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MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 09:57 AM
day of truth for gold stocks, they may be beginning a deadly decline, muy danger unless they reverse northward. DYODD and all that

MK

Will Wong
07-27-2010, 10:00 AM
day of truth for gold stocks, they may be beginning a deadly decline, muy danger unless they reverse northward. DYODD and all that

MK

Day of truth for silver too, perhaps?

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 10:01 AM
Day of truth for silver too, perhaps?

obviously for gold and silver too

Will Wong
07-27-2010, 10:04 AM
Since Cyclist made the call that long bonds have bottomed out, TBT has gone on a slow but steady march north. Bravo Cyclist! Great call!

Jayhawk
07-27-2010, 10:10 AM
From the Aden Sisters last weeks regarding gold. They think we could be in a D wave decline, but it will be a weaker sell off that other D waves down.


"this means if gold stays below $1200, a D decline is underway, and gold could fall further. Demand has been strong during weakness so it could be that gold will hold up better than prior D declines. Meanwhile, major support is the rising 65 week moving average now at $1075 for gold and $16.50 for silver. A close below $1175 for December gold and $17.25 for silver mean these levels could be tested. And if it is we should buy with both hands. Gold & silver shares are similar… the HUI index has main support at 410"

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 10:13 AM
From the Aden Sisters last weeks regarding gold. They think we could be in a D wave decline, but it will be a weaker sell off that other D waves down.


"this means if gold stays below $1200, a D decline is underway, and gold could fall further. Demand has been strong during weakness so it could be that gold will hold up better than prior D declines. Meanwhile, major support is the rising 65 week moving average now at $1075 for gold and $16.50 for silver. A close below $1175 for December gold and $17.25 for silver mean these levels could be tested. And if it is we should buy with both hands. Gold & silver shares are similar… the HUI index has main support at 410"

I think HUI has risk to 360-370

MK

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 10:20 AM
here's what's intriguing for me, the GOLD ETF has attracted huge sums and is very liquid, what if a lot of people decide to exit at the same time? and maybe the down swing could be magnified mucho more than most think? food for thought

MK

Jayhawk
07-27-2010, 10:22 AM
I think HUI has risk to 360-370

MK

Could be. Back in Feb, we cut through all those support levels like a hot knife on soft butter. I'd be shocked if 375 didn't hold. Bring it on, I've been patiently waiting to get my gold and silvers.:D

ILUVPMs
07-27-2010, 10:23 AM
here's what's intriguing for me, the GOLD ETF has attracted huge sums and is very liquid, what if a lot of people decide to exit at the same time? and maybe the down swing could be magnified mucho more than most think? food for thought

MK

Im not sure it really matters. If people want t sell there insurance then let them. Nothing has changed and we are heading down the economic abyss. Not sure why people should be concerned with golds drop as this is usual. I think we should bottom out in low 1040 area and then rise.

spgold
07-27-2010, 10:24 AM
Market and financials trying to find their path today ... with BKX flirting around 50, anyone in for FAZ or FAS ?

Will Wong
07-27-2010, 10:24 AM
here's what's intriguing for me, the GOLD ETF has attracted huge sums and is very liquid, what if a lot of people decide to exit at the same time? and maybe the down swing could be magnified mucho more than most think? food for thought

MK

In that case, do you think it is possible that the price of Goldtracks GLD rather than the other way. That would be an interesting scenario.

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 10:32 AM
Im not sure it really matters. If people want t sell there insurance then let them. Nothing has changed and we are heading down the economic abyss. Not sure why people should be concerned with golds drop as this is usual. I think we should bottom out in low 1040 area and then rise.

matters to me as I like buying when others panic and vice versa, and a 20% or so haircut of the high would "matter" to me.

MK

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 10:33 AM
Commodities Update: Natural Gas Outperforms
Precious metals have been hit with some aggressive selling this morning. In turn, gold prices have dropped 1.4% to $1166.80 per ounce and silver has slid 2.8% to $17.70 per ounce... Oil has also succumbed to some recent selling. The commodity had been up as high as $79.69 per barrel in the early going, but it is now down to $78.35 per barrel with a 0.8% loss... Natural gas prices have managed to remain in positive territory, though. The commodity was last quoted with a 0.5% gain at $4.64 per MMBtu... For a measure of the broader commodities space, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.2% at the moment

Mats Wheellander
07-27-2010, 10:34 AM
matters to me as I like buying when others panic and vice versa, and a 20% or so haircut of the high would "matter" to me.

MK


You consider a 10% drop in the USD index a loss or less so because of it's arbitrariness?

Cheers.

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 10:34 AM
I have been bullish on CRB equally weighted, if it closes below 480 I go neutral and maybe bearish, that could signal market top. FWIW and DYODD

Mk

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 10:48 AM
I have been bullish on CRB equally weighted, if it closes below 480 I go neutral and maybe bearish, that could signal market top. FWIW and DYODD

Mk

MK - you are referring to the Continuous Commodity Index, correct? Where is it currently trading? I can not find the ticker on my system.

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 10:49 AM
MK - you are referring to the Continuous Commodity Index, correct? Where is it currently trading? I can not find the ticker on my system.

I have 482.09 as last trade

sriramvr
07-27-2010, 10:49 AM
gold entering support zone 1147-1160

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 10:50 AM
gold entering support zone 1147-1160

yes it is and if that breaks it's freefall time

MK

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 10:54 AM
Wheat prices rise on trade chatter about Ukraine export delays due to prod concerns; corn up 3, beans up 1, wheat up 8

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 11:02 AM
Cyclist - do you think we will see gold break the 200DMA and free fall?

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 11:03 AM
Cyclist - do you think we will see gold break the 200DMA and free fall?

freefall to me means a decline to 1040, maybe lower FWIW

MK

sriramvr
07-27-2010, 11:07 AM
yes it is and if that breaks it's freefall time

MK

yes 1123 and then 1050

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 11:18 AM
a few weeks back there was sone interesting discussion of cycles and some huge astrological dates right here - July 26 and 27. I have to wonder if it's a top for stock market and other stuff too.

MK

Free_spirit
07-27-2010, 11:19 AM
1122-1143 is much stronger support than we think.. only below this point one can think of 1040 or so on..:cool:

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 11:25 AM
1122-1143 is much stronger support than we think.. only below this point one can think of 1040 or so on..:cool:

i got my popcorn and am kickin back and watching, should be fun

MK

Goldmember
07-27-2010, 11:30 AM
a few weeks back there was sone interesting discussion of cycles and some huge astrological dates right here - July 26 and 27. I have to wonder if it's a top for stock market and other stuff too.

MK

S&P trying to break through 200 dma. A close above is good for another 20 points and 200-250 points on the DJIA. IMO.

cheers

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 11:35 AM
freefall to me means a decline to 1040, maybe lower FWIW

MK

Thanks MK that's helpful, seems people play it fast and loose with the term "free fall" with out defining. When I hear the term "free fall" I think of a waterfall crash like 2008.

dlhunter
07-27-2010, 11:40 AM
Cyclist,

Would you pick up PMT here under $5 CAD, add to BXE or get more FEL?

Thanks!

Cyclist
07-27-2010, 12:04 PM
Cyclist,

Would you pick up PMT here under $5 CAD, add to BXE or get more FEL?

Thanks!

under 5 PMT is a buy ,BXE and FEL are fine as well./
PMT is finishing end of the week its 7 months contraction ,it should start its
5 month run thereafter.

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 12:20 PM
TBT continues to look good. Also keep in mind today is OpEx on GC

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 12:30 PM
Samson Oil & Gas trading 15% lower after the co announced delay to closing of sale of 24,166 acres in Goshen County

Buying opportunity?

Collectivist
07-27-2010, 12:32 PM
matters to me as I like buying when others panic and vice versa, and a 20% or so haircut of the high would "matter" to me.

MK

I assume ILUVPMs is talking about physical gold, not ETF, pool or other gold derivative. And so is correct about not selling his insurance. If it is paper gold he is referring to, I would say it matters too.

I doubt you would sell your gold coins, either, but would trade in and out of paper gold on these volatile swings

Wilhelm
07-27-2010, 12:39 PM
the uraniums are breaking out

Diane_Les_Smith
07-27-2010, 12:46 PM
the uraniums are breaking out

DML has finally reached my target have been waiting since May 10'10. I may jump back in. Happy trading. Thank you Cyclist for giving me a heads up on this one yesterday.

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 12:50 PM
Nat gas keeps knockin it's head against 46.50-47 resistance, can it get through? I hear ya knockin, but ya can't come in.....

MK

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 01:02 PM
Nat gas keeps knockin it's head against 46.50-47 resistance, can it get through? I hear ya knockin, but ya can't come in.....

MK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fa4HUiFJ6c

DayStar
07-27-2010, 01:08 PM
Wheat prices rise on trade chatter about Ukraine export delays due to prod concerns; corn up 3, beans up 1, wheat up 8

Major drought in a region of Russia the size of Portugal may cause loss of 20% of the wheat crop.

DayStar

sriramvr
07-27-2010, 01:11 PM
gold near 144 day SMA

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 01:13 PM
Major drought in a region of Russia the size of Portugal may cause loss of 20% of the wheat crop.

DayStar



Local reports suggest that up to 20% of Argentina's wheat may go unplanted due to dryness

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 01:14 PM
Gold miners just getting hammered in conjuction with gold OpEx; miners in front of what will probably be the best qtr to date.

Free_spirit
07-27-2010, 01:21 PM
gold near 144 day SMA

MK is 144 day moving avg imortant number.. Because if you start doing moving avg from 1-200 you will surely get 200 supports / resistances.. But i wonder if its important number? Kindly put some light on it.:eek: :confused:

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 01:22 PM
DML has finally reached my target have been waiting since May 10'10. I may jump back in. Happy trading. Thank you Cyclist for giving me a heads up on this one yesterday.

DNN flying today - been a long wait

ILUVPMs
07-27-2010, 01:30 PM
under 5 PMT is a buy ,BXE and FEL are fine as well./
PMT is finishing end of the week its 7 months contraction ,it should start its
5 month run thereafter.

thanks for the heads up. I greatly appreciate your hard work and the insight that you provide this forum.

Cyclist, you stated that there will be two low cycles for silver, one in august and the other in october. Hypothetically speaking, if we get 16 silver or 15 this august, what would the secondary low be for october? Would it be lower, or a higher low.?

Thanks,

ILUVPMs
07-27-2010, 01:33 PM
I assume ILUVPMs is talking about physical gold, not ETF, pool or other gold derivative. And so is correct about not selling his insurance. If it is paper gold he is referring to, I would say it matters too.

I doubt you would sell your gold coins, either, but would trade in and out of paper gold on these volatile swings

hi There,

was definitely referring to physical gold and silver. If the ETF prices go down i really dont care that much. I will add more to the stack when it bottoms out. This is one hell of a ride. But to be honest, it was expect .

Will Wong
07-27-2010, 01:36 PM
Take a look at the monthly chart of silver,silver is the NG of the PMs.
Very volatile either way ,its low sits in August as per monthly cycles .It could break to 15 and with an outside chance of 12.
Weekly cycles are having a low second week of October,could be a higher low.

The second low in October could be a higher low as stated above.

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 01:37 PM
MK is 144 day moving avg imortant number.. Because if you start doing moving avg from 1-200 you will surely get 200 supports / resistances.. But i wonder if its important number? Kindly put some light on it.:eek: :confused:

I don't use it, but that doesn't mean anything.

