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View Full Version : Today is the day for me to buy - maybe you too?


Ortofon
01-26-2011, 09:05 AM
It looks like the crude barrel cost differential is going to persist for a while. I take this as a signal that the west continues to undermine long-term energy stability for short-term perception of recovery. Because of these (seemingly suppressed) energy costs I feel that industry and industrial consumption of resources will continue to have a stabilizing effect on prices.

Combined with options expiry and my desire to not time the exact bottom I believe today will be a good opportunity to buy in.

I'll be watching oil to hit $100-110 as a cautionary signal, with $140 being the tipping point to convert to gold which will weather a oil shock much better than silver.

999FINE
01-26-2011, 09:08 AM
So your favoring gold for purchases today?

Ortofon
01-26-2011, 09:11 AM
No no, silver.

My hedge at $31 was converting the silver I didn't sell into gold, because I believed it would be more stable on the dip. I was wrong, as I thought it would hold $1360 and silver would dip to $25.

So today I'll be buying silver and looking to convert to gold again near the next top. I don't want to be without PMs at anytime, so in times of decline I try to hold gold, in times of gain, silver.

ifionlyhadsomegold
01-26-2011, 09:16 AM
No no, silver.

My hedge at $31 was converting the silver I didn't sell into gold, because I believed it would be more stable on the dip. I was wrong, as I thought it would hold $1360 and silver would dip to $25.

So today I'll be buying silver and looking to convert to gold again near the next top. I don't want to be without PMs at anytime, so in times of decline I try to hold gold, in times of gain, silver.


maybe i missed it but Au pulled back less % than Ag so you still made a good move?

Brian S
01-26-2011, 09:42 AM
I just bought $10 worth of war nickles :D Knew today would be a good day.

Ortofon
01-26-2011, 09:45 AM
maybe i missed it but Au pulled back less % than Ag so you still made a good move?

Yes, it was still good, but if I was a gambler I would have converted the gold to FRN too.

999FINE
01-26-2011, 11:11 AM
Yes, it was still good, but if I was a gambler I would have converted the gold to FRN too.

GSR is steadily rising, i think you should stay with the gold or buy more...convert to silver when gsr is above 55

TwoHorses
01-26-2011, 11:43 AM
So how do you convert? Bring a bag of silver to the local coin shop? What about premiums?

Ortofon
01-26-2011, 12:15 PM
I try not to deal with dealers because they need to eat too, and I'm only concerned with the food on my plate.

I've been selling the silver privately and then using the funds to buy gold locally. Might pick up 2oz of numi gold today off kijiji. They are asking spot for 4 1/4s and 2 1/2s, but I bet I can get them down below spot, we'll see.



Always a buyer and always a seller ;) If I buy 100oz at 30 and sell it at 25 only to pick up 105 from another source on the same day, is it really selling at a loss?

blitzdude
01-26-2011, 12:29 PM
I bought a roll of eagles and some of those mexican hildago gold pesos this AM so prices should start to tank any minute now........

grinningdog
01-26-2011, 12:35 PM
I try not to deal with dealers because they need to eat too, and I'm only concerned with the food on my plate.

I've been selling the silver privately and then using the funds to buy gold locally. Might pick up 2oz of numi gold today off kijiji. They are asking spot for 4 1/4s and 2 1/2s, but I bet I can get them down below spot, we'll see.



Always a buyer and always a seller ;) If I buy 100oz at 30 and sell it at 25 only to pick up 105 from another source on the same day, is it really selling at a loss?

It is impossible for me to trade in and out of physical since the 35% in taxes on the gain kills the profit potential.

Medina
01-26-2011, 12:48 PM
I have money to buy 100 Oz, but I first need some good miner stocks, and my drivers licence, so no physical yet for me, but if its 22 I cant resist and will be buying.

SeattleSteve
01-26-2011, 12:55 PM
I try not to deal with dealers because they need to eat too, and I'm only concerned with the food on my plate.

I've been selling the silver privately and then using the funds to buy gold locally. Might pick up 2oz of numi gold today off kijiji. They are asking spot for 4 1/4s and 2 1/2s, but I bet I can get them down below spot, we'll see.



Always a buyer and always a seller ;) If I buy 100oz at 30 and sell it at 25 only to pick up 105 from another source on the same day, is it really selling at a loss?

Are you in the U.S. ? How do you sell privately? Craigslist? E-Bay?

I'm new to PM so I just buy through my local coin dealer. I've traded a few pieces but have not "sold" any yet for cash. I had planned to sell to the same dealer if/when I need to cash out any of my silver.

Just curious how you handle private transactions because I assume that would enable me to avoid the dealer premiums.

DayStar
01-26-2011, 01:12 PM
I bought a roll of eagles and some of those mexican hildago gold pesos this AM so prices should start to tank any minute now........

The Buyers of Size are kicking Blythe's tush going into options expiry at 1:30, so I think you are good to go at least till then. Don't know what she will do in the aftermarket. She still needs to keep gold down for the last day of trading for Feb futures on Friday.

DayStar

CitizenKane
01-26-2011, 01:34 PM
Silver has come down quite a bit in a just a short time since the start of the year. No, I don't think this correction has run it's course, but we should see a little bounce here, possible into the 50DMA which will be about the low $28 range. My put options are up over 300% in just 10 days and I've taken profits on them. Hopefully not too prematurely, but I plan on hedging to the downside again following this bounce as I still believe we'll see low $20's again.

But that's just all paper trading. Unless you want to give me $30+ for some metal here, I'm not willing to part with anymore of my stash.

