PDA

View Full Version : Are we on the brink of a Commercial Signal Failure in Silver?


PM Stacker
02-21-2011, 11:44 AM
Given the way silver has been moving ($33.90 as I write this), I thought I would share a great post by Trader Dan Norcini regarding Commercial Signal Failures re: how they happen and what to look for. It's a great read.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-failure.html

Spanky
02-21-2011, 12:09 PM
Given the way silver has been moving ($33.90 as I write this), I thought I would share a great post by Trader Dan Norcini regarding Commercial Signal Failures re: how they happen and what to look for. It's a great read.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-failure.html

Excellent explanation - thanks for the Link.

gthrush53
02-21-2011, 12:32 PM
With margin requirements and silver price both going up dramatically, and minors hedged at $30 and below, a signal failure looks more likely every day.

Richard Russell - Silver Hedging By Miners A Big Mistake

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/19_Richard_Russell_-_Silver_Hedging_By_Miners_A_Big_Mistake.html

Thanks for the link.....a perfect storm brewing here.

kutblok
02-21-2011, 12:37 PM
"For instance if silver rises to 34 dollars an ounce (not unrealistic)...."

Apparently not.

anodos
02-21-2011, 12:42 PM
Question is... if a CFS is setting up, to what support will the price fall and in what time frame.

KILOFINAL
02-21-2011, 12:44 PM
Yes I can see the price dropping and miners unwinding their hedges as quickly as possible

ChainSawDave
02-21-2011, 12:51 PM
With margin requirements and silver price both going up dramatically, and minors hedged at $30 and below, a signal failure looks more likely every day.

Richard Russell - Silver Hedging By Miners A Big Mistake

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/19_Richard_Russell_-_Silver_Hedging_By_Miners_A_Big_Mistake.html

Thanks for the link.....a perfect storm brewing here.

Silver closed at 32.66 last friday, obviously that is 2.66 above the alleged silver miner hedges. If this is really going to an issue then why did PAAS and GPL close UP almost 7% Friday ? And SVM and HL up 3 & 4%.

Jolyman
02-21-2011, 01:14 PM
Question is... if a CFS is setting up, to what support will the price fall and in what time frame.

IMHO .. I don't see a large retraction in POS from the Peak .. Because ..

Unlike Wheat, Cattle, Cotton, etc. which look to "More acres planted Next year" or "Better Weather" or a "cure" to remedy the cause of shortage .. POS depends on a slow and difficult mining process (and a limited new supply) to supply additional metal.

During this time demand is still going up... Unless a catastrophic event happens like complete destruction of the world economy. Then I see a pull back to a Solid basis for POS as in becoming Money.

gthrush53
02-21-2011, 01:16 PM
Silver closed at 32.66 last friday, obviously that is 2.66 above the alleged silver miner hedges. If this is really going to an issue then why did PAAS and GPL close UP almost 7% Friday ? And SVM and HL up 3 & 4%.

Perhaps it's not...as you say, no sign in the stocks you listed. Noone seems to know which ones are hedged or where they are hedged. At this point it's all speculation from my viewpoint. Silver is moving like someone is getting squeezed lately. But with the world in turmoil and inflation raging, perhaps it's just demand, and the squeeze has yet to begin. Time will tell.

coindog
02-21-2011, 01:25 PM
that's a very possible out come of a huge price bubble that inflates to fast. now go back and read the same blog and think U.S. dollar and interest rates, plug in all the same actions with interest rates and T-bills. that's how the dollar collapse would play out. and end with no "buyers" for it.

DayStar
02-21-2011, 01:28 PM
Perhaps it's not...as you say, no sign in the stocks you listed. Noone seems to know which ones are hedged or where they are hedged. At this point it's all speculation from my viewpoint. Silver is moving like someone is getting squeezed lately. But with the world in turmoil and inflation raging, perhaps it's just demand, and the squeeze has yet to begin. Time will tell.

JPM is the giant holder of shorts, and the Wynter Benton cartel has been taunting JPM's Blythe Masters, head of commercial trading. They keep saying, "Blythe's going home in a body bag. Do dah! Do dah!" Don't know about the body bag, could be, but maybe she is just following orders and they have an exit stratgy like crashing the bond market or a Middle East war, but JPM is in a world of hurt with silver. JPM is defintely getting squeezed, and unless the Fed is behind them pumping infinite counterfeit dollars into JPM, they are going to lose a lot of money on March futures. The WB cartel is playing hardball and not leaving them a way out. The lease rate for silver shot up over the weekend, and Harvey Organ says the rising lease rate means that no vault has any silver left. "Unexpectedly" empty vaults around the world sounds like a good cause for commercial signal failure (CSF) to me. Good luck, Blythe! Is your bag size petite or large? :)

DayStar

ironvic
02-21-2011, 01:32 PM
Silver is money. I read yesterday where Pan American is divesting their dollars and going all in on Canadian dollars. The USD is toast, that's the reason silver's going up relative to the buck. And the ugly open secret is that there's no silver in the ETF vault.

