PDA

View Full Version : what would a comex default do to the POS?


97guns
10-09-2010, 10:24 AM
post your scenario

About AG
10-09-2010, 10:47 AM
post your scenario

Well, since the price of silver IS the COMEX price, the POS would really be meaningless.

Investors would need to come up with a new way of pricing silver (perhaps the London Fix would do the trick).

As for what people pay, it would of course go up. If there isn't enough metal available to meet the demands of the futures market, obvious it is in short supply, and demand would therefore go up.

Gold Bouillon
10-09-2010, 01:31 PM
From what I've read, people are expecting paper price to plummet and purchase price to rocket.

How silver stocks will react to this is anyone's guess.

ARCHANGEL
10-09-2010, 01:47 PM
You can start with 138 then 938,1738,2538,3338
It could virtually be wherever true supply and demand cross. The taking physical control of one`s physical silver was`nt a concern before. It icould now cause panic.:) ;)
e

100orbust
10-09-2010, 02:05 PM
post your scenario

1) COMEX Default generates a "short squeeze"
2) All contracts obligated for physical delivery will demand delivery (legal fight to ensue)
3) LME (London's Metal Exchange) may also topple
4) CFTC to step in and try to restore confidence
5) No more speculators allowed to purchase silver (or futures contracts)
6) Physical Silver (spot prices) jumps dramatically, pick any multiple
7) Online Retailers and Mom/Pop shops are sold out
8) Commercial's are given priority for any new supply into the market
9) ETF's may be frozen and any physical silver could be confiscated to fulfill higher priority needs
10) ETF's will come under scrutiny if Silver Holding's fail to materialize and the ETF's tank in parallel to the (paper) Price
11) Law Suits will ensue
12) ETF silver holders will (if they are not busted) look for physical only
13) CFTC to rewrite Exchane Controls pertaining to Silver
14) Gold Exchange could also lead to a "short squeeze"
15) Major banks, hedge funds, who had *Naked Short* Positions will be killed
16) Certain "Rogue" Traders will be routed out and charged
17) Losses will be in the 10's of billions if not more
18) A Foreign Exchange (which does not have the same risk exposure) will be selected (at least for the interim) to replace the COMEX
19) Mining Stocks, both junior and senior with proven reserves and capital will sky-rocket
20) All hedged positions will become unhedged
21) Gov't to provide tax incentives and capital to startup's
22) Mining Rights, Off-shore mines to become nationalized
23) Ability to purchase physical silver will be extremely difficult if not impossible
24) Demand - Supply balance will be overweighted on the demand side for a period of months if not years (*certain variables we do not have visibility to changes this equation)
25) Certain industries are threatening to shut-down due to lack of supply
26) Some countries may make it illegal to purchase phsyical silver (Europe, Britain), leading to black market in PM's
27) Silver purchased for Jewelry may be deemed illegal
28) Banks / Countries may be forced to start hoarding physical Silver (US Stockpile reserves at this time is negligible).
29) 401K holdings of physical silver may be confiscated (these are reported to the Gov't / IRS), consequently they have visibility to what amounts investors have. *Silver is both vital commodity to many sensitive industrial usages and also strategic deployments in the Military.
30) US and Candian Gov't Mints will halt temporarily if not permanently minting Silver Coins

ARCHANGEL
10-09-2010, 02:54 PM
100 or Bust

Just love it when your on a roll!!HA!! Maybe you forgot a few.
Just kidding. Great stuff:)

SilverFinger
10-09-2010, 06:26 PM
Yeah, I'm standing by 100orbust statement. He has it down pat. Kind of a flowcharted rhythm sequence, if , then, else.

Briarcutter
10-09-2010, 06:59 PM
1) COMEX Default generates a "short squeeze"
2) All contracts obligated for physical delivery will demand delivery (legal fight to ensue)
3) LME (London's Metal Exchange) may also topple
4) CFTC to step in and try to restore confidence
5) No more speculators allowed to purchase silver (or futures contracts)
6) Physical Silver (spot prices) jumps dramatically, pick any multiple
7) Online Retailers and Mom/Pop shops are sold out
8) Commercial's are given priority for any new supply into the market
9) ETF's may be frozen and any physical silver could be confiscated to fulfill higher priority needs
10) ETF's will come under scrutiny if Silver Holding's fail to materialize and the ETF's tank in parallel to the (paper) Price
11) Law Suits will ensue
12) ETF silver holders will (if they are not busted) look for physical only
13) CFTC to rewrite Exchane Controls pertaining to Silver
14) Gold Exchange could also lead to a "short squeeze"
15) Major banks, hedge funds, who had *Naked Short* Positions will be killed
16) Certain "Rogue" Traders will be routed out and charged
17) Losses will be in the 10's of billions if not more
18) A Foreign Exchange (which does not have the same risk exposure) will be selected (at least for the interim) to replace the COMEX
19) Mining Stocks, both junior and senior with proven reserves and capital will sky-rocket
20) All hedged positions will become unhedged
21) Gov't to provide tax incentives and capital to startup's
22) Mining Rights, Off-shore mines to become nationalized
23) Ability to purchase physical silver will be extremely difficult if not impossible
24) Demand - Supply balance will be overweighted on the demand side for a period of months if not years (*certain variables we do not have visibility to changes this equation)
25) Certain industries are threatening to shut-down due to lack of supply
26) Some countries may make it illegal to purchase phsyical silver (Europe, Britain), leading to black market in PM's
27) Silver purchased for Jewelry may be deemed illegal
28) Banks / Countries may be forced to start hoarding physical Silver (US Stockpile reserves at this time is negligible).
29) 401K holdings of physical silver may be confiscated (these are reported to the Gov't / IRS), consequently they have visibility to what amounts investors have. *Silver is both vital commodity to many sensitive industrial usages and also strategic deployments in the Military.
30) US and Candian Gov't Mints will halt temporarily if not permanently minting Silver Coins

Yeah, so what's the down side?? Just playing, thanks for your thoughts.

magrah
10-09-2010, 07:27 PM
Blimey ... I thought it was meant to be a good idea to get into silver!ha!

Gold Standard
10-09-2010, 07:36 PM
It might confuse price discovery a mite bit. :confused: