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View Full Version : Big Boys heading for the side exits...


Docaroo
03-09-2011, 01:42 PM
About a year ago, I asked myself what clear "signs" might appear that would convince me that a MAJOR imminent setback was about to hit us like a tidal wave. Like everyone else, I saw politicians fancy-dancing around each economic breakdown. I heard the media coining lots of catchy sound bites. And I keep hearing the average sheeple telling me "things will get back to normal soon, it always does!".

Well the following two articles caught my eye in the past two days...

Carl Icahn is "returning all outside capital because he doesn’t want to be responsible to limited partners through another possible market crisis. He implicitly says that renewed market dislocation is possible."

Link: http://www.businessinsider.com/is-carl-icahn-bullish-or-bearish-about-the-stock-market-2011-3


And Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian seems to be bracing for a global smackdown...

"PIMCO's Total Return Fund (PTTRX.O), the world's biggest bond fund, has dumped all U.S. government-related securities, including U.S. Treasuries and agency debt."

Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/09/pimco-debt-idUSN0926253420110309

I think that this July will see the big event... Precious metal market collapse? US state and local municipality bankruptcies? Commodity shortages? High interest rates and overnight inflation?

Are the rats jumping from the ship??? :eek:

Rebel Yarr
03-09-2011, 01:47 PM
the money has to go somewhere - I think we all have a good idea where at least some of the money will flow.

Docaroo
03-09-2011, 02:03 PM
...gold, silver, and lead??

usc96
03-09-2011, 02:07 PM
I think that this July will see the big event... Precious metal market collapse? US state and local municipality bankruptcies? Commodity shortages? High interest rates and overnight inflation?

Are the rats jumping from the ship??? :eek:

You see all this bad things that will cause PMs to rise, yet you cite "precious metal market collapse" as the first on the list? Seems a little counter intuitive, doesn't it? :eek:

Docaroo
03-09-2011, 02:16 PM
You see all this bad things that will cause PMs to rise, yet you cite "precious metal market collapse" as the first on the list? Seems a little counter intuitive, doesn't it? :eek:

I'm still stacking left and right :D

I meant the "paper" precious metal market... you know, the stuff Wall Street is famous for."

Yield2Greatness
03-09-2011, 02:31 PM
I'm amazed at how long things have been going on. Something is going to tip the scales soon. I'm thinking riots in Saudi Arabia resulting in oil crisis, or a major soveriegn default in Europe.

quitsurfing
03-09-2011, 02:45 PM
I'm still stacking left and right :D

I meant the "paper" precious metal market... you know, the stuff Wall Street is famous for."

Cash will be king when the rate hikes start.Gold "paper"will sell off to cover loss,which will cause a lot of pain around here.The red headed stepchild (real estate) will be so much fun when rates get back to normal or worse,1995 prices are 2 points away.

galtbob
03-09-2011, 03:00 PM
It can always be an exogneous event. But everyone is preparing for the end of QE2 and a massive rise in interest rates. We are also gettin an end to ObamaStim around the same time, which will bring a new level of financial reality to states and towns. Since it is so well anticipated, I suspect it will be a non-event, like Y2K. But it could be ugly if the Bernanke stays stubborn or Congress ties his hands. Another possible stupidity will be that cities and towns run off the tracks rather than plan ahead like some states are doing (Wisconsin and NJ seem to see). But the bottom line is I think we either get QE3 or massive ugliness. The USA cannot stand a significant rise in rates, everything else is a sideshow.

And yes, I anticipate a big selloff in metals followed by a permanant rise to new and astonishing heights..

HardlyPeeved
03-09-2011, 03:35 PM
It can always be an exogneous event. .... But the bottom line is I think we either get QE3 or massive ugliness. The USA cannot stand a significant rise in rates, everything else is a sideshow.

And yes, I anticipate a big selloff in metals followed by a permanant rise to new and astonishing heights..

Its possible there may be only a minor inflection...the longer ths bad stuff is drawn out over time, the more "trained" the population becomes in the value of PMs in holding their value.

If major disruptions occur, spread out, over time, then maybe we will only see the "permanent rise".

Its hard to time the tops (sell) and re-buy at the bottoms. When the World is Running Down...you get the best of what is still around...which will probably be PMs. Once you get the best (PMs) then you can negotiate from a stronger position for the other things (food, land, services, etc.)

mr__h
03-09-2011, 10:54 PM
When the World is Running Down...you get the best of what is still around...which will probably be PMs.

hehe..the police. great song.

what kind of price sell off are we talking here? below $1000 for gold? how about silver? below $15?

i've seen guys post on ZH about Q3 causing a big sell off.....And then moving in silently, down wind and out of sight, You gotta strike when the moment is right without thinking.

