretch of the imagination, just a person trying to figure it all out after losing too much on mutual funds (which were supposed to be safe) and finding that all the "expert" financial advisers out there could do was sell mutual funds. I bought CEF on the advice of a trusted family member who studies this stuff. Everything I read about CEF gave me confidence in the safety of my investment, never came across anything about premiums prior to purchasing. Hopefully it will all wash out in the end.

We're all in this crazy mess together, the world is a crazy place right now, so I appreciate the patience and expertise of those out there like Cyclist and MK who can share their experience with us. Some lessons are learned the hard way, unfortunately.
Think of CEF like of coins!
One of the best investments you can have.
Forget the noise. MK is 100% right.

BTW: Smart traders just always have some funds left to buy such gifts.
Look how much it already recovered from the lows! 4%
Tells it all. All smart traders running after CEF.

Again ... with CEF you can sleep like a baby, best investment after coins.

greenbeard
04-08-2009, 12:04 PM
I would have hard time sleeping if I am in all bullion and gold stocks tripple, but my gold coins are up only 50%.

Think of CEF like of coins!
One of the best investments you can have.
Forget the noise. MK is 100% right.

BTW: Smart traders just always have some funds left to buy such gifts.
Look how much it already recovered from the lows! 4%
Tells it all. All smart traders running after CEF.

Again ... with CEF you can sleep like a baby, best investment after coins.

AGoldhamster
04-08-2009, 12:14 PM
I would have hard time sleeping if I am in all bullion and gold stocks tripple, but my gold coins are up only 50%.
greenbeard - just let us know companies, shares, markets, (long) ETFs ... which lost less than CEF, besides gold, in recent 1-2 years!

Looking forward to your list!

greenbeard
04-08-2009, 12:27 PM
My point is that if the bull market in gold continues stocks will outpreform. If you bought gold stocks in Nov. you would have doubled you money so far. Don't get me wrong, there is a place for all gold vehicles. Just going all out bullion, or all out CEF may not be the best way to go for most people.


greenbeard - just let us know companies, shares, markets, (long) ETFs ... which lost less than CEF, besides gold, in recent 1-2 years!

Looking forward to your list!

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 12:28 PM
Thanks for the kind comments. I'm sure I do come across as pretty ignorant after losing 7% in one day... I definitely feel that way about myself today. I'm not a trader by any stretch of the imagination, just a person trying to figure it all out after losing too much on mutual funds (which were supposed to be safe) and finding that all the "expert" financial advisers out there could do was sell mutual funds. I bought CEF on the advice of a trusted family member who studies this stuff. Everything I read about CEF gave me confidence in the safety of my investment, never came across anything about premiums prior to purchasing. Hopefully it will all wash out in the end.

We're all in this crazy mess together, the world is a crazy place right now, so I appreciate the patience and expertise of those out there like Cyclist and MK who can share their experience with us. Some lessons are learned the hard way, unfortunately.


Please check out the link below and notice the swings in premium and discount in the CEF. Since 2000/2001 one we have only had premiums. Yet back in the 1990's when gold was shunned it mostly traded at a discount.

MK

http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/displayChartData.asp?name=Central+Fund+of+Canada&ticker=CEF&MFID=3653&hdrtxt=Premium%2FDiscount+History&qsChart=type%3DETFCv2%26id%3D3653%26w%3D500px%26h% 3D200px%26dtatyp%3Dpremdiscall&dtatyp=premdiscall

CaptainJack
04-08-2009, 12:35 PM
You cant go wrong buying CEF around 10. Excellent entry point, medium and long term. If your looking short term, give it a few days, let gold establish a clear direction. As silver goes more with the main markets, we need to see if 8000 is really being challenged, or this is a top out, rounding back down top at 8000, back to newer lows, or we bust through 8000 this week, and on to newer ground. Not a clear time to be jumping into CEF basically. But look at the 1 year chart. You can find worse entries.

Bluebonnet
04-08-2009, 12:39 PM
Think of CEF like of coins!
One of the best investments you can have.
Forget the noise. MK is 100% right.

BTW: Smart traders just always have some funds left to buy such gifts.
Look how much it already recovered from the lows! 4%
Tells it all. All smart traders running after CEF.

Again ... with CEF you can sleep like a baby, best investment after coins.

Thanks MK and AGH for your comments. It always feels better to get a little reassurance from the voices of reason. I wish I had saved some funds to cash in on the bargain, but c'est la vie. So glad to see you back AGH. Missed you!

Bluebonnet
04-08-2009, 12:44 PM
Please check out the link below and notice the swings in premium and discount in the CEF. Since 2000/2001 one we have only had premiums. Yet back in the 1990's when gold was shunned it mostly traded at a discount.

MK

http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/displayChartData.asp?name=Central+Fund+of+Canada&ticker=CEF&MFID=3653&hdrtxt=Premium%2FDiscount+History&qsChart=type%3DETFCv2%26id%3D3653%26w%3D500px%26h% 3D200px%26dtatyp%3Dpremdiscall&dtatyp=premdiscall

Very helpful! Thank you!

greenbeard
04-08-2009, 12:45 PM
Short holiday weeks like this one should be ignored. The trend one way or the other will resume next week.


You cant go wrong buying CEF around 10. Excellent entry point, medium and long term. If your looking short term, give it a few days, let gold establish a clear direction. As silver goes more with the main markets, we need to see if 8000 is really being challenged, or this is a top out, rounding back down top at 8000, back to newer lows, or we bust through 8000 this week, and on to newer ground. Not a clear time to be jumping into CEF basically. But look at the 1 year chart. You can find worse entries.

skylab
04-08-2009, 12:46 PM
Where the #$%! are these big jumps in the dow coming from, dammit? Is there actual news pushing it?

digbird
04-08-2009, 12:46 PM
Thanks MK and AGH for your comments. It always feels better to get a little reassurance from the voices of reason. I wish I had saved some funds to cash in on the bargain, but c'est la vie. So glad to see you back AGH. Missed you!


My first post here. I'm in the same boat as Bluebonnet. I had taken the time to do all the Due Dil.. corresponded with the company, and made the plunge. Like getting kicked in the groin as they are issueing new shares. AT least the volume is high. Should have stuck with XGD in hindsight.

horton99
04-08-2009, 02:07 PM
Anyone have an opinion about the effect of a newly implemented uptick rule on reverse ETF. I think I know the answer, but am particularly concerned about PST and TBT. Would treasury shorting fall under the same uptick rule as equity shorting?

rtsang
04-08-2009, 02:15 PM
Thanks for the kind comments. I'm sure I do come across as pretty ignorant after losing 7% in one day... I definitely feel that way about myself today. I'm not a trader by any stretch of the imagination, just a person trying to figure it all out after losing too much on mutual funds (which were supposed to be safe) and finding that all the "expert" financial advisers out there could do was sell mutual funds. I bought CEF on the advice of a trusted family member who studies this stuff. Everything I read about CEF gave me confidence in the safety of my investment, never came across anything about premiums prior to purchasing. Hopefully it will all wash out in the end.

We're all in this crazy mess together, the world is a crazy place right now, so I appreciate the patience and expertise of those out there like Cyclist and MK who can share their experience with us. Some lessons are learned the hard way, unfortunately.

