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AgStacker
11-30-2010, 05:37 PM
Congratulations to all the strong hands who held their silver through the bumpy ride on the way here.

Silver is showing remarkable strength. The perfect storm has shaped and higher prices are forthcoming.

The easy days of just buy and hold are coming to an end. Fear of losing out on gains will motivate some to exit early and some will hold past the sell point because of greed.

Make plans now for how you will handle both and do what you can to use logic not emotion to get through what is coming. Use more than the POS to gauge the market, it will not always be an accurate picture of what is coming next.

Volatile times are coming.

TwoHorses
11-30-2010, 05:40 PM
of losing out on gains will motivate some to exit early and some will hold past the sell point because of greed.


I don't even see the sell point at this moment. Before I sell, I'll have to see more QE, Dollar issues, and then a workable solution. Can't even imagine when this will be. Any ideas?

rodzm
11-30-2010, 05:43 PM
Trade for the less volatile gold and if you want to do a small speculative play trade silver for platinum

Greed will take hold with these high prices. Have an exit strategy or hold the bag forever.

airbil
11-30-2010, 05:43 PM
... it's time to sell when (in my case) the USD stops losing value?
And, butofcourse, this will be sometime far, far away.
Stay tuned.

TwoHorses
11-30-2010, 05:47 PM
Have an exit strategy or hold the bag forever.

Since I don't have one, care to share yours?

Kookcollector
11-30-2010, 05:52 PM
Congratulations to all the strong hands who held their silver through the bumpy ride on the way here.

Silver is showing remarkable strength. The perfect storm has shaped and higher prices are forthcoming.

The easy days of just buy and hold are coming to an end. Fear of losing out on gains will motivate some to exit early and some will hold past the sell point because of greed.

Make plans now for how you will handle both and do what you can to use logic not emotion to get through what is coming. Use more than the POS to gauge the market, it will not always be an accurate picture of what is coming next.

Volatile times are coming.


So what is your exit strategy ?
You say that greed will cause some to hold past the sell point.
But how could that happen unless you can picture "some day" in the future whereas the dollar may stand better odds of maintaining it's value...than silver or gold

In so far as I'm concerned, that day will never occur.

rodzm
11-30-2010, 05:58 PM
Since I don't have one, care to share yours?

Trade for other hard assets or the less volatile gold. Nothing wrong with holding a silver bag forever but you wont get to enjoy them much if youre dead.

I already have a plan of where i will spend part of my stash. It will be three years from now on a beautiful island with my wife. A great 10 year anniversary courtesy of gold and silver

DenariiForMe
11-30-2010, 06:12 PM
I don't even see the sell point at this moment. Before I sell, I'll have to see more QE, Dollar issues, and then a workable solution. Can't even imagine when this will be. Any ideas?

Yea, that's the big one to watch for. There are only two 'solutions:' i.e. things that will allow monetization and inflation to end. Either drastic reform to end the welfare state and the empire, or an organized default of some kind with an international authority running the show as in Europe.

The first one is nigh to impossible, the second one isn't possible yet, as the IMF and other organs of the coming world-state aren't prepared for action yet.

Long story short, I won't be selling for some time.

gmacrae
11-30-2010, 06:26 PM
didnt it close in the 29's a week or two ago?

Still, you're dead right, volatility is the name of the game from here on in. I'm picking we'll start to see 5-10% daily price movements in the next few months. People better learn to leave their emotions at the door :D

AgStacker
11-30-2010, 06:33 PM
No, it was November 9th and the $29.34 was intra-day, it wasn't a close.

didnt it close in the 29's a week or two ago?

Still, you're dead right, volatility is the name of the game from here on in. I'm picking we'll start to see 5-10% daily price movements in the next few months. People better learn to leave their emotions at the door :D

HedgeHOG
11-30-2010, 06:34 PM
didnt it close in the 29's a week or two ago?

