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Carssman1
12-08-2010, 03:44 PM
MK,

Noticed on the ? for cyclist you had mentioned sub 21 silver.

Not sure if you play the ratios at all, but do you think it would be wise to swap over to gold at these current ratios or even PT if one had the option?

Also, good work on SA..

Do you think NatGas is to go parabolic now and when does the seasonal NatGas trend end.

Thanks

MetalsKing
12-08-2010, 03:48 PM
MK,

Noticed on the ? for cyclist you had mentioned sub 21 silver.

Not sure if you play the ratios at all, but do you think it would be wise to swap over to gold at these current ratios or even PT if one had the option?

Also, good work on SA..

Do you think NatGas is to go parabolic now and when does the seasonal NatGas trend end.

Thanks

I would guess if both gold and silver decline a lot silver may outperform on the decline as it did on the rise. I don't know about anything "parabolic' in nat gas, I'd be very happy to have it rally to 5 and maybe 6.

MK

Carssman1
12-08-2010, 03:55 PM
I would guess if both gold and silver decline a lot silver may outperform on the decline as it did on the rise. I don't know about anything "parabolic' in nat gas, I'd be very happy to have it rally to 5 and maybe 6.

MK

Do you mess with HNU at all? it is now sitting over 7 and I had a feeling it would make a rise when it hit the 5 dollar level.

Can you explian why it went from $229 all the way $5.20 in two years? was there some reverse split or something that would reduce the value of the stock that much or was it just a suckers rally?

seems like a wild one

Thanks

MetalsKing
12-08-2010, 03:58 PM
PMT at 4.17, yeah! am I getting correct quotes? (j/k)

MK

proudandrenewed
12-08-2010, 04:04 PM
Do you mess with HNU at all? it is now sitting over 7 and I had a feeling it would make a rise when it hit the 5 dollar level.

Can you explian why it went from $229 all the way $5.20 in two years? was there some reverse split or something that would reduce the value of the stock that much or was it just a suckers rally?

seems like a wild one

Thanks

-----------------------

Do you have any ideawhy HNUZF stayed at $3.05 since Nov. 5? :eek: :mad: :confused:

MetalsKing
12-08-2010, 04:07 PM
Do you mess with HNU at all? it is now sitting over 7 and I had a feeling it would make a rise when it hit the 5 dollar level.

Can you explian why it went from $229 all the way $5.20 in two years? was there some reverse split or something that would reduce the value of the stock that much or was it just a suckers rally?

seems like a wild one

Thanks

I don't touch that crap, it's toxic

MK

horton99
12-08-2010, 04:16 PM
Name Change. It is now called HNUZD. Sold mine today at 7.31. :D

BTW - Sold small bite of PMT for extra cash if silver/gold/miners come down again tomorrow. Still holding large position in PMT until January.

-----------------------

Do you have any ideawhy HNUZF stayed at $3.05 since Nov. 5? :eek: :mad: :confused:

horton99
12-08-2010, 04:17 PM
:eek: :D I'm feeling good about still owning it.

PMT at 4.17, yeah! am I getting correct quotes? (j/k)

MK

JohnGalt
12-08-2010, 04:53 PM
I also bought some BXE here at $4, it's a Cyclist stock and I like it as well FWIW.

MK

Thanks MK.

You might want to check out the coal names if you're bullish on nat. gas. Thermal coal prices have been climbing & with the cold weather, shortages overseas, and production problems out of Australia, all add up to very good pricing for coal. The U.S. still produces most of its energy from coal and if nat. gas prices continue to climb there will be less switching by utilities from coal to nat. gas. Further, the EPA has been cracking down on the coal companies through burdensome regulation & the net effect will be less coal produced & higher coal prices. JRCC & ICO are to of my top picks and will be doing more analysis this week to look for other attractive names.

By the way, Cyclist said coal names would move this fall & he was right on again. Great call Cyclist.

Desert Irish
12-08-2010, 07:05 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-08/natural-gas-rises-in-new-york-on-estimates-of-large-inventory-withdrawal.html

proudandrenewed
12-08-2010, 09:44 PM
Name Change. It is now called HNUZD. Sold mine today at 7.31. :D

BTW - Sold small bite of PMT for extra cash if silver/gold/miners come down again tomorrow. Still holding large position in PMT until January.

-----------------------

Thank you very much for the info.
Askingthe question here at the Forum brings more result than where you expect to get it.
I don't know why the name change was not done automatically at Fidelity Investments.
Still OK because now I will have some more to fund for my gold miners on discount. :D

dlhunter
12-09-2010, 09:43 AM
JPM has over 2 bil short SI position, wow

JohnGalt
12-09-2010, 12:45 PM
Demand lifts hard wheat & soyoil; corn lifts on pre-report positioning, while beans are soft; corn up 1, beans down 6, wheat up 0-8

horton99
12-10-2010, 10:26 AM
First Bite Back into HNUZD. 72 cents less than I sold for 2 days ago. Maybe 2 more bites if we get some more downside. FWIW. DYOD.

CarRide
12-10-2010, 12:08 PM
MK, didn't you say last December you didn't like trading much in December? I remember you saying that and I took your advice and stayed out. Best advice I had back then. Thanks again.

Do you feel that way this year? I'm thinking once I get out of this one mess I've got I'm going to follow your advice again. TIA

Platinumb
12-10-2010, 03:47 PM
JPM has over 2 bil short SI position, wow

Eric King of King World News recently interviewed his London contact, who said that Asian buyers of size have trapped the owners of silver shorts. The London contact expects silver and gold to shoot up in price in the next 5 weeks.

JohnGalt
12-10-2010, 04:07 PM
PZG Shake n' Bake

Fresnel
12-12-2010, 08:35 AM
CNBC reports China inflation Jumps to 5.1%, largest driver food prices, also diesel.

No comment on the fact that those aren't included in the US index.

Typical.

MetalsKing
12-12-2010, 09:05 AM
MK, didn't you say last December you didn't like trading much in December? I remember you saying that and I took your advice and stayed out. Best advice I had back then. Thanks again.

Do you feel that way this year? I'm thinking once I get out of this one mess I've got I'm going to follow your advice again. TIA

Yep, and my trading is almost nil now and has been for a few weeks and I'm 90% cash, have a few nat gas stocks, some Southern Arc and nothjing else.

MK

ranbyrd
12-13-2010, 02:37 PM
MK, I messaged Cyclist and you may have seen his reply on NatGas. The indication is maybe a softer move up. I am like you in this market with mostly cash and a few NatGas stocks. Any comments going forward are appreciated. All the Best during the upcoming Holiday Season and thanks for all your comments to the group.

MetalsKing
12-13-2010, 03:25 PM
MK, I messaged Cyclist and you may have seen his reply on NatGas. The indication is maybe a softer move up. I am like you in this market with mostly cash and a few NatGas stocks. Any comments going forward are appreciated. All the Best during the upcoming Holiday Season and thanks for all your comments to the group.

Cyclist deals much more with time then I do, I use my charts. I respect his work immensely and when his stuff and mine agree I get more confident and aggressive. I'll take a look at how my nat gas stuff looks when we get to his time frame, but if my charts look good I may stay with what I have or just tighten stops. Way too hard to say now what I might do.

MK

MetalsKing
12-14-2010, 03:27 PM
interest rates flying higher, bond market really flippin the finger at the fed

MK

MetalsKing
12-14-2010, 03:47 PM
stock market looks like it might of topped today, just my opinion, I'm not trading it. S&P decline to 1180 seems possible

MK

Auspirit
12-14-2010, 08:02 PM
First Pa. now N.Y. banning fracking for natural gas. I am not in the game. Just passing this on for those who are.

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/8105

MetalsKing
12-14-2010, 10:34 PM
Metalsking predicting silver to go to 21 will you be buying ZSL on NYSE or HZD on TSX ??

It's only a possibility and like I have said I am mostly in cash as I prefer not to trade much in December. I am not short silver and while risk is high IMO these are hard markets to trade at this time.

MK

karma
12-15-2010, 02:41 AM
20 day moving ave violated in the UUP chart means a test of the 50 day likley = more weakness in the US $.

Yes more weakness likely till? DEC, week of the 27th?

Should be an interesting week.


DYODD

horton99
12-15-2010, 09:36 AM
MK,

Considering the history with him, I can't believe you don't have him on ignore.

Horton

It's only a possibility and like I have said I am mostly in cash as I prefer not to trade much in December. I am not short silver and while risk is high IMO these are hard markets to trade at this time.

MK

JohnGalt
12-15-2010, 09:37 AM
DoE Inventories due out today at 10:30am ET
Petroleum inventory data is due out today at 10:30am E.T. According to the Bloomberg survey, during the week ending Dec 10, analysts believe that:

* Crude oil inventories had a draw of 2500K (last year crude saw a draw of 3689K); expectations range from a draw of 4200K barrels to a draw of 1000K (16 out of 16 analysts expect a draw); prior 4 week avg is a draw of 2253K.
* Gasoline inventories had a build of 2000K (last year gas saw a build of 879K); expectations range from a build of 750K to a build of 3250K (17 out of 17 analysts expect a build); prior 4 week avg is a build of 907K.
* Distillate fuel inventories had no change from last week (last year distillates saw a draw of 2954K); expectations range from a draw of 3000K to a build of 2250K; (8 analysts expect a build, 2 analysts expect no change from the prior week, and 7 expect a draw); prior 4 week avg is a build of 77K.
* The change in the US refinery utilization rate was 0.00%. Expectations range from -1.50% to +1.30%. Last week's change was +4.90%.

MetalsKing
12-15-2010, 09:39 AM
MK,

Considering the history with him, I can't believe you don't have him on ignore.

Horton

I did, just took him off for a little while to see what he was saying and if I needed to clarify anything. He's back on ignore.

MK

Mellow Yellow
12-15-2010, 10:02 AM
First Pa. now N.Y. banning fracking for natural gas. I am not in the game. Just passing this on for those who are.

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/8105

I believe the ban in PA is municipal Pittsburgh not statewide.