You got the Central Fund of Canada? Technically speaking, GET OUT NOW! Take a look at the weekly chart and you will know.

Add: The fund reached a short term bottom (maybe 2 weeks), wait for that to get out.

Zephaniah
04-08-2009, 02:25 PM
You got the Central Fund of Canada? Technically speaking, GET OUT NOW! Take a look at the weekly chart and you will know.

Some of us are not so technically savvy... kindly explain. Others see a buying opportunity - what do you see? TIA

errantson
04-08-2009, 02:34 PM
You got the Central Fund of Canada? Technically speaking, GET OUT NOW! Take a look at the weekly chart and you will know.

Add: The fund reached a short term bottom (maybe 2 weeks), wait for that to get out.

Please explain.

rtsang
04-08-2009, 02:39 PM
Please explain.

Long term not good to hold (I mean the next 3 months), but short term it reach bottom (it may rally for 2 weeks from now), and use this to get out if you own it.

rtsang
04-08-2009, 02:43 PM
Go to www.stockcharts.com

Type CEF for symbol and you sees the daily chart. Change the combo box to weekly chart for intermediate to long term. And you will see the big trend is going down. I measure the short term trend using my own algorithm which I can't show you.

greenbeard
04-08-2009, 02:47 PM
Long term for most people is years. I do not know anyone who is buy gold assets for the short term (<1 year).


Long term not good to hold (I mean the next 3 months), but short term it reach bottom (it may rally for 2 weeks from now), and use this to get out if you own it.

AGoldhamster
04-08-2009, 02:50 PM
Once more re CEF - this is the best longterm holding if (for whatever reasons) you don't want to have physical in your portfolio.
It's a longterm holding like coins. And it's the most trusted precious metals ETF among gold and silver professionals. Da premium on both tells it all. Search for the premium in GLD or SLV! CEF and GTU in contrary to GLD or SLV which are again and again rumored to be under control of da cabal.

Shortterm CEF will follow the movements of gold, no matter whether down or up. For a few days maybe it will slightly outperform gold until the lost premium will be back to where it was before todays plunge.

So for shortterm specs there are better choices.
For longterm purposes though one of a few PM ETFs, besides GTU, to be trusted.

Also these type of plunges happened again and again over the years.
The same as with coins. Hence it's just noise, to be ignored.
Hence for specs - there are other choices.
Hope this makes it clear for those not sure when to invest in CEF and when not and on how to deal with these type of plunges.

Mike W
04-08-2009, 02:54 PM
Once more re CEF - this is the best longterm holding if (for whatever reasons) you don't want to have physical in your portfolio.
It's a longterm holding like coins. And it's the most trusted precious metals ETF among gold and silver professionals. Da premium on both tells it all. Search for the premium in GLD or SLV! CEF and GTU in contrary to GLD or SLV which are again and again rumored to be under control of da cabal.

Shortterm CEF will follow the movements of gold, no matter whether down or up. For a few days maybe it will slightly outperform gold until the lost premium will be back to where it was before todays plunge.

So for shortterm specs there are better choices.
For longterm purposes though the only one, besides GTU, to be trusted.

Hey, AG:

For Canadians who upon sale will be converting back to $CAD, do you have any concerns about this being traded in $USD?

Thanks for your input!

Ciao,

rtsang
04-08-2009, 02:55 PM
Once more re CEF - this is the best longterm holding if (for whatever reasons) you don't want to have physical in your portfolio.
It's a longterm holding like coins. And it's the most trusted precious metals ETF among gold and silver professionals. Da premium on both tells it all. Search for the premium in GLD or SLV! CEF and GTU in contrary to GLD or SLV which are again and again rumored to be under control of da cabal.

Shortterm CEF will follow the movements of gold, no matter whether down or up. For a few days maybe it will slightly outperform gold until the lost premium will be back to where it was before todays plunge.

So for shortterm specs there are better choices.
For longterm purposes though one of a few PM ETFs, besides GTU, to be trusted.

So you mean CEF is better than GLD/SLV for less fee and storage location?

kukucat
04-08-2009, 03:19 PM
Cyclist,

Are you still expecting a sharp drop to 7400 for the near term?

Maybe for tommorrow ?

Thanks

lowcommotion
04-08-2009, 03:20 PM
Hey, AG:

For Canadians who upon sale will be converting back to $CAD, do you have any concerns about this being traded in $USD?

Thanks for your input!

Ciao,

I buy it on Toronto in my Itrade RRSP account
in Canadian dollars. It doen't trade in US dollars
on the TSX so you shouldn't have a problem.
Trades in US dollars on AMEX. Hope that helps.
CEF.A is the symbol on TSX

texarcana
04-08-2009, 03:59 PM
why did gold hit its interday NY high at exactly 1:00:00 pm? $889.90

it rose to this all day and fell the rest of the day.

redsea
04-08-2009, 04:43 PM
Doesn't he have this backwards. "When a gold/gold stock (G/GS) ratio is climbing on a chart, it means the top number is outperforming the bottom number. In the case of a climbing G/GS ratio, for example, the gold stocks, as represented by the particular index, are either rising faster than gold or falling slower than gold in order for the G/GS ratio to rise. Conversely, when a ratio is falling, it means the bottom number is outperforming the top. For a G/GS ratio this happens when gold rises faster than the index gold stocks or, far more typically, when gold falls more slowly than the basket of gold stocks"

When the ratio is rising, gold is rising faster than gold stocks, or gold is falling slower than gold stocks. Etc.

Where can I learn about this. Thanks for ur good information

mosullivan
04-08-2009, 05:01 PM
http://www.etfconnect.com/

Go here and type in CEF and click. Next page, there is a link to the premium discount history.

The major difference is that CEF accounts for its holdings (w an indep. Audit Committee) as a closed end fund trades at a disc or premium. Since 01 has mainly been a premium. If you are looking to "swing trade" just look at the history and when the premium is over 10 and esp 15%, you should have all the answers in your face

Aside from holding tangible, this, IMO, is a good option. Been around since 1960s.

I wrote this up on my site as well; if you want more info. go here to #5 http://crisissurvivalguide.com/?page_id=143

P.S. This is my favorite "non" palpable gold and silver holding. But its not the same as taking possession. Coin in hand means no intermediary.

redsea
04-08-2009, 05:05 PM
Long term for most people is years. I do not know anyone who is buy gold assets for the short term (<1 year).

Originally Posted by rtsang
Long term not good to hold (I mean the next 3 months), but short term it reach bottom (it may rally for 2 weeks from now), and use this to get out if you own it.

I agree with greenbeard in the long and short term periods. I need some one to settel this point
Thanks

MetalsKing
04-08-2009, 08:05 PM
http://www.etfconnect.com/

Go here and type in CEF and click. Next page, there is a link to the premium discount history.

The major difference is that CEF accounts for its holdings (w an indep. Audit Committee) as a closed end fund trades at a disc or premium. Since 01 has mainly been a premium. If you are looking to "swing trade" just look at the history and when the premium is over 10 and esp 15%, you should have all the answers in your face

Aside from holding tangible, this, IMO, is a good option. Been around since 1960s.