Still, you're dead right, volatility is the name of the game from here on in. I'm picking we'll start to see 5-10% daily price movements in the next few months. People better learn to leave their emotions at the door :D

Naw, high was around 27.65ish. Think it was $29.60 spike. Does not count. Unless your the lucky arse that was able to sell at that exact moment. This an important week. Bought 70 ounces yesterday evening at $27.40. Should have doubled down.

theplantguy
11-30-2010, 06:37 PM
Yea, that's the big one to watch for. There are only two 'solutions:' i.e. things that will allow monetization and inflation to end. Either drastic reform to end the welfare state and the empire, or an organized default of some kind with an international authority running the show as in Europe.

The first one is nigh to impossible, the second one isn't possible yet, as the IMF and other organs of the coming world-state aren't prepared for action yet.

Long story short, I won't be selling for some time.

I think you have it exactly right. My take on things is that the EUR must fail first. After all, that's why the EUR was created in the first place, it was destined to fail from the very start. The IMF/WorldBank/ et al will come to the rescue and institute a currency system for Europe. They will demand that all trade with Europe be done with the new currency. That currency will become the de facto reserve currency. That will spell the death of the dollar and economic chaos in the US will ensue . The only way out of that chaos will be to adopt the new currency.

HighInBC
11-30-2010, 06:38 PM
I am moving my holdings into the pool as fast as I can sell my physical. I want to be able to get out with a click of a button and get back in later with as much ease.

I will convert back to physical when I am more confident of long term steady growth.

ncsilverseeker
11-30-2010, 06:42 PM
Ok, what's up guys, the buy and hold physical guys are pumping get your exit plan ready? what happened to the i'll hold forever idea's, waiting for a moon shot now ready to dump? thought's idea's suggestions?

Radar
11-30-2010, 06:44 PM
I made $3500 today on my physical silver and gold stash and I never got out of bed. I see silver and gold going up more tomorrow. The Dollar is in the tank!!!!!!!!!!!!!!................

theplantguy
11-30-2010, 06:46 PM
Ok, what's up guys, the buy and hold physical guys are pumping get your exit plan ready? what happened to the i'll hold forever idea's, waiting for a moon shot now ready to dump? thought's idea's suggestions?

well......being old and senile.........I don't intend to sell.........in fact, I'm still buying with profits from paper trading. Although I will, in all probability, convert most of my silver into gold over time depending on the GSR.

TwoHorses
11-30-2010, 06:48 PM
Ok, what's up guys, the buy and hold physical guys are pumping get your exit plan ready? what happened to the i'll hold forever idea's, waiting for a moon shot now ready to dump? thought's idea's suggestions?

I think I am a buy and hold forever guy. Not sure how you could sell all this stuff even if the time was right.

leftylarue
11-30-2010, 06:53 PM
My growing stash will go to my children when I die, same for the missus. Can't imagine disposing, don't want to, don't need to. Gives me comfort. Integral part of diversification. I enjoy watching the ups and downs but they don't really affect me as long as the S doesn't HTF. Stayin' where it is. Don't have any PT or PD, need some.

ncsilverseeker
11-30-2010, 06:53 PM
so we are now looking at 30 as the new 50-100 that everyone was talking about, this is the moon shot? i kinda agree i like the idea of gold to silver, but but just a couple of days ago people were saying this is the first stage? buckle up etc etc, now we are planing a exit strategy. Being a newbie and too be honest i don't have enough of either one to really be worried about but thought's on the new silver would be appreciated.

theplantguy
11-30-2010, 06:53 PM
I made $3500 today on my physical silver and gold stash and I never got out of bed. I see silver and gold going up more tomorrow. The Dollar is in the tank!!!!!!!!!!!!!!................

It may be in the tank sometime in the future..................but not now

http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLightPlus/tmp/img_12911610457970.gif

Stormdancer
11-30-2010, 06:57 PM
Ok, what's up guys, the buy and hold physical guys are pumping get your exit plan ready? what happened to the i'll hold forever idea's, waiting for a moon shot now ready to dump? thought's idea's suggestions?

I think the point is that wisdom dictates that you formulate an exit plan before investing in anything. Fail to do that and you'll end up being part of the huge majority who will ride this silver bull right back down the other side until one day you wake up to the undeniable reality that the bull morphed into a bear that's eaten your lunch while you weren't looking.

If you think discussing exit strategies is a sign of imminent selling on my part...you ain't looking at the same DD I am. It's still a bull and likely will be for a very long time yet.

