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View Full Version : $19.50. What could happen?


Killver
09-01-2010, 05:31 AM
Here's some historic (official Kitco data) silver prices so you will realize that just because we see "high prices" right now that We'll "never see $17 again" (as a current post says) is not necessarily true. Hey, I want silver up there. But just look at the data from '08- very recent history.

Has Wall Street greed and power been vanquished? NOT A CHANCE. Their lobbyists are still working overtime. With Wall Street, you don't even know when you are gambling: a few years ago, your 401k could have invested in the toxic packaged subprime mortgage securities being sold in larger and larger amounts, and you wouldn't have known what it meant then. It only took WS a short time after the first subprime mortgages were approved as a pilot program in 1999 before the risk was enormous and spread out everywhere.

Silver has been exactly where it is today (or higher) before. We still have a way to go before reaching the previous record.

Given silver's history, does anyone really think that it will just glide effortlessly over $22 without any problems? Then stay there? I hope it does, but wouldn't bet too much on it.

Here's Santayana's notorious quote: "Those who don't remember the past are condemned to repeat it"

Silver '08 prices:
Feb 22 '$19.50: Just as now
Mar 17 $21.00: Record!
Mar 19 $17.50: Note change TWO DAYS after record above
Apr 17 $18.50: Fights back upward...
Apr 30 $16.50: But didn't hold
Jul 15 $19.40: Same as today
Jul 30 $17.40: But it didn't hold either
Oct 24: $8.90: The impossible happens. Too much gold dumping?

Can this repeat? I'd say anything this extreme would be harder for 'them' to get away with and it's a different administration. But it just shows that PM price peaks are not cast in stone. 'They' had carte blanche less than 2 years ago...

ifionlyhadsomegold
09-01-2010, 05:39 AM
we are not looking @ history, we are making it.


i do however understand your concern.

;)

scallywag
09-01-2010, 05:39 AM
Interesting but this is not 2008 the world has changed considerably, money fleeing stocks is now hitting bonds and PMs whereas in 2008 PMs sold off at the crash, this time in 2010 PMs will rise when stocks fall hard. Me thinks some more research is required on your part as to the changes that have occured in investor sentiment capital flows etc simply plucking numbers from a previous timeframe does not help current analysis if you don't factor in those important changes.

Freedom
09-01-2010, 05:40 AM
silver hits $20, i'm selling it all again....will come close to doubling my stack after they dump us back to $10 again.

Who's ready to buy some silver shot?

FriedNietz
09-01-2010, 05:47 AM
All that is true but as I recall it was pretty hard to get silver for anywhere near the spot price in Oct. of 08. I think the best price I got was a little earlier at $14 something. Then shortly after that the availability just dried up.

SilverBug
09-01-2010, 08:35 AM
Yes history repeats itself. The history that is repeating itself today is the unprecedented run up of the late 80's. IMO $25-30 before the end of the year.

wrdavisjr56
09-01-2010, 08:50 AM
There will be a pull back after some highs. But they won't last long. Now 13+ Trillion in debt and growing fast is a long way from 2008.

07Silverado
09-01-2010, 08:55 AM
silver hits $20, i'm selling it all again....will come close to doubling my stack after they dump us back to $10 again.

Who's ready to buy some silver shot?

Say goodbye to silver. You won't find it at $10, even if the spot price goes there. I'll venture to say you won't find it at $15, except at a big premium.

SecretArgentMan
09-01-2010, 09:34 AM
If you look at the ten year chart for the POS, you'll see the general line approximates an exponential function. Each time the POS gets above the curve, it crashes back down. 2004, 2006, 2008. This time, however, we're not above the curve.

Combine that analysis with the economic realities of the day, and I'm confident we're not looking back.

Can't wait 'til my bonus shows up... I'll be heading in to the local silver shop!

SilverFinger
09-01-2010, 09:46 AM
I must be watching silver too closely Killver...I remember all those times in '08 you speak of. I was a fun ride back then. I'd like to say we won't ever see that volatility anymore...but we do need volatitlity to get to $23./$25. then it can back off to $21.

freetx
09-01-2010, 09:50 AM
Combine that analysis with the economic realities of the day, and I'm confident we're not looking back.