MK

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 01:39 PM
Gold miners just getting hammered in conjuction with gold OpEx; miners in front of what will probably be the best qtr to date.

so the ol buy the rumor and sell the fact looks appropriate here

MK

Collectivist
07-27-2010, 01:39 PM
hi There,

was definitely referring to physical gold and silver. If the ETF prices go down i really dont care that much. I will add more to the stack when it bottoms out. This is one hell of a ride. But to be honest, it was expect .

Then I would tend to agree with your statement that you don't care what the paper price of gold is because, as insurance, you simply won't be selling it anytime soon.

Especially in times when economic uncertainty is the rule rather than the exception.

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 01:42 PM
so the ol buy the rumor and sell the fact looks appropriate here

MK

Short-term traders often provide buying opportunities for long-term investors

Free_spirit
07-27-2010, 01:43 PM
Next immediate scalping target for Gold $1166-1167

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 01:45 PM
Short-term traders often provide buying opportunities for long-term investors

and where is your long term buy point?

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 01:56 PM
and where is your long term buy point?

Long-term holder of gold & gold stocks but looking to add to miners over the next few weeks. Will be listening to CCs to see who may be raising guidance. Not saying we can't/won't go lower but will analyze the fundamentals and act accordingly. At the end of the day I want to own companies with reserves/resources in the ground in politically secure parts of the world.

Goldbud
07-27-2010, 02:00 PM
DML has finally reached my target have been waiting since May 10'10. I may jump back in. Happy trading. Thank you Cyclist for giving me a heads up on this one yesterday.

Denison or Discovery mines?

Harmonica
07-27-2010, 02:06 PM
Hello Cyclist, any suggestions on shorting strategies in the coming weeks...is HFD still on your short list.....looking to hedge my mushrooms

Cheers

Will Wong
07-27-2010, 02:09 PM
Long-term holder of gold & gold stocks but looking to add to miners over the next few weeks. Will be listening to CCs to see who may be raising guidance. Not saying we can't/won't go lower but will analyze the fundamentals and act accordingly. At the end of the day I want to own companies with reserves/resources in the ground in politically secure parts of the world.

John:

Are you more interested in juniors or seniors? I had published a list of juniors with their performance over the last three months. Just a handful reported gains and most were hammered.

Will

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 02:09 PM
MK- curious is 480 on CRB CCI Index significant tech number, retrace, MA, etc.?

Thanks

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 02:22 PM
John:

Are you more interested in juniors or seniors? I had published a list of juniors with their performance over the last three months. Just a handful reported gains and most were hammered.

Will

Not prejudiced to market cap, but prefer companies with production to development companies. That said Cyclist said some time ago money flows would go to the more liquid larger cap names (NEM) & you can see today money flows out just as quickly. My focus is on fundamental analysis, balance sheet, tangible book value, cash flow, etc.

HeavyMeddle
07-27-2010, 02:25 PM
Samson Oil & Gas trading 15% lower after the co announced delay to closing of sale of 24,166 acres in Goshen County

Buying opportunity?

affirmative - added a small lot today. closing pushed to 8/5 .... i'm long term regardless :cool:

ILUVPMs
07-27-2010, 02:28 PM
Hi There,

For ng investors.

Bentek Energy numbers for storage this week is estimated to be 26
Pira Energy Group has there estimate to be 29.

This should be an interesting thursday.

we need to start drawing on reserves to see fundamental change in prince IMO,

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 02:31 PM
MK- curious is 480 on CRB CCI Index significant tech number, retrace, MA, etc.?

Thanks

just don't think it should decline that much if we had made an important breakout

MK

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 02:33 PM
nat gas/crude ratio I talked about this morning is working, nat gas up at 46.76 and cude down 1.44.

MK

udhay28
07-27-2010, 02:37 PM
At the end of day target achieved as planned, but no profit in pocket.... How to control emotions while trading? Childish question but important for me, expertise advice please :)

Free_spirit
07-27-2010, 02:40 PM
At the end of day target achieved as planned, but no profit in pocket.... How to control emotions while trading? Childish question but important for me, expertise advice please :)

Meditation:cool:

horton99
07-27-2010, 03:04 PM
Medication:eek:

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 03:40 PM
At the end of day target achieved as planned, but no profit in pocket.... How to control emotions while trading? Childish question but important for me, expertise advice please :)

Always have a plan. For me I like to have a valuation for every stock I buy, and purchase it at a big enough discount to give me a significant margin of safety. If 2008/09 taught me anything it is always plan for the worst possible outcome.

For example, I have a fair value estimate of $113.00 for BG. Tangible book value is $67.30 & the stock trades at $55.80 giving me a 50% margin of safety. Further, BG has had positive EPS for the last 10 years & trailing twelve months EPS are higher than 5 year ago. Now, even if I plug in EPS of $1.63 into my model and worst case growth estimates (analysts are looking for $5.37 in 2010) I get a a fair value estimate of $80.00 per share.

I'll take that kind of investment all day long

*keep in mind I bought BG at $48, 14% below its current price

Free_spirit
07-27-2010, 03:49 PM
Silver will target 17.95 & 17.60 possibile much lower tomorrow.

With that i expect Gold to sell off as well.. the only reason to keep Gold upside is weekly closing above 1191. then a sell off on Monday.. But i guess tomorrow is the day..

XAU stops above weekly high:cool:


Silver hits ST targets.

Further bearishness could take it towards 17.43 17.26

Diane_Les_Smith
07-27-2010, 03:52 PM
Denison or Discovery mines?

Denison Mines in Canada code is DML and DNN in US

Diane_Les_Smith
07-27-2010, 03:58 PM
Meditation:cool:

Always plan to make a profit, and as Cyclist has often said "time is more important", hence you may have to wait as I did with DML from May to July.. :)

avalkyrie
07-27-2010, 04:03 PM
Can anyone explain the 17% rise in Agria Corp (GRO) today?

Bought earlier this month and it had been pretty ho-hum ... until today.

Thanks, Cyclist, for putting the agriculture stocks on my radar.

Payara
07-27-2010, 04:07 PM
Sold all tna at the gap up open and added to the straddled tza. Thought of buying tna back on the fill but holding off. The pattern looks ready for a down day tomorrow then resume the rally. Volume is light and I believe they need to entice some lower levels to regain the upward move. SJT still in the 26's will add to it tomorrow should it retrace some. dyodd etc. Also long DZZ as a gold hedge. Mixed feelings as my phyical is down but it's up.

JohnGalt
07-27-2010, 04:26 PM
Grains chopped into the close, w wheat providing support; corn, beans down fractionally, wheat up 4-5

Biggest heat risks in Midwest/Deep South for 6-15 day; Tropical activity seems to pick up by the 11-15 day

ISU's Taylor - Aug Wx to Make or Break Corn Yields; He explains how and why:

http://www.farmfutures.com/story.aspx/august/weather/will/make/or/break/corn/yields/says/taylor/17/40476

Antimagnetic
07-27-2010, 04:57 PM
historically, 3 day 100 point rallies were followed by sometimes mean reversions of DJI...within 1.5month period...this time we have many more negative factors on top of things...:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/is+mean+reversion+in+the+djias+future/trading_floor_blog.aspx?single=true&blogid=101303

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/images/commentary/2010/100727djia_returns.gif

Quad G
07-27-2010, 04:58 PM
Sold all tna at the gap up open and added to the straddled tza. Thought of buying tna back on the fill but holding off. The pattern looks ready for a down day tomorrow then resume the rally. Volume is light and I believe they need to entice some lower levels to regain the upward move. SJT still in the 26's will add to it tomorrow should it retrace some. dyodd etc. Also long DZZ as a gold hedge. Mixed feelings as my phyical is down but it's up.

Hey Payara,

Thanks for your end of day point of views.

I've noticed that the markets are making turns every 8-9 days. Today was a 9th day top. Though I might leave room for a early morning pop. I think we may see another top to top 8-9 day cycle, which would end late next week at the soonest, which also aligns with UCT on the 7th.

So I'm looking for 3-4 days down and 4-5 days up, all taking place within 10k and 10.8k on the Dow, movement ouside that envelope may suggest something else entirely. Another chance for a sizeable drop, after this next round of gyrations.

IMHO, DYODD

...

Cycloney2001
07-27-2010, 05:20 PM
Hey Avalkyrie,

I caught your avatar. That is my hometown! Blue Dog! Geaux Saints!
Way-Yat bra!

Can anyone explain the 17% rise in Agria Corp (GRO) today?

Bought earlier this month and it had been pretty ho-hum ... until today.

Thanks, Cyclist, for putting the agriculture stocks on my radar.

Will Wong
07-27-2010, 05:30 PM
Always have a plan. For me I like to have a valuation for every stock I buy, and purchase it at a big enough discount to give me a significant margin of safety. If 2008/09 taught me anything it is always plan for the worst possible outcome.

For example, I have a fair value estimate of $113.00 for BG. Tangible book value is $67.30 & the stock trades at $55.80 giving me a 50% margin of safety. Further, BG has had positive EPS for the last 10 years & trailing twelve months EPS are higher than 5 year ago. Now, even if I plug in EPS of $1.63 into my model and worst case growth estimates (analysts are looking for $5.37 in 2010) I get a a fair value estimate of $80.00 per share.

I'll take that kind of investment all day long

*keep in mind I bought BG at $48, 14% below its current price

John G:

I like your plan. What kind of software do you use for your model? I like to know what other miners are investment quality based on your model if you don't mind sharing.

Thanks!

Will

Payara
07-27-2010, 06:42 PM
Hey Payara,

Thanks for your end of day point of views.

I've noticed that the markets are making turns every 8-9 days. Today was a 9th day top. Though I might leave room for a early morning pop. I think we may see another top to top 8-9 day cycle, which would end late next week at the soonest, which also aligns with UCT on the 7th.

So I'm looking for 3-4 days down and 4-5 days up, all taking place within 10k and 10.8k on the Dow, movement ouside that envelope may suggest something else entirely. Another chance for a sizeable drop, after this next round of gyrations.

IMHO, DYODD...

Quad - I continue to like your style. Have noticed the same patterns with corrective 3 and 5 day moves comprising the 8/9. Occasional 12 day patterns are also present particularly on a 3rd wave. I'm not clear if this is a abc or 3 of 5. We'll know soon based on how quickly we (assuming so) break the high today. If this is a 3 of 5, I don't expect 3-4 days down.

We could be in a similar pattern shown on 3/8/10. If so, we'll just continue up. The big difference is the testing of the 200 dma on the s/p. We usually see some pull back before breaking. The dow has already cleared but hasn't back tested. So, the odds favor a pull back then we'll see.

I was happy booking the profits on today's gap up. For some reason, I'm more nervous holding a 3x bullish position then 3x bearish. Still, it's the summer with thin trading and the bulls are in charge for now. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

MGoldman
07-27-2010, 08:48 PM
Hey Payara,

Thanks for your end of day point of views.

I've noticed that the markets are making turns every 8-9 days. Today was a 9th day top. Though I might leave room for a early morning pop. I think we may see another top to top 8-9 day cycle, which would end late next week at the soonest, which also aligns with UCT on the 7th.

So I'm looking for 3-4 days down and 4-5 days up, all taking place within 10k and 10.8k on the Dow, movement ouside that envelope may suggest something else entirely. Another chance for a sizeable drop, after this next round of gyrations.