I wrote this up on my site as well; if you want more info. go here to #5 http://crisissurvivalguide.com/?page_id=143

P.S. This is my favorite "non" palpable gold and silver holding. But its not the same as taking possession. Coin in hand means no intermediary.

GTU (Central gold trust) is also a good choice IMO.

MK

Bluebonnet
04-08-2009, 08:51 PM
Once more re CEF - this is the best longterm holding if (for whatever reasons) you don't want to have physical in your portfolio.
It's a longterm holding like coins. And it's the most trusted precious metals ETF among gold and silver professionals. Da premium on both tells it all. Search for the premium in GLD or SLV! CEF and GTU in contrary to GLD or SLV which are again and again rumored to be under control of da cabal.

That was why I purchased CEF - it seemed the safest option. I am curious what the thoughts and opinions are on Perth Mint Certificates, as another alternative to holding large amounts of physical gold or silver?

fl57caveman
04-08-2009, 09:28 PM
why did gold hit its interday NY high at exactly 1:00:00 pm? $889.90

it rose to this all day and fell the rest of the day.
that was the pre-arranged signal to start shorting & dumping..didn't you get the memo?

texarcana
04-08-2009, 10:02 PM
no f******g shit.

that was the pre-arranged signal to start shorting & dumping..didn't you get the memo?

errantson
04-08-2009, 10:15 PM
BlueBonnet,

CEF is the very best option for cash retention and potential earnings beyond physical. It is beyond safe. The best of the rest of the field is a distant second. Stay way from Perth certificates.

mosullivan
04-08-2009, 10:45 PM
GTU (Central gold trust) is also a good choice IMO.

MK"

I agree with you. For owning gold bullion is a good option.

If you like CEF, then is hard to argue with GTU.

In case you weren't aware, At GTU, John Embry is trustee and co-chair, along with the Spicers who run Central Fund of Canada If you look at both sites, you can see both are bare bones and down to business....same look.

errantson
04-09-2009, 07:54 AM
GTU has 192,673 ounces of gold bullion and 4,981 Gold Certificates for a total holding of 197,654 ounces. The market cap of GTU including recent level premium of 30.9% is only $252,590,250.

The Central Fund of Canada holds 1,049,328 ounces of Gold and 52,460,793 ounces of silver bullion. CEF holds no Gold Certificates and holds gold silver at a 1 / 50 ratio. It’s market cap including premium is just over $2 Billion. And premium is now around 11%. These numbers do not reflect the gold that will be bought with the revenue generated by the recent stock sale.


GTU is very good, but its not CEF IMHO.

abcd1234
04-09-2009, 08:31 AM
GTU has 192,673 ounces of gold bullion and 4,981 Gold Certificates for a total holding of 197,654 ounces. The market cap of GTU including recent level premium of 30.9% is only $252,590,250.

The Central Fund of Canada holds 1,049,328 ounces of Gold and 52,460,793 ounces of silver bullion. CEF holds no Gold Certificates and holds gold silver at a 1 / 50 ratio. It’s market cap including premium is just over $2 Billion. And premium is now around 11%. These numbers do not reflect the gold that will be bought with the revenue generated by the recent stock sale.


GTU is very good, but its not CEF IMHO.

Nor does it reflect the silver about to be purchased. It is very important to note that dealer silver inventories at the CRIMEX have declined by over 10% in the past week. Gartman has alerted his clients that silver is about to go into backwardation (a MAJOR event) and that silver is currently very, very close to good solid support.

Silver is going to end up much, much, much higher. With CEF buying silver at a ratio of 1:50 it is actually buying more silver percentage wise than gold (per the existing ratio).

errantson
04-09-2009, 08:44 AM
Did we ever find a real time chart? My search has not produced.

FoxTrot
04-09-2009, 08:55 AM
Slaughtered this morning on the Wells news... A buy at 75??

argentine
04-09-2009, 09:36 AM
Anyone thinking of buying FAZ here?

Bluebonnet
04-09-2009, 10:23 AM
Change of topic - can anyone recommend some good natural gas stocks? I see that Cyclist likes HNU, but that isn't available on eTrade.

MetalsKing
04-09-2009, 10:26 AM
Change of topic - can anyone recommend some good natural gas stocks? I see that Cyclist likes HNU, but that isn't available on eTrade.

Yes it is on the OTC market, try symbol HZBNF, trading around 1.50. It's not as liquid so use limit orders. I own it.

MK

skylab
04-09-2009, 10:27 AM
Anyone thinking of buying FAZ here?

Way ahead of you, I bought some yesterday!

(dammit!!!)

tcg1022
04-09-2009, 10:30 AM
Yes it is on the OTC market, try symbol HZBNF, trading around 1.50. It's not as liquid so use limit orders. I own it.

MK

I looked into that and the volume is ridiculously low. That kept me from buying in. Seems to me when you are ready to get out you may have some problems if you need to dump it quickly. Am I missing something?

MetalsKing
04-09-2009, 10:33 AM
I looked into that and the volume is ridiculously low. That kept me from buying in. Seems to me when you are ready to get out you may have some problems if you need to dump it quickly. Am I missing something?

This is more of an intermediate term hold for me so I will not try a quick trade like I do with the HNU, HGU, or others I "trade". I understand your reasoning.

MK

Bluebonnet
04-09-2009, 10:37 AM
This is more of an intermediate term hold for me so I will not try a quick trade like I do with the HNU, HGU, or others I "trade". I understand your reasoning.

MK

Thanks, MK. Would HGU be a better option? Not seeing that one on eTrade either. At what price will you sell HNU?

tcg1022
04-09-2009, 10:43 AM
I just dont like the feeling of being "trapped" into something.

A question I have and looked into but cant really find a direct answer. I see Cyclist throwing all these H stocks out there on the TO exchange can you tell me what each of these are? I know they are gold, oil, gas, miners(I thnk) etc. but there are some I could not find a profile or info on. Anyone have a list of what these are and if I am correct on what I have. I am sure there are others that have this question also but were afraid to ask:D . Can someone answer these for me and others so we will have it documented here on the thread?

HOU-(oil)
HNU-(NG)
HGU
HXD
HBU
HGD
anymore?

Thanks guys and gals

Bluebonnet
04-09-2009, 10:47 AM
I just dont like the feeling of being "trapped" into something.

A question I have and looked into but cant really find a direct answer. I see Cyclist throwing all these H stocks out there on the TO exchange can you tell me what each of these are? I know they are gold, oil, gas, miners(I thnk) etc. but there are some I could not find a profile or info on. Anyone have a list of what these are and if I am correct on what I have. I am sure there are others that have this question also but were afraid to ask:D . Can someone answer these for me and others so we will have it documented here on the thread?

HOU-(oil)
HNU-(NG)
HGU
HXD
HBU
HGD
anymore?

Thanks guys and gals

Great question! I know another one of the stocks he likes is POU which is PRMRF here. Would love to know the answer on the others.

SparkyF7
04-09-2009, 10:50 AM
HOU- 2x crude up
HEU - 2x energy equities up
HNU- 2x natural gas up
HGU - 2x gold equities up
HXD - 2x short the TSX 60 index
HBU - 2x comex gold up
HGD - 2x gold equities down (short)
+ many others

The "U" indicated up and the "D" indicated down.