JohnGalt
12-15-2010, 10:30 AM
DoE Inventory Data
Dept of Energy reports that:

* Crude oil inventories had a draw of 9854K (consensus is a draw of 2500K)
* Gasoline inventories had a build of 809K (consensus is a build of 2000K)
* Distillate inventories had a build of 1094K (consensus is no change from last week)
* The change in refinery utilization was 0.50% (consensus was 0.00%)

JohnGalt
12-15-2010, 10:31 AM
Crude oil trades into positive territory following inventory data; now up 21 cents to $88.49

MetalsKing
12-15-2010, 10:35 AM
Why we diversify. The nat gas sector is a prime example, I own PMT which is buried near it's low at 3.90, I still like it long term. The other day I added BXE around 4, today's it's at 4.50 (no news), I own some FEL which is up a little from where I bought it. Never put it all or too much in one stock or sector.

MK

MetalsKing
12-15-2010, 10:36 AM
Crude oil trades into positive territory following inventory data; now up 21 cents to $88.49

Thanks John. Be nice to see a huge nat gas drawdown tomorrow, it's been very cold.

MK

JohnGalt
12-15-2010, 10:46 AM
Thanks John. Be nice to see a huge nat gas drawdown tomorrow, it's been very cold.

MK

I've got my money in coal stocks. The fundamentals are much better, as the EPA is creating a shortage by over-regulating the industry. The cold weather should boost demand; we still get nearly 50% of our electricity from coal generated power plants.

Joe6pack
12-15-2010, 10:49 AM
Thanks John. Be nice to see a huge nat gas drawdown tomorrow, it's been very cold.

MK

I would also very much like to see a draw-down in NG inventories.
Marc Faber believes NG is the best commodity investment today.
UNG is drifting lower, but CHK seems to be heading north the last few days!

MetalsKing
12-15-2010, 10:55 AM
I would also very much like to see a draw-down in NG inventories.
Marc Faber believes NG is the best commodity investment today.
UNG is drifting lower, but CHK seems to be heading north the last few days!

If you have a long term 2-3 yr perspective I agree, I think there are some compelling values. But diversify as always

MK

JohnGalt
12-15-2010, 10:57 AM
US Natural Gas ETF continues to move lower as it leads all decliners in the commodity space with price currently probing 50d sma moving average support @ 5.78 ahead of tomorrows weekly EIA storage data (5.81 -0.05)

LoD (5.79) is currently along the 50d simple moving average as UNG marks its 3rd straight daily decline.

JohnGalt
12-15-2010, 11:02 AM
If you have a long term 2-3 yr perspective I agree, I think there are some compelling values. But diversify as always

MK

Nat. gas names are sure telling a different story than the spot price. Take a look at a two year chart of XEC & you'll see what I mean. I think the stocks are signaling spot price will eventually move higher. Just a matter of time.

horton99
12-15-2010, 11:12 AM
Have been in CHK for some time. It and UPL have been my best performers. Will probably add another bite of HNUZD this pm.

I would also very much like to see a draw-down in NG inventories.
Marc Faber believes NG is the best commodity investment today.
UNG is drifting lower, but CHK seems to be heading north the last few days!

Auspirit
12-15-2010, 12:07 PM
I believe the ban in PA is municipal Pittsburgh not statewide.

Yes, I stand corrected on that. There may be other parts of PA also, but I don't know the facts there. I would guess there is more gas in PA than NY too. Plenty of hot air there in NY though, and a big casino.:rolleyes:

MetalsKing
12-15-2010, 02:25 PM
Interest rates closed near their highs after opening lower, grande move up keeps chuggin along, all of a sudden gold is making new lows at 1382, very interesting

Bond market may be voting on tax package and no fiscal discipline whatsoever and the Fed merrily going on with QE2.

MK

JohnGalt
12-15-2010, 02:38 PM
Question of the day: Where is all that bond money going?

MetalsKing
12-15-2010, 02:43 PM
Question of the day: Where is all that bond money going?

I've been thinking this rapid rate increase could at least cause a rapid decline in commods and stocks for a while (Cyclist's flash crash?), maybe that is beginning? Besides a few nat gas stocks I'm a spectator.

MK

gazelle
12-15-2010, 02:47 PM
Take a look at a two year chart of XEC & you'll see what I mean. I think the stocks are signaling spot price will eventually move higher. Just a matter of time.

XEC is a good one. BPT is another, nice dividend also.

Fresnel
12-15-2010, 05:27 PM
Has anyone done any research on the fracking issue and likelihood of regulatory clampdown. NY just put a moratorium on new wells until July. PA has one in place, although the governor-elect is pro gas. What I read on fracking doesn't sound good despite industry assurances that deep well introduction of chems isn't a problem. EPA has a supposedly objective study underway. Hard to imagine the nation's going to pull rug from under its "energy-salvation", but if environmental concerns reach a tipping point, watch out.

Have had position in Exxon, but put a close stop under it due to vulnerability of XTO. Are there are other significant producers of gas that have extensive non-fracted resources?

Safest play would seem to be on natgas itself, but UNG performs terribly.

Thoughts/comments?

gold_rules
12-16-2010, 09:30 AM
to all the predictors of the world, gold may move over 1400 from here.

JohnGalt
12-16-2010, 09:46 AM
I've been thinking this rapid rate increase could at least cause a rapid decline in commods and stocks for a while (Cyclist's flash crash?), maybe that is beginning? Besides a few nat gas stocks I'm a spectator.

MK

Don't think we'll see a "flash crash" so long as the Fed is priming the pump. Everyone is making a big deal about rates moving up as if it comes as a big surprise. Rates had only one direction to move & that is up. Now, if rates really pop (let's say above 5%) then I think there is reason to pause. I don't think for a second the Fed was comfortable with negative real interest rates.

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 09:53 AM
to all the predictors of the world, gold may move over 1400 from here.

don't blink now cause it's sitting on crucial support, goes much lower and the bloom starts coming off the golden rose, just my opinion and DYODD

MK

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 09:53 AM
Don't think we'll see a "flash crash" so long as the Fed is priming the pump. Everyone is making a big deal about rates moving up as if it comes as a big surprise. Rates had only one direction to move & that is up. Now, if rates really pop (let's say above 5%) then I think there is reason to pause. I don't think for a second the Fed was comfortable with negative real interest rates.


well I disagree, the trading today is very important in commods and metals

MK

FH2NYC
12-16-2010, 09:56 AM
to all the predictors of the world, gold may move over 1400 from here.

looks like 1320 first

JohnGalt
12-16-2010, 10:16 AM
December Philadelphia Fed 24.3 vs 13.0 Briefing.com consensus; November 22.5

All positive for USDX and bond yields, short term negative for the PMs. At some point the focus in the PMs will return to the inflation story, as long as the Fed continues to target unemployment their policies are highly inflationary in my opinion. Also, the manufacturing data is extremely bullish for the industrial commodities.

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 10:21 AM
December Philadelphia Fed 24.3 vs 13.0 Briefing.com consensus; November 22.5

All positive for USDX and bond yields, short term negative for the PMs. At some point the focus in the PMs will return to the inflation story, as long as the Fed continues to target unemployment their policies are highly inflationary in my opinion. Also, the manufacturing data is extremely bullish for the industrial commodities.

Intermediate term risk/reward in commods in general look poor to me, a very large correction seems necessary and likely over next several weeks and months. I can see the possibility of maybe another few percent rise in the CRC commod index, but the risk, and it's very real IMO, is at least a 10-20% decline IMO. Take it FWIW.

MK

Shredmonster
12-16-2010, 10:36 AM
Intermediate term risk/reward in commods in general look poor to me, a very large correction seems necessary and likely over next several weeks and months. I can see the possibility of maybe another few percent rise in the CRC commod index, but the risk, and it's very real IMO, is at least a 10-20% decline IMO. Take it FWIW.

MK

Interesting. What are you basing your prediction of a decline on?

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 10:45 AM
Interesting. What are you basing your prediction of a decline on?

My chart interpretations as always, maybe I'm wrong but then again maybe I'm right

MK

JohnGalt
12-16-2010, 11:19 AM
My chart interpretations as always, maybe I'm wrong but then again maybe I'm right

MK

You could be absolutely correct, as we've moved up this year in a BIG way. I'm not a short term trader so I will continue to buy the dips, especially in the industrial commodities.

MK, if you could post some of your charts that would be great. I would love to see what you see.

JohnGalt
12-16-2010, 11:21 AM
XME just turned GREEN

karma
12-16-2010, 11:34 AM
Intermediate term risk/reward in commods in general look poor to me, a very large correction seems necessary and likely over next several weeks and months. I can see the possibility of maybe another few percent rise in the CRC commod index, but the risk, and it's very real IMO, is at least a 10-20% decline IMO. Take it FWIW.

MK

Interesting.

I'm seeing a major change of course starting week of Dec 27th.
How long it lasts is anyone's guess.

Anyone else getting a sense of the current change that week?

Nice call on BXE btw.



DYODD

horton99
12-16-2010, 11:37 AM
Last 2 bites of HNUZD this morning. One before the report and another after. It's on sale this morning!:D :eek:

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 11:41 AM
You could be absolutely correct, as we've moved up this year in a BIG way. I'm not a short term trader so I will continue to buy the dips, especially in the industrial commodities.

MK, if you could post some of your charts that would be great. I would love to see what you see.

sorry, I don't do that

MK

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 11:44 AM
Interesting.

I'm seeing a major change of course starting week of Dec 27th.
How long it lasts is anyone's guess.

Anyone else getting a sense of the current change that week?

Nice call on BXE btw.



DYODD

Thanks, nice to get one natty gas stock right, PMT getting creamed again yesterday on another Nutall bearish diatribe. I bought a tranche within the past two weeks at 3.91, bought second tranche yesterday at 3.85. Own FEL as well, this is why we diversify.

MK

Carssman1
12-16-2010, 11:44 AM
I will second that nice call for BXE, Never added, but it was nice to see MK's thoughts roll out.

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 11:56 AM
Interesting.

I'm seeing a major change of course starting week of Dec 27th.
How long it lasts is anyone's guess.

Anyone else getting a sense of the current change that week?

Nice call on BXE btw.



DYODD

BTW it would not surprise me if the CRC commod index holds up until that Dec 27 time you have and we might make one more high, not much higher but a possible new high.

MK

Auspirit
12-16-2010, 12:00 PM
looks like 1320 first

Cyclist recently mention support for gold was at 1370 and then 1320. 1370 was just blown through significantly. :eek:

karma
12-16-2010, 12:42 PM
Thanks, nice to get one natty gas stock right, PMT getting creamed again yesterday on another Nutall bearish diatribe. I bought a tranche within the past two weeks at 3.91, bought second tranche yesterday at 3.85. Own FEL as well, this is why we diversify.