IMHO, DYODD

...

Quad,

We have time when these two went in tandem down. Now they diverge. Today we have the dow top..... and we should see next 3-4 days down to 10k ..... . would those money exit into GOLD.....or could be another sell off gold to cover loss and we see Gold down today to 1140? ..... what ya thing QC?

moodgam
07-27-2010, 09:19 PM
day of truth for gold stocks, they may be beginning a deadly decline, muy danger unless they reverse northward. DYODD and all that

MK

MK - what does the price drop of gold matter to the long term holders? IMO should just create a better entry point for the miners??? The issue becomes one of timing and one will not have to be "spot on". Do you see it differently?

MetalsKing
07-27-2010, 09:23 PM
MK - what does the price drop of gold matter to the long term holders? IMO should just create a better entry point for the miners??? The issue becomes one of timing and one will not have to be "spot on". Do you see it differently?

IMO miners are great trading vehicles, I for one am not willing to hold through a possible 25-35% decline (14% for June so far in HUI) from the highs which is posisble here. If you're willing to then that is fine by me

MK.

moodgam
07-27-2010, 10:21 PM
IMO miners are great trading vehicles, I for one am not willing to hold through a possible 25-35% decline (14% for June so far in HUI) from the highs which is posisble here. If you're willing to then that is fine by me

MK.

I have been standing aside on gold stocks (miners) and in a wait & see mode. My two near term goals are more physical and miners and probably RGLD. I'm currently at 90% cash looking at jumping into either DBA or GCC. Only NG is PMGYF. Had SJT in my sights but never pulled the trigger looking for a pullback.

jvsjvs
07-27-2010, 10:34 PM
Can anyone explain the 17% rise in Agria Corp (GRO) today?

Bought earlier this month and it had been pretty ho-hum ... until today.

Thanks, Cyclist, for putting the agriculture stocks on my radar.I was wondering if the price of gold going down around 11 am from 1180 down to 1160 (a drop of 1.69%) has anything to do with a rise in the stock price at the exact same time from 1.46 to 1.59 (8.9%). I believe the company is China based.

sriramvr
07-28-2010, 01:39 AM
MK is 144 day moving avg imortant number.. Because if you start doing moving avg from 1-200 you will surely get 200 supports / resistances.. But i wonder if its important number? Kindly put some light on it.:eek: :confused:

144 is fibonacci no. and if you see daily charts, gold has taken support around that level.

Will Wong
07-28-2010, 02:30 AM
Liquidity is the name of the game,deflationary whiplash will be short for the commodity market to endure.We are in time to see QE2 arrive ,after the Dems hit the pannic button.It will be time to load up ,as all asset classes will start to float on a sea of paper .Bonds will just crumble.

Dear Cyclist:

This answer was in response to purplefoetus' question about what will cause the two dates of August 20 and October where silver will be at a low.

Coupled with your recommendation that after Nov/Dec, we should all be in crude and gold PM stocks; I take it that QE2 and the Dems pressing the panic button will happen somtime after Nov/Dec. Otherwise there would be a conflict between being only in crude and PMs and the time to reload as all asset classes will start to float in a sea of paper.

Thanks for your help!

Will Wong
07-28-2010, 02:38 AM
There are 2 lows for silver ,either it is going to be around August 20th or the first second week of October.the second low for silver will be finetuned after
August

Dear Cyclist:

Thank you for your response. Reading your answer, my initial take is that the low for silver is either on August 20 or sometime in October. However, that will only be one low, not two lows. Read in conjunction with your previous post on the same subject, I interpret that there are two lows, the first on August 20 with a possible target of $15 and an outside chance of $12. The second low which could be a higher low will happen in October and the second low will be finetuned after the first low. I trust that I have interpreted you correctly. If not, please correct me. Thanks!

Will

Will Wong
07-28-2010, 02:53 AM
You will have to be patient ,the main market will do the staircase hop down
around 2 weeks from now. The dive will materialize in September

Not yet,the sharp decline will come in September after we will hit the high
within the next two weeks.My thinking is 10700 for the Dow.

Interesting note for the US from a historical perspective as the US runs on a 33 year cycle since its 1776 independence.In 2007 it had completed its 7th
cycle.After that date it will go as the Continental did as well time wise.In 2013 the projection is a reform of its currency.Just dabbling in the numbers..

Dear Cyclist:

From the above two quotes, it appears that the market will rise until the Dow hits 10,700 presumably. After that, the market will perform a staircase hop down followed by a Dive in September.

Putting some dates on this string of events, July 6 to August 6, Dow rises to 10,700. August 9 to 27, market performs staircase hop down. August 30-Market Dive Down. Is this a reasonable scenario? Please feel free to correct my dates. Thanks!

Will

Auspirit
07-28-2010, 03:36 AM
I am wondering if 1160 is going to be support for gold. Not exactly but over about 5 of the last 8 trading day the price has dived when New York opens. I think some one isn't even trying to hide.
I do think we will break 1160 and go lower in the following weeks. I don't think we will see 1040. More like 1090-1100
lowest. There could be a surprise spike if Israel bombs Iran.
% likely? My guess is 65-80% in the next 3 weeks.

MGoldman
07-28-2010, 04:08 AM
I am wondering if 1160 is going to be support for gold. Not exactly but over about 5 of the last 8 trading day the price has dived when New York opens. I think some one isn't even trying to hide.
I do think we will break 1160 and go lower in the following weeks. I don't think we will see 1040. More like 1090-1100
lowest. There could be a surprise spike if Israel bombs Iran.
% likely? My guess is 65-80% in the next 3 weeks.

We will know and get more dry powder....... there have been talks about 1100 or thereabout......but no one can say exactly about the path going there.

Mats Wheellander
07-28-2010, 04:31 AM
IMO miners are great trading vehicles, I for one am not willing to hold through a possible 25-35% decline (14% for June so far in HUI) from the highs which is posisble here. If you're willing to then that is fine by me

MK.


MK, you held on to gold troughout the 30% drop in 08 didnt you?

Could you share a bit why you kept the faith back then?

Cheers.

flying
07-28-2010, 04:51 AM
There are 2 lows for silver ,either it is going to be around August 20th or the first second week of October.the second low for silver will be finetuned after
August

Boy if I were home I would sell silver now & re-buy later....or not ;)

But I am still traveling & do not have that ability till August 19th

I know you said there is no telling how low silver will go.
Also sorry if it has been stated but what do you see for physical gold during that same period?
As always
Thanks for any insight

varebear72
07-28-2010, 07:34 AM
Boy if I were home I would sell silver now & re-buy later....or not ;)

But I am still traveling & do not have that ability till August 19th

I know you said there is no telling how low silver will go.
Also sorry if it has been stated but what do you see for physical gold during that same period?
As always
Thanks for any insight

Flying, if you find a dealer that is not gouging let us know......been buying from Lear for awhile now and they only dropped their selling price a few cents while dropping their buyback price dropped by a whopping 90 cents....selling now and buying later has always seemed to be a squeeze play that I have never won. Of course that's just my experience....maybe not others.

goldiehawn
07-28-2010, 07:59 AM
Samson Oil & Gas trading 15% lower after the co announced delay to closing of sale of 24,166 acres in Goshen County

Buying opportunity?

The delay is no big deal. The buyer is trying to do title searches in Goshen County where the clerks office is run by one old gal and just ran out of time. To even see the clerk you have to make an appointment and she is booked out one month. Anyway to answer your question yes it is a buying opportunity in my opinion. Great news is on the horizon with this company. Three new Bakken wells coming online as well as $79 million in the bank soon (by Sept 5th). They now have $10m in the bank and zero debt or close to it. Good luck.

MetalsKing
07-28-2010, 08:30 AM
MK, you held on to gold troughout the 30% drop in 08 didnt you?

Could you share a bit why you kept the faith back then?

Cheers.

gold coins yes as I put them in another "investment category" altogether from all my other trading funds and they were bought in the early 2000's, I hold nothing else gold related however for now. I hold the coins as long term insurance or hedge due to the crazy financial times we now live in. But they represent maybe 10-15% of my overall investing assets. This works for me, others likely differ based upon their own needs and perceptions of the future.

MK

FH2NYC
07-28-2010, 08:49 AM
silver is plunging...

ILUVPMs
07-28-2010, 08:57 AM
silver is plunging...

As expected, won't last long. This will all play out accordingly. It'll go down and make it's run in the fall.

MetalsKing
07-28-2010, 08:59 AM
As expected, won't last long. This will all play out accordingly. It'll go down and make it's run in the fall.

"long" for me is several weeks and as Cyclist said it could make another low in October and decline to 15, maybe even 12. For anyone but a very long term investor that is very significant and IMO worth avoiding

MK

MetalsKing
07-28-2010, 09:08 AM
Nice, Natty gas at 47.50 and breaking out above resistance and crude down 66 centavos, I like what I see.

MK

Free_spirit
07-28-2010, 09:08 AM
Silver hits ST targets.

Further bearishness could take it towards 17.43 17.26

Out of silver shorts completly

Roonbox
07-28-2010, 09:13 AM
Nice, Natty gas at 47.50 and breaking out above resistance and crude down 66 centavos, I like what I see.

MK



seems to be on a bit of a run this morning

MetalsKing
07-28-2010, 09:16 AM
seems to be on a bit of a run this morning

if it stays above 46.50 - 47 breakout next target is 5.10 using Sept. contract

MK

sriramvr
07-28-2010, 09:28 AM
gold 2 days close + weekly + monthly close below 1150, then there might be huge technical liquidation to 1050

MetalsKing
07-28-2010, 09:34 AM
NEM misses earnings estimates, raises dividend, and is down another 1.30 after yesterday's smash.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/07/28/newmont-sags-on-q2-miss-raises-dividend-50/?mod=yahoobarrons

bluefire
07-28-2010, 09:53 AM
NG and Copper up
Ag, Au, and Crude down
Just like Cyclist said

NEM missed but they raised their dividend 50%. Do you think that will offset bad news?

MetalsKing
07-28-2010, 10:01 AM
NG and Copper up
Ag, Au, and Crude down
Just like Cyclist said

NEM missed but they raised their dividend 50%. Do you think that will offset bad news?

it all depends on how low the sector goes, if we test the Feb lows then it has much more to go, if gold bottoms around 1150 then a bottom could occur now, with Cyclists 3rd week of August lows forecast IMO it's too early to bottom fish, my 2 cents.

Will Wong
07-28-2010, 10:08 AM
Boy if I were home I would sell silver now & re-buy later....or not ;)

But I am still traveling & do not have that ability till August 19th

I know you said there is no telling how low silver will go.
Also sorry if it has been stated but what do you see for physical gold during that same period?
As always
Thanks for any insight

That was exactly what I did. I sold off all my SLV call options (at a slight loss) and bought some slv put options. Will reenter at or near bottom with Jan 2012 SLV calls. Took some courage because $15 for silver seems a bit far fetch a couple of days ago but entirely plausible now.

snagglepus
07-28-2010, 10:17 AM
That was exactly what I did. I sold off all my SLV call options (at a slight loss) and bought some slv put options. Will reenter at or near bottom with Jan 2012 SLV calls. Took some courage because $15 for silver seems a bit far fetch a couple of days ago but entirely plausible now.

Good luck in your call for the drop.....I am thinking differently....I am slowly accumalating.....