If you're panicked about wondering whether or not to sell right now, you NEED to start thinking about your exit strategy. Do you have one? If you don't, start by considering what made you buy in the first place. Have any of those factors changed? If not, what can you think of that would cause them to change? What sectors/data can you monitor to indicate that those original motivators are being modified or disappearing?

Just answering those questions to your own satisfaction will cause an "exit plan" to begin to form in your mind.

It's all called due diligence.

If you don't know why you bought silver to begin with you're toast already. Unless you "fix" that before going any further that is...

itmann
11-30-2010, 07:01 PM
My growing stash will go to my children when I die, same for the missus. Can't imagine disposing, don't want to, don't need to. Gives me comfort. Integral part of diversification. I enjoy watching the ups and downs but they don't really affect me as long as the S doesn't HTF. Stayin' where it is. Don't have any PT or PD, need some.

Maybe I'll be buying your stash, a little below spot, from your kids! :D

leftylarue
11-30-2010, 07:02 PM
Maybe I'll be buying your stash, a little below spot, from your kids! :D

Entirely possible . . . .

Instigator Al
11-30-2010, 07:04 PM
It may be in the tank sometime in the future..................but not now

http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLightPlus/tmp/img_12911610457970.gif

Hey buddy, have you ever looked at a long term chart of the dollar ? How about an intermediate chart of the dollar ?

YOU DO REALIZE THAT THE DOLLAR WAS OVER 120 ON THE INDEX IN THE LAST DECADE RIGHT ! ! ! ! !

the_sirius_one
11-30-2010, 07:07 PM
AgStacker

I nearly always enjoy your posts, but this one I felt compelled to comment.

Congratulations to all the strong hands who held their silver through the bumpy ride on the way here.

Silver is showing remarkable strength. The perfect storm has shaped and higher prices are forthcoming.

The easy days of just buy and hold are coming to an end.

Why? I have just bought and held for over 40 years, only selling twice; first to pay off college expenses(1972) and second to buy into my first house and pay of my car(1978). For me, its been very easy to hold.

Fear of losing out on gains will motivate some to exit early...

I agree. I predict from the tenor of most Kitco posts, that >90% in this forum will sell too early and miss out on this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Many will not be able to handle the volatility. Many will sell upon the whims of other Kitcoites suggesting "a top". Others will be satisfied with modest profit in FIAT terms. A portion will sell in attempt to preempt a "bubble popping" that never occurs. These and other reasons will cast most to the curb.

...and some will hold past the sell point because of greed.

Sell point? Sell for what? I do not see that the current-day humpty-dumpty FIAT schemes will ever be put back together enough to replace PMs. If you mean sell to maintain living standards, food, etc., then okay, sell as you must.

Make plans now for how you will handle both and do what you can to use logic not emotion to get through what is coming. Use more than the POS to gauge the market, it will not always be an accurate picture of what is coming next.

Logic nor emotion will get you through. IB, it will take more. It will take understanding and commitment now, not later.

Volatile times are coming.

On this, we can agree.

Happy Twenty-eight!!! and good fortune to you.

The red comments are the_sirius_ones.

theplantguy
11-30-2010, 07:11 PM
Hey buddy, have you ever looked at a long term chart of the dollar ? How about an intermediate chart of the dollar ?

YOU DO REALIZE THAT THE DOLLAR WAS OVER 120 ON THE INDEX IN THE LAST DECADE RIGHT ! ! ! ! !

I'm only pointing out what it is now.............and right now, contrary to what some believe, it's not in the tank. I certainly know what the long term and medium term charts looks like. And, as I have said many times, the dollar will, at some point, fail.

vvolf
11-30-2010, 07:18 PM
So what is your exit strategy ?
You say that greed will cause some to hold past the sell point.
But how could that happen unless you can picture "some day" in the future whereas the dollar may stand better odds of maintaining it's value...than silver or gold

In so far as I'm concerned, that day will never occur.

+1

Good advice for paper, getting ready for a sell point ....To think about taking profits in fiat from my physical just doesn't seem smrt from any angle I've looked at.