MK

I like the way BXE behaves as compared to others.
The ETF's are insane as i know you agree.
Although i do have a stink bid in HNU.TO @ 5.67 just for the he!l of it.

PTM is one i have never purchased, the weekly on it looks ready to turn once the daily turns and heads for higher ground, that may be enough to change its recent momentum but then there's that monthly chart..........

Just my 2cents.


DYODD

karma
12-16-2010, 12:45 PM
Would someone be kind enough to tell me Cyclists turn for Platinum?

Thanks.

3bavboys
12-16-2010, 12:50 PM
...........

karma
12-16-2010, 01:01 PM
...........

Thanks, can some one else confirm that?
I,m looking back through the posts right now, Cyclist has been quite active lately so there are many to go through.

Karma


Indeed that is the date given. The 17th.

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 01:03 PM
Thanks, can some one else confirm that?
I,m looking back through the posts right now, Cyclist has been quite active lately so there are many to go through.

Karma

plat has a chance at uno more run above 1800 then its finito IMO.

MK

Carssman1
12-16-2010, 01:42 PM
plat has a chance at uno more run above 1800 then its finito IMO.

MK

Finito, meaning going back to 850 :)

MetalsKing
12-16-2010, 01:46 PM
Finito, meaning going back to 850 :)

no but maybe 1450

mrchinup
12-16-2010, 02:37 PM
How long can they drive the stock market up? I guess all these companies are making all there money over sea's. How long can they keep sending our jobs over sea's, but the companies still making money here?

tcg1022
12-16-2010, 04:27 PM
How long can they drive the stock market up? I guess all these companies are making all there money over sea's. How long can they keep sending our jobs over sea's, but the companies still making money here?


"They" can drive the market up as long as "they" want. IMO the Ben BerBank is gonna continue to print print print until something happens to turn all this around like a some new technology (space travel, hovering autos, new energy source) etc. I doubt it will happen but it could of course. Like I posted here a long time ago repeatedly. This is going to take alot longer to play out than what anyone here in Kitcoland expects;) or thinks. Look for something major to happen like a market crash perhaps around the summer or fall of 2012 simply because it will Obamas time to pass the problem onto another puppet. Remember when it was Bush's turn to pass the problem onto someone else? "The fundamentals of our economy are strong" :D. If we can meander along until then I would be prepared for the STHF during that timeframe.:cool:

Of course this is all just made up inside my conspiracy laden brainand nothing I post or say should be construed as the truth, the future, or investment advice. DYODD Mon'

Fresnel
12-16-2010, 05:49 PM
Has anyone done any research on the fracking issue and likelihood of regulatory clampdown. NY just put a moratorium on new wells until July. PA has one in place, although the governor-elect is pro gas. What I read on fracking doesn't sound good despite industry assurances that deep well introduction of chems isn't a problem. EPA has a supposedly objective study underway. Hard to imagine the nation's going to pull rug from under its "energy-salvation", but if environmental concerns reach a tipping point, watch out.

Have had position in Exxon, but put a close stop under it due to vulnerability of XTO. Are there are other significant producers of gas that have extensive non-fracted resources?

Safest play would seem to be on natgas itself, but UNG performs terribly.

Thoughts/comments?

I know this is a trading thread, but nobody has any thoughts on this ??

Fresnel
12-17-2010, 10:20 AM
This thread be dead :(

rothko
12-17-2010, 10:38 AM
cyclist mentioned scorpio mining - chart looks like a nice cup and handle imo so I have a small position in today :)

JohnGalt
12-17-2010, 11:53 AM
Andersons, ANDE announces increased cash dividend for the first quarter to $0.11 from $0.09

JohnGalt
12-17-2010, 12:17 PM
Bullish production estimates & solid underlying demand lift grains; corn, beans up 10, wheat up 6; Bullish sentiment

karma
12-17-2010, 01:13 PM
Nat gas dipped below 4 $ for the first time in ten years in dec. bearish. DYODD
I like gold from here.

First time in 10 years?

The_Wise_Salmon
12-17-2010, 01:16 PM
First time in 10 years?

In fruit fly years?

karma
12-17-2010, 01:18 PM
Ahhh got ya!

Makes sense now.

gold_rules
12-17-2010, 01:21 PM
Columbus Gold Corp - Cgt:tsx-v

karma
12-17-2010, 01:28 PM
My bid of 5.67 for HNU.TO didn't get filled.
So close.....

greenbeard
12-17-2010, 01:49 PM
Much longer....


12027

How long can they drive the stock market up?

Auspirit
12-17-2010, 02:54 PM
Jim Cramer just announced that Gold IS money and has been becoming that over the last couple years. He went on to pump NovaGold. And of course you've got to be in the market...(not me) If I heard right he said it's gold to ...... $2,000....in five years. His timing might be a little off on that one. My guess would be 12-24 months.

This time I don't think he is a contrarian indicator.

greenbeard
12-17-2010, 03:25 PM
A call for $2000 in 5 years just shows how clueless he really is.

JohnGalt
12-17-2010, 03:28 PM
the juniors are moven' today EGI, AAU, NSU

JohnGalt
12-17-2010, 03:40 PM
All grain markets remain firm into the close. A shocker today with the Mexicans back...no one expected more ahead of Christmas.

greenbeard
12-17-2010, 04:02 PM
ANDE looking good JG.

All grain markets remain firm into the close. A shocker today with the Mexicans back...no one expected more ahead of Christmas.

JohnGalt
12-17-2010, 04:06 PM
ANDE looking good JG.

I like this one long term & been in it a long, long time. I think these kinds of assets will become increasingly valuable over time.

Bought a little ESA today. Interesting little energy related company reported great numbers today.

patterns
12-17-2010, 05:32 PM
First time in 10 years?

My bad it was dec 2001 the last time natty traded under 4 $ in the month of dec.

karma
12-17-2010, 05:36 PM
My bad it was dec 2001 the last time natty traded under 4 $ in the month of dec.

No Bad,
My Bad, i miss read your post.

Cheers.

mrchinup
12-18-2010, 01:14 PM
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Wilhelm
12-18-2010, 08:06 PM
PMT #1 on the TSX insider buy list Friday.....133,000 shares.....maybe time to dip a toe back in

tothemoon
12-19-2010, 08:31 AM
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Time to buckle down! Thanks for the link.

Do the banks actually carry the risk or does CMHC carry it all?

Perhaps HFD will be a good play in 2011. :eek: :eek:

ChainSawDave
12-19-2010, 05:51 PM
Is cyclist a floor trader or fund manager / expert ?

How did he come to be so sought after for answers on Kitco gold forum ?

Sparkles
12-19-2010, 06:55 PM
WHO is he ?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.....International Man of Mystery...nobody knows and he ain't tellin'.
From what I have been able to deduce, he has many years of experience in the markets, has developed the ability to make future projections from today's and yesterday's facts, and is correct a whole lot more than he's wrong....(although I'm a bit apprehensive about my large underwater position in PMT.TO). As far as I know, he receives no renumeration for the insights he provides and has no website or paid subscription service for which he is drumming up business.
It may be hard to believe in this day and age but it appears that his only motivation is to share his thoughts in the hope that others can profit (or survive) and possibly pay the favor forward for the benefit of others.

ChainSawDave
12-19-2010, 07:28 PM
.....International Man of Mystery...nobody knows and he ain't tellin'.
From what I have been able to deduce, he has many years of experience in the markets, has developed the ability to make future projections from today's and yesterday's facts, and is correct a whole lot more than he's wrong....(although I'm a bit apprehensive about my large underwater position in PMT.TO). As far as I know, he receives no renumeration for the insights he provides and has no website or paid subscription service for which he is drumming up business.
It may be hard to believe in this day and age but it appears that his only motivation is to share his thoughts in the hope that others can profit (or survive) and possibly pay the favor forward for the benefit of others.

thankyou 'Sparkes',
I have another question about CYCLIST > From what you or others can gather, what seems to be his basis of market analysis & opinion ? Is he a technical chart guy ? Does he seem to comment on macro economic trends and events { yes ? } Does he use astrology as I noticed one questioner refer to an "astrologist" - - -hopefully not but wondering.

I read several of his responses and he tends to be brief and to the point in directly answering ABOUT the specific market question, avoiding nuance and personal comment. I did notice one VERY basic and fundamental advice sentence he issued to a questioner who asked about taking a $10,000 credit card advance to invest in the market. CYCLIST soundly advised to avoid debt to be "free".

Auspirit
12-19-2010, 09:07 PM
thankyou 'Sparkes',
I have another question about CYCLIST > From what you or others can gather, what seems to be his basis of market analysis & opinion ? Is he a technical chart guy ? Does he seem to comment on macro economic trends and events { yes ? } Does he use astrology as I noticed one questioner refer to an "astrologist" - - -hopefully not but wondering.

I read several of his responses and he tends to be brief and to the point in directly answering ABOUT the specific market question, avoiding nuance and personal comment. I did notice one VERY basic and fundamental advice sentence he issued to a questioner who asked about taking a $10,000 credit card advance to invest in the market. CYCLIST soundly advised to avoid debt to be "free".

The moderator has requested we not talk about posters. I understand your curiosity but your just a touch over the established line. IMO

JohnGalt
12-20-2010, 11:48 AM
long-term bull on BG

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75098973007

JohnGalt
12-20-2010, 11:51 AM
Coal stocks heating up, JRCC

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JRCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p76279327433

greenbeard
12-20-2010, 12:01 PM
Is JRCC your favorite coal play?

Coal stocks heating up, JRCC

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Numisgold
12-20-2010, 12:17 PM
Coal stocks heating up?

JRCC in particular (+50%) moved sharply upwards the last 2months. Hard to got much hotter than that on an established company. When linking from Stockcharts you get a default $INDU chart unless you select the linkable version underneath the chart.

Numisgold

greenbeard
12-20-2010, 12:20 PM
CHK starting to move to the launch pad.

JohnGalt
12-20-2010, 12:20 PM
It is, really like the management team (have done a great job turning around the business) and the valuation is attractive. The fundamentals are very good for the coal industry. So while the EPA has cracked down on the regulatory environment, no new permits issued in the central appalachian region, it will create a shortage of coal & higher prices. Cold weather is bullish as well & starting to see supply issues overseas.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinese-endure-power-apf-1387415184.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

JohnGalt
12-20-2010, 12:24 PM
Coal stocks heating up?