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 10:22 AM
DoE Inventories due out in approx 10 min
Petroleum inventory data is due out today at 10:30am E.T. According to the Bloomberg survey:

* Analysts believe that crude oil inventories had a draw of 1725K during the week ending July 23 (last year crude saw a build of 5152K); expectations range from a draw of 4500K barrels to a build of 1000K (15 out of 16 analysts expect a draw); prior 4 week avg is a draw of 2917K.
* Analysts believe gasoline inventories had a build of 275K (last year gas saw a draw of 2315K); expectations range from a draw of 1500K to a build of 2000K (10 out of 16 analysts expect a build); prior 4 week avg is a build of 1144K.
* Analysts believe distillate fuel inventories had a build of 2000K (last year distillates saw a build of 2108K); expectations range from a build of 500K to a build of 3100K; (16 out 16 analysts expect a build); prior 4 week avg is a build of 2414K.
* Analysts believe that the change in the US refinery utilization rate was -0.50%. Expectations range from -1.50% to 0.75%. Last week's change was 1.00%.

Will Wong
07-28-2010, 10:23 AM
Good luck in your call for the drop.....I am thinking differently....I am slowly accumalating.....

Thanks! I understand that options are akin to gambling. Nevertheless as long as silver is tied to fiat money, it will always be at the mercy of speculators. I value Cyclist's expertise and will act on it the best way I know. I too am accumulating physical PMs. I am not trading my physicals. With proceeds from trading paper silver and gold, I will accumulate more physicals.

snagglepus
07-28-2010, 10:27 AM
Thanks! I understand that options are akin to gambling. Nevertheless as long as silver is tied to fiat money, it will always be at the mercy of speculators. I value Cyclist's expertise and will act on it the best way I know. I too am accumulating physical PMs. I am not trading my physicals. With proceeds from trading paper silver and gold, I will accumulate more physicals.

You got it ! That's the idea !!

Grassfarmer
07-28-2010, 10:28 AM
Link to storyhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-26/russian-drought-raises-bondholder-risk-on-rising-grain-price-funding-need.html

Grassfarmer ( wishing he was a wheat farmer)

Quad G
07-28-2010, 10:28 AM
Quad,

We have time when these two went in tandem down. Now they diverge. Today we have the dow top..... and we should see next 3-4 days down to 10k ..... . would those money exit into GOLD.....or could be another sell off gold to cover loss and we see Gold down today to 1140? ..... what ya thing QC?

I still hold my position that Gold will likely bottom between 1050 - 1100 (sweet spot 108x) by mid to late August, Cyclist suggest 3rd week of August. This should end the C leg down of wave (2) if you are following my LT chart. Then August '10 to spring/summer 2011 would see gold rocket up to at least 1360 and more likely 1600+

Dow on a different track, with secondary top near Aug 7th, with continued selling into January.

Less stock market exit money entering bonds, more entering gold and cash.


...

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 10:33 AM
DoE Inventory Data
Dept of Energy reports that:

* Crude oil inventories had a build of 7308K (consensus is a draw of 1725K)
* Gasoline inventories had a build of 91K (consensus is a build of 275K)
* Distillate inventories had a build of 938K (consensus is a build of 2000K)


Big build

SpiderMan
07-28-2010, 10:35 AM
it is!!! and the crude merely dives half a buck after that!

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 10:38 AM
From the floor of the CBOT
Good investor buying of the open; Wheat at new highs for year; corn up 8, beans up 12, wheat up 19

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 10:42 AM
NEM misses earnings estimates, raises dividend, and is down another 1.30 after yesterday's smash.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/07/28/newmont-sags-on-q2-miss-raises-dividend-50/?mod=yahoobarrons

NEM missed but a lot is attributed to lower provisional copper cost recognized this Q (2.33lb) that will be adjusted next Q.

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 10:48 AM
Hecla Mining beats by $0.01, beats two est avg on revs (4.72 )
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.05 per share, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.04; revenues rose 18.8% year/year to $88.6 mln vs the $75 mln two est avg. Hecla is on track to meet its full-year production guidance of 10 to 11 million ounces of silver. "With very low operating costs per ounce, our margin was in excess of $20 per ounce of silver which drove cash flow of $54 million in the quarter, the second highest in Hecla's history."

$200M in cash/no debt. Cash costs of negative $1.82 per ounce of silver after by-product credits in Q2.


About 1/5th of HL's market cap is now cash. Buy it, the Alaska mine, take the cash, and sell the rest. TCK how much cash you got?

spgold
07-28-2010, 10:54 AM
UNG lookd strong today with a nice volume so far. I guess that it decided to follow the NG rally (perhaps an interesting ETF for the next few days).

What do you think ?

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 11:07 AM
Grains hit chart buy stops, adding to gains; beans above 200-day moving avg on continuation charts; corn, beans up 14, wht up 20

Cyclist looks like a great call on the Ags

beastie
07-28-2010, 11:07 AM
Hopefully the management at the company do something smart like do a stock buyback instead of dilution of shares.


Hecla Mining beats by $0.01, beats two est avg on revs (4.72 )
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.05 per share, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.04; revenues rose 18.8% year/year to $88.6 mln vs the $75 mln two est avg. Hecla is on track to meet its full-year production guidance of 10 to 11 million ounces of silver. "With very low operating costs per ounce, our margin was in excess of $20 per ounce of silver which drove cash flow of $54 million in the quarter, the second highest in Hecla's history."

$200M in cash/no debt. Cash costs of negative $1.82 per ounce of silver after by-product credits in Q2.


About 1/5th of HL's market cap is now cash. Buy it, the Alaska mine, take the cash, and sell the rest. TCK how much cash you got?

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 11:10 AM
Hopefully the management at the company do something smart like do a stock buyback instead of dilution of shares.

Buyback or divi would be nice

greenbeard
07-28-2010, 11:30 AM
Just shows you how Wall Street has an agenda against gold. Ever wonder why ALL tech stock estimates are made to be beat every quarter year after year?


NEM misses earnings estimates, raises dividend, and is down another 1.30 after yesterday's smash.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/07/28/newmont-sags-on-q2-miss-raises-dividend-50/?mod=yahoobarrons

richy
07-28-2010, 11:38 AM
Sold all tna at the gap up open and added to the straddled tza. Thought of buying tna back on the fill but holding off. The pattern looks ready for a down day tomorrow then resume the rally. Volume is light and I believe they need to entice some lower levels to regain the upward move. SJT still in the 26's will add to it tomorrow should it retrace some. dyodd etc. Also long DZZ as a gold hedge. Mixed feelings as my phyical is down but it's up.

Very well played, Kudos. ;)

patterns
07-28-2010, 11:57 AM
Q for Cyclist re: PMT TET Broker friend said PMT and TET run by brother and sister. Father oversees both companys. He also said TET is a better buy. Do you like PMT more just because of div or what am I missing.

spgold
07-28-2010, 12:08 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216485-market-volatility-heats-up-in-2q10-but-should-it-be-cause-for-concern

came across the above.If you have not read it yet please take a look at it and comment what you feel about the volatility and VXX.

Thanks

Diane_Les_Smith
07-28-2010, 12:53 PM
Just when I get comfortable using their website format, they go and change it again.

Anyone notice the TSX website, the Price History is now better has the value of difference on the close :).

The other pages have bigger print hence you have to scroll more and the Charts is more confusing than ever (:.

denaliguide
07-28-2010, 01:00 PM
but if you do your DD and either call or go to the website and read the news you know what your broker is true, but its been published here before.

A little DD can go a long ways........

Q for Cyclist re: PMT TET Broker friend said PMT and TET run by brother and sister. Father oversees both companys. He also said TET is a better buy. Do you like PMT more just because of div or what am I missing.

denaliguide
07-28-2010, 01:04 PM
duh ? wall street, played like a violin by GS, and of course GS, the new world proxy of the Rothschilds. BTW, who do you think holds the most gold and forest on the planet?? Take a wild guess..........

Just shows you how Wall Street has an agenda against gold. Ever wonder why ALL tech stock estimates are made to be beat every quarter year after year?

Free_spirit
07-28-2010, 01:05 PM
Out of Gold & Silver shorts:cool:

Free_spirit
07-28-2010, 01:23 PM
Why markets acting so dull since 2-3 hrs? Are we waiting for something?

snagglepus
07-28-2010, 01:28 PM
Why markets acting so dull since 2-3 hrs? Are we waiting for something?

I think the market is undecided....The S&P just hit the 200 day MA and turned around and ran....

Bring the Gold
07-28-2010, 01:28 PM
duh ? wall street, played like a violin by GS, and of course GS, the new world proxy of the Rothschilds. BTW, who do you think holds the most gold and forest on the planet?? Take a wild guess..........
Forest? Now THAT is interesting any links?

Hackswell
07-28-2010, 01:32 PM
Why markets acting so dull since 2-3 hrs? Are we waiting for something?

beige book at 2:15

Free_spirit
07-28-2010, 01:35 PM
I guess they are waiting for Beige book.......

Is it? Will it make any difference?

Which Way Wednesday - Beige Book Boost or Bust?

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 01:36 PM
Why markets acting so dull since 2-3 hrs? Are we waiting for something?

Fed's Beige Book release

karma
07-28-2010, 01:37 PM
Forest? Now THAT is interesting any links?

There is so much interesting info out there i need 20 lives just to read a snippet of it.

"A recent survey has revealed that Queen Elizabeth II is the world’s largest land owner now. The British monarch is the head of the United Kingdom and 31 other territories and owns an astounding 6,600 million acres of land worldwide. This is almost a sixth of the entire world without taking the oceans into consideration.

More at : The Queen of England Heads the List Of The World’s Largest Land Owners http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world/the-queen-of-england-heads-the-list-of-the-worlds-largest-land-owners_100403320.html#ixzz0v04OQj3c
"

Free_spirit
07-28-2010, 01:38 PM
beige book at 2:15

ECO CAL it shows at 2:00

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 01:38 PM
Here is a quick update on the latest recommendations and market position from Lowry Research, the oldest technical analysis firm on Wall Street:

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/lowry-research-update-buying-power-exceeds-april-highs-4493.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TradersNarrative+%28Trader%27 s+Narrative%29

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 01:54 PM
ECO CAL it shows at 2:00

2 PMET is correct

denaliguide
07-28-2010, 01:57 PM
because it was of enuf interest for me to remember it but not enuf to note where I read it.

Basically it was a passage that cited the Rothschild's as being the largest aquisitors of mining entities and forest+pulp companies at the end of economic downturns, and if I remember right, basically indicated they continued to hold and add to those holdings thru every economic cycle

Now I got to think about it? Oh man..........

I see they are still playing games with FAU.V.........




Forest? Now THAT is interesting any links?

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 02:03 PM
Initial reaction to FOMC headlines is slightly negative for stock indices -- Dow -19, S&P -4.8, Nasdaq -18


Econ activity still increasing but 4 districts see softening

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 02:05 PM
Fed Beige Book: Economic Recovery Slowed in Some Areas; Sluggish Residential Real Estate; Labor Markets Imporved modestly across most regions

need to read full report

shubhzu
07-28-2010, 02:10 PM
Nice, Natty gas at 47.50 and breaking out above resistance and crude down 66 centavos, I like what I see.

MK

what is happening to NG?? :confused:
rapid move up & now down again, why??