$5 roll of dimes is not quite a Starbucks trip
$5 roll of silver dimes takes the whole family out for a nice dinner and a movie, or a weeks worth of groceries.

ifionlyhadsomegold
11-30-2010, 07:25 PM
hee,hee.

i like cake!

AgStacker
11-30-2010, 07:26 PM
I think people have misinterpreted my comments or at least made some assumptions.

For instance I said the "sell point", that doesn't mean sell for dollars, at least not for more than a few days. I keep a close eye on the silver/ranch ratio for instance as a nice little hobby ranch will mean more to me than a few ammo cans full of silver.

This would be an excellent time for each of us to consider what store of value you would go into if you feel silver has peaked. For many it is gold, it might be for us as well but there are potential drawbacks to gold that I will have to assess at the time. For instance politics, it has been done once and could easily be done again, demonizing gold and gold holders, I don't want my wealth tied up in something that is a felony to own or sell.

From here on in the action can and likely will get fast and furious, once $35 or $40 is breached we could move up at a pace that will make time into a blur. The easy,lazy days where you just tried to save a dime or two on your monthly buy POS are likely done.

Retail supply of silver will not be a given, finding it at any price will be a trick as this unfolds.

I don't have a target price, I have a target circumstance. I monitor many factors that form the bones of the bull so to speak, at some point those bones will give way and the bull will collapse. I don't care what the number ends up being I just want as much of the whole ride as I can get.

The difference between hitting within 5% of the top which is a realistic goal and missing it by 10 or 15% can mean a huge amount of buying power for those with larger stacks.

I read your posts to sirius one, I find I often agree with you as well.

ifionlyhadsomegold
11-30-2010, 07:38 PM
The difference between hitting within 5% of the top which is a realistic goal and missing it by 10 or 15% can mean a huge amount of buying power for those with larger stacks.




good luck with that!

did you pick the bottom?

even so odds are against you finding a sell point within 5% of the top.

:(

AgStacker
11-30-2010, 07:41 PM
Yes I did buy at the bottom, many of them.

We will see how the top goes, I have a leg up on most, I do way more work on knowing what I know than most of the members I read posts from.

There is an adage that goes, the harder I work the luckier I get.

I will post what I do when I sell, I have to tell family first, my forum second and then I will post it at kitco.

good luck with that!

did you pick the bottom?

even so odds are against you finding a sell point within 5% of the top.

:(

the_sirius_one
11-30-2010, 07:55 PM
...I said the "sell point", that doesn't mean sell for dollars, at least not for more than a few days. I keep a close eye on the silver/ranch ratio for instance...

I'd also keep my eyes on the SRR, however, I've already bought mine free and clear. And I agree, It's a very nice lifestyle, indeed.

S

insidedealer
11-30-2010, 07:56 PM
I think the point is that wisdom dictates that you formulate an exit plan before investing in anything. Fail to do that and you'll end up being part of the huge majority who will ride this silver bull right back down the other side until one day you wake up to the undeniable reality that the bull morphed into a bear that's eaten your lunch while you weren't looking.

If you think discussing exit strategies is a sign of imminent selling on my part...you ain't looking at the same DD I am. It's still a bull and likely will be for a very long time yet.

If you're panicked about wondering whether or not to sell right now, you NEED to start thinking about your exit strategy. Do you have one? If you don't, start by considering what made you buy in the first place. Have any of those factors changed? If not, what can you think of that would cause them to change? What sectors/data can you monitor to indicate that those original motivators are being modified or disappearing?

Just answering those questions to your own satisfaction will cause an "exit plan" to begin to form in your mind.

It's all called due diligence.

If you don't know why you bought silver to begin with you're toast already. Unless you "fix" that before going any further that is...