Go to http://www.hbpetfs.com/fundSummary.asp for details on the Horizon Betapro funds

goose1
04-09-2009, 10:50 AM
I just dont like the feeling of being "trapped" into something.

A question I have and looked into but cant really find a direct answer. I see Cyclist throwing all these H stocks out there on the TO exchange can you tell me what each of these are? I know they are gold, oil, gas, miners(I thnk) etc. but there are some I could not find a profile or info on. Anyone have a list of what these are and if I am correct on what I have. I am sure there are others that have this question also but were afraid to ask:D . Can someone answer these for me and others so we will have it documented here on the thread?

HOU-(oil)
HNU-(NG)
HGU
HXD
HBU
HGD
anymore?

Thanks guys and gals

HGU - Long the HUI stocks
HXD - Short the TSX
HBU - Long gold bullion
HGD - Short the HUI stocks

Panama Mike
04-09-2009, 10:52 AM
I looked into that and the volume is ridiculously low. That kept me from buying in. Seems to me when you are ready to get out you may have some problems if you need to dump it quickly. Am I missing something?

I am in UNG, right now - it was the best alternaative I could find. If anyone knows a better one, I'd be happy to hear about it.

I just took a 9% profit on DXO; should I wait for next week for Cyclists low for oil?

goose1
04-09-2009, 10:54 AM
Here is the Horizons website.


http://www.hbpetfs.com/fundSummary.asp

horton99
04-09-2009, 10:54 AM
At marketwatch.com - upper right hand corner is a search that will drop down as you type the ticker. Type hxd and it will have CA:HXD in the drop and tell you what it is.:)



I just dont like the feeling of being "trapped" into something.

A question I have and looked into but cant really find a direct answer. I see Cyclist throwing all these H stocks out there on the TO exchange can you tell me what each of these are? I know they are gold, oil, gas, miners(I thnk) etc. but there are some I could not find a profile or info on. Anyone have a list of what these are and if I am correct on what I have. I am sure there are others that have this question also but were afraid to ask:D . Can someone answer these for me and others so we will have it documented here on the thread?

HOU-(oil)
HNU-(NG)
HGU
HXD
HBU
HGD
anymore?

Thanks guys and gals

horton99
04-09-2009, 10:59 AM
I am in UNG and PWE for natural gas play.

Change of topic - can anyone recommend some good natural gas stocks? I see that Cyclist likes HNU, but that isn't available on eTrade.

texarcana
04-09-2009, 11:07 AM
cyclist or others,
the 1 month gold lease rate has actually dropped below 0.00% and is now at -0.15%, the climbed when the price dropped to $700 last november and have been in a steady down trend......below 0, means they are actually paying people to borrow the gold?

what do you think this means in the big picture?

http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html

pezzodimerda
04-09-2009, 11:10 AM
cyclist or others,
the 1 month gold lease rate has actually dropped below 0.00% and is now at -0.15%, the climbed when the price dropped to $700 last november and have been in a steady down trend......below 0, means they are actually paying people to borrow the gold?

what do you think this means in the big picture?

http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html

backwardation baby!

texarcana
04-09-2009, 11:22 AM
backwardation baby!

if you look at the bottom of the chart page, the long term chart show the same steep drop in 1998 1/2...before the big spike in the price of gold from $255 to $325, 30% increase, which crushed alot of shorts.

sure seems like a leading indicator that gold is about to surge!

I don't see eviidence anywhere that the lease rates have ever been this low before, since 1998 anyways.

if they are willing to pay people to lease gold, this seems to mean they are willing to pay people to go and short gold to try to counteract the surge that they anticipate?

wow, the US economy is done as we have known it.......amazing. Huge adjustment in standards of living, we are about to witness in the next few years.

Bluebonnet
04-09-2009, 11:35 AM
I am in UNG and PWE for natural gas play.

Bought a few shares of UNG. Wishing everyone good luck today!

anodos
04-09-2009, 11:49 AM
Could anyone direct me to links hat explain 'backwardation' and its effects? I've read several authors but they seem to be arguing more than explaining. Thanks

horton99
04-09-2009, 11:55 AM
I know that cyclist would recommend dollar cost averaging in. Maybe another bite Monday on a dip, Then a couple more bites before end of next week. He is currently in 50% and anticipating a low during the next week.

Bought a few shares of UNG. Wishing everyone good luck today!

Bluebonnet
04-09-2009, 12:26 PM
I know that cyclist would recommend dollar cost averaging in. Maybe another bite Monday on a dip, Then a couple more bites before end of next week. He is currently in 50% and anticipating a low during the next week.

Good advice - thanks for the reminder!

titusjma
04-09-2009, 12:47 PM
Hello All,
I am trying to figure out if I can follow the TSX Index real time in my trading account Quotes section.
I can do that for the DOW using DJI
DJI:(Dow Jones Global Indexes) Dow Jones Industrial Average
Don't know what to use for the TSX.
Your help is much appreciated.

pezzodimerda
04-09-2009, 01:09 PM
Could anyone direct me to links hat explain 'backwardation' and its effects? I've read several authors but they seem to be arguing more than explaining. Thanks

You bet! Antal Fekete is a leading expert on the issue. Surf around as this issue has come up before, in fact we entered such stage once before and Fekete acknowledged we would see it soon again and it might be here to stay forever.

http://www.professorfekete.com/default.asp

rtsang
04-09-2009, 01:39 PM
I think silver/gold/mining stock is a good buy today and next week, accumulating. Any comments? One worries me is the weekly chart doesn't looked good. Bought AGQ/SLV yesterday and 2 days ago and gaining marginal profit. Also, Yen seems bottoming, waiting for entry point.

clambake
04-09-2009, 01:48 PM
Hello All,
I am trying to figure out if I can follow the TSX Index real time in my trading account Quotes section.
I can do that for the DOW using DJI
DJI:(Dow Jones Global Indexes) Dow Jones Industrial Average
Don't know what to use for the TSX.
Your help is much appreciated.

Try CA:89199000 or 89199000

anodos
04-09-2009, 01:49 PM
You bet! Antal Fekete is a leading expert on the issue. Surf around as this issue has come up before, in fact we entered such stage once before and Fekete acknowledged we would see it soon again and it might be here to stay forever.

http://www.professorfekete.com/default.asp

Thank you very much Pezzo! very useful..

titusjma
04-09-2009, 01:55 PM
Try CA:89199000 or 89199000
Thanks clambake but I can't figure out how to use this
CA:89199000 or 89199000
Do you mean simply paste it into the quotes section just like any other symbol for stocks? Does not work :(

rjcjid
04-09-2009, 02:58 PM
Anybody watching srs?

Sparkles
04-09-2009, 03:06 PM
Anybody watching srs?
...yes, thru' the tears.

