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View Full Version : anyone else betting RED after the FED?


johndaniels
11-03-2010, 09:39 AM
I am thinking of putting temp shorts in, i think the fed will disappoint.

im looking @ DZZ and ZSL for a fairly large drop. why?

think about it. if the fed were REALLY doing QE, they wouldn't announce a huge number; but would probably seek to leave the markets discouraged and in sell mode.

then, they can get better prices across the board when they go cherry pickin'.

thoughts?

thegoldview
11-03-2010, 09:50 AM
disclosure: I'm long gold short term so hoping fed will go higher then expectations

there's definitely a good argument that the fed will disappoint. The fed board is gridlocked some for and against. The fact the most people are saying it's 500 billion is already priced in the market.

I agree if the fed disappoints there will be a huge drop.

The for argument is that Goldman Sachs and BofA is predicting 2 trillion+
I was watching bloomberg live just before and they were saying word on the trading floor is 1.0-1.5 trillion

johndaniels
11-03-2010, 09:55 AM
The for argument is that Goldman Sachs and BofA is predicting 2 trillion+
I was watching bloomberg live just before and they were saying word on the trading floor is 1.0-1.5 trillion

the problem is, they can simply chalk up these predictions and blame the fed when it disappoints. they will benefit most from a sell off; they get the cheap credit and free money from the fed. do they want to buy at higher prices or lower?

its all bullish long term, no doubt. but a deep, short term correction seems likely, ushered in by these very same institutions.

i give us 50-50, either way.

i wouldnt bet the farm, but ill take the other side and shake your hand when its over, and in fact be very happy for you! its all about hedging for me anyway. if enough people think like i do an play heavier on the other side then price could in fact stablize and we'll just hold even; i can live with that too.

edit; honestly, it seems like a pump on this thing in the MSM. they keep calling it "big" and "huge" and expectations are really high now. ntm, i just dont trust the fed or anything they say...

thegoldview
11-03-2010, 10:01 AM
yeh true maybe they are chalking up expectations while they have billions ready in shorts

The reality is the majority of people are expecting the Fed to disappoint Trade Against The 90% That Lose Money 3rd Nov (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trade-against-90-lose-money-3rd-nov)

They very well may right and the majority may make a lot of money


Funny we are jumping between threads haha

BoxofGold
11-03-2010, 10:01 AM
i give us 50-50, either way.

I actually think it's 2/3. If they do the expected $500B it should be neutral. Less than $500B is bearish. So, IMO, we have 2 of 3 chances of not being bullish for PM's.

johndaniels
11-03-2010, 10:02 AM
yeh true maybe they are chalking up expectations while they have billions ready in shorts

The reality is the majority of people are expecting the Fed to disappoint Trade Against The 90% That Lose Money 3rd Nov (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trade-against-90-lose-money-3rd-nov)

They very well may right and the majority may make a lot of money


Funny we are jumping between threads haha

yes, actually your right about that. there is at least an awareness among traders.

thegoldview
11-03-2010, 10:04 AM
the market is having a pre-reaction of disappointment right now. Dollar is rallying hard, I might lose my position before the announcement :( lol

I wonder if the gov is supporting the dollar, I could certainly see why before the fed announcement.

Maybe it's just the traders.

Carpenter
11-03-2010, 10:06 AM
For all of Ben's jaw flappin about QE2, it's put up or shut up time.

I'm beginning to think Ben likes deflation more than he's letting on.

johndaniels
11-03-2010, 10:06 AM
the market is having a pre-reaction of disappointment right now. Dollar is rallying hard, I might lose my position before the announcement :( lol

I wonder if the gov is supporting the dollar, I could certainly see why before the fed announcement.

Maybe it's just the traders.

they just putting in hedges, probably. like a compulsive gambler adds more and more chips on the roulette table just before the ball lands; or the horse race gambler makes an 'intuition' bet in the final seconds before a race.

johndaniels
11-03-2010, 10:07 AM
For all of Ben's jaw flappin about QE2, it's put up or shut up time.

I'm beginning to think Ben likes deflation more than he's letting on.

i think thats exactly what we're gonna get. jaw flappin and blabber.

Carpenter
11-03-2010, 10:09 AM
the market is having a pre-reaction of disappointment right now. Dollar is rallying hard, I might lose my position before the announcement :( lol

I wonder if the gov is supporting the dollar, I could certainly see why before the fed announcement.

Maybe it's just the traders.

Ben's buddies received the announcement in time to position themselves ahead of the market.

Bill Gross is talking out one side of his mouth, and investing with the other.

thegoldview
11-03-2010, 10:09 AM
watch bloomberg tv at bloomberg.com it's pretty good for the latest on fed right now.

thegoldview
11-03-2010, 10:11 AM
finally some selling pressure on the dollar maybe this will keep me in the game until 2:15

SevenEyedJeff
11-03-2010, 11:10 AM
I actually think it's good that we are seeing red going into the Fed meeting. My guess is they are trying to knock it down so when QE is announced, gold will have to recover all that before ending in the green. The last thing they want is a +100 day for gold; I think they are trying to keep it down to +20 or 30.

I could be wrong of course, but that's my guess.

johndaniels
11-03-2010, 12:27 PM
I actually think it's good that we are seeing red going into the Fed meeting. My guess is they are trying to knock it down so when QE is announced, gold will have to recover all that before ending in the green. The last thing they want is a +100 day for gold; I think they are trying to keep it down to +20 or 30.

I could be wrong of course, but that's my guess.

possible. i think the set up was in after the run up; now its 'dump on the news'.

still bullish long term.

Murgen
11-03-2010, 12:54 PM
I think the Fed will print more than 500 billion. I base that prediction on the fact that the banks are in trouble again, and that Ben may be under the microscope again in 2011. So if the fed needs to print, they must be under pressure to do it now. The dip so far must be a shakeout. Anyway, that is my take on it.