That is wisdom.
I started buying years ago because I thought it was artificially underpriced, like the Europeans, particularly the French President, thought. Then over time things have gone from bad to worse as far as the US deficit is concerned. Then we add in a housing bubble debt crisis in recent years where the banks world-wide overextended themselves(and us, ultimately). That's why I've been in and stay in.
.
.
Seems to me like a time when the fiat revaluation that we're seeing already must continue and hopefully resolve itself quickly. But I'm not holding my breath. It looks like this will take years to resolve. The EURO has a fork stuck in it. It'll take awhile for the different country's to get their own sovereign currencies re-evaluated. The dollar and yuan could be relative safety for awhile, then they'd have to re-evaluate themselves if it hadn't happened already by market forces over the years. I've always loved the security of precious metal but I'd prefer to have a time when I and my children have a stable money to deal with. Preferably a dollar. It will happen, be it 1 year or 200 years. I've been waiting 35 years and I personally think it will take another 3-10 years. The time is upon us. I'm biased as my appointment at Riverside Gardens is closer than most, but an exit strategy is a must have for all who own physical metal. After that, if I have anything left after buying my private island:rolleyes: I'll see how my silver mining stocks are doing while I sip pina-coladas by the sea. But I'd still keep some gold and silver, just a little, just in case..........I can't help it.

aybesee123
11-30-2010, 08:17 PM
Trade for the less volatile gold and if you want to do a small speculative play trade silver for platinum

Greed will take hold with these high prices. Have an exit strategy or hold the bag forever.

You've been saying trade silver for gold for quite sometime. You have missed a lot of percentage gains this year if you did so and will continue to lose further going forward. Then again being in the 2nd place percentage gainer is better then last place! :p

Hi Ho Silver!!!!

DenariiForMe
11-30-2010, 08:26 PM
If we're talking about other investments, as opposed to necessities, I'd ideally like to acquire rental property, especially farmland. Short of that, I would probably buy gold. Or, if the world turns, U.S. treasuries. :D

(P.S. The world won't turn...:rolleyes: )

ZeroSum
11-30-2010, 09:47 PM
Silver is my exit strategy from the dollar.

The fundamentals of the global economic system are broken, and what we're watching are world leaders escalating their blatant efforts to perpetuate the charade just a little longer at any cost. The latest (scary) escalation is the suspension of democracy in Ireland ("it would be inappropriate to hold elections right now").

It will only get worse. Because the rule of law will not be applied to bankers or the corrupt politicians who collude with them.
Facts will be ignored. (Check)
Riots in the streets will be marginalized. (Check)
Elections will be suspended. (Check)
Price controls will be implemented.
Food and energy shortages will ensue.
Infrastructure will fail.
Government services will cease to function.
Social order will begin to break down.

We demonstrate time and again that we will take no meaningful steps to fix what's broken while we still have the means to. We've got a system that shields any one person from accountability so long as they don't change the status quo, so hard decisions will be avoided. And sadly, those most responsible will never be held accountable.

We've now entered the endgame. But you need to expand your time horizon to the scale of global events. Global dominoes don't fall overnight. We're watching a slow motion train wreck that's already been in progress for more than two years.

Bear Stearns. Lehman Brothers. AIG. TARP. Stimulus. QE. Greece. Flash Crash. Fraudclosure. QE2. Ireland.

and...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPfI9oxZuEo

...But for now, relax. There's nothing you can do to stop it, and you're already preparing. So enjoy christmas with your family. Spend time with your kids. Appreciate the little things while they last.

And buy a couple more silver coins at your local coin shop this week.

theplantguy
11-30-2010, 09:52 PM
Silver is my exit strategy from the dollar.

The fundamentals of the global economic system are broken, and what we're watching are world leaders escalating their blatant efforts to perpetuate the charade just a little longer at any cost. The latest (scary) escalation is the suspension of democracy in Ireland ("it would be inappropriate to hold elections right now").

It will only get worse. Because the rule of law will not be applied to bankers or the corrupt politicians who collude with them.
Facts will be ignored. (Check)
Riots in the streets will be marginalized. (Check)
Elections will be suspended. (Check)
Price controls will be implemented.
Food and energy shortages will ensue.
Infrastructure will fail.
Government services will cease to function.
Social order will begin to break down.

We demonstrate time and again that we will take no meaningful steps to fix what's broken while we still have the means to. We've got a system that shields any one person from accountability so long as they don't change the status quo, so hard decisions will be avoided. And sadly, those most responsible will never be held accountable.

We've now entered the endgame. But you need to expand your time horizon to the scale of global events. Global dominoes don't fall overnight. We're watching a slow motion train wreck that's already been in progress for more than two years.