JRCC in particular (+50%) moved sharply upwards the last 2months. Hard to got much hotter than that on an established company. When linking from Stockcharts you get a default $INDU chart unless you select the linkable version underneath the chart.

Numisgold

thanks, made the change in the link

Panama Mike
12-20-2010, 12:26 PM
The moderator has requested we not talk about posters. I understand your curiosity but your just a touch over the established line. IMO

Funny, I logged in to this forum just now just to ask if anyone knew of a thread or post that explained what the "Cycles" are that Cyclist relies upon. I thought maybe this had been disclosed some time in the past, and didn't want to ask him, if it had been. I think a poster named goldhamster was close to him in some way had info about him at one time, but I never looked into it. I did a search on "cycles" last year and got a lot of astrology type stuff and never investigated any further.
Any references out there?

JohnGalt
12-20-2010, 12:29 PM
Not sure if I posted this but bought a little ESA last Friday. Company reported great numbers.

JohnGalt
12-20-2010, 01:58 PM
Is JRCC your favorite coal play?

Big short squeeze in the coals, check out JRCC. Big short interest

JohnGalt
12-20-2010, 02:36 PM
Looks like a breakout of spot silver 2 hour downtrend line. Expecting fireworks as shorts cover

http://megamata.com/mike/jpg/s20101220e.jpg

proudandrenewed
12-20-2010, 02:47 PM
Looks like a breakout of spot silver 2 hour downtrend line. Expecting fireworks as shorts cover

http://megamata.com/mike/jpg/s20101220e.jpg

-----------------

Thank you very much, JohnGalt, for the insight and the chart. :)

karma
12-20-2010, 02:50 PM
nat gas on a tear today
Still choked my bid wasn't filled on HNU.

BXE still doing wonderfully
Where in the world is FEL?

PMT, looking like the daily is almost out of the trough as is the weekly.

DYODD just my observations and nothing else.

Auspirit
12-20-2010, 04:49 PM
Funny, I logged in to this forum just now just to ask if anyone knew of a thread or post that explained what the "Cycles" are that Cyclist relies upon. I thought maybe this had been disclosed some time in the past, and didn't want to ask him, if it had been. I think a poster named goldhamster was close to him in some way had info about him at one time, but I never looked into it. I did a search on "cycles" last year and got a lot of astrology type stuff and never investigated any further.
Any references out there?

If you post on Agoldhamster's thread, PM him or go to his website you can get contact information about this. I think there is an Association for the Study of Cycles or some such thing that keeps track of lots of different cycles.

Numisgold
12-20-2010, 11:58 PM
Looks like a breakout of spot silver 2 hour downtrend line. Expecting fireworks as shorts cover

http://megamata.com/mike/jpg/s20101220e.jpg

Platinum shows a nearly identical pattern, but it goes back all the way to early November. Agree, that fireworks could be in order shortly for several of the metals.

Numisgold

JohnGalt
12-21-2010, 09:43 AM
Cotton futures lock limit up, coffee futures highest since 1997, copper all time high, but there's no inflation.

JohnGalt
12-21-2010, 10:16 AM
http://chart.ly/v5ppmqc

powerful charts

JohnGalt
12-21-2010, 10:54 AM
Fert's getting some nice action - worth eying AGU CF MOS MON POT etc.

JohnGalt
12-21-2010, 10:59 AM
Corn toying with the old 605 high; beans 1324...

JohnGalt
12-21-2010, 11:02 AM
RGLD - this illiquid gold stock tends to lead the trend

JohnGalt
12-21-2010, 11:08 AM
Markets grinding higher with beans and bean oil leading way.

JohnGalt
12-21-2010, 11:14 AM
Coal stocks continue to ramp intra-day. PCX leading this group higher. JRCC looks good as well

Numisgold
12-21-2010, 11:39 AM
Big short squeeze in the coals, check out JRCC. Big short interest

Nice call on the coals JohnGalt.

Numisgold

JohnGalt
12-21-2010, 12:37 PM
Nice call on the coals JohnGalt.

Numisgold

thanks been in JRCC for two years - looks like the shorts are trapped if market holds up

Fateswarning
12-21-2010, 01:32 PM
I havent posted in a while but Ill share my summary which fits in mostly with Cyclist's views.

There have been 12 mid term elections in the past 50 years, and EVERY time (all 12) afterwards the SPX rallied an anverage of 20% within 8 months. This puts us around June. All cyclical bulls in the past 50 years lasted over 2 years. So far were up about 4% since the election so we have 16% higher to hit the average.

SPX topped out in 2000 and 2007 in the 1500's. I would expect we get a top close to 1500 again based on the secular bear/cyclical bull cycles
SPX dropped the last 3 january's in a row. 2 of those were in a bear market though.

In the past 5 years, every gold peak ended in a parabolic spike followed by a correctioin. We have formed a high level base past 2 months similair to 2007 before the 2nd leg up. There are similair continuation patterns on long term chart.

Major Gold peaks happen at 1.25x the 200 day ma or a little higher. 1.25x is currently around 1557 and rising $20 per month.

January is the month where pm stocks historically decouple from SPX. in jan 08 and 09, pm stocks rocketed higher with gold while the spx was tanking. Although gold stocks did better than silver.

Based on the gold base formed, 1.25x rule, and seasonals, the probability of gold peaking in 2nd week of january is very low unless it shoots straight up close to 1550. THe only reason it corrected last january was we had an anomoly with the first major peak ever in this secular bull happening in the fall (dec), and it hit 1.25x 200 day ma and we got a major correction.

Gold always puts in a low in March so we should expect it as Cyclist mentioned.

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/mteral.htm

http://www.zealllc.com/2009/bearcyc.htm spx bear cycles.


http://www.zealllc.com/2010/gscheap2.htm gold stocks cheap

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19205/you-aint-seen-nothing-yet HUI will probably explode since we have broke out, i wont sell in mid jan unless gold hits 1.25x 200 day

My holdings largest first: slw, gdxj, ng, svm, ngd, swc, bexp

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/spxlives.htm


http://www.zealllc.com/2010/goldseas5.htm seasonals.

JohnGalt
12-22-2010, 10:40 AM
DoE Inventory Data
Dept of Energy reports that:

* Crude oil inventories had a draw of 5333K (consensus is a draw of 3400K)
* Gasoline inventories had a build of 2400K (consensus is a build of 1500K)
* Distillate inventories had a draw of 589K (consensus is no change from last week)
* The change in refinery utilization was 0.3% (consensus was 0.00%)

Need to see $91 taken out

lowcommotion
12-22-2010, 11:05 AM
I havent posted in a while but Ill share my summary which fits in mostly with Cyclist's views.

There have been 12 mid term elections in the past 50 years, and EVERY time (all 12) afterwards the SPX rallied an anverage of 20% within 8 months. This puts us around June. All cyclical bulls in the past 50 years lasted over 2 years. So far were up about 4% since the election so we have 16% higher to hit the average.

SPX topped out in 2000 and 2007 in the 1500's. I would expect we get a top close to 1500 again based on the secular bear/cyclical bull cycles
SPX dropped the last 3 january's in a row. 2 of those were in a bear market though.

In the past 10 years, every gold peak ended in a parabolic spike followed by a correctioin. We have formed a high level base past 2 months similair to 2007 before the 2nd leg up. There are similair continuation patterns on long term chart.

Major Gold peaks happen at 1.25x the 200 day ma or a little higher. 1.25x is currently around 1557 and rising $20 per month.

January is the month where pm stocks historically decouple from SPX. in jan 08 and 09, pm stocks rocketed higher with gold while the spx was tanking. Although gold stocks did better than silver.

Based on the gold base formed, 1.25x rule, and seasonals, the probability of gold peaking in 2nd week of january is very low unless it shoots straight up close to 1550. Gold has rallied 10/11 january's. THe only reason it corrected last year is we had an anomoly with the first major peak ever in this secular bull happening in the fall (dec), and it hit 1.25x 200 day ma and we got a major correction.

Gold always puts in a low in March so we should expect it as Cyclist mentioned.

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/mteral.htm

http://www.zealllc.com/2009/bearcyc.htm spx bear cycles.


http://www.zealllc.com/2010/gscheap2.htm gold stocks cheap

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19205/you-aint-seen-nothing-yet HUI will probably explode since we have broke out, i wont sell in mid jan unless gold hits 1.25x 200 day

My holdings largest first: slw, gdxj, ng, svm, ngd, swc, bexp

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/spxlives.htm


http://www.zealllc.com/2010/goldseas5.htm seasonals.

Glad to see you back. Adam seems to me to be one of the most
credible forecasters. Always enjoy his work. Hope you keep us
up to date but I really should have subscribed myself. Just keep putting
it off.

wanderyr
12-22-2010, 02:19 PM
Hi Guys/Gals,

I just posted about Avalon Rare Metals in another thread. If you own the pinks, you might want to look :)

https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1177530&postcount=2348

Happy Holidays,
wanderyr

petruchio2100
12-22-2010, 02:35 PM
(re: your query in other thread) in a deflationary move even goldstocks could move down some. it does not mean they do not go up 300% and more overall: things that trend strongly up at times move down as they trend up, which is what Cyclist was saying. thinking making that call implies bearishness on goldstocks (or worse) is surprising, as having someone around who calls such [I]sub-cycles[I] should be on your radar by now?

JohnGalt
12-22-2010, 02:47 PM
like the action in BG today, very undervalued Ag play

snogroove
12-22-2010, 03:42 PM
I havent posted in a while but Ill share my summary which fits in mostly with Cyclist's views.
My holdings largest first: slw, gdxj, ng, svm, ngd, swc, bexp

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/spxlives.htm


http://www.zealllc.com/2010/goldseas5.htm seasonals.

Silver Wheaton has been doing great but I'm scared about the 50+ P/E ratio. Could you explain why it's still a good deal?

Thanks.