Gold Clause
04-09-2009, 03:32 PM
Would take some cajones, but at 33.91 it may make you very happy come Monday morning! Keep your chin up.
Whoa, had to edit...it's already back at 34.15. Love that SRS.

nofixedaddress
04-09-2009, 03:57 PM
Bear market rally ... bought SRS @ 32.50 , enough dry powder to cost average this cheeky bull down further :)

clambake
04-09-2009, 03:57 PM
Thanks clambake but I can't figure out how to use this
CA:89199000 or 89199000
Do you mean simply paste it into the quotes section just like any other symbol for stocks? Does not work :(

Almost every system uses different symbols for indexes. Big Charts uses CA:89199000 for the TSX. Try doing a symbol search through your brokers site for S&P/TSX

sanremo
04-10-2009, 12:30 PM
i remember a post saying gold is in the launch pad for monday o tuesday last week.

houston we have a problem......

RL100
04-12-2009, 06:17 PM
Cyclist,

If there is a major sell off in June +/- some days as many expect. Do you think commodities such as copper (Quadra) / aluminum / Steel etc will sell off as well? or hold their value?

OnlyA
04-12-2009, 11:29 PM
Cyclist I will post my question also in this thread.

And what are Your feelings about POU? Midterm outlook preffered. (Im considering to go in on Tuesday)

Thanks for Your time

horton99
04-12-2009, 11:54 PM
You misunderstood, those were the days to buy. As of right now that call was still a good one. That was the low. Rocket has not been rolled of the launch pad yet.:D

i remember a post saying gold is in the launch pad for monday o tuesday last week.

houston we have a problem......

HeavyMeddle
04-13-2009, 01:05 AM
You misunderstood, those were the days to buy. As of right now that call was still a good one. That was the low. Rocket has not been rolled of the launch pad yet.:D

Agreed. Almost up $10 in Asia so far, with the gold:silver ratio contracting... launching pad may be as early as tomorrow!!

Cyclist
04-13-2009, 08:53 AM
Cyclist I will post my question also in this thread.

And what are Your feelings about POU? Midterm outlook preffered. (Im considering to go in on Tuesday)

Thanks for Your time

Might be a little weaker till the end of the week,it should be the buy point.
US buck has topped out ,Ag products will rise

SpiderMan
04-13-2009, 09:11 AM
Might be a little weaker till the end of the week,it should be the buy point.
US buck has topped out ,Ag products will rise

has it already peaked?
so the stocks will be rising?!

you aren't shorting the market into April 23?

SparkyF7
04-13-2009, 09:26 AM
Cyclist: What is your current view on HXU/HXD?

MetalsKing
04-13-2009, 09:32 AM
Cyclist: What is your current view on HXU/HXD?

And CYCLIST are you adding to NAt Gas (hnu) today with the new lows?

MK

migold
04-13-2009, 10:18 AM
Cyclist, your thoughts on ^BKX filling the Jan gap to $45? Is there time, given the GM situation? Thanks,

a5fung
04-13-2009, 10:46 AM
Whats the best way to hold agriculture commodities on the TSX for the long term? I know about HAU, but is there a non-leveraged ETF that is good for long term holding? Thanks.

Panama Mike
04-13-2009, 12:27 PM
Whats the best way to hold agriculture commodities on the TSX for the long term? I know about HAU, but is there a non-leveraged ETF that is good for long term holding? Thanks.

I have that question about Nat Gas. I have UNG, but want something to hold over the summer, please.

Dutch
04-13-2009, 02:12 PM
I have that question about Nat Gas. I have UNG, but want something to hold over the summer, please.

Any of you have thoughts about the agriculture ETF "MOO"?

chrisiden
04-13-2009, 04:35 PM
i have mostly Platinum physical eagles..
would this be a good time to trade for physical Silver or Gold?
the ratio for silver seems good, but what do i know?:confused:
this is why i am here asking away...:)

any advice Cyclist is greatly appreciated or from the audience viewing..
thanks again...
c

BellRockMiner
04-13-2009, 06:28 PM
Did we ever find a real time chart? My search has not produced.

Real time chart is available at goldprice.org. click on the gold chart in the upper left corner and then gold/silver ratio.

Hajduk
04-13-2009, 06:41 PM
Cyclist, you haven't given your opinion on gold or silver lately. Where are we headed with spot and where are we headed with SSRI and AUY?
Thank you Sir

FoxTrot
04-14-2009, 08:53 AM
Natural gas on the NYMEX ended the day higher on Monday despite hitting a new 6 and a half year low early in the open-pit session. With equities and crude in the negative regions, natural gas slipped down from Thursday’s settle during the Easter long weekend in the overnight market and began Monday’s open-pit session approximately 7 cents down before trading down to the intra-day low of $3.504 US/MMBtu, the lowest price for natgas since September 26, 2002. The $3.50 level has been a very important support level since the contract broke through $4 and the ‘one-touch’ the contract made this morning managed to push the contract-up throughout the afternoon on technical buying where it marked an intra-day high of $3.66 US/MMBtu with in the last half-hour of trading. Natgas for May delivery settled up 1.8 cents or 0.5 percent at $3.628 US/MMBtu. In Canada the AECO front month contract traded down 4 cents to settle at $3.367 CAD/GJ.

The first of the forecasts for the 2009 hurricane season are being rolled-out into the public eye and over all are calling for a much milder season compared to the devastating 2008 season which saw 16 named storms half of which were Hurricanes including a handful that knocked out U.S. offshore oil and gas production and damaged refineries on shore. The widely respected forecast group, Colorado State University’s weather team has called for 12 named storms, including six hurricanes compared to the Weather Research Center of Houston Texas with the lowest prediction for the number of tropical storms this season at seven, with up to four of those expected to become hurricanes. Early predictions for Thursday’s EIA storage report are calling for a build within a 5 to 20 Bcf range. The CFTC released their weekly Commitment of Traders Report on Friday for the end of Tuesday April 7th, which showed NYMEX natgas total open interest for both futures and options increased by 9,637 contracts to 879,699 contracts. The non-commercial or speculative positions remained weighted to the short side, with the non-commercial shorts holding 31,029 more contracts than the longs, according to the CFTC.

tcg1022
04-14-2009, 10:24 AM
Relative strength

Staying in gold versus silver until around April 23,Switch from gold into
crude second week of April.


Does this still apply?

Who all made the switch last week?

TIA

Panama Mike
04-14-2009, 12:15 PM
Does this still apply?

Who all made the switch last week?

TIA


I didn't "switch", but bought DXO and sold and repurchased it a couple of times last week. I am currently holding it this week and waiting to buy more to hold through the summer. I anticipate some activity in the Middle East, possibly as early as May, that will drastically increase the price of oil. I don't have a letter from Netanyahu or anything, but I'm fairly confident that something will happen. :)

tcg1022
04-14-2009, 03:22 PM
I didn't "switch", but bought DXO and sold and repurchased it a couple of times last week. I am currently holding it this week and waiting to buy more to hold through the summer. I anticipate some activity in the Middle East, possibly as early as May, that will drastically increase the price of oil. I don't have a letter from Netanyahu or anything, but I'm fairly confident that something will happen. :)

Bringing this thread back to the top!!!!!!!


I agree something may happen but think OIL will rise regardless. Summer months are coming and oil always seem to rise in the summer. I am wondering now that if the US Navy putting a bullet through three pirates heads the other day might induce something that may cause oil to rise.