Junkaroo
01-26-2011, 01:35 PM
Nice up-spike you guys made in the spot today :P Good job guys lol.

Ortofon
01-26-2011, 01:53 PM
Are you in the U.S. ? How do you sell privately? Craigslist? E-Bay?

I'm new to PM so I just buy through my local coin dealer. I've traded a few pieces but have not "sold" any yet for cash. I had planned to sell to the same dealer if/when I need to cash out any of my silver.

Just curious how you handle private transactions because I assume that would enable me to avoid the dealer premiums.

Yes, pretty much just private transactions between 2 people. I meet lots of stackers on CL, and I keep all their contact details. Sometimes I solicit people out of the blue, that works well.

Get contacts locally now for people who feel like you do about PMs. If (IF) tshf this will be your base for a blackmarket. Like-minded people you had a chance to screen for compatible values well in advance. You'll learn how to barter (the most important social skill of all), and you'll be off the record from the gov't. I try to only buy from online dealers when I need a special item as a gift or when I can't find a seller locally on my buy schedule.

RoadLizard
01-26-2011, 02:02 PM
It is impossible for me to trade in and out of physical since the 35% in taxes on the gain kills the profit potential.

Taxes on physical? Didnt know such a thing existed. If you mean true physical buy and sell, there shouldnt be any taxes on that. There isnt any of that BS in my part of town. :D

** whistles and carries on with the day **

CaptainTripps
01-26-2011, 02:25 PM
So how do you convert? Bring a bag of silver to the local coin shop? What about premiums?

Ive done it before. Just take in a pocket full of silver, or in your case a bag full :p and a little cash to cover the premium. Or cover the premium with a couple extra silver ounces.

ifionlyhadsomegold
01-26-2011, 02:45 PM
So how do you convert? Bring a bag of silver to the local coin shop? What about premiums?



if your not a repeat customer feel out a dealer or two with smaller buys/sells first before you pull out the bag of heavy metal. once you break your cherry its old hat.

Docaroo
01-26-2011, 02:50 PM
I was out sick with the flu yesterday, but managed to drag myself over to a local PM dealer who had ASEs for under $30 US. (Shhh... don't tell my boss!). I bought 51 to avoid the Californina sales tax. PM purchases less than $1500 have sales tax added here.

This dealer buys PM scrap and does valuations. As part of his "full service", he holds and sells the most common PM coins. I tried to sell him eight 1971 Eisenhower dollars (40% silver) but he said he couldn't take them due to a lack of market. He said he already had a couple of hundred and couldn't sell them for enough profit to make it worth his time. I was a little surprised, but still happy with my rolls of ASEs. I'm feeling much better now, thank you!

Doc. :D

Lostboy
01-26-2011, 02:56 PM
Went to the dealer, today. The 2011 ASE delivery came in his mail, but he won't sell them until tomorrow. Also, no bars of silver for sale today.

Sooo, I left with a peace dollar on the cheap. oh well, maybe tomorrow.

POS should skyrocket by tomorrow. I missed out. :eek:
Lostboy

yellowsnow
01-26-2011, 02:56 PM
I just bought $10 worth of war nickles :D Knew today would be a good day.
you can't crash JPMorgan with that:D

coindog
01-26-2011, 03:11 PM
just bought 2 lots of wash. .25 on the bay this afternoon. that's rare for me.I must have tracked 100-150 lots and never got one because the bids go too high. maybe because a bunch of lots all ended in the same 30-40 minutes? paid a touch under spot inc. ship. big suprise for me. now I gotta pay. oops

theplantguy
01-26-2011, 03:29 PM
I keep things pretty simple. To me, the chart showed yesterday was the day to buy. Of course, any day is a good day to buy. But it seemed to me that the down trend was broken. Today seems to confirm it. At least for now.

http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLightPlus/tmp/img_12960735423405.gif

Ortofon
01-26-2011, 03:35 PM
I am disappointed in myself... got caught off-guard by that run-up and kept hoping it would drop south of 27 before I pulled the trigger.

Ended up buying at 27.25, but scaled back the order to a tube of 2011 lunar bunnies, kooks, maples, harmonics, and ASEs. Let's see if we can get another decent drop to pick up some much-needed generics.

theplantguy
01-26-2011, 03:52 PM
Here is what I was looking at. The run up starting in Aug was pretty spectacular, but unsustainable. From my experience in stocks, a run up like this is often followed by a retracement of 40% to 60%. So I first began looking for a bottom at around 40%, or 26.xx. If that had not held, then 24.xx might have been it. Well it does look like the 26.xx was it. But I would not be surprised see it retested.

http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLightPlus/tmp/img_12960746103735.gif

Ortofon
01-26-2011, 04:11 PM
That's insightful plantguy, thankyou.

I was working with a similar retracement based on historical large corrections in silver and was targeting the support at 25. I watched the recurring bounces from jan1-12, 12-19, 19-24, 24-XX and extrapolated to where they would meet based on the length of each bounce decreasing (12 days, 7 days, 5 days, X days) in time. I figured we'd hit $25.50 mid-day as a low, and the upswing of the bounce would take us to $27 at the days close, or through the evening.

cornelius_goldlover
01-26-2011, 04:27 PM
Bought 10 SAEs yesterday at the local dealer. He is always freshly stocked and I was even able to get some 1986 1/10 and 1/20 pandas for a good price! Bought the 1/10 for around $150 2 weeks ago and and the 1/20 for $80. Are these usually marked up more? He just marks everything he gets from people the same.