Fateswarning
12-22-2010, 04:24 PM
PE should not be used in evaluating miners to due so many variables affecting earnings. Reserves, cash flow, and production are much more important. SLW is not a miner so you cant compare it to the miners. Read all my posts in this thread on SLW and what zeal had to say this week.


http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?m=tm&bn=23159&tid=105973&mid=106007&tof=2&rt=2&frt=2&off=1

petruchio2100
12-22-2010, 04:42 PM
Prior to QE2 an intelligent person (like everyone here) who didn't get that the financial system is unsound was merely negligent with respect to their own due self-interest (it does take some effort to research the fundamentals and implications of the OTC CDS market). Now (with QE2 in your face) one has to question a man's perspicacity if he is in the market but doesn't see what is going on. Bernanke is not insane at the wheel: the flood and froth of the liquidity bath can mean only one thing, that the financial institutions need it to float on. (Jobs could be created by creating jobs.) The fear is that prices of phony paper assets will go down and create a fi. insitution bust. But the structure and general nature of present banking and finance virtually guarantee that sooner or later this bust will happen (kudos to jim sinclair, taleb, hudson, lewis, armstrong and a few others who have made the relevant facts accessible to non-experts). Hence the desperate moves (such as POMO's once or twice a day almost every day, think about what that implies). Because the liquidity is unleashed by buying Treasuries, even they are hard to short. Are we not furtunate that we can run to PM's? Were it not for that, only landowners and the connected would have a real financial chance.

A few good people (such as Cyclist) are trying to help you to help yourself by showing you how to get a financial I.Q., while the 99% are trying to alarm you and/or stake out some "real estate" in your brain. But not everyone is a sellout; in fact the demonstrable truth is that people are genuinely good (seeing as every normal person has a conscience and will only do bad if they mistakenly perceive some good in it, or if they have been mentally warped. [Yes people do often ignore their consciences, hence the various qualifications in the previous sentence, plus the following reference to ignorance]): Ignorance, however, is a choice: do not choose it and you cannot mistake the wisdom of others. You might even survive QE2 etc.!

Phew! (this keyboard is no good): Merry Christmas! (Disclosure: i work for no one and sell nothing--except my own personal transitory financial positions, of course.)

BusinessAl
12-22-2010, 05:55 PM
the dollar holds the answer IMO

MetalsKing
12-22-2010, 06:07 PM
FWIW gold stocks (XAU, GDXJ, etc) are not acting or looking very good to me. Maybe it's year end stuff or maybe it's a warning, my 2cents. I remain 90% in cash with some nat gas stocks.

MK

Coolbreeze
12-22-2010, 08:30 PM
FWIW gold stocks (XAU, GDXJ, etc) are not acting or looking very good to me. Maybe it's year end stuff or maybe it's a warning, my 2cents. I remain 90% in cash with some nat gas stocks.

MK

MK whats your take on NG? recent action is very bearish, I'm still holding PMT but its back once again at the bottom end of support.

Numisgold
12-22-2010, 11:17 PM
FWIW gold stocks (XAU, GDXJ, etc) are not acting or looking very good to me. Maybe it's year end stuff or maybe it's a warning, my 2cents. I remain 90% in cash with some nat gas stocks.

MK

I too was surprised at today's action but especially in the better junior miners that had been doing well: NSU, ANV, AZK, FRG, NG, UXG, RBY, GRS, EGI, THM, GBG. The seniors really didn't see this action. A number of the better juniors closed under the 20 or even the 50 dma's. GDX was repelled away from the 20 dma while GDXJ & GLDX just closed under it. USERX, which often acts a nice overall gold market surrogate is in a 5th leg down heading towards the 50 dma. The 10 and 20 dma are crossing. It looks like it needs a longer 5th leg still to complete the pattern. It too bounced sharply away from the 20 dma today. RSI just broke below 50. And the uptrend line was just penetrated. GSR looks to be trying to make turn up from 47 after 5 steps down from mid-November. With expiration next week and 3 TBond auctions (Mon-Wed), I don't see why TPTB wouldn't take a whack at gold by mid-next week.

USERX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25172672452

Numisgold

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 10:35 AM
IVN Jun 30 calls - 4K trade with stock at 23.87

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 10:43 AM
looks like they want the ferts again: AGU, MOS, POT, IPI

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 10:50 AM
Natural Gas Data
Natural gas inventory showed a draw of 184 bcf, analysts were expecting a draw of 180 bcf, with ests ranging from a draw of 194 bcf to a draw of 162 bcf.

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 10:59 AM
Agree 100% + other opportunities outside of PMs. Bot some TOD, Todd Shipyards Corp. this AM. Blow out numbers, apparently ship repair is a hot industry...crazy numbers.


TOD Todd Shipyards Corp. has agreed to be acquired by Vigor Industrial LLC for about $130 million in cash, $22.27 per share

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 11:39 AM
March beans just set new highs. Its nice to be long Ags into the holidays!

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 12:01 PM
AUD/USD back above parity

lowcommotion
12-23-2010, 12:07 PM
Anybody know what caused the spike in AVL yesterday?

Arcturus
12-23-2010, 12:24 PM
Anybody know what caused the spike in AVL yesterday?

The spike up was newly being listed on NYSE AMEX. The spike down was profit taking after 20% rise after the new listing. IMO

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 12:36 PM
Market way too bullish: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

MetalsKing
12-23-2010, 01:00 PM
Market way too bullish: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

ridiculously one sided, top is probably nearby, my charts look toppy

MK

udhay28
12-23-2010, 01:03 PM
ridiculously one sided, top is probably nearby, my charts look toppy

MK

Crude posting short term top here around USD 92 ?

patterns
12-23-2010, 01:04 PM
Bad year for nat gas prob some tax loss selling could over shoot on down side and could be buying opp. For short term only. DYODD

gada1999
12-23-2010, 01:16 PM
I read on web that SAXO BANK forecasts 10 shocking issues, last but not least of them for 2011 is gold will increase from 1400 to 1800 USD/Oz. That sounds fair enough for me. Anyone thinks differently?

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 01:38 PM
ridiculously one sided, top is probably nearby, my charts look toppy

MK

MK - what are your thoughts on crude here? Thought it was important to take out $91 which we did.

MetalsKing
12-23-2010, 02:09 PM
MK - what are your thoughts on crude here? Thought it was important to take out $91 which we did.

topping I think but I can't say I have much conviction

MK

JohnGalt
12-23-2010, 02:10 PM
thought this was interesting as it pertains to Ags: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/theres-a-mini-ice-age-coming-says-man-who-beats-weather-experts-20101221-1945a.html

ynot2k
12-23-2010, 03:05 PM
Hi Folks,

Kitco has added a new forum group section called the "General Stock Market Investing Discussion Group" General Stock Market Investing discussion group (https://www.kitcomm.com/forumdisplay.php?f=45)

Please check it out and start threads on aspects of Stock Market Investing that you are interested in. Some current threads already there to check out and participate in are as follows:

Welcome to the General Stock Market Investing discussion group! (https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=73087)
Thread started by SuperMod

Researching the best investment choices. (https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=73106)
Thread started by SuperMod

Short tem trading (https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=73105)
Thread started by SuperMod

Small business stocks (https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=73104)
Thread started by SuperMod

Miners vs. costs (https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=73100)
Thread started by litemine

Steel stocks (https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=73090)
Thread started by Mach1


"Come on down" and post or start your own thread!

Regards...

petruchio2100
12-24-2010, 12:35 AM
the dollar holds the answer IMO
indeed: open your "inner eye" by stepwise building up of a good life, and failure becomes literally impossible: even death itself is a welcome cycle to a man become whole. (or you meant something else?!) ;-)

denaliguide
12-24-2010, 02:12 PM
may Peace and Justice reign on Earth.

DG

zerozero
12-24-2010, 02:24 PM
may Peace and Justice reign on Earth.

DG

Amen!
:cool:

Hackswell
12-28-2010, 11:19 AM
Another EuroZone hole in the dike....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/next-european-leg-down-first-failed-ecb-monetization-sterilization-central-bank-has-e13-bill


Today, to little fanfare, the ECB managed to obtain just E60.8 billion in tender interest for its most recent 7 Day SMP "peripheral bond monetization" operation, whereby it needed at least E73.5 billion to be able to offload all of its cumulative acquired sovereign bonds to other financial institutions: a de facto sterilization, which is why the ECB has so far been claiming it is not monetizing debt (as it constantly rolls the held balance on other bank balance sheets). That is no more: following today, the ECB is left with just under E13 billion in sovereign holdings and thus are not sterilized....

Docaroo
12-28-2010, 01:43 PM
The Wall Street Journal is highlighting it's own analysis that 98 American banks that received TARP money have significant risk of failing:


"Nearly 100 U.S. banks that got bailout funds from the federal government show signs they are in jeopardy of failing. The total, based on an analysis of third-quarter financial results by The Wall Street Journal, is up from 86 in the second quarter, reflecting eroding capital levels, a pileup of bad loans and warnings from regulators. The 98 banks in shaky condition got more than $4.2 billion in infusions from the Treasury Department under the Troubled Asset Relief Program."

"When TARP was created in the heat of the financial crisis, government officials said it would help only healthy banks. The depth of today's problems for some of the institutions, however, suggests that a number of them were in parlous shape from the beginning."

Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203568004576044014219791114.html?m od=googlenews_wsj

Combine that with falling real estate prices (Case-Shiller), higher commodity prices (esp. oil), weakening consumer sentiment (December Consumer Confidence Index), and Europe ready to crack.... the stage is set for a very crazy January/February ride.

Will the new Congress draw a line in the sand for Beernanke? Will a Wikileaks release about a certain bank be the straw that breaks the camel's back?

If Goldman Sachs says that 2011 gold could go to $1650, I'll wager another 10% on top of that prediction to cover for "Banker's Conservative Advice".

I hear the rumble in the jungle... :cool:

Wilhelm
12-28-2010, 04:09 PM
MK, are you still ultra-bearish on silver in light of todays pit session close above $30?

Docaroo
12-28-2010, 04:29 PM
Market watchers will turn their attention later this week to the Department of Energy's update on U.S. oil and fuel inventories. The DOE is scheduled to report inventories at 11 a.m. EST Thursday, a day later than usual due to the Christmas holiday.

blatant
12-28-2010, 09:21 PM
from 2047 to this page the majority is john galt......give it a break son, allow other people to contribute. We realize you're excited but really. "Who is John Galt...?"

bsd777
12-28-2010, 09:55 PM
from 2047 to this page the majority is john galt......give it a break son, allow other people to contribute. We realize you're excited but really. "Who is John Galt...?"

I respectfully disagree. JG and MK keep this thread alive. Thanks fellas!

MetalsKing
12-29-2010, 01:16 AM
MK, are you still ultra-bearish on silver in light of todays pit session close above $30?


let's just say the long side IMO is very risky IMO and leave it at that.