Also Gold to silver ratio is contracting today. If I am correct that means PMs prices should rise accordingly.

nofixedaddress
04-14-2009, 03:33 PM
Bear market rally ... bought SRS @ 32.50 , enough dry powder to cost average this cheeky bull down further :)
Profit ... anyone else holding overnight? Looking at my laptop , 3 years old ... longest I've held one ... let's see how Intel is holding up.

SparkyF7
04-14-2009, 04:26 PM
FWIW - Canadian financial stocks have had a great run since early March (the etf's I follow include XFN and HFU). Are they getting a bit toppy? Market psychology suggests they may take a breather here and several talking heads in the media are now making comments about stepping aside for a few weeks to let things settle before another up leg - some calling for a 10% pullback. The banks started very strong again this morning but couldn't sustain it by noon. After a dip and then another challenge to the upside they seemed to have lost steam into the close. I took a downside position (HFD) late morning and have chosen to hold it over night to see if I can extend the gains.

This is not investment advice. DYODD.

tcg1022
04-15-2009, 11:04 AM
Bringin it back to the top!!!!!

Just took another bite out of CRUDE MMMM tastes pretty good too!

horton99
04-15-2009, 11:24 AM
1st bite of crude in over a month for me. Tastes like chicken.MMMM

Babylon Now
04-15-2009, 11:58 AM
Banks short term oversold going into expiration. 300 FAS Calls, EOW!!!

tcg1022
04-15-2009, 01:48 PM
1st bite of crude in over a month for me. Tastes like chicken.MMMM


All Aboard!!!!!

This train is about to leave the station! 48 hours and counting........

abcd1234
04-15-2009, 01:50 PM
All Aboard!!!!!

This train is about to leave the station! 48 hours and counting........

Yeah, but there is that gap at $2.70. I am wondering if it will get filled...then we go.

digbird
04-15-2009, 01:52 PM
Anybody have a sense of direction for gold and silver? Any turn dates or Buy-Hold or Sell recommendations? Thx.

rtsang
04-15-2009, 01:58 PM
I expect gold/silver/mining companies will rally next week. I have bought silver and mining ETF last week and got some small profit, still holding.

digbird
04-15-2009, 02:13 PM
I expect gold/silver/mining companies will rally next week. I have bought silver and mining ETF last week and got some small profit, still holding.


I'm still holding, XGD-TSX and CEF.A-TSX albeit a tad underwater. Thanks for your input.

tcg1022
04-15-2009, 02:13 PM
Yeah, but there is that gap at $2.70. I am wondering if it will get filled...then we go.

Nothing would make me happier than to buy a few thousand shares at 2.70;)

skylab
04-15-2009, 02:27 PM
All Aboard!!!!!

This train is about to leave the station! 48 hours and counting........

Why 48 hours? What's gonna happen?

tcg1022
04-15-2009, 03:10 PM
Why 48 hours? What's gonna happen?

Cyclist answered your question in the other thread;)

Expecting gold shares (HGU)to hit a high next week Tuesday
Crude to make a low tomorrow or Friday in and around 5.80 for the HOU.
NG looks like it made its lows this week.Agricultural stocks should do very well
from this week on IMO as do home building stocks as per example NBD on the TSX.All is well,just busy:cool:


Choo CHoo!!:D

tcg1022
04-15-2009, 03:16 PM
Thinking about dumping my DGP for some AGQ next week. Anyone else thinking about making this type of move? From Gold to silver.

Paper only of course. The ratio has tightend over the last day or so and I have to wonder if this will continue. If I remeber correctly Cyclist seem to mention this a few weeks ago. I guess I should dig that post up and read it again;)

Comments?

SparkyF7
04-15-2009, 03:24 PM
Cyclist: What are your views on Cdn and US financials at present since they have been such a big contributor to the XIU and HXU moves up in the last 30 days?

horton99
04-15-2009, 03:30 PM
Thinking about dumping my DGP for some AGQ next week. Anyone else thinking about making this type of move? From Gold to silver.

Paper only of course. The ratio has tightend over the last day or so and I have to wonder if this will continue. If I remeber correctly Cyclist seem to mention this a few weeks ago. I guess I should dig that post up and read it again;)

Comments?

Ratio has been contracting .... flags higher spot prices coming up. Has been expanding last few minutes though as gold is rising. What it means ... I'm not sure.

rtsang
04-15-2009, 03:36 PM
Thinking about dumping my DGP for some AGQ next week. Anyone else thinking about making this type of move? From Gold to silver.

Paper only of course. The ratio has tightend over the last day or so and I have to wonder if this will continue. If I remeber correctly Cyclist seem to mention this a few weeks ago. I guess I should dig that post up and read it again;)

Comments?

No DGP this time, only bought AGQ. Silver seems running better than gold this time.

Realvalue
04-15-2009, 03:52 PM
Here's my bet on the economic confidence peak turn.
I'm riding this out with FAS then selling on Thursday 23rd at close, also keeping a 10% trailing stop.

April 13 Bank of the Ozarks, Inc.OZRK 0.52 46 cents a share
April 14 Goldman Sachs GS ? $3.39 a share
April 16 JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 0.32 06:30 am ET
April 17 BB&T Corporation BBT 0.32 Before Open
Citigroup Inc. C -0.37
Before Open
General Electric GE 0.21 Before
Open
April 20 Bank of America Corp BAC 0.03 ???
April 21 U.S. Bancorp USB 0.21 Before Open
April 22 Wells Fargo & CompanyWFC 0.23 08:00 am ET
April 23 Fifth Third Bancorp FITB -0.31 06:30 am ET
SunTrust STI -0.65 Before
Open

zoezoe
04-15-2009, 05:44 PM
Realvalue, thinking same thing also holding fas.You might want to move back an hour from close. Sad to say have a feeling this is it...started to move into cdn$
Cyclist, you gave me a heads up on aauk and nbd both doing very well..tks.

Bibiche
04-16-2009, 08:53 AM
bought 10% more in Gas nat at 3.61$ still 20% standing aside.

mad mad world
04-16-2009, 09:05 AM
bought 10% more in Gas nat at 3.61$ still 20% standing aside.

Inventory report due in 1 1/2 hr.....Lets see where price goes afterward....
is it going to test the bottom again or break the yesterday's high....interesting to see....

Bibiche
04-16-2009, 09:36 AM
Buy the rumor and sell the news. ;)
Sorry for my english.

tcg1022
04-16-2009, 10:08 AM
I like this mining stock decline and will be adding to positions modestly lower. I expect this to be a quick drop and quick move back up FWIW.

MK

I hope you had a quick finger because them suckers when down and bounced right back real quick. The ones I was wathcing anyway. I had to lower my stops on a couple as they almost hit. Looks like it was a good oppurtunity if you had buy orders in or were watching them as they fell. I guess the sudden drop in Au and Ag caused this drop?:confused:

MetalsKing
04-16-2009, 10:17 AM
I hope you had a quick finger because them suckers when down and bounced right back real quick. The ones I was wathcing anyway. I had to lower my stops on a couple as they almost hit. Looks like it was a good oppurtunity if you had buy orders in or were watching them as they fell. I guess the sudden drop in Au and Ag caused this drop?:confused:

already bought some Auy and HGU, will get more aggressive if we go lower. For me these are "several week" positions as opposed to holding a couple of days for a quick trade - perspective on what one is buying for is important. I am willing to hold through a fairly large decline while others may not be.

