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View Full Version : POG in 10 years; what do you think?


Ag110
12-16-2010, 09:23 PM
What's your opinion? where do you think Au will be in 10 years?

Johnnmarnell
12-16-2010, 09:43 PM
What's your opinion? where do you think Au will be in 10 years?

Easy! Just look at the charts. Lets take it in periods of 5 years. 2000 - 2005. Opened 2000 (January) at 280. Closed 2004 (December) at 440. So lets just say maybe about 80%. Yeah I am guessing my math. Then lets see it opened 2005 at (January) 430 and closed 2009 at (December) at 1100. Of course our great economy played into this but overall about a 150% increase if I am just eyeballing it. Lets just for fun average these and say on average gold is going up about 125% every 5 years.

So lets see what the economy did.... Lets look at January 2010 now until December 2010 (Today) and it went from about 1100 to where we are today (lets just say 1400). Wow! So in one year it went up about maybe 25% on one year so lets translate that into every 5 years and we get 125%. Wow - this works into what we figured above.

IN OTHER WORDS THE HIGH OF GOLD WAS ALREADY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN 2010. It went up 150% between 2005 and 2009 which was due to the weak dollar. Where we are today is normal. The gold has now caught up or should i say the economy has now caught up to gold. Gold is normal priced it is not overpriced by any means today I dont know why people keep thinking that. So lets say today it is 1380 and it goes up 125% in 5 years...250% in 10 years.. so.. Well... that means gold will be $4,830. It will happen its pretty much guaranteed.

PSUDave
12-16-2010, 10:09 PM
Valued in what? FRNs? lol Not going to be a dollar as you know it it 10 years from now. But the oz of gold in ten years will get you what it gets you today.

Jimdaddi
12-16-2010, 10:22 PM
I have an article from 1996 that said by the year 2000 the average home would be valued @ 250,000. Well, I can remember saying NO WAY!!! I just couldn't see it happening. The reality was I didn't understand the forces on the housing market, If I knew then what I know now...... Same with Gold/Silver it probably will get to 4300+. I would not bet against it. I'm more prepared this time

criticalfriend
12-16-2010, 11:30 PM
For me the question is not what will the Price of Gold be in 10 years time BUT what will the Price of the Dollar be or making it relevant to me what will the Price of Sterling be?

Gold is money, over the long-term it retains its value, gold is only good as an investment during certain cycles but it is real money to me. The dollar and sterling are currencies, mediums of exchange.

The POG jumped 23-fold in the nine years ending in 1980 and at that time there was no question about the solvency of the US government or the health of the banking system. $5,000 seems a reasonable punt to me. Today's situation is singularly dire but it won't last. Gold will never out-perform stocks and bonds in the long-term because it doesn't grow or produce a cashflow, but I feel safer in it for now, and my money is where my mouth is as I'm in over 70% in physical, no property, no stocks.

There are no reliable models to determine if gold is overvalued or not. What if the world's investors decided to transfer 3% to 5% of wealth out of cash into hard money (gold)? Considering that only 0.6% of global financial assets is currently held in the metal, such a movement could push gold prices into tens of thousands of dollars per troy ounce. If we reached that point would it mean that gold had become insanely expensive or simply that the world had less faith in printed paper debentures?

The question is - Which one is the real money?

savagegoose
12-17-2010, 04:11 AM
hmmm somehere in the $2500 area

Johnnmarnell
12-17-2010, 10:17 PM
hmmm somehere in the $2500 area

No way! Look at charts and stuff. 2500 will hit in less than 5 years. If gold is at 2500 in 10 years the world will end.

HardlyPeeved
12-17-2010, 10:47 PM
Gold has gone up 20% each year for 10 years.

(1.2)exp10 = 6.2
6.2 x 1400 = $8668/oz


This is just "straight" math.

I think things will start going up more though starting in 2011.

Probably more like 30% per year.

(1.3)exp10 = 13.79
13.79 x 1400 = 19300/oz.


or if goes up 30% year for 3 years, 40% year for 3 years, 50% year for 4 years:
(1.3)exp3 x (1.4)exp3 x (1.5)exp4 = 30.5
30.5 x 1400 = 42727 / oz.

Of course if things go off the tracks then anything is possible.