The rapid rise of silver and gold is a harbinger to seeing the dollar crump. The whole world's watching, and laughing, at us.

DayStar
02-21-2011, 01:32 PM
IMHO .. I don't see a large retraction in POS from the Peak .. Because ..

Unlike Wheat, Cattle, Cotton, etc. which look to "More acres planted Next year" or "Better Weather" or a "cure" to remedy the cause of shortage .. POS depends on a slow and difficult mining process (and a limited new supply) to supply additional metal.

During this time demand is still going up... Unless a catastrophic event happens like complete destruction of the world economy. Then I see a pull back to a Solid basis for POS as in becoming Money.

Jolyman, I see it this way too. Silver has been artificially supressed to the point its price has little relationship with reality. A CSF is a wakeup call that
1) silver is in short supply
2) you can't suppress a market for ever.

DayStar

DayStar
02-21-2011, 01:34 PM
Silver is money. I read yesterday where Pan American is divesting their dollars and going all in on Canadian dollars. The USD is toast, that's the reason silver's going up relative to the buck. And the ugly open secret is that there's no silver in the ETF vault.

The rapid rise of silver and gold is a harbinger to seeing the dollar crump. The whole world's watching, and laughing, at us.

I think you are right about the dollar, but I doubt if the world is laughing. I envision a lot of angry people who see the US wanton money printing as destroying their savings and businesses.

DayStar

Instigator Al
02-21-2011, 01:42 PM
HL does not hedge their Silver or Gold production. Neither does First Majestic.

Not sure about the others mentioned. Don't own them,and never will.

willbe
02-21-2011, 01:42 PM
Excellent explanation - thanks for the Link.

Thanks for the link even my wife could understand it:)

About AG
02-21-2011, 03:17 PM
Given the way silver has been moving ($33.90 as I write this), I thought I would share a great post by Trader Dan Norcini regarding Commercial Signal Failures re: how they happen and what to look for. It's a great read.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-failure.html

Let me add to others that this is a great explanation. It's well worth the read (and I rarely say that!).

TwoHorses
02-21-2011, 05:43 PM
This may have merit. If so, then there will be a top. Any guess as to when?

PM Stacker
02-21-2011, 06:31 PM
This may have merit. If so, then there will be a top. Any guess as to when?

I wish I knew. I'm sure it would be a quick top with a limited time to take advantage.

cavalliere
02-21-2011, 06:35 PM
I wish I knew. I'm sure it would be a quick top with a limited time to take advantage.

Quick top and quick bottom & then... :D

Hard times to be a shorter. :cool:

Jolyman
02-21-2011, 06:48 PM
This may have merit. If so, then there will be a top. Any guess as to when?

Are you speaking of Paper or Physical?

Paper .. Quick top then Plunge.

Physical will top out .. drop in sympathy for Paper .. disengage .. and Rise when people figure it out.

When ?? maybe sooner than you can imagine. :eek:

Seems that there is Chaos every where including starting in the USA. :(

TwoHorses
02-21-2011, 07:12 PM
When ?? maybe sooner than you can imagine.



So are you planning on selling your physical silver when you anticipate the market top?

Jolyman
02-21-2011, 07:25 PM
So are you planning on selling your physical silver when you anticipate the market top?


IF I were You ..I wouldn't bet on that. ;)

I will sell Physical ONLY when I need to buy what I need.

I have only a "small number of HL and PSLV shares .. just pocket change. I can only exchange them for FRNs so why be in a hurry to sell. ;)

Maybe when I feel a "top" I'll take a quick Loan and buy some Gold ...sell the Paper and pay the Loan off quick when the statement comes. :D

PM Stacker
02-21-2011, 08:40 PM
So are you planning on selling your physical silver when you anticipate the market top?

No. Physical should be your core. Only play speculator with paper.

TedNugget
02-21-2011, 11:16 PM
"....... Any further exacerbations of the supply/demand balance can trigger one of these events. If one does happen in silver, trust me on this one, you will not have to ask the question: "Gee I wonder if we are seeing a Commercial Signal Failure in Silver". You will know it."