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 02:10 PM
Fed Beige Book:Economic activity has continued to increase, on balance, since the previous survey. Among those Districts reporting improvements in economic activity, a number of them noted that the increases were modest, and two Districts, Atlanta and Chicago, said that the pace of economic activity had slowed recently. Manufacturing activity continued to expand in most Districts, although several Districts reported that activity had slowed or leveled off during the reporting period. Commercial real estate markets, especially construction, remained weak. Banking conditions varied across the Districts, with some Districts noting soft or decreased overall loan demand; credit standards remained tight in most reporting Districts.

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 02:24 PM
CBOT Some late profit taking by day traders, but impressive nonetheless; Unofficially, corn & beans up 13, wheat up 19

Cyclist
07-28-2010, 02:25 PM
Q for Cyclist re: PMT TET Broker friend said PMT and TET run by brother and sister. Father oversees both companys. He also said TET is a better buy. Do you like PMT more just because of div or what am I missing.

The story of the three companies POU,TET and PMT is a trilogy in itself.
Most if not all of the broker community were outright negative regarding POU last year March when the stock hovered around 5 dollars for a month.
The asset value of the stock was conservatively 12 at that time.
TET.un was going for the same price at that time before its conversion.
PMT.un hovered around 3 dollars.TET and PMT embodies two different
strategies Tet is a conservative hold,as it has no debt and hardly hedges
its production.PMT is a more leveraged play and has a huge landbase to drill
from.Its taxpool is 1 billion plus and can pay out its dividends as it was doing so when it was a trust.The only difference is that the dividend of 5cent is 20% worth more than the 5 cent previous just by ther tax treatment.
Brokers only look through their rear view mirrors when they are driving.

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 02:27 PM
Hecla Mining mgmt on conf call (4.86 +0.14)
Co produced 2.6 mln ounces of silver this quarter, slightly more than the co did in Q1 but less than a year ago. However its level of production is as planned, and it is on track to produce on 10-11 million ounces. The co had negative cash costs again due to its cash management, combined with about 90-cent lead and zinc. When combining that with its realized silver price, which was about $19.00, Hecla generated $54 mln of operating cash flow for the quarter, second highest in our history.

Also, due to the co's negative cash costs, it was able to produce margins in the quarter of over $20/ounce for silver, up from $10.35 in last year's Q2. Surface drilling started in late May to define the north, and northeast tension. Eastridge drilling on the defined mine contact will begin later this summer. In all, the co anticipates drilling 20,000 feet on surface, at Greens Creek by October. Drilling continues to expand the resources east of the current reserves at the Lucky Friday mine with two drills active. Drilling in the silver valley of Idaho is concentrated along mineralized structures east and west of the Lucky Friday mine.

Co said we will see a decision on the internal shaft of the Lucky Friday that will give access to deeper, higher grade material, that it would expect to increase Lucky Friday's production to 5 million ounces. Co said, we wont' see them looking to acquire new assets that Hecla can apply its development and operating expertise, so that the co can generate a growth profile that is consistent with its financial capacity.

Cyclist
07-28-2010, 02:29 PM
MDN finally got their act together in drilling up the Ikungu property in a more serious way .There is where the gold is and and their bread and butter.

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 02:34 PM
The story of the three companies POU,TET and PMT is a trilogy in itself.
Most if not all of the broker community were outright negative regarding POU last year March when the stock hovered around 5 dollars for a month.
The asset value of the stock was conservatively 12 at that time.
TET.un was going for the same price at that time before its conversion.
PMT.un hovered around 3 dollars.TET and PMT embodies two different
strategies Tet is a conservative hold,as it has no debt and hardly hedges
its production.PMT is a more leveraged play and has a huge landbase to drill
from.Its taxpool is 1 billion plus and can pay out its dividends as it was doing so when it was a trust.The only difference is that the dividend of 5cent is 20% worth more than the 5 cent previous just by ther tax treatment.
Brokers only look through their rear view mirrors when they are driving.

Great post - thanks

venicerain
07-28-2010, 02:42 PM
My June dividend of PMGYF was finally deposited in my Fidelity account. The dividend was paid on July 15th and its status remained as "pending reinvest price" for a week and finally reinvested at about 4.89. I was initially told by Fidelity people that this stock is ineligible for dividend reinvestment but they somehow did that. I do not know how but they indeed reinvested my dividends automatically, well it took a week.

Grassfarmer
07-28-2010, 03:08 PM
From BNN
http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/july-2010/trading-day-july-28-2010/#clip330030


Grassfarmer

JohnGalt
07-28-2010, 03:12 PM
Commodities Close: Natural gas ends higher; silver extends sell off for second session
Grains led all advancers in the CRB Commodity Index, after it tacked on 2.8%. Sept corn futures rallied for 3.7% to close at $3.76 per bushel. Sept wheat futures gained 3.5% to end at $6.15 per bushel. Wheat traded to a 13-month high, helped by forecasts of a sharp decline in Russian wheat exports... Sept natural gas rallied for 1.1% to close at $4.71 per MMBtu. While natural gas did close comfortably higher, it gave back the majority of its gains as it sold off in afternoon trade to close nearly 15 cents below its highs. Sept crude oil settled lower by 0.7% to $76.99 per barrel... Sept silver shed 0.7% to close at $17.44 per ounce. Silver has dropped over 75 cents in the past two sessions and is trading at its worst level since June 7. Aug gold ended higher by 0.2% to $1160.40 per ounce. (Dow -0.5%, Nasdaq -1.1%, S&P -0.7%)

spgold
07-28-2010, 03:18 PM
Since NG is a popular comodity among the memebrs, I was wondering what do you think of NGAS ...

Thanks

patterns
07-28-2010, 03:25 PM
Thanks for your help on PMT TET.

Fresnel
07-28-2010, 03:33 PM
From BNN
http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/july-2010/trading-day-july-28-2010/#clip330030


Grassfarmer

Great find -

Bring the Gold
07-28-2010, 03:34 PM
because it was of enuf interest for me to remember it but not enuf to note where I read it.

Basically it was a passage that cited the Rothschild's as being the largest aquisitors of mining entities and forest+pulp companies at the end of economic downturns, and if I remember right, basically indicated they continued to hold and add to those holdings thru every economic cycle

Now I got to think about it? Oh man..........

I see they are still playing games with FAU.V.........
Yeah, I'm still up quite a bit. Not ready to sell quite yet.

Shredmonster
07-28-2010, 04:06 PM
MDN finally got their act together in drilling up the Ikungu property in a more serious way .There is where the gold is and and their bread and butter.

I don't get this company. They have been in a trading range since about 2007 according to Dorsey Wright & Associates - looking at the P & F chart now.

They score 0 out of 5 on technical attributes which is horrible.

The sector itself is starting to reach oversold levels.

Currently the stock is in a DOWNTREND - trading below the Bearish Resistance Line. Weekly momentum shows some short term strength but monthly momentum recently turned negative suggesting long term weakness.

What am I missing here ?

Will Wong
07-28-2010, 04:23 PM
I don't get this company. They have been in a trading range since about 2007 according to Dorsey Wright & Associates - looking at the P & F chart now.

They score 0 out of 5 on technical attributes which is horrible.

The sector itself is starting to reach oversold levels.

Currently the stock is in a DOWNTREND - trading below the Bearish Resistance Line. Weekly momentum shows some short term strength but monthly momentum recently turned negative suggesting long term weakness.

What am I missing here ?

Shred:

From what I gathered from our admin, PnF charts don't work quite well with penny stocks that are more speculative in nature. MDDNF is not quite a penny stock but close.

Shredmonster
07-28-2010, 04:37 PM
Got it. Thanks for the explanation.

denaliguide
07-28-2010, 04:42 PM
for your information is incomplete. FWIW, TA works on a lot of stuff, down to say perhaps single digit penny stocks, that's my finding.

Good Luck


Shred:

From what I gathered from our admin, PnF charts don't work quite well with penny stocks that are more speculative in nature. MDDNF is not quite a penny stock but close.

Will Wong
07-28-2010, 04:46 PM
I don't get this company. They have been in a trading range since about 2007 according to Dorsey Wright & Associates - looking at the P & F chart now.

They score 0 out of 5 on technical attributes which is horrible.

The sector itself is starting to reach oversold levels.

Currently the stock is in a DOWNTREND - trading below the Bearish Resistance Line. Weekly momentum shows some short term strength but monthly momentum recently turned negative suggesting long term weakness.

What am I missing here ?


Hey Shred:

I find that Dorsey Wright does not cover a lot of the smaller stocks that trade under $5, especially those that has 5 alphabets and ends with an "F". Were you able to get an analysis for MDNNF from Dorsey?

Will Wong
07-28-2010, 04:49 PM
for your information is incomplete. FWIW, TA works on a lot of stuff, down to say perhaps single digit penny stocks, that's my finding.

Good Luck

Thanks DG. Like I'd said, it was hearsay. The few pennystocks that I did a PnF on usually are "0 out of 5" ers despite being highly touted on this forum so I really don't know what to make of this.

denaliguide
07-28-2010, 04:55 PM
of info you should be using.

As a min, I'd be using Insider Trading, modified P n F's, volume dynamics, conventional charts + Position, Candlestick and Cycle Analysis.

Cyclist never answered me when I asked what Bruce Mitchell's involvement in MDN meant, but I see he unloaded a large piece of it, but I dont know if he has more and it overhangs the market.

MDN has been somewhat of a puzzle, but only worthy of the smallest bet one could make, but it is of a genre that Cyclist likes, so I keep my eye on it.

Far as I am concerned, PMT is a far better bet............

I don't get this company. They have been in a trading range since about 2007 according to Dorsey Wright & Associates - looking at the P & F chart now.

They score 0 out of 5 on technical attributes which is horrible.

The sector itself is starting to reach oversold levels.

Currently the stock is in a DOWNTREND - trading below the Bearish Resistance Line. Weekly momentum shows some short term strength but monthly momentum recently turned negative suggesting long term weakness.

What am I missing here ?

Shredmonster
07-28-2010, 05:13 PM
Yeah I have a bunch of PMGYF as it is called here.

Right now it is my only holding in stocks. I do not like this market and am waiting patiently to pick up some bargains when it turns as it will.

One thing I have never forgotten is the trend is your friend. Don't try to trade against it. Right now I don't see a real trend. Seems to be a suckers rally.

Moneysuckle
07-28-2010, 07:53 PM
Since 2001, Gold has not spent any serious time under its 65-week moving average except for about 4 months in latter 2008. Generally, Gold finds support at its 65-week moving average during a correction. Accordingly, a retreat to the 65-week moving average is usually a great time to buy Gold.

This week, Gold's 65-week moving average currently sits at $1080.03 and is rising about $5 per week. In addition, my Gann Square of 9 shows an important inflection point at $1088.50 which can also serve as the basis of support.

We are currently experiencing a correction in Gold from the peak of $1265 in June. Gold traded as low as $1159.50 today. If $1132.25 (another Gann inflection point) does not hold, look for Gold to test its 65-week moving average at or near $1088.50. Should Gold find support there, I will likely initiate a long position.