MK

skylab
04-16-2009, 10:36 AM
What time do the Nat Gas inventory numbers come out?

And where can you see them?

Thanks

MetalsKing
04-16-2009, 10:40 AM
up 21 BCF, est was for up 20 BCF, rallying a little from early low.

MK

mad mad world
04-16-2009, 10:40 AM
What time do the Nat Gas inventory numbers come out?

And where can you see them?

Thanks

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?

texarcana
04-16-2009, 11:47 AM
with gold at its highest monthy average ever in the first quarter of 2009 and with oil being $35-50/barrel....and having gone through with all the writedowns of the 4th quarter of 2008.... aren't gold miners all about to report record earnings?????
.....wouldn't this saned the signal to the broader market that this is a sector to be in, where there is real profit and the price of gold has never gone to $0., unlike currencies or companies/stocks.
one people pile into gold mining stocks, it will also drive the price of gold up.
once the gold price average maintains itself and the miners make profits consistently, they should then issue dividends, increasing dividends is the only evidence i know that the company is making real profits and sharing them/paying out, and not just cooking the books, and the rest of the economy is doing , in desperatio to stay alive.

MetalsKing
04-16-2009, 12:03 PM
with gold at its highest monthy average ever in the first quarter of 2009 and with oil being $35-50/barrel....and having gone through with all the writedowns of the 4th quarter of 2008.... aren't gold miners all about to report record earnings?????
.....wouldn't this saned the signal to the broader market that this is a sector to be in, where there is real profit and the price of gold has never gone to $0., unlike currencies or companies/stocks.
one people pile into gold mining stocks, it will also drive the price of gold up.
once the gold price average maintains itself and the miners make profits consistently, they should then issue dividends, increasing dividends is the only evidence i know that the company is making real profits and sharing them/paying out, and not just cooking the books, and the rest of the economy is doing , in desperatio to stay alive.

EIGHT yr cycle low in gold is due now IMO.

MK

abcd1234
04-16-2009, 12:05 PM
EIGHT yr cycle low in gold is due now IMO.

MK

doesnt Martin Armstrong talk about an 8.6 year cycle?

MetalsKing
04-16-2009, 12:12 PM
doesnt Martin Armstrong talk about an 8.6 year cycle?

Gold stocks bottom the cycle in the Fall, gold usually in first 3-4 months of the year. So IMO gold will make a higher secondary low as compared to October. Just my opinion.

MK

skylab
04-16-2009, 12:27 PM
Expecting gold shares (HGU)to hit a high next week Tuesday
Crude to make a low tomorrow or Friday in and around 5.80 for the HOU.
NG looks like it made its lows this week.Agricultural stocks should do very well
from this week on IMO as do home building stocks as per example NBD on the TSX.All is well,just busy:cool:

If HGU is to hit a high next week Tuesday, shouldn't it be rising now? Or what do you mean by high? The monthly high was $15-something a couple weeks ago. Are you expecting it to take that out by Tuesday?

texarcana
04-16-2009, 12:34 PM
latest, april 15th, Armstrong essay.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/14268132/Financial-Panics-Political-Change

tcg1022
04-16-2009, 01:01 PM
Anyone wants the Miners they better grab em today!!!! Some very attracive buys IMHO are available FWIW

DYODD FWIW

Bluebonnet
04-16-2009, 01:20 PM
Gold stocks bottom the cycle in the Fall, gold usually in first 3-4 months of the year. So IMO gold will make a higher secondary low as compared to October. Just my opinion.

MK

MK - I have a lot of respect for your opinion. I'm wondering - do you expect gold to bounce back fairly quickly if it makes this low? I am holding onto all of my CEF and would like to ride it back up to at least the break even point...hopefully. At what point do you think it would be a good time to pick up some extra shares?

Law97
04-16-2009, 01:22 PM
already bought some Auy and HGU, will get more aggressive if we go lower. For me these are "several week" positions as opposed to holding a couple of days for a quick trade - perspective on what one is buying for is important. I am willing to hold through a fairly large decline while others may not be.

MK

I bought AUY too, including after today's big drop, so cost basis for my "short hold" auy is 8.06. Today is the first day in a long (2-3 weeks) time I have not seen my auy position in the green at some point all day. I have been successfully trading auy too here lately. There's usually a bounce, but today that hasn't happened yet. There is strong support here at the 7.70-75 level.

CNBC just did a little spot on gold & GLD. Said that today's "word on the street" is the "reflation trade" namely gold and TIPS. Don't know what time warp he's in, but gold is not doing well today, even though the "reflation trade" seems to be lifting other boats. Hmm, wonder what CNBC has up its sleeve...

skylab
04-16-2009, 01:24 PM
Expecting gold shares (HGU)to hit a high next week Tuesday
Crude to make a low tomorrow or Friday in and around 5.80 for the HOU.
NG looks like it made its lows this week.Agricultural stocks should do very well
from this week on IMO as do home building stocks as per example NBD on the TSX.All is well,just busy:cool:

If HGU is to hit a high next week Tuesday, shouldn't it be rising now? Or what do you mean by high? The monthly high was $15-something a couple weeks ago. Are you expecting it to take that out by Tuesday?

Does anybody have a comment on this, and what he means by a "high".

Thanks

sydney
04-16-2009, 01:34 PM
Does anybody have a comment on this, and what he means by a "high".

Thanks

Hi skylab,

I'm curious about HGU too. I've been accumulating HGU for the last little while. We hit 16 intraday a few weeks ago and ever since then, it's been in smackdown mode.

okcgold3000
04-16-2009, 01:43 PM
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.html

Here are the gov. websites to see the report. They have a 'countdown' in seconds to the report.

MetalsKing
04-16-2009, 01:44 PM
MK - I have a lot of respect for your opinion. I'm wondering - do you expect gold to bounce back fairly quickly if it makes this low? I am holding onto all of my CEF and would like to ride it back up to at least the break even point...hopefully. At what point do you think it would be a good time to pick up some extra shares?

Who knows? I may be early buying here and this decline in the mining stocks could carry the XAU and GDX down to the Jan or March lows. I don't think it goes that low but there is that risk. My risk parameters are likely very different from yours. MK

tothemoon
04-16-2009, 03:14 PM
Cyclist,

Would you kindly let us know if the turn next week will be upwards or downward for gold and gold stocks?

Getting killed here and wanted to know if I should initiate a hedge or wait it out for the rebound next week.


Thanks,

Cyclist
04-16-2009, 03:24 PM
Cyclist,

Would you kindly let us know if the turn next week will be upwards or downward for gold and gold stocks?

Getting killed here and wanted to know if I should initiate a hedge or wait it out for the rebound next week.


Thanks,
depends whether you have juniors,seniors or run only the HGU variety.
If you only run HGU ,you should have a stoploss in place.
From the majors I only got BVN and for the rest in juniors.I think we will see a bounce very soon ,it is the strength of the bounce that will determine if I'm going to hold them.HBU is still above its last low.It will have to break for me to start hedging the goldies.

skylab
04-16-2009, 03:52 PM
So who's holding HGU overnight?

tothemoon
04-16-2009, 03:53 PM
depends whether you have juniors,seniors or run only the HGU variety.
If you only run HGU ,you should have a stoploss in place.
From the majors I only got BVN and for the rest in juniors.I think we will see a bounce very soon ,it is the strength of the bounce that will determine if I'm going to hold them.HBU is still above its last low.It will have to break for me to start hedging the goldies.