Prospector
03-09-2011, 11:14 PM
Bill Gross, called "king of bonds", just dumped all US bonds. That is like being in a bar and seeing the bouncer panic and run out. That is like being on an oil rig and you notice the employees are all running away from the tower.

I have been asking people for years what the signal is for TSHTF. Well, this is one signal. The one for the collapse of the US dollar.

Oh, here's a link: www.zerohedge.com/ Search the page for "Bill Gross". There are several items about this story.

DenariiForMe
03-10-2011, 05:25 AM
Bonds, equities, commodities and precious metals cannot all fall simultaneously. Money doesn't get created or destroyed in a market, it only changes hands and moves around. If money is leaving all the assets mentioned above, where is it going? It isn't going into other currencies, as that would bring PMs and commodities (and to a lesser extent, equities) right back up on dollar weakness.

If QE2 ends without an announcement of QE3, the sell-off will have to push up the safe haven asset. What will be the safe haven asset. If you've been paying attention, and if you trust PIMCO's judgment, it won't be the US dollar. Personally, I think the hype about the end of QE2 is just that. Probably a correction, but not a crash.

We shall see soon enough...

Carpenter
03-10-2011, 05:50 AM
Bonds, equities, commodities and precious metals cannot all fall simultaneously. Money doesn't get created or destroyed in a market, it only changes hands and moves around. If money is leaving all the assets mentioned above, where is it going? It isn't going into other currencies, as that would bring PMs and commodities (and to a lesser extent, equities) right back up on dollar weakness.

If QE2 ends without an announcement of QE3, the sell-off will have to push up the safe haven asset. What will be the safe haven asset. If you've been paying attention, and if you trust PIMCO's judgment, it won't be the US dollar. Personally, I think the hype about the end of QE2 is just that. Probably a correction, but not a crash.

We shall see soon enough...

There is more "obligation" than "money".
The total notional value of all derivatives is north of 1.4 quadrillion dollars.

Individuals will liquidate hard assets to pay necessary obligations.
Institutions will once again find it impossible to cover theirs.

wgadget
03-10-2011, 07:47 AM
So...Is the end game still TPTB owning all the gold and silver?

zoezoe
03-10-2011, 07:58 AM
Well thats it then,rates up and dollar up.Markets correct and some other gun is held to raise the debt ceiling but then again they don't really need QE3.HR4173 gives the banks 4 trillion without going to congress.It supports the biggest banks and authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as 4trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk.
Strong hands and dry powder folks,it gives JPM the chance to exit and reset their shorts...Me thinks physical silver will dry up on the bounce,popcorn for all.Pimco will be doing the old in and out or rather the out and in.Create a “wish list” of stocks that you like but think are too expensive. They are likely to get cheaper soon.

wgadget
03-10-2011, 08:15 AM
BANKING stocks have been UP...Is this part of the reason why? Too big to fail...AGAIN?

Givemegold
03-10-2011, 09:16 AM
LOL at heading for the sides. All Pimco did was take a different position in bonds that have higher yields. Why would you invest in U.S. Treasuries when the fed is going to lower the yield or stop the yield from going up. LOL. You people are a bit paranoid.

When there is a mass exodus, the dollar is going to rally. Everyone is going to try and get into cash at the same time. The rally on the dollar will be crazy. This will be the tell tell sign of a mass exodus. LOL. And the dollar isn't having a major rally. LOL.

Bonds, equitiess, and commodities can fall at the same time. Everyone will be trying to get into cash until the dust settles.

Docaroo
03-10-2011, 11:01 AM
Bonds, equities, commodities and precious metals cannot all fall simultaneously. Money doesn't get created or destroyed in a market, it only changes hands and moves around. If money is leaving all the assets mentioned above, where is it going?

I just caught the financial headlines this morning before heading out to work. US Market down 200 points, all commodities down, PMs down.... is it all going to the bond market today?

I feel it's all going round and round, but that masks the downward spiral. Just like the dollar index being compared to other falling currencies.

Not the nice, orderly market that I like to see.

Is it time yet for our next flash crash??

Givemegold
03-10-2011, 11:20 AM
I just caught the financial headlines this morning before heading out to work. US Market down 200 points, all commodities down, PMs down.... is it all going to the bond market today?

I feel it's all going round and round, but that masks the downward spiral. Just like the dollar index being compared to other falling currencies.

Not the nice, orderly market that I like to see.

Is it time yet for our next flash crash??

You would definitely see the VIX spiking if a crash is coming also. If it gets above 25 today. That might raise an eyebrow.

Obediah
03-10-2011, 08:42 PM
It is just not possible to predict or know what will happen- except with one exception which is that Gooberment will inevitably grow. The only thing I can advise is actually two things, not necessarily in this order either, but see to it you remain debt free, and maybe more importantly keep or get your spiritual house in order as the ride is gonna be a very turbulent one! (If your young enough to wear running shoes keep them on or by the door would be my third suggestion)