MK

regularguy
12-29-2010, 01:26 AM
from 2047 to this page the majority is john galt......give it a break son, allow other people to contribute. We realize you're excited but really. "Who is John Galt...?"

Others can contribute as much as they like, just seems like most took some time off. I would contribute if I was smart enough to do so. Unfortunately for me I am not.

I do not understand much of what JG says since I am a nube but he seems to be on the right track and I appreciate posts from him and all others. I think the more the merrier.

regularguy
12-29-2010, 01:30 AM
Are still still mostly out of the market at this time. Any thoughts to when and what you may get into?

gazelle
12-29-2010, 06:16 AM
let's just say the long side IMO is very risky IMO and leave it at that.MK

FWIW, I'm expecting gold, silver and the S&P to hit record highs by 12-31-2010. What happens after that is not clear, but there are ominous signs of a major market turn occurring during the first week of January.

MetalsKing
12-29-2010, 08:04 AM
Are still still mostly out of the market at this time. Any thoughts to when and what you may get into?

I've been very consistent in my avoiding December approach as I have previously stated. I have enjoyed the holidays and avoided doing any trading except for some modest nat gas positions. I am getting a little bit interested in the short side of many markets but have not come close to doing anything.

MK

MetalsKing
12-29-2010, 08:05 AM
FWIW, I'm expecting gold, silver and the S&P to hit record highs by 12-31-2010. What happens after that is not clear, but there are ominous signs of a major market turn occurring during the first week of January.

we basically agree, though gold seems weaker than silver

MK

eqrgargbargb
12-29-2010, 09:06 AM
let's just say the long side IMO is very risky IMO and leave it at that.

MK

I presume that you are talking in terms of day trading or short term rather than long term or this being 'the top'?

Long side risks here not enough to be selling physical?

gazelle
12-29-2010, 09:08 AM
we basically agree, though gold seems weaker than silver MK

March silver could make a stab at 31.00 today (closed at 30.33 yesterday).

MetalsKing
12-29-2010, 09:13 AM
I presume that you are talking in terms of day trading or short term rather than long term or this being 'the top'?

Long side risks here not enough to be selling physical?

one never knows

MK

tcg1022
12-29-2010, 09:55 AM
one never knows

MK


All we have for sure is Here n Now. Tomorrow is not a guarantee to any of us.


Im bulllish on silver long term fwiw

MetalsKing
12-29-2010, 10:01 AM
All we have for sure is Here n Now. Tomorrow is not a guarantee to any of us.


Im bulllish on silver long term fwiw

I think we are at the point where only the piggy's don't make money, take it FWIW.

MK

Coolbreeze
12-29-2010, 10:24 AM
I've been very consistent in my avoiding December approach as I have previously stated. I have enjoyed the holidays and avoided doing any trading except for some modest nat gas positions. I am getting a little bit interested in the short side of many markets but have not come close to doing anything.

MK

MK what do you think of UNG & PMT? Hit bottom and now seems to have started (once again) to be bouncing up. Any chance left here for a bear market rally?

MetalsKing
12-29-2010, 10:26 AM
MK what do you think of UNG & PMT? Hit bottom and now seems to have started (once again) to be bouncing up. Any chance left here for a bear market rally?

who knows, at least BXE has performed well

MK

Carssman1
12-29-2010, 10:33 AM
The PM juniors are doing great,, everything is GREEEN!!!!!!


BAM!

udhay28
12-29-2010, 10:38 AM
sell signal in DJIA :rolleyes:

regularguy
12-29-2010, 10:50 AM
MK what do you think of UNG & PMT? Hit bottom and now seems to have started (once again) to be bouncing up. Any chance left here for a bear market rally?

I am not MK but I will offer my twe cents for what it is worth. I just bailed on all my Nat gas positions this morning. That is why I asked MK for his thoughts. I have held them since the fall and lost a lot of money. I was hoping for a winter rally. It never showed up as I hoped. I think there may be a pop here or in the next week or two but then a crash. Gas can go cheaper than where it is now. Too much supply and storage. Cost to store this gas eats into any profits one would get with minor increases in price. The only thing that worries me is it seems to obvious to short gas in a week or two and ride it down into the spring. We know what can happen when things seem obvious, they go the other way.

greenbeard
12-29-2010, 11:03 AM
Lots of cheap dollars out looking for a home and NG is on of the few cheap places to park it. The amount of fear in Gold, NG and commodities in general is very bullish. IMO this rodeo can continue a lot longer than people can possibly imagine. We are in the early stages of a historical commodities bull market. Don't miss out.

I am not MK but I will offer my twe cents for what it is worth. I just bailed on all my Nat gas positions this morning. That is why I asked MK for his thoughts. I have held them since the fall and lost a lot of money. I was hoping for a winter rally. It never showed up as I hoped. I think there may be a pop here or in the next week or two but then a crash. Gas can go cheaper than where it is now. Too much supply and storage. Cost to store this gas eats into any profits one would get with minor increases in price. The only thing that worries me is it seems to obvious to short gas in a week or two and ride it down into the spring. We know what can happen when things seem obvious, they go the other way.

Arcturus
12-29-2010, 11:14 AM
Lots of cheap dollars out looking for a home and NG is on of the few cheap places to park it. The amount of fear in Gold, NG and commodities in general is very bullish. IMO this rodeo can continue a lot longer than people can possibly imagine. We are in the early stages of a historical commodities bull market. Don't miss out.

Not sure where you see the fear in gold unless you are talking mainstream media and MK. Since this is discussion inre Cyclist, I have never heard of fear from his perspective on gold. Accumulate physical gold is his message.

edit: I agree with you Greenbeard

Joe6pack
12-29-2010, 11:43 AM
I am not MK but I will offer my twe cents for what it is worth. I just bailed on all my Nat gas positions this morning. That is why I asked MK for his thoughts. I have held them since the fall and lost a lot of money. I was hoping for a winter rally. It never showed up as I hoped. I think there may be a pop here or in the next week or two but then a crash. Gas can go cheaper than where it is now. Too much supply and storage. Cost to store this gas eats into any profits one would get with minor increases in price. The only thing that worries me is it seems to obvious to short gas in a week or two and ride it down into the spring. We know what can happen when things seem obvious, they go the other way.

Stop wasting your time & money on UNG (ETF are shorting vehicles). If you want to invest in NG buy CHK.

dlhunter
12-29-2010, 11:43 AM
Don't have MK's wisdom nor experience, but I bailed on all my positions in trading account. Should I have waited a little while, my profits would have been much higher, but hey, a profit is still a profit:)
Don't like divergences, IMO we go a little higher from here and then correct first week of January. Some stocks look tired and over extended. Just my opinion.

horton99
12-29-2010, 04:10 PM
I am now 25% in cash. Sold some miners and SLV today. Sold half of my HNUZD. Will probably sell the rest after storage report tomorrow. Will start selling HGT, FCG, CHK, SWN, UPL, PMGYF very soon. After todays rally in the penny miners:D I am almost back to upper rail for NAV this year. January might be a rough month????:eek:

MetalsKing
12-30-2010, 09:52 AM
Shorted silver using ZSL the leveraged ETF, price was 9.93 This is a very aggressive trade and I have a tight stop using the 30.93 high in the March contract. This may only be a day trade or I could get stopped out very quickly. DYODD and this is just my opinion and a stab attempt only.

MK

MetalsKing
12-30-2010, 11:31 AM
getting an early warning that CRC commod index may have put in a good top. FWIW

MK

Bradford
12-30-2010, 12:23 PM
Stop wasting your time & money on UNG (ETF are shorting vehicles). If you want to invest in NG buy CHK.

Joe,
A member of my investment group has worked in the Nat.Gas
business for many decades, and earlier this year he warned us
off Chesapeake.
He sites bullcrap accounting, and a long history of not paying
their bills as reasons to steer clear.
Rather like a silver investor putting his money in SLV, a chance
is taken that the #%it could hit the fan at any time. No one
knows how long their game might play.
I've been in and out of ERF, Enerplus a few times and have made
out pretty well.
In the last 6 months CHK is up 25%, while ERF is up 46%.
And their Div. yield is 6.90%. A lot better than CHK's 1.20
I agree, ETF's are best for shorting, and UNG is a dog.

Bradford

Medina
12-30-2010, 02:02 PM
Check Sugar today, -10pct.

greenbeard
12-30-2010, 02:12 PM
Good entry point.

Check Sugar today, -10pct.

JohnGalt
12-30-2010, 02:16 PM
Perhaps I am mistaken, but I understood that Cyclist was referring to what I call " trackable plastic ". In that sense there is no difference in debit and credit cards. You might be surprised to know the number of people who have neither credit nor debit cards, nor even simple bank accounts.

This is completely anecdotal but I have noticed an increase in credit card applications in the mail over the past several week; its gone from none to 2 or three per day. I think the American consumer is in better shape than most people think. The past two years the consumer has been paying down debt at record pace.

JohnGalt
12-30-2010, 02:21 PM
Coal remains a sector outperformer today, quietly notching new 52-week highs (47.36) for the 2nd straight session, paced by top performers ANR (+5.2%), WLT (+3.3%), & ACI (+2.45%) all hitting new 52-week highs (47.36 +0.40)
Others in the group include JOYG (+0.45%), CNX (+0.15%), & BTU (+1.15%).

JohnGalt
12-30-2010, 02:43 PM
Chicago PMI jumps to a 22-year high, while the Prices Paid Component hits a high level not seen since 2008 - inflation anyone?

MarcV
12-30-2010, 04:17 PM
. The past two years the consumer has been paying down debt at record pace.

According to a recent WSJ article, that paydown is only 3.5%. The financial crisis is now forgotten.

It pointed out that government debt has increased at the same time by more than consumer debt has fallen, so total U.S. debt has actually increased, not decreased. :(

The_Wise_Salmon
12-30-2010, 11:43 PM
Chicago PMI jumps to a 22-year high, while the Prices Paid Component hits a high level not seen since 2008 - inflation anyone?

I'll take two please...

tcg1022
12-31-2010, 04:49 AM
This is completely anecdotal but I have noticed an increase in credit card applications in the mail over the past several week; its gone from none to 2 or three per day. I think the American consumer is in better shape than most people think. The past two years the consumer has been paying down debt at record pace.