If POG gets too expensive I imagine they will be taxed on sales or taxes as a "luxury tax" .... a luxury tax paid annually on all "luxury items"....some countries still charge these things...and keep track when you own pricey items.

SnakeEater
12-17-2010, 10:56 PM
The value of gold is up because the cash value down.

You should not think you become richer because you own gold. Every commodities will adjust themselves.

Start to think relative values like Burger index. How many hamburgers can you buy now with 1/oz of gold compared to 10 years later?

I think it will be probably less. With more population with better living standard, we will strained ourselves with more demand on food. If you want to get richer, invest on food production now and you will see the fruit 10 years later.

You will definitely not become richer to stack gold and wait for gold to appreciate 10 years later.

goldensilver
12-17-2010, 11:03 PM
lol could say worthless well ill say it worthless!!!!!

yes im serious you will see!!!!

in ten years gold wont be considered money at all

cant digitize it so worthless!!!!!!

lol go physical?


you will need it

HardlyPeeved
12-17-2010, 11:52 PM
The value of gold is up because the cash value down.

You should not think you become richer because you own gold. Every commodities will adjust themselves.

Start to think relative values like Burger index. How many hamburgers can you buy now with 1/oz of gold compared to 10 years later?

I think it will be probably less. With more population with better living standard, we will strained ourselves with more demand on food. If you want to get richer, invest on food production now and you will see the fruit 10 years later.

You will definitely not become richer to stack gold and wait for gold to appreciate 10 years later.

Demand for Gold and Silver is rising as well.

So both the value of the USD is down...and demand is up.

In 1980 there was 20% ownership of Gold...now less than 2% ownership (in terms of entire investments).

If Gold and Silver investing becomes "popular" again and demand goes up 10x....to go from 2% up to 20% ownership...then 10x demand increase will also lead to a 10x POG increase...as the value of the USD goes down....then there may be a 10x and another ????x due to USD going down.

Gets really large.

beswick111
12-18-2010, 12:39 AM
i believe in 10yrs gold will still be under $2500, what it will be i dont know, it might be$1500, it might be $1800, it might be $2100, but i dont believe it will be above $2500, but anything is possible, i also wouldnt be totally shocked if gold was below $1000 in 10yrs, if the manipulators of the world economy, the USA, FED reserve, China, the "world" bank, IMF, EU, all colaborated together to push the US$ up and commodities down.

iammci
12-18-2010, 12:47 AM
All patterns point to the $5k range or better. While past indicators are not indicators of the future, they do offer information to work with.

I don't foresee past patterns just stopping all of a sudden. We'll see 5k or better by 2020, if not higher. Around 2018, I believe we will test the worth of the USD.

CounterStrike1776
12-18-2010, 01:03 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DJtHL3NV1o

coindog
12-18-2010, 01:17 AM
:cool: 10 yrs. thats a long time. I'm one of the- won't be a frn as we know it- in 10 yrs but with gold or silver you will be well off. stock up on booze too, that's been valued thousands of yrs. just like gold, cant hurt.

PepeLapiu
12-18-2010, 02:19 AM
What's your opinion? where do you think Au will be in 10 years?
In 10 years I don't really think there is going to be a US dollar. We are going toward a North American FIAT currency and it will be called the Amero, similar to the Euro. the USA, Canada and Mexico under the same currency. Say good bye to you constitution, or what's left of it.

An once of gold will be worth exactly one once of gold. It won't gain or loose value. The question should be:

"What will the price of the dollar in gold in 10 years?"
or
"How much will the dollar devaluate in the next 10 years?"
or even better,
"How much fake money will the central banks keep on printing in the next 10 years?"

Gold is a steady and solid value that won't fluctuate, it's everything else around us that fluctuate.

gada1999
12-18-2010, 04:41 AM
Gold is a steady and solid value that won't fluctuate, it's everything else around us that fluctuate.

In 10 years I don't give a thought what it will be because I plan to keep it for longer period. It will be worth lot of USD or whatever currencies in year 2040 or 2050. POG for me personally is just a small but important insurance against sudden surprises. Although, I follow daily the price of my dealer. They say - Appetite grows by eating.