Bear Stearns. Lehman Brothers. AIG. TARP. Stimulus. QE. Greece. Flash Crash. Fraudclosure. QE2. Ireland.

and...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPfI9oxZuEo

...But for now, relax. There's nothing you can do to stop it, and you're already preparing. So enjoy christmas with your family. Spend time with your kids. Appreciate the little things while they last.

And buy a couple more silver coins at your local coin shop this week.

That is the truth.........What more need be said

Jamesbong
12-01-2010, 02:23 AM
You've been saying trade silver for gold for quite sometime. You have missed a lot of percentage gains this year if you did so and will continue to lose further going forward. Then again being in the 2nd place percentage gainer is better then last place! :p

Hi Ho Silver!!!!

If you have a large stack I see trading silver for gold as a wise play. I would consider this even more if I was a bit older, because I would go for a safer play with less volatility. This market will correct eventually, and historically gold gets less of a haircut. I still like the upside potential of silver more, then again the market always throws me for a loop and often leaves me scrathing my head.

SilverBug
12-01-2010, 03:26 AM
I made $3500 today on my physical silver and gold stash and I never got out of bed. I see silver and gold going up more tomorrow. The Dollar is in the tank!!!!!!!!!!!!!!................
Dito
Let em eat cake.
Looking forward to the 16th when the fireworks begin.
CFTC to unveil position limit plan Dec 16 (http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.10/cftc.html)

Bullion_Bob
12-01-2010, 03:50 AM
I am moving my holdings into the pool as fast as I can sell my physical. I want to be able to get out with a click of a button and get back in later with as much ease.

I will convert back to physical when I am more confident of long term steady growth.

Sell physical for paper now? Ouch. JP Morgan approves.

rodzm
12-01-2010, 03:52 AM
You've been saying trade silver for gold for quite sometime. You have missed a lot of percentage gains this year if you did so and will continue to lose further going forward. Then again being in the 2nd place percentage gainer is better then last place! :p

Hi Ho Silver!!!!


I really havent...I was light on gold for quite some time and i dont like to have an ubalanced portfolio. Most of my sales thus far have been in the upper $27 and they have been quickly replaced with gold so my gains really are intact.

Im still heavy on silver and intend to be so i can ride even more gains. To me the gains are not measured in percentage, those gains are for the short term players and those who wish to make gains in fiat terms. By trading for gold I am setting myself up to gain ounces in the future.

It doesnt bother me by trading into the "underperforming" gold, in the end I know i will come ahead in ounces gain and thats all that matters to me

norcal
12-01-2010, 03:55 AM
Make sure your exit strategy will work without the internet existing.

My guess is they take it down or change it as we know it today and soon.

Cut off our communication. Cut off our sources.

The way they tax online and keep track of sales is changing too.

New laws are and will come into play in regards to owning, selling PM's.

Trying to dump $100,000 worth of silver might prove to be very challenging.

Make sure you know where to go if you can't go online to find a buyer/trader.

Find and establish sources now.

theplantguy
12-01-2010, 07:48 AM
Make sure your exit strategy will work without the internet existing.

My guess is they take it down or change it as we know it today and soon.

Cut off our communication. Cut off our sources.

The way they tax online and keep track of sales is changing too.

New laws are and will come into play in regards to owning, selling PM's.

Trying to dump $100,000 worth of silver might prove to be very challenging.

Make sure you know where to go if you can't go online to find a buyer/trader.

Find and establish sources now.

Excellent advice

ianian
12-01-2010, 04:45 PM
Excellent advice

Do not wish to hijack this thread so if discussion occurs maybe best in another thread or in the b & g.. but if the internet is likely to come down or become restricted to mainstream control only, then the old phone line bulletin boards would be one way to communicate. I wasn't connecting up at the time but the few instances I came across it I think individuals set up their pc as a server with a phone modem(s) and ran some type of bulletin board application? I think was text based only and entries just pretty much streamed down the page? Either that or short wave radio communications which was big could have a come back.

theplantguy you say you are an old timer, what do you remember? - (briefly or this can be taken to the bar)

theplantguy
12-01-2010, 04:50 PM
I remember the old bulletin boards. Among preppers, ham radio and other types of radio communications are making a big come back. OPSEC is a primary consideration.