Can't wait 'til my bonus shows up... I'll be heading in to the local silver shop!

I would add that the 2008 issue also accompanied the largest sell off since practically the great depression. EVERYTHING went down in value as everyone was scrambling to unwind themselves from the derivative nightmares...

The SP500 dropped >30% in less then a month.....could it all happen again, sure....but what could one do to protect against that?

Ag gnostic
09-01-2010, 09:50 AM
If you look at the ten year chart for the POS, you'll see the general line approximates an exponential function. Each time the POS gets above the curve, it crashes back down. 2004, 2006, 2008. This time, however, we're not above the curve.

Combine that analysis with the economic realities of the day, and I'm confident we're not looking back.

Can't wait 'til my bonus shows up... I'll be heading in to the local silver shop!

The exponential function seems to be present in things other than silver as well.
Using this estimation method, do you get Ag at about $21.50 on function graph right now?

SilverFinger
09-01-2010, 09:51 AM
silver hits $20, i'm selling it all again....will come close to doubling my stack after they dump us back to $10 again.

Who's ready to buy some silver shot?

You might be right with shot and maybe 1000. ozer blocks...eveything else will have a 5 to 6 dollar/oz premium on it. I won't sell any of mine...but I'm game for picking up some ..even under $15 would be ideal.

Ag gnostic
09-01-2010, 10:01 AM
Has anyone checked on how easy it is to sell shot (in sealed bags)?

I remember a thread on it where someone suggested asking a jeweler, but I haven't gotten around to doing that & don't remember seeing if anyone else asked.

SecretArgentMan
09-01-2010, 10:04 AM
The exponential function seems to be present in things other than silver as well.
Using this estimation method, do you get Ag at about $21.50 on function graph right now?

I'm not using any calculations, just eyeballing it. Looks to be around $20 or so.

johndaniels
09-01-2010, 10:27 AM
Here's some historic (official Kitco data) silver prices so you will realize that just because we see "high prices" right now that We'll "never see $17 again" (as a current post says) is not necessarily true. Hey, I want silver up there. But just look at the data from '08- very recent history.

Has Wall Street greed and power been vanquished? NOT A CHANCE. Their lobbyists are still working overtime. With Wall Street, you don't even know when you are gambling: a few years ago, your 401k could have invested in the toxic packaged subprime mortgage securities being sold in larger and larger amounts, and you wouldn't have known what it meant then. It only took WS a short time after the first subprime mortgages were approved as a pilot program in 1999 before the risk was enormous and spread out everywhere.

Silver has been exactly where it is today (or higher) before. We still have a way to go before reaching the previous record.

Given silver's history, does anyone really think that it will just glide effortlessly over $22 without any problems? Then stay there? I hope it does, but wouldn't bet too much on it.

Here's Santayana's notorious quote: "Those who don't remember the past are condemned to repeat it"

Silver '08 prices:
Feb 22 '$19.50: Just as now
Mar 17 $21.00: Record!
Mar 19 $17.50: Note change TWO DAYS after record above
Apr 17 $18.50: Fights back upward...
Apr 30 $16.50: But didn't hold
Jul 15 $19.40: Same as today
Jul 30 $17.40: But it didn't hold either
Oct 24: $8.90: The impossible happens. Too much gold dumping?

Can this repeat? I'd say anything this extreme would be harder for 'them' to get away with and it's a different administration. But it just shows that PM price peaks are not cast in stone. 'They' had carte blanche less than 2 years ago...

would be sweet alot of folks would make out like bandits.

thats why it wont happen.

houseofthemoon
09-01-2010, 11:34 AM
One difference this time is that gold is much higher than in 08 and silver is tracking somewhat similar to gold. Seems bullish.

James007
09-01-2010, 12:53 PM
Ok from what I am seeing over and over again is this. People are cashing in already and stores are full of silver. Sound right? Because I am hearing the same in my area. So if stores are full and people have been selling in Aug.; why has the price been going up? We are not the ones buying it's government and institutional buying. So whatcha say?