As busy as the shops were around the holidays I have no doubt your right!

denaliguide
12-31-2010, 10:54 AM
thanks for your yeoman duty here on Cyclist's board over the last year.

Let me wish all of you the best of an Abundant New Year to come your way.

Next year I will be getting ready for something we can all get behind as concerned investors.

See ya'll next year.

DG


This is completely anecdotal but I have noticed an increase in credit card applications in the mail over the past several week; its gone from none to 2 or three per day. I think the American consumer is in better shape than most people think. The past two years the consumer has been paying down debt at record pace.

JohnGalt
12-31-2010, 12:14 PM
Copper, Corn, Silver, etc -- none of these commodities are letting off the accelerator today...

MetalsKing
12-31-2010, 12:20 PM
exited ZSL trade, small loss of 13 ticks.

MK

stag15
12-31-2010, 12:26 PM
exited ZSL trade, small loss of 13 ticks.

MK

I know this was a short trade, but just curious why you are consistantly against silver? Silver climbed from 21 to 28 and you continuously called tops. Silver is now approaching $31 and it appears that what everyone has been talking about (major shorts, shortages, consumption) may be true.

JohnGalt
12-31-2010, 12:31 PM
Corn & beans just exploded higher

MetalsKing
12-31-2010, 12:36 PM
I know this was a short trade, but just curious why you are consistantly against silver? Silver climbed from 21 to 28 and you continuously called tops. Silver is now approaching $31 and it appears that what everyone has been talking about (major shorts, shortages, consumption) may be true.

because my work says a top is possible, I follow my work, I use tight stops, I made 40% this year, it works but like anything not all the time. This is the only attempt at a silver short I have tried.

MK

stag15
12-31-2010, 12:45 PM
because my work says a top is possible, I follow my work, I use tight stops, I made 40% this year, it works but like anything not all the time. This is the only attempt at a silver short I have tried.

MK

I understand you are up for the year...It just seems you have a bias against silver, especially on this large run. I am just wondering why? It is nothing against you.

Wilhelm
12-31-2010, 12:50 PM
I think one has to be crazy to try and call tops in what has been the #1 perfomer in 2010 (silver) in the #1 secular bull market in our lifetimes (commodities)....but, Best of Luck!

I just made a very significant investment in silver bars, tripling my original 2006 position. Will look to exit 2012-2017

Wilhelm
12-31-2010, 12:52 PM
Here's to a properous 2011 for everybody!

MetalsKing
12-31-2010, 01:17 PM
I understand you are up for the year...It just seems you have a bias against silver, especially on this large run. I am just wondering why? It is nothing against you.

this looks like a blow off to me and I have reasons to look for a top, what the heck else can I say? I may be wrong so I'll just avoid it and look at what I consider much more low risk areas to invest

MK

Numisgold
12-31-2010, 01:22 PM
I like QuadG's explaination of gold and silver possibly putting in a running correction since the October peaks. If this is a major 3 then the "pullbacks" might be nothing more than sideways or bracketed upward moves. The small percentage that gold, silver, and GDX are above their 200 dma's suggests a ways to go to get to the final peaks in this run. Gold typically gets to 25-30% above its 200 dma. The best it did over the last few months was 17% on 2 attempts. It pulled back to 9-10% twice. The last one within the past 5 days. Silver maybe more overbought than gold but it should follow gold until gold is done.

Numisgold

JohnGalt
12-31-2010, 01:29 PM
this looks like a blow off to me and I have reasons to look for a top, what the heck else can I say? I may be wrong so I'll just avoid it and look at what I consider much more low risk areas to invest

MK

Agree - gold/silver stocks have had a great run & nothing goes straight up forever. A correction would be healthy & seems likely at these levels (not adding to positions at these levels but not selling either). I'm in for the long run, not a short term trader, and will continue to buy the corrections.

Goldmember
12-31-2010, 01:49 PM
this looks like a blow off to me and I have reasons to look for a top, what the heck else can I say? I may be wrong so I'll just avoid it and look at what I consider much more low risk areas to invest

MK

The USD looks to me like it's headed to 78 and likely toward 76. Do you see the same? And if so why would the USD and the precious drop together?

Happy New Year, and thanks for your valuable input.

MetalsKing
12-31-2010, 01:51 PM
The USD looks to me like it's headed to 78 and likely toward 76. Do you see the same? And if so why would the USD and the precious drop together?

Happy New Year, and thanks for your valuable input.

I have no good clue on where the dollar is going

MK

tcg1022
12-31-2010, 02:13 PM
Agree - gold/silver stocks have had a great run & nothing goes straight up forever. A correction would be healthy & seems likely at these levels (not adding to positions at these levels but not selling either). I'm in for the long run, not a short term trader, and will continue to buy the corrections.


Same here holding all PM positions such as miners and metal ETFs for the long term bull run. Seems to me that silver and gold just finished consolidating from its previous highs in Nov and Dec and is ready to take another step up the ladder. Time will tell that is the only certainty. Good Luck Everyone and happy new year!

petruchio2100
12-31-2010, 02:14 PM
am looking through Bud Conrad's _Profiting From The World's Economic Crisis_ (published by Wiley). it is already dated but has some fresh, simple and clear macro-economic explanations and charts that helped me understand how various macro-economic factors interact to create contemporary situations. Bud is a goldbug, agrees with our basic theses, and explains them simply and clearly up to a point: he does very good research and charts it illuminatingly; his core discipline is electronic engineering (seeing connections: "consequences of consequences," as he says). (in the book he not only calls QE2 but the amount, within 11%; some simple logic about surplus Treasuries enabled that.) i haven't found updates yet (the book ends with predictions for... 2010... ) however.

platinum is indeed moving up steadily. re: grains i just hold some RJA for now as DBA/DAG (am off of GRU at least until feb.) needs lots of monitoring, although it's highly profitable.

i want to just hold my 2013 goldstock LEAPS through the winter, hate to sell a perfectly sound position (as it is i could go on vacation for 3-6 months and not look at my holdings). ?

HNY! to all.

Roonbox
12-31-2010, 02:28 PM
this looks like a blow off to me and I have reasons to look for a top, what the heck else can I say? I may be wrong so I'll just avoid it and look at what I consider much more low risk areas to invest

MK


do you still have that short position MK?? Im expecting the first 3 months of 2011 to be bad for PMs..

JohnGalt
12-31-2010, 02:47 PM
Happy New Year Everyone - thanks for all the great insight

Frank
12-31-2010, 03:02 PM
this looks like a blow off to me and I have reasons to look for a top, what the heck else can I say? I may be wrong so I'll just avoid it and look at what I consider much more low risk areas to invest

MK

JUst my opinion I think Silver can go 32 easily then maybe 38.

MetalsKing
12-31-2010, 03:11 PM
do you still have that short position MK?? Im expecting the first 3 months of 2011 to be bad for PMs..

No, I posted earlier today I exited ZSL for a 13 tick loss.

MK

texarcana
12-31-2010, 03:56 PM
Thank you for all the help, to all who contribute to our community!!!!!
Happy New Year and a safe holiday, everyone!!!!

MetalsKing
12-31-2010, 04:12 PM
Happy New Year everyone! here's to an excellent 2011!

MK

Pmi2005
12-31-2010, 05:09 PM
Happy new year to all of you from a lurker...

Just bought into Olympus pacific oym, looks nice for an uptick.

Good luck!

gazelle
12-31-2010, 07:00 PM
this looks like a blow off to me and I have reasons to look for a top, what the heck else can I say? I may be wrong so I'll just avoid it and look at what I consider much more low risk areas to invest MK

Looks to me like we have 1 or 2 more days for this current upswing in the PMs. March silver hit a new high today, but Feb gold fell a bit short. The crowd returning on Monday should bring the necessary volume, then we can expect a couple of weeks of pullback before the next move.

petruchio2100
12-31-2010, 07:32 PM
seeing as i'm short 20+ year Treasuries (and a few points underwater: hasty purchase!), two questions please for whomever has an insight: can/will the Fed buy all the Treasuries it wants and keep rates where they are; and less theoretically, what kind of interest rates on the ten- and thirty- year bonds will the Fed regard as tolerable for early 2011?

i hate fighting the Fed and want out of this excellent trade!

i imagine a 4.75% yield on the thirty-year wouldn't make them nervous and that they will allow an advance to there (enabling me to get out with a small profit). but i wouldn't put it past the bernank to buy everything in sight (yup fear).

Cyclist said bonds and silver will be the game-makers of 2011, so i'm silly to worry, it's just that the Fed frustrates me no end, i hate trading against them. thanks.

DayStar
12-31-2010, 10:51 PM
Happy New Year everyone! here's to an excellent 2011!

MK

Happy New Year to you too, MK!

DayStar

zoezoe
01-01-2011, 09:47 PM
As of Monday for those that follow cycles and time it will be 666 trading days since the S&P low of 666.With Tues having an eclipse and a lunar eclipse that just pasted Dec 20.Eight of the greatest market crashes in history fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse.With January 19th being the first full moon of the new year an the 13th being the first day within this period.

Next large tide January, 2011 :All ports] [North Sea] [English Channel east] [English Channel west] [West Brittany] [South Brittany] [Atlantic]

Thursday, January 20, 2011 - coefficient 97
Friday, January 21, 2011 - coefficient 101 / 103
Saturday, January 22, 2011 - coefficient 105 / 105
Sunday, January 23, 2011 - coefficient 103 / 100
Monday, January 24, 2011 - coefficient 96

DayStar
01-02-2011, 07:39 AM
As of Monday for those that follow cycles and time it will be 666 trading days since the S&P low of 666. There will be a solar eclipse on Tues 4 Jan, and there was a lunar eclipse that just past on Dec 20. Eight of the greatest market crashes in history fell within a time period of six days before (e.g. 13th Jan) to three days after (e.g. 22nd Jan) a full moon (e.g. 19th Jan) that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse (e.g. 4th Jan). With January 19th being the first full moon of the new year and the 13th (six days before the 19th) being the first day within this period.