GoldNuggetBug
12-18-2010, 07:36 AM
I wonder if ever the police, army and average Joe find out about the Ponzi we all in that make Madoff look as a very small fly! Gold will be near around 42,000 per oz!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g32ObW8PoOg

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/12/totally-busted-truth-about-goldmans.html

Silvercoin
12-18-2010, 11:49 AM
In 1980 there was 20% ownership of Gold...now less than 2% ownership (in terms of entire investments).




how do you know its 20%? what is your source for that info.

I'd be shocked if it was that high.

PepeLapiu
12-18-2010, 01:44 PM
do not be fooled by those who say your dollar is worthless; they are tricksters.

Obviously, someone here is unaware of the way central banks work and how a fiat currency is designed.

Did you ever stop to think about inflation for a minute? I mean, isn't it strange that everything ends up costing more money year after year? 40 years ago, I would buy an ice cream cone for 30cents and today the same ice cream cone for my kids (at the same ice cream parlor) costs 4.50$.

Now think about it, did the value of ice cream really go up by 1,500% in 40 years?

Truth be told, 'inflation' is a deceptive misnomer which fools you to believe that the value of everything around us get inflated year after year. In truth inflation is really 'deflation' because the value of most things don't go up all that much, it's your fiat currency that deflates and looses value year after year.

Take a 20$ bill and you can buy 4-5 cones of ice cream with that today. Bury that 20$ in your backyard for 20-30 year and by then, you won't be able to buy a single cone with that.......your 20$ will have lost it's value over time. The longer you keep your money, the less it is worth.

When I was a kid a Bazooka Joe gum cost 1cent and today that same gum costs 20cents. Let me assure you that the value of gum did not increase by 2,000% in the last 40 years ...... but the value of the dollar did go down that much.

It's not the gum makers or the ice cream makers who's been robbing you blind, it's the money printers.

uksilverhoarder
12-18-2010, 01:50 PM
seems to almost double every 4 years (2002 to 2006 price doubled, 2006 to 2010 price again has doubled.. 2014 upwards of $2500oz? silver approx $80oz at a 30:1 gsr..?

end of 2011 $1680oz, 2012 $2016oz, 2013 $2419oz, 2014 $2660 minimum at 20% increase a year.. rough estimations.. you can keep on going...

Just my observations and how I see things after looking at these charts.. Im in this long term so I just buy scrap as cheap as I can (at least 10% less than scrap) so I can accumulate more for less. when I have a certain amount I will sell it scrap and buy small bullion (10g and 20g bars) which will cost me approx at least 10% less than spot (covers premiums I guess)

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au2002.gif

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au2006.gif

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au2010.gif

Its safe :)

GoldNuggetBug
12-18-2010, 09:45 PM
Obviously, someone here is unaware of the way central banks work and how a fiat currency is designed.

Did you ever stop to think about inflation for a minute? I mean, isn't it strange that everything ends up costing more money year after year? 40 years ago, I would buy an ice cream cone for 30cents and today the same ice cream cone for my kids (at the same ice cream parlor) costs 4.50$.

Now think about it, did the value of ice cream really go up by 1,500% in 40 years?

Truth be told, 'inflation' is a deceptive misnomer which fools you to believe that the value of everything around us get inflated year after year. In truth inflation is really 'deflation' because the value of most things don't go up all that much, it's your fiat currency that deflates and looses value year after year.

Take a 20$ bill and you can buy 4-5 cones of ice cream with that today. Bury that 20$ in your backyard for 20-30 year and by then, you won't be able to buy a single cone with that.......your 20$ will have lost it's value over time. The longer you keep your money, the less it is worth.

When I was a kid a Bazooka Joe gum cost 1cent and today that same gum costs 20cents. Let me assure you that the value of gum did not increase by 2,000% in the last 40 years ...... but the value of the dollar did go down that much.

It's not the gum makers or the ice cream makers who's been robbing you blind, it's the money printers.


I totally agree with you! Good call, can you do a calculation for me please, if you print a $100 that cost only 0.02 cent to print how many % makeups or profit the privet banking family FED makes!

One day when the banking family default, gold will be at it's true level 42,000

DenariiForMe
12-19-2010, 01:39 AM
Measured in food, fuel, and other necessities, somewhat higher than now.

Measured in luxuries, much higher than now.

Measured in dollars, who knows...