Tensegrity
07-28-2010, 08:55 PM
Interesting piece on basic break even price factors for NG producers that mentions Trilogy Energy TET =>

http://seekingalpha.com/article/134481-what-is-the-break-even-price-for-natural-gas-producers

FH2NYC
07-28-2010, 10:55 PM
where do you find the lowest premiums on gold coins or are they more or less the same across all sellers? from a quick google search, it appears that premiums vary from place to place. Thank you

FoxTrot
07-28-2010, 10:57 PM
where do you find the lowest premiums on gold coins or are they more or less the same across all sellers? from a quick google search, it appears that premiums vary from place to place. Thank you

Have a look at https://www.sprottmoney.com/.

varebear72
07-28-2010, 11:00 PM
where do you find the lowest premiums on gold coins or are they more or less the same across all sellers? from a quick google search, it appears that premiums vary from place to place. Thank you

Lear Capital is by far the lowest spread I've seen

FoxTrot
07-28-2010, 11:11 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/234091-hewitt-heiserman/61457-rare-cardinal-climax-planetary-alignment-this-summer-puts-stocks-at-risk-says-veteran-sky-watcher

FH2NYC
07-28-2010, 11:19 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/234091-hewitt-heiserman/61457-rare-cardinal-climax-planetary-alignment-this-summer-puts-stocks-at-risk-says-veteran-sky-watcher

scary stuff

Goldbud
07-28-2010, 11:32 PM
Yeah I have a bunch of PMGYF as it is called here.

Right now it is my only holding in stocks. I do not like this market and am waiting patiently to pick up some bargains when it turns as it will.

One thing I have never forgotten is the trend is your friend. Don't try to trade against it. Right now I don't see a real trend. Seems to be a suckers rally.

Tried to purchase PMT (Perpetual energy) through Scottrade. When I searched for the stock code it came up as PMGYF. Google finance shows PMGYF as Paramount and PMT as perpetual. Is this the same company?

Goldbud
07-28-2010, 11:52 PM
MDN finally got their act together in drilling up the Ikungu property in a more serious way .There is where the gold is and and their bread and butter.

Cyclist,

As we search for undervalued miners to purchase in August, is it critical to pick junior miners that have outstanding shares in the area of 50 mil or less?

varebear72
07-28-2010, 11:52 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/234091-hewitt-heiserman/61457-rare-cardinal-climax-planetary-alignment-this-summer-puts-stocks-at-risk-says-veteran-sky-watcher

This will shake people up.....did me

golden66
07-29-2010, 12:04 AM
I have to liquidate some gold within the next 3 weeks..
due to my schedule I haven't been able to stay up on things here this summer. I have been scanning back and from what I see it appears Cyclist is saying 3rd week of Aug is a predicted as a low. Any opinions if it may get closer to $1200 before it takes the dip down or does it look like a gradual decline from here. Any input is appreciated..

Will Wong
07-29-2010, 12:26 AM
Tried to purchase PMT (Perpetual energy) through Scottrade. When I searched for the stock code it came up as PMGYF. Google finance shows PMGYF as Paramount and PMT as perpetual. Is this the same company?


Same company. PMT is on the Toronto exchange. Stateside, it is one of the OTC Pink Sheets. I own some. Last month, they paid a $0.05 dividend.

ILUVPMs
07-29-2010, 01:05 AM
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/234091-hewitt-heiserman/61457-rare-cardinal-climax-planetary-alignment-this-summer-puts-stocks-at-risk-says-veteran-sky-watcher


Cyclist
have you read the above article? Curious to your thoughts

Medina
07-29-2010, 05:02 AM
Dear Cyclist,

What do you see for NatGas upcomming week?

varebear72
07-29-2010, 07:17 AM
After reading Cyclist's prognostication on silver making a new low on or about Aug 20th, and after reading Crawford's prognostication about the coming Cardinal Climax of the planets and how it functions with the market, AND after viewing Adam Hewison's (President of INO.com) video on the S&P's Death Cross (when the 50 DMA crosses below the 200 DMA and has not been done since right before the 1987 crash) I'm starting to get scared to even go outside.

If we had a responsible government and a real President instead of the clown we have I might feel a little better but man o' man, the next 45 days can reset time.

Anybody else's thoughts on what's in store for us?:confused:

Collectivist
07-29-2010, 07:38 AM
This will shake people up.....did me

The direct effects of celestial alignments and such rubbish is not threatening in and of itself, however, more troublesome is the interpretations many elite in business have on such events, as I believe they place great emphasis on such things in the way they 'conduct business'.

Symbolism, astrology and the occult is an important component of secret societies, after all. I would suggest some googling on the subject. You may be surprised.

Don't make the mistake to confuse cause and effect with respect to myths. Myths are powerful in the hands of those who know how to manipulate them for a desired effect on the masses. Carbon in the atmosphere, for example is the result of warmer global temperatures caused by solar activity, however global warming pundits would have you believe carbon effects the temperature on the earth. Very convenient for the justification of carbon tax business.

“Millionaires don’t have astrologers, billionaires do.” J.P. Morgan

Ouroboros
07-29-2010, 08:02 AM
The direct effects of celestial alignments and such rubbish is not threatening in and of itself, however, more troublesome is the interpretations many elite in business have on such events, as I believe they place great emphasis on such things in the way they 'conduct business'.

Symbolism, astrology and the occult is an important component of secret societies, after all. I would suggest some googling on the subject. You may be surprised.

Don't make the mistake to confuse events directly originating from myths but instead understand what actions people take who believe the myth and the indirect effects that result.

“Millionaires don’t have astrologers, billionaires do.” J.P. Morgan


Very true and it's a well know documented fact that Nancy Regan used an astrologer to help her husband conduct White house affairs at certain times to get the best desired effect. Whether there is any truth to it or not is up to the individul to decide, but very powerful people do believe in it.

sriramvr
07-29-2010, 08:38 AM
gold/dow ratio nearing resistance

kasi13
07-29-2010, 08:40 AM
The direct effects of celestial alignments and such rubbish is not threatening in and of itself, however, more troublesome is the interpretations many elite in business have on such events, as I believe they place great emphasis on such things in the way they 'conduct business'.

Symbolism, astrology and the occult is an important component of secret societies, after all. I would suggest some googling on the subject. You may be surprised.

Don't make the mistake to confuse cause and effect with respect to myths. Myths are powerful in the hands of those who know how to manipulate them for a desired effect on the masses. Carbon in the atmosphere, for example is the result of warmer global temperatures caused by solar activity, however global warming pundits would have you believe carbon effects the temperature on the earth. Very convenient for the justification of carbon tax business.

“Millionaires don’t have astrologers, billionaires do.” J.P. Morgan

If I am right you are at conflict within yourself. First you poo-poo that anything could happen Aug 1st but you agree that solar flares are causing the global warming(which is true).

So you agree that the sun can cause harm to the earth so why not an alignment of the planets in a rare formation? Polar shift? It's already moved 9 degrees or more in the last year. Yes you can google that.

a polar flip? I doubt it but something else strange could happen, another sink hole to take California away? another ruptured pipe line to leak more oil to cause more enviromental devistation. A massive Hurricane to destroy the gulf coast? I will definately watch Aug 1st to see what happens, but I definately wouldn't poo-poo it. Just my .02 cents

shubhzu
07-29-2010, 08:42 AM
in my understanding, analysts were off the mark with energy data yesterday.
can same be true with NG storage data estimate of 35 today? what effects do you expect?

varebear72
07-29-2010, 08:49 AM
The direct effects of celestial alignments and such rubbish is not threatening in and of itself, however, more troublesome is the interpretations many elite in business have on such events, as I believe they place great emphasis on such things in the way they 'conduct business'.

Symbolism, astrology and the occult is an important component of secret societies, after all. I would suggest some googling on the subject. You may be surprised.

Don't make the mistake to confuse cause and effect with respect to myths. Myths are powerful in the hands of those who know how to manipulate them for a desired effect on the masses. Carbon in the atmosphere, for example is the result of warmer global temperatures caused by solar activity, however global warming pundits would have you believe carbon effects the temperature on the earth. Very convenient for the justification of carbon tax business.

“Millionaires don’t have astrologers, billionaires do.” J.P. Morgan

Well I did as you suggested and you might do yourself a favor and do the same......what you will read will amaze even the hard core fundamentalist. I am not trying to argue any point other than this kind of wierd stuff can cause a landslide that creates itself....JMHO

MetalMike
07-29-2010, 08:50 AM
It's already moved 9 degrees or more in the last year. Yes you can google that.



Uh.... no
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cataclysmic_pole_shift_hypothesis

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 09:20 AM
Call from CBOT floor - corn up 3-5, beans up 4-6, wheat up 9-11

BagOfGold
07-29-2010, 09:27 AM
All I am saying is that we should realistically question what effect such distant celestial bodies have on our markets. It is far more likely people's reactions to a preconceived idea or myth can have a higher degree of impact on market sentiment than the miniscule gravitational effects of incredibly distant objects.

The sun and moon have a much higher degree of physical influence to the earth and we see this in wave activity as well as temperature fluctuations. To suggest very distant celestial bodies (aligned or not) can change things as drastically is acting on faith, not reason.

But I have an open mind and will consider the effects on the world when such events transpire but to suggest human behavor is directly affected, to me, is quite a stretch.

By the same token, I do not believe man has landed on the moon because of the technological barriers that prevent us from achieving such a feat. I don't care how silly that sounds; my arrival to that conclusion is based on all the evidence I have seen (from both sides). Same as the events of 911.

All the world is a stage and, at the end of the day, as an observer, your own abilitiy to judge truth from fiction is all you have. Blind collective agreement on any particular issue, to me, is a dangerous and lazy way to view the world.

You may believe what you like, and so will I. Just question what those beliefs are and be prepared to change your views as new evidence presents itself, otherwise you will allow yourself to be spoonfed someone else's information that will be used to shape your own real world view.

Well said!...Look at things from your own eyes...instead of other another person's eyes...this will unravel the mysteries within yourself...& enable you to be the person you really are...instead of the "mastah"s" drone slave ideals!!!...:)

Bag Of Gold

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 09:27 AM
Natural gas inventory data is due at 10:30 ET
Natural gas inventory data is due out today at 10:30am ET. Bloomberg reports that analysts are expecting a build of 32 bcf in Natural Gas Inventories during the week ending July 23 (last year natural gas saw a build of 71 bcf); analyst estimates range from a build of 27 bcf to a build of 42 bcf (19 out of 19 analysts are expecting a build); 4 week average is a build of 67 bcf; last week inventories rose 51 bcf to 2891 bcf.

sbsport23
07-29-2010, 09:28 AM
Can we get back to topic on hand? BKX is getting close to having a death cross. Dow had one recently along with S & P. I'm hoping we get a run up to 10700 so I can unload equities and load up on QID.

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 09:30 AM
Impressive export sales 4 wk ending Jul 22 (mln bu) - corn 37.8, soybeans 54.5, wheat 33.8; China buys 8.6 old & 16.9 new beans

MetalsKing
07-29-2010, 09:32 AM
Impressive export sales 4 wk ending Jul 22 (mln bu) - corn 37.8, soybeans 54.5, wheat 33.8; China buys 8.6 old & 16.9 new beans

CRC held 480 and rallied hard, bullish so far but I remain wary as a top could be made. Go nat gas!

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 09:34 AM
Barrick Gold beats by $0.05, beats on revs (40.03)
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.77 per share, $0.05 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.72; revenues rose 34.5% year/year to $2.64 bln vs the $2.61 bln consensus.

MetalsKing
07-29-2010, 09:36 AM
Barrick Gold beats by $0.05, beats on revs (40.03)
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.77 per share, $0.05 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.72; revenues rose 34.5% year/year to $2.64 bln vs the $2.61 bln consensus.

amigo, what's the nat gas consensus numbers today? TIA

MK

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 09:36 AM
CRC held 480 and rallied hard, bullish so far but I remain wary as a top could be made. Go nat gas!