Next large tide January, 2011 :All ports] [North Sea] [English Channel east] [English Channel west] [West Brittany] [South Brittany] [Atlantic]

Thursday, January 20, 2011 - coefficient 97
Friday, January 21, 2011 - coefficient 101 / 103
Saturday, January 22, 2011 - coefficient 105 / 105
Sunday, January 23, 2011 - coefficient 103 / 100
Monday, January 24, 2011 - coefficient 96

Zoezoe I edited your post to make it clearer to me. It seems that the time from the 13th of Jan - 22nd of Jan is a time where the market would be more at risk to crash based on astrophysical forces. Can you explain the significance of the tides in your table above? What do they have to do, if anything, with a market crash? You have a noticed a solar eclipse on the 4th of Jan, but you also notice a lunar eclipse on the 20th of December. Your calculation is based on a solar eclipse. Why did you mention a lunar eclipse? Should the lunar eclipse fit into your equation? Also, your equation means there are two time periods when a market crash is at risk. There will be two full moons within six weeks of a solar eclipse, since the solar eclipse is always a new moon, and a full moon follows two weeks later, and then a second full moon follows 29 days later. Two full moons always follow the new moon of an eclipse within six weeks. The next risk period would be 11th Feb - 20th of Feb unless a lunar eclipse has to fall in there some where.

Thanks,

DayStar

zoezoe
01-02-2011, 11:09 AM
Daystar, you are correct my mistake the time line(13-22) still is correct but it should read lunar eclipse on Dec 20 instead of solar...... within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a lunar eclipse.When the moon is full or new, the gravitational pull of the moon and sun are combined. Thought I would throw in a cross reference of tidal charts to show the gravitational strength and effect within that time line.The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.Found that the coefficient in this tidal chart supported this hypotheses.All eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be less than one chance in 127,000. (referance "The Unified Cycle Theory")I will also be watching January 3-4 with respect to synchronized time and the solar ecplise...Is the power of POMO greater that these effects with 30-40 billion going into the Treasury Operating Schedule until Jan 11, who knows but I wouldn't be singing "Blue Skies"going into 2011.

petruchio2100
01-02-2011, 12:28 PM
surely the interesting article on the future of natural gas (mostly from the N. American perspectives) in the Jan/Feb issue of Foreign Affairs is a must read for you NG aficianados!?

Roonbox
01-03-2011, 04:20 AM
surely the interesting article on the future of natural gas (mostly from the N. American perspectives) in the Jan/Feb issue of Foreign Affairs is a must read for you NG aficianados!?

check out this NG related article
http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article1854785.html

MetalsKing
01-03-2011, 09:36 AM
back is ZSL at 9.75, stop at 9.61. DYODD as I take another try at picking a silver top, this will be my last one.

MK

Coolbreeze
01-03-2011, 10:19 AM
back is ZSL at 9.75, stop at 9.61. DYODD as I take another try at picking a silver top, this will be my last one.

MK

Mk what do you make of todays NG action? Big spike up on UNG

MetalsKing
01-03-2011, 10:24 AM
NG looks good, gold stocks may be leading the way lower as HUI is now down 2 points, we will see

MK

patterns
01-03-2011, 10:54 AM
LNG on full breakout up 15%

udhay28
01-03-2011, 12:36 PM
MK, crude looks weak today? right place to short crude below USD 92 ?

Thanks

beginner10
01-03-2011, 01:13 PM
I have invested in gold options expiring March 19th at 150. Any thoughts on whether gold will reach $1,500 by then, or should I take my losses now and sell and reinvest later into another gold option for a later date?

Thank you.

slim1
01-03-2011, 01:30 PM
I have invested in gold options expiring March 19th at 150. Any thoughts on whether gold will reach $1,500 by then, or should I take my losses now and sell and reinvest later into another gold option for a later date?

Thank you.

The options game is rigged against you. Unless you are doing it for a living, you are going to lose in the long run. Options are a zero sum game, either they get your money, or you get theirs. That is different than the stock market where everyone can win when stocks go up.

When I was first getting started in gold I lost lots of money in options, even though I was right on the trend, the timing is so critical that I still got killed. Then when thing are going your way, they change the margin requiremnts and shake all of the small investors out. You have better odds at a casino in Vegas.

Take your options money and buy stock in a good gold/silver mining company. Gold stocks have built in leverage to the POG and they never expire. You will win in the long run.

MetalsKing
01-03-2011, 03:30 PM
back is ZSL at 9.75, stop at 9.61. DYODD as I take another try at picking a silver top, this will be my last one.

MK

I liked the late weakness in gold and silver, tomorrow could be interesting

MK

petruchio2100
01-03-2011, 08:15 PM
I have invested in gold options expiring March 19th at 150. Any thoughts on whether gold will reach $1,500 by then, or should I take my losses now and sell and reinvest later into another gold option for a later date?

Thank you. yes don't be messing around like this. if you want to make such plays get five years experience first unless you have money to just throw away (even then, there are some excellent charities instead). (you haven't given enough info to suggest how to handle this trade now. ideally one doesn't hold an option of x months duration for over x/2 months except in special circumstances.... generally a real option play means you have reason for a belief that a certain instrument will appreciate a certain amount in a certain timeframe: obviously no beginner is ever in that epistemic situation: few traders ever are, they aren't that good. those who sometimes are, have an integral view of the economy, an attunement to a certain market area, and have recognized a certain pattern in real time, etc. when you find yourself there, then you can make a play of the kind, but it could still cost you. read soros and lefevre, maybe, to see what i'm trying to get at [this bad keyboard makes it hard.] BTW gold is incrreasingly strong going from august to january, weaker from january.) good luck.

eqrgargbargb
01-04-2011, 04:41 AM
Daystar, you are correct my mistake the time line(13-22) still is correct but it should read lunar eclipse on Dec 20 instead of solar...... within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a lunar eclipse.When the moon is full or new, the gravitational pull of the moon and sun are combined. Thought I would throw in a cross reference of tidal charts to show the gravitational strength and effect within that time line.The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.Found that the coefficient in this tidal chart supported this hypotheses.All eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be less than one chance in 127,000. (referance "The Unified Cycle Theory")I will also be watching January 3-4 with respect to synchronized time and the solar ecplise...Is the power of POMO greater that these effects with 30-40 billion going into the Treasury Operating Schedule until Jan 11, who knows but I wouldn't be singing "Blue Skies"going into 2011.

I think that you are talking about the puetz window but this is not one, for this to be a 'Puetz window', then the January 19, 2011 full moon would have to be a lunar eclipse which it isn't. the first puetz window is june 1 and the second is nov 25 this year.

Moonstruck
01-04-2011, 07:30 AM
The Lunar cycle is interesting. But it is of limited use, to trade these markets with.

I tend to give more consideration to the Sun Spot cycle. It is a longer and more powerfull effect. That I take into account for my Macro worldview. People like to talk up the damage an EMP attack would do. But it is the sun you should be paying attention to.

The hole in the Ozone layer, over the south pole. Has been a growing problem for years. It makes life harder, in the Land Down Under. :(

gold_rules
01-04-2011, 08:50 AM
and i would start adding around here or 80s, for a target of 1500

MetalsKing
01-04-2011, 08:54 AM
I liked the late weakness in gold and silver, tomorrow could be interesting

MK

and interesting it is and I really like this fine morning's decline, will lower stop on ZSL, the leveraged silver short.

MK

tcg1022
01-04-2011, 09:02 AM
and interesting it is and I really like this fine morning's decline, will lower stop on ZSL, the leveraged silver short.

MK


Nice trade I would keep it tight:cool:

MetalsKing
01-04-2011, 09:07 AM
Nice trade I would keep it tight:cool:

Oh I will, been around the block more than a few times.

MK

JohnGalt
01-04-2011, 09:20 AM
Copper coming off of its highs this morning below $4.45

JohnGalt
01-04-2011, 09:36 AM
Mosaic, MOS is the first of the fertilizer companies to report, after the close today, expect it to be a good number & positive outlook.

JohnGalt
01-04-2011, 10:03 AM
November Factory Orders +0.7% vs -0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -0.7% from -0.9%

denaliguide
01-04-2011, 10:09 AM
better to qwkly and efficiently track & mimic market trends than "TAKE a POSiTION" in WHAT YOU BELIEVE [ what you WANT to come true - the wish being father to the thought ! ].

Too much to go wrong in options, and the instruments and the way they trade are too unforgiving of any errors, pro or newbie, to be a good vehicle, 99% of the time.

DG


I have invested in gold options expiring March 19th at 150. Any thoughts on whether gold will reach $1,500 by then, or should I take my losses now and sell and reinvest later into another gold option for a later date?

Thank you.

JohnGalt
01-04-2011, 11:47 AM
Bloomberg: Lumber Futures Rise to Highest Price Since May 2006 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-04/lumber-futures-rise-to-highest-price-since-may-2006-in-chicago.html

MetalsKing
01-04-2011, 12:53 PM
I will exit half my ZSL bearish silver position if March silver hits 27.90 and let the other half ride. Now up 11% on ZSL in a couple days. Stop lowered to profitable.

MK

BellRockMiner
01-04-2011, 01:36 PM
I will exit half my ZSL bearish silver position if March silver hits 27.90 and let the other half ride. Now up 11% on ZSL in a couple days. Stop lowered to profitable.

MK

Well done, MK! I too hedged with hzd for this one. Also took advantage of NG situation to exit long held position for small gain and some junior Au. Collecting dry powder...some good buys in Ag may be developing. I am wondering if you are considering selling physical, MK?

JohnGalt
01-04-2011, 02:21 PM
Late burst of buying in corn, beans to lift prices off lows; corn dn 12, beans dn 8, wheat down 11-16

petruchio2100
01-04-2011, 03:18 PM
better to qwkly and efficiently track & mimic market trends than "TAKE a POSiTION" in WHAT YOU BELIEVE [ what you WANT to come true - the wish being father to the thought ! ].

DG

that's a new one (it's better to be a day-trader than to call fundamental market developments). the choice depends on an individual's knowledge-base, personality, and skill set, even on one's personal habits; it's not even remotely a case of one size fits all.
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[3:54pm EST:] GDX found strong support at the lower bollinger band today, gold and goldstocks are merely trading sideways. there's no need to panic out if you can stand normal fluctuations (although i kinda wish i too had the sophistication to put on a platinum-gold spread, not there yet). this is a good little reminder why we should be in physical though! this day will almost surely happen for real and true and x100/1000 in the not-so-distant future. (BTW am finally impressed MK now i'll pay proper attention. :-) )

JohnGalt
01-04-2011, 04:17 PM
Mosaic prelim $1.01 vs $0.91 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $2.68 bln vs $2.44 bln Thomson Reuters consensus Stock +1.00 AH