HighInBC
09-01-2010, 01:22 PM
All that is true but as I recall it was pretty hard to get silver for anywhere near the spot price in Oct. of 08. I think the best price I got was a little earlier at $14 something. Then shortly after that the availability just dried up.

Kitco's silver pool was available. One could have bought into the pool then converted to physical once the premiums went back down.

silverone
09-01-2010, 01:32 PM
i'm NOT SELLING MINE!:D ;)

Jamesbong
09-01-2010, 02:08 PM
Say goodbye to silver. You won't find it at $10, even if the spot price goes there. I'll venture to say you won't find it at $15, except at a big premium.

You could still buy a 1,000 ounce bar for .79 over spot when silver was $10 in 08. There is no silver shortages, just people who don't wanna take a loss.

AR15AU
09-01-2010, 02:13 PM
Silver used to be $1... anything is possible...

But realistically as long as we are an entitlement nation, the central banks will be satisfying budget deficits for decades to come. There may be price fluctuations, but the long term trend is obvious.

07Silverado
09-01-2010, 02:15 PM
You could still buy a 1,000 ounce bar for .79 over spot when silver was $10 in 08.

This isn't 08.

There is no silver shortages, just people who don't wanna take a loss.

Shortage means lack availability. If people don't want to take a loss then their silver isn't available. 6 in one basket...

Killver
09-02-2010, 07:43 AM
I must be watching silver too closely Killver...I remember all those times in '08 you speak of. I was a fun ride back then. I'd like to say we won't ever see that volatility anymore...but we do need volatitlity to get to $23./$25. then it can back off to $21.

I wasn't too happy in '08 because we had all this "bullish silver" hype and I had bought enough that I could lose substantially if it dropped. I expected it to really soar since it had hit $21+... but then suddenly it was $9 and the dealers were out and huge premiums appeared. Those were very depressing days until Ag returned to $19, which took a couple of years.

Silver's volatility isn't gone, but it may be for shorter periods. After all, the gold dumping is not working any more. Most of silver's more extreme recent behavior seemed to amplify gold's downward moves, where the upward progress was slower. Even today Ag hesitates at $19.50 and gold seems stalled too: this is attempts to keep the dollar's value steady but that eventually will fail, which is why I got Ag to begin with. It's very sad to see the end of the USA as dominant country, simply because it was consciously thrown away. A military as costly as the entire rest of the world?? Just what we need! To 'defend', of course! If China had such a military, attacking countries across the globe for no apparent reason, I wonder what the NY Times would say? Anyway, this is what we got instead of infrastructure, instead of education, instead of health etc. Bad trade.

Spend those dollars because next year they will be 10% (20%?) less in some terms: food, imports, but not housing which is still deflating. PMs SHOULD go up but it's been decades of manipulation, and 'they' won't give up.

SecretArgentMan
09-02-2010, 09:17 AM
It's very sad to see the end of the USA as dominant country, simply because it was consciously thrown away. A military as costly as the entire rest of the world?? Just what we need! To 'defend', of course! If China had such a military, attacking countries across the globe for no apparent reason, I wonder what the NY Times would say? Anyway, this is what we got instead of infrastructure, instead of education, instead of health etc. Bad trade.

I agree with your general premise, that we've consciously thrown away a huge international advantage. Bretton Woods, while still a dirty scheme, was a HUGE gift to the US and we squandered it.

That being said, I would disagree with your apparent placement of all the blame on our out-sized military. Too much adventurism? Yes. Too much military? Yes. However, it is just one of a multitude of budget busting expenses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fy2010_spending_by_category.jpg

Not that Wikipedia is the font of all knowledge and wisdom, but I think this pie chart tells a fairly accurate story. We've had too much spending PERIOD. Social programs are WAY over half the budget.

revitup
09-02-2010, 01:15 PM
"PMs SHOULD go up but it's been decades of manipulation, and 'they' won't give up."

They may not have a choise. As more and more demand physical, the exchanges will go bust.

opiumbox2000
09-09-2010, 09:23 PM
good discussion

Got Goldies
09-09-2010, 09:28 PM
Sell $20, buy $17.50. Repeat until Dec?

I've only seen $20 three times in 30 years.