China buys 20K tons old-crop soyoil this AM; Mexico buys 1.2 mln bu old-crop corn & 4.6 mln bu new-crop corn

Today could be a big day for nat gas, if we cant get a draw during this heat wave then when?

Auagmented
07-29-2010, 09:36 AM
Natural gas inventory data is due at 10:30 ET
Natural gas inventory data is due out today at 10:30am ET. Bloomberg reports that analysts are expecting a build of 32 bcf in Natural Gas Inventories during the week ending July 23 (last year natural gas saw a build of 71 bcf); analyst estimates range from a build of 27 bcf to a build of 42 bcf (19 out of 19 analysts are expecting a build); 4 week average is a build of 67 bcf; last week inventories rose 51 bcf to 2891 bcf.

Sorry JG - I'm still earning how to parse NG inventory.
Does this suggest HND is a good move.
HNU has popped this morning - is it like last weeks pump and dump?

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 09:39 AM
Sorry JG - I'm still earning how to parse NG inventory.
Does this suggest HND is a good move.
HNU has popped this morning - is it like last weeks pump and dump?

I don't trade either - MK might be able to answer

MetalsKing
07-29-2010, 09:43 AM
China buys 20K tons old-crop soyoil this AM; Mexico buys 1.2 mln bu old-crop corn & 4.6 mln bu new-crop corn

Today could be a big day for nat gas, if we cant get a draw during this heat wave then when?

yes, as I have pointed out natty gas rallied above resistance and my next objective is 5.10

MK

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 09:44 AM
Bunge reports Q2 (Jun) results, misses on revs; lowers FY10 EPS below consensus (53.97 )
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $11.15 per share, including the $2.4 bln gain on the sale of fertilizer nutrients assets, not be comparable to the Thomson Reuters consensus of $1.28; revenues fell 0.2% year/year to $10.97 bln vs the $12.17 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $3.25-3.50 vs. $5.33 Thomson Reuters consensus, down from $5.30-5.80 previously

very disappointing - will look to add on this sell off. Long term position for me

ILUVPMs
07-29-2010, 09:54 AM
amigo, what's the nat gas consensus numbers today? TIA

MK

Nat gas inventory build is exppected to be 34 MK.
cheers

ILUVPMs
07-29-2010, 09:56 AM
NEW YORK(Dow Jones)--Analysts and traders expect government data
scheduled for release Thursday to show a smaller-than-average build in
gas inventories as a result of hot weather across much of the U.S.
last week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that
34 billion cubic feet of gas were added to storage during the week
ended July 23, according to the average prediction of 22 analysts and
traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.


The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30
a.m. EDT.


The survey's median was also 34 billion cubic feet, with a high of a
51 bcf build and a low of a 22 bcf injection. The storage estimate
falls short of last year's 70 bcf build in storage for the same week
and the five-year average build for that week, which was 50 bcf.


If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of July 23 will
total 2.925 trillion cubic feet, about 9.1% above the five-year
average and 2.9% below last year's level for the same week.


Sweltering temperatures last week in the major gas-consuming regions
sparked considerable demand for natural gas to generate electricity
for air conditioning. The hot weather has been shrinking the surplus
of gas in storage compared with last year's levels and the five-year
average level.


"Temperatures were high across the country last week, making it the
hottest week in terms of cooling demand since 2006," Kent Bayazitoglu,
an analyst with Gelber & Associates in Houston, wrote in a note to
clients. "Persistent heat forecast in the coming weeks looks to keep
injections below those in recent years."


The EIA's weekly storage page is http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html

IdigAU
07-29-2010, 09:59 AM
Dollar broadly lower, gold also lower. The inverse relationship has yet to be re-established. When that returns, likely Dow will tank.

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 10:15 AM
End users on global mkt chasing prices higher; Updated call from CBOT - corn up 3-5, beans up 4-6, wheat up 10-15

MetalsKing
07-29-2010, 10:21 AM
Dollar broadly lower, gold also lower. The inverse relationship has yet to be re-established. When that returns, likely Dow will tank.

agree, stock market looks toppy to me

MK

MetalsKing
07-29-2010, 10:22 AM
Nat gas inventory build is exppected to be 34 MK.
cheers

thanks amigo

ILUVPMs
07-29-2010, 10:26 AM
thanks amigo

Hi There,

Believe nat gas will top soon today. Think that we already had our runup preinventory-same as last week. Inventory report may just bring us down a little.

MetalsKing
07-29-2010, 10:28 AM
Hi There,

Believe nat gas will top soon today. Think that we already had our runup preinventory-same as last week. Inventory report may just bring us down a little.

an important day for sure

Numisgold
07-29-2010, 10:30 AM
The direct effects of celestial alignments and such rubbish is not threatening in and of itself, however, more troublesome is the interpretations many elite in business have on such events, as I believe they place great emphasis on such things in the way they 'conduct business'.

Symbolism, astrology and the occult is an important component of secret societies, after all. I would suggest some googling on the subject. You may be surprised.

Don't make the mistake to confuse cause and effect with respect to myths. Myths are powerful in the hands of those who know how to manipulate them for a desired effect on the masses. Carbon in the atmosphere, for example is the result of warmer global temperatures caused by solar activity, however global warming pundits would have you believe carbon effects the temperature on the earth. Very convenient for the justification of carbon tax business.

“Millionaires don’t have astrologers, billionaires do.” J.P. Morgan

The author of that article gave a 2 week window around August 1st for a major calamity to occur. No doubt that in this huge world of ours there will be some event that will fit the prediction.

Numisgold

MetalsKing
07-29-2010, 10:32 AM
Nat gas plus 28 BCF, under consensus, charts are set up for a rally IMO, will it happen is da biggie. Target is still 5.10

MK

dlhunter
07-29-2010, 10:40 AM
FEL.TO

Fairborne Energy Makes Strategic Land and Facilities Acquisition on Growing Wilrich Gas Play

Is it significant? Looks like FEL is better positioned than BXE

ILUVPMs
07-29-2010, 10:41 AM
Nat gas plus 28 BCF, under consensus, charts are set up for a rally IMO, will it happen is da biggie. Target is still 5.10

MK

28 is good. however, we still have this overhaning supply. Also, weather will probably dissipate this coming month and this may damper demand. Not sure how this will play

Carssman1
07-29-2010, 10:42 AM
Ouch my company's Q3 results blew it hard.. Good time to add even though the Stock plan adds for me automatically monthly.

down 7% today

COV

Glad its money that is being matched to a factor of 15%

Can anyone do thier chart magic on COV and see if there are some cyclical highs in the future and about what timeframe. I imagine there is still alot of downward action to come if the general markets are to take a staircase plunge.

Thanks

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 10:42 AM
Commodities Update: Natural Gas Prices Continue to Climb
Natural gas prices are up solidly for the second straight session. The commodity's price recently got an extra boost from the latest weekly inventory data. Inventories for the week ended July 23 showed a build of 28 bcf, which is less than the build of 32 bcf that had been widely anticipated. Natural gas prices are now up 2.3% to $4.83 per MMBtu. They were as high as $4.87 per MMBtu in the couple of minutes that followed the data's release... Oil prices are also up nicely. The commodity lost 0.7% in the prior session to settle slightly below $77 per barrel, but it is now up to $78.15 per barrel, where it sports a 1.5% gain... As for precious metals, gold prices are up a modest 0.2% to $1163.20 per ounce. Silver has fully retraced its 1.0% loss in the prior session to trade at $17.63 per ounce.

FH2NYC
07-29-2010, 10:48 AM
is it a good time to get into ADM on the dip? Suggestions are appreciated. Thanks

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 10:54 AM
is it a good time to get into ADM on the dip? Suggestions are appreciated. Thanks

I would wait until earnings Aug. 3rd, no need to be a hero. Look at BG today getting wacked on disappointing earning. The company attributed the disappointing second-quarter results to low volumes and margins in agribusiness. It said it sees a more challenging oilseed-crushing market than it had anticipated.

That said ADM stock is cheap.

denaliguide
07-29-2010, 11:04 AM
and tomorrow, and the day after, etc

The author of that article gave a 2 week window around August 1st for a major calamity to occur. No doubt that in this huge world of ours there will be some event that will fit the prediction.

Numisgold

Jayhawk
07-29-2010, 11:23 AM
Ouch my company's Q3 results blew it hard.. Good time to add even though the Stock plan adds for me automatically monthly.

down 7% today

COV

Glad its money that is being matched to a factor of 15%

Can anyone do thier chart magic on COV and see if there are some cyclical highs in the future and about what timeframe. I imagine there is still alot of downward action to come if the general markets are to take a staircase plunge.

Thanks

Looks to me that it's sitting on some key support right now, if this fails you have 33 and change and then 32s for support. Chart looks pretty ugly, but could be close to finding a bottom. Take that with a grain of salt.

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 11:24 AM
Grains survived early profit-taking; corn up 7, beans up 11, wheat up 12 on strong export sales/supply concerns

Cyclist
07-29-2010, 11:26 AM
the play book of 87 is starting to become clearer with bonds,USD and markets dropping today simultaniously. A major market low appears to revolve around the third week of September and possibly a retest in the second week of October.

goose1
07-29-2010, 11:36 AM
Cyclist, is Aug 7th still turn date? Or are we heading down now?

Cyclist
07-29-2010, 11:51 AM
Cyclist, is Aug 7th still turn date? Or are we heading down now?

Weekly cycles give a turn the first week of August,today the stage could
very well be set.However I still see one more one-day run that would be a nice short.At the moment setting up put options on a variety of banks with October expiry and will be adding on strength.Bought as well HXD and HFD today,these are daytrades

TradingTrends
07-29-2010, 12:11 PM
Does the August 7th date mark the beginning of an uptrend or a downtrend? And are you simply talking main markets or gold/silver? I've gone through your posts and I'm just a little unclear. Thanks Cyclist!

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 12:20 PM
St. Louis Fed President Bullard explicitly calls for printing more money now and printing faster.http://bit.ly/clVgoa

One of the most hawkish CBs coming out with such a dovish papers is stunning...

sriramvr
07-29-2010, 12:30 PM
cyclist

buying gold here?

Cyclist
07-29-2010, 12:31 PM
Does the August 7th date mark the beginning of an uptrend or a downtrend? And are you simply talking main markets or gold/silver? I've gone through your posts and I'm just a little unclear. Thanks Cyclist!



The first week of August would be the start of the down trend, as projected, in all markets,with the exception in the commodities energy and the Ag complex.

As mentioned before the States is set in printing its way out of the hole.
With the 33 year cycle of the States the projection is a new currency in the fall of 2013.From now until then we see stagflation first ,to be followed
with inflation.

Gold/silver will find their lows on the 20th of August

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 12:35 PM
Thought everyone would get a kick out of this: Lou, guy behind the deli counter, today told me I should short gold. I can vividly remember the same guy telling me to buy tech stocks in 1999.

Hackswell
07-29-2010, 12:37 PM
Thought everyone would get a kick out of this: Lou, guy behind the deli counter, today told me I should short gold. I can vividly remember the same guy telling me to buy tech stocks in 1999.

You've got your own personal Jim Cramer! Always do the opposite! :D

Cyclist
07-29-2010, 12:41 PM
cyclist

buying gold here?