Thanks. I'm holding HGU.

Would you also provide insight into the general SM if you believe it will go down soon or continue the rally?

Best,

Cyclist
04-16-2009, 04:03 PM
Thanks. I'm holding HGU.

Would you also provide insight into the general SM if you believe it will go down soon or continue the rally?

Best,

Starting to probe the top it could be tomorrow or next week Monday/Tuesday.BKX is my flag waver

LazarusLong
04-16-2009, 10:30 PM
Anybody here ever heard of this guy, Naufal Sanaullah, at Market Commentary (http://www.naufalsanaullah.com/)?

He claims he'll have a $1M+ position in FAZ by 4/17, expecting huge growth.

Izzy a little over the top, on the mark, extra-solar? Writes a decent blog...

Just wondering, hope someone is willing to feedback...

Thanks to all for the great posts

shastasmith
04-16-2009, 10:45 PM
Anybody here ever heard of this guy, Naufal Sanaullah, at Market Commentary (http://www.naufalsanaullah.com/)?

He claims he'll have a $1M+ position in FAZ by 4/17, expecting huge growth.

Izzy a little over the top, on the mark, extra-solar? Writes a decent blog...

Just wondering, hope someone is willing to feedback...

Thanks to all for the great posts

Don't know anything about him, but going through his older posts, on March 31st, he mentions he is buying FAZ on pullbacks, around $22. Since then, FAZ went all the way down to $8.8. I hope he did not spend a million dollar then to buy FAZ...

sydney
04-17-2009, 12:16 AM
So who's holding HGU overnight?


I'm in HGU also, for better or for worse...

artful_dodger
04-17-2009, 02:03 AM
Hi Cyclist

You mentioned uranium and UUU recently. Would Denison Mines also be a good pick?

Thanks

Artful.

tcg1022
04-17-2009, 10:00 AM
Another mining stock tranche bought this morning FWIW.

MK

My boat was already loaded:rolleyes: The only thing that is putting a hurtin on me is DGP. I been contemplatin selling at least half of my shares which would result in a 400 loss but with a low/high forecast for Tues at this point it leaves me scratchin my head with indecision. I am 50/50 on my miners some are a tad underwater and some are still green from when I entered. The ones I have I consider strong and will most likely weather this storm with. I did get stopped out of BVN yeterday and then reentered:rolleyes: at least I only reeentered with one bite. At this point I am debating whether or not to sell half my DGP and buy tthat 2x silver play. Have to say I am kinda lost on what to do.

tcg1022
04-17-2009, 10:46 AM
Well my boat is being unloaded by my SL. That could be a good or bad thing. Most likely bad IMO. I think I will stand aside for a while now and let this whole thing work itself out without me risking anymore $. Nice spring day in my neck of the woods I might just go do something that does not involve numbers:D or money.....

texarcana
04-17-2009, 10:52 AM
All I am able to see is the turn date is the final right shoulder peak of the USD, and begins the final slide of the USD into June 2011. PM's doing the opposite, of course. This slow grind we have felt all week in mining stocks, I think this is what will happen with the US economy over the next several years, making profit by the general economy will be even more difficult than now, grinding away and essentially putting the US into a huge constant spirit sucking margin call!!!!......volitility will increase much more with the quantatative easing, as the currency battles heat up and go into full swing.

I think that is the big trend and investing capital aganist this is the way to go.

Just my thoughts.


latest, april 15th, Armstrong essay.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/14268132/Financial-Panics-Political-Change

horton99
04-17-2009, 11:59 AM
Exit from treasuries continues today. Is this not an early warning sign that inflation is around the corner? Or is it just reflection of consumer sentiment improving and therefore investors developing more risk appetite? Any thoughts anyone?

AuSux
04-17-2009, 01:17 PM
Well wouldn't you know it.
At the exact time I bought the miners
the downleg I had been waiting for starts
I'm selling all my Miners here for a loss before I burst my ulcer
I'll never touch these dogs again
Bye everyone , nice knowing you.

SparkyF7
04-17-2009, 02:08 PM
Cyclist: Would you be buying more HNU today at $7.37 and HOU at $6.20? I was holding out on HOU 'til $5.8x

abcd1234
04-17-2009, 03:11 PM
Well wouldn't you know it.
At the exact time I bought the miners
the downleg I had been waiting for starts
I'm selling all my Miners here for a loss before I burst my ulcer
I'll never touch these dogs again
Bye everyone , nice knowing you.

There is no surer sign that a bottom is near than when you see stuff like this....

texarcana
04-17-2009, 03:59 PM
exactly, once people figure out that the earnings of the s&P and dow are gonna grind to near nothing over the next couple of years, and cash and treasuries becomes unsafe....there is not too many places to go, except in real stuff.
the USD made the same head and shoulders pattern in 2001 and then 2006......strikingly similar.....same pattern as Armstrong shows.
by July, I will not be surpised that the US dollar slide accelerates.
I think cyclist is correct, I believe he mentioned a while back, that 3rd week in april, the turn date(+/-) is the start of the downleg down for the USD into june 2011.


There is no surer sign that a bottom is near than when you see stuff like this....

LazarusLong
04-17-2009, 10:32 PM
I knew you could...:D

Maybe old hat for the lifers, new to me, thought I'd share this (http://www.scribd.com/doc/14347469/The-Visible-Hand) link to a great read at scribd (also linked at Zero Hedge) regarding the "patriots" at the PPT. Seems Slick Willy was pretty busy there...

Zero Hedge also had another good post here (http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/suiciding-market.html), "Suiciding The Market".

FWIW

DayStar
04-18-2009, 10:37 PM
Cyclist said miners should be good long through the end of May (https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?p=591062&highlight=Cyclist+miners#post591062). Heiko Seibel, the Director of Research for Munich-based CM-Equity AG called the the timing and extent of the March 9th to April 3rd market rally
(http://www.kitco.com/ind/Davis/apr152009.html). He says, "Within a few weeks, we will see the stock lows of our lifetimes". He also says panic selling will pull down miners as well. Sentiment here on Kitco is divided as to whether gold might take a leg up or break to the downside in this coming week (starting 26 Apr 09). If gold breaks down, it will drag miners with it. If it breaks up, one would hope that miners would also go with it, though that has not always been the case recently. Should longs be looking for an exit from miners before the S&P falls off its cliff?

cherithomas
04-19-2009, 10:02 PM
The aggressive monetary policy of central banks around the world is playing havoc with the structure of the bullion market, creating a chronic shortage of gold that may soon push the metal to fresh records above $1,500 an ounce......................


for entire Article......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/5184036/Gold-price-could-hit-1500.html

cherithomas
04-20-2009, 07:06 AM
The Trend May Not Be Your Friend

The Trend Is Your Friend Until the End of the Trend



http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/04/17/the-trend-may-not-be-your-friend.aspx