You buy gold for the longterm,for papertraders it will be a low on the 20th

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 12:43 PM
You've got your own personal Jim Cramer! Always do the opposite! :D

Lou is a great guy & he knows what I do for a living, but I don't tell him how to make my pastrami sandwich.

sriramvr
07-29-2010, 12:53 PM
You buy gold for the longterm,for papertraders it will be a low on the 20th

thanks cyclist

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 12:55 PM
Sales increase after Dec corn fails to take out $4; corn up 3, beans up 10, wheat up 9

Payara
07-29-2010, 12:58 PM
Lou is a great guy & he knows what I do for a living, but I don't tell him how to make my pastrami sandwich.

Sold some tza and bought some tna (slightly more bearlish) as we're near support and if we're going to rally into 8/7, we'll need to make a bottom soon else break support levels and which would trigger stops and potentially show we've completed wave 2 (an abc up) and readying for wave 3 down. stops in place of course. Heading out to watch the Sr. Open. Good luck all

shubhzu
07-29-2010, 01:07 PM
The first week of August would be the start of the down trend, as projected, in all markets,with the exception in the commodities energy and the Ag complex.

As mentioned before the States is set in printing its way out of the hole.
With the 33 year cycle of the States the projection is a new currency in the fall of 2013.From now until then we see stagflation first ,to be followed
with inflation.

Gold/silver will find their lows on the 20th of August

cyclist, will you please care to comment on the outlook of Cu over next 3 months? any targets u can point out?

AnotherCountry
07-29-2010, 01:08 PM
> Gold/silver will find their lows on the 20th of August

Hi Cyclist.

If gold stocks generally lead the metal, and if the metal is hitting a low around August 20th, then is it correct to assume that we should look for lows in the gold stocks before August 20th?

On the other hand, would the declining overall market that you expect to begin the first week of August offset the usual tendency of gold stocks to lead the metal?

Regards,

AnotherCountry

MetalsKing
07-29-2010, 01:11 PM
like the way they tried to sell off natty gas but it's come back, should close easily above break out levels, I am bullish and targeting 5.10

MK

Quad G
07-29-2010, 01:14 PM
Weekly cycles give a turn the first week of August,today the stage could
very well be set.However I still see one more one-day run that would be a nice short.At the moment setting up put options on a variety of banks with October expiry and will be adding on strength.Bought as well HXD and HFD today,these are daytrades

I'm on the same regimine -short the rallies.

I currently favor a 5 week ending diagonal pattern similar to '87 time pattern. But this would require the Dow to stay above 10k, and preferably end wave (iv) down in the next day or two above 10,265. I think first of next week (the 5th and final week) may see some funds buying the first 1-2 days of the month.

If 10k is taken out early, then the Aug 7th turn could still be a very good short tunity as a lower-high.

Upside volume decreasing, downside volume increasing.

USDA reports Aug 12th on US crop yields, so far it's looking rosy, as 5 year average yield looks to be beat by a few points with current crop. However, global demand is driving higher speculation as yields in Europe, Russia and China have taken a hit. Overall I expect to see some selling pressure nearing the 12th, but pull-backs, especially in wheat may provide a good buy point as a long term bottom is likely in place.

Still not sure on Beans and Corn, price still resides inside a bearish triangle wave {B} envelope, While beans are under 1078 and Corn under 427?(Memory failure).


...

FH2NYC
07-29-2010, 01:15 PM
cyclist, will you please care to comment on the outlook of Cu over next 3 months? any targets u can point out?

Best advise from Cyclist:

When anxiety rules have gold
When inflation rules have silver
when a buoyant economy rules have copper

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 01:21 PM
Treasury yields rise after auction results


$29 bln 7-year Note: Yield 2.394% (expected 2.375%); Bid/Cover 2.78x (Prior 3.01x, 12-auctin avg 2.79x); Indirect Bidders 42.3% (Prior 51.1%, 12-auction avg 53.9%)

shubhzu
07-29-2010, 01:22 PM
Best advise from Cyclist:

When anxiety rules have gold
When inflation rules have silver
when a buoyant economy rules have copper

but copper seems to be in a bull run, inspite of economic picture not being that rosy. :confused:

bullau
07-29-2010, 01:25 PM
I'm on the same regimine -short the rallies.

I currently favor a 5 week ending diagonal pattern similar to '87 time pattern. But this would require the Dow to stay above 10k, and preferably end wave (iv) down in the next day or two above 10,265. I think first of next week (the 5th and final week) may see some funds buying the first 1-2 days of the month.

If 10k is taken out early, then the Aug 7th turn could still be a very good short tunity as a lower-high.

Upside volume decreasing, downside volume increasing.

USDA reports Aug 12th on US crop yields, so far it's looking rosy, as 5 year average yield looks to be beat by a few points with current crop. However, global demand is driving higher speculation as yields in Europe, Russia and China have taken a hit. Overall I expect to see some selling pressure nearing the 12th, but pull-backs, especially in wheat may provide a good buy point as a long term bottom is likely in place.

Still not sure on Beans and Corn, price still resides inside a bearish triangle wave {B} envelope, While beans are under 1078 and Corn under 427?(Memory failure).


...

God knows I am a bear especially based on fundamentals but all this talk of an 87 crash is a little premature methinks........Although anything could happen and I wouldn't be surprised by a crash let's not fool ourselves into believing it is inevitable.....Let's keep our minds open.

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 01:35 PM
QEP looks like an interesting naty gas play, anyone familiar with this one?

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 01:45 PM
TBT going to $200?

http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/

Quad G
07-29-2010, 02:10 PM
God knows I am a bear especially based on fundamentals but all this talk of an 87 crash is a little premature methinks........Although anything could happen and I wouldn't be surprised by a crash let's not fool ourselves into believing it is inevitable.....Let's keep our minds open.

Absolutely boss, I take nothing for granted. I'll get long if and when the picture turns and looks convincing. For now I'm staring at plenty of evidnece pointing to a lower index. Gotta go with it. Any move above 10,800 will hit my bear pause button.


...

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 02:16 PM
Potash conf call summary (101.78 +4.07)
Co reaffirms its global potash demand estimate of 55 mln tons. Co also noted that the estimate doesn't have any inventory rebuild in there. Co said they don't think the phosphate industry is going to see the severity of the impact from the Ma'aden phosphate plant in Saudi Arabia than they originally thought. Co provided more color on Ma'aden phosphate plant Saudi Arabia, POT said any appreciable tonnage at the Ma'aden plant will take two years- this is pretty positive for POT and MOS

Co discussed when it might reach an inflection point, which it describes as a point where demand reemerges, supply tightens, and pricing opportunities return. Co said, it has been a difficult question to answer, but recent supply and demand developments lead us to believe that they are rapidly approaching that important juncture. In Russia grain production is expected to decline by around 20%. While Canadian wheat production is forecast to be down 23%. China which places a priority on food self sufficiency is facing significant challenges as a result of adverse weather and nutrient imbalances. This year China is expected to import over 75% of its soybean requirements at the rate of around 1 mln tons per week, along with significant volumes of corn for the first time since 1996. India could reach record import buying be the end of the year.

POT estimate the global Potash producers will have operational capability of ~60 million tons next year. Given anticipated demand, this would result in operating rates higher than 90% of capability reflecting an historically tight market. With these crop prices now up corn, December corn in the $3.90 range, this will be the second most profitable year for corn farmers. There is no inventory in the dealer system, and so the fill that the co is looking at and that concludes at the end of this month and a couple days here, looks incredibly strong. Co said China is importing 1.7-1.8 mln tons of corn, next year could be 3-5 mln; POT's consumption est in China for 2011 is 11 mln tons, up from its prior est of 8.5. Co said, a lot of people think they will be up at the 15 mln ton corn importing range before the end of 2015, but that also doesn't mean they won't be a major potash importer.

DayStar
07-29-2010, 02:32 PM
The author of that article gave a 2 week window around August 1st for a major calamity to occur. No doubt that in this huge world of ours there will be some event that will fit the prediction.

Numisgold
Arch Crawford did research on the correlation of difficult alignment of the planets versus the Dow. His analysis showed that two-thirds of the stock market's worst days occurred in one-third of the calendar year, centered on the Fall Equinox, around Sept. 22-23.

Cyclist does anaysis on other types of cycles and he posts some of his results here. Sometimes Cyclist uses input from astronomy such as full moons and astrologers.

I agree that if you have a big enough window you can probably find some event that correlates, but Arch Crawford seems to have called some very big events correctly, like calling the market top on 24 Aug 1987 and predicting a severe crash thereafter. He said the worst part of the 2008 crash would be on Oct 10, plus or minus 3 days. Turns out Oct. 10 had the largest number of new lows on the NYSE ever, at 1203. On Mar 2, 2009 his headline was "Best Best - Nearby Low". The rebound began on Mar 9. On Sept 4 he warned his subscribers, "When Mars hits the solar eclipse point on Sep. 7th or Sep. 8th, then the U.S. will be at war", but he was off by 3 days.

He says the Cardinal Climax around Aug 1 (25 Jul - 8 Aug) "is the meanest, nastiest, most challenging and most transformational of any planetary phenomena in all of written history". That's a pretty scary statement from a guy with his track record. He is not talking about an earthquake in Peru or a volcano in Indonesia. He is talking a global disaster. Global disaster is not something that validates from run-of-the-mill disasters. He says this is the worst planetry influence in recorded history. Doesn't sound good to me.

DayStar

"To every [thing there is] a season"

"Then God said, "Let there be lights in the expanse of the heavens to separate the day from the night, and let them be for signs and for seasons and for days and years;"

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 02:35 PM
QEP Resources provides production update (29.55 +0.32)
Co announces that Q2 production was 53.7 Bcfe, up 24% yoy. Natural gas comprised 89% of Q2 equivalent production. QEP Energy estimates that it exited Q2 with a net production rate of approximately 655 MMcfed. Co will report full Q2 results tomorrow after the close.

QEP Resources reports Q2 EPS of $0.39 vs. $0.26 in the Q2 last year; revs grew 19.6% to $529.6 mln


QEP Resources initiated before the open with a Overweight at Barclays Capital; tgt $46 (32.49 +1.59)
Barclays Capital initiated QEP with a Overweight and price target of $46 saying QEP appears to have attracted little attention from E&P analysts since its June 30 spin off from Questar. Firm says QEP has high-quality assets, it should deliver growth rates of roughly 2x peers, yet shares trade at ~5.2x 2011E debt-adjusted cash flow vs. closest peers (RRC, SWN and UPL) at ~ 9-10x. Firm also says production growth has been impressive.

Medina
07-29-2010, 02:40 PM
JohnGalt

I really enjoy all your market updates. Keep them comming.

Roonbox
07-29-2010, 02:42 PM
Thanks for the insight Cyclist, much appreciated

FH2NYC
07-29-2010, 02:42 PM
JohnGalt

I really enjoy all your market updates. Keep them comming.

agree - very helpful. thank you

ILUVPMs
07-29-2010, 02:44 PM
cyclist,

you mentioned that this week will be the last of the 5 month contraction for pmt and that it will rally for the next 5 months. seeing that pmt is currently down to 4.95, do you see this as the low before it rallies?

Also, why has pmt been in a downtrend recently with nat gas rising up? I know tha stocks and commodities are not bound to the hip, but its a bit puzzling.

if anyone else can answer this that would be great.

Cheers.

JohnGalt
07-29-2010, 02:46 PM
Ags looking very strong: POT, MOS, AGU, MON. Check out this chart on AGU

http://chart.ly/q9y9fz