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View Full Version : GSr and target price for Ag from ZeroHedge


rotschadel
04-01-2011, 11:22 AM
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-we-being-too-conservative-our-price-target-silver?

Interesting read. I don't buy the 16 to 1 or lower GSR. At least not on a sustained basis.

Long_Live_Ron_Paul
04-01-2011, 11:31 AM
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-we-being-too-conservative-our-price-target-silver?

Interesting read. I don't buy the 16 to 1 or lower GSR. At least not on a sustained basis.

Why don't you buy it? Don't you know above ground silver is more rare than gold? Do you know about the shortage issues with SLV & the fact it is being used for industrial purposes that will continue to make it more rare than gold? Did you know it takes years to start a new silver mine?

I buy into the 16 to 1 ratio. In fact I think that silver has been depressed for too long & will overshoot that & actually be closer to a 5 to 1 ratio.

silvertip
04-01-2011, 11:37 AM
thanks for the li:) nk

strattsp
04-01-2011, 12:42 PM
Why don't you buy it? Don't you know above ground silver is more rare than gold? Do you know about the shortage issues with SLV & the fact it is being used for industrial purposes that will continue to make it more rare than gold? Did you know it takes years to start a new silver mine?

I buy into the 16 to 1 ratio. In fact I think that silver has been depressed for too long & will overshoot that & actually be closer to a 5 to 1 ratio.

5 to 1, that's what I'm talking about. Simply supply & demand equilibrium. Econ 101.

shlant
04-01-2011, 12:48 PM
If you look at the totals mined so far this year, the ratio is 9.5 to 1!

New2PM
04-01-2011, 01:04 PM
If I don't meet my personal goals by the time it hits 18-ish or so.. I very well might trade for Au. Just depends on whats happening at the time.

stag15
04-01-2011, 01:19 PM
16:1 or 5:1, does it really matter? Many of us will be very happy either way.

mrgneiss
04-01-2011, 03:08 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-we-being-too-conservative-our-price-target-silver?

Interesting read. I don't buy the 16 to 1 or lower GSR. At least not on a sustained basis.

As others mentioned, from a trading/historical/TA perspective these things tend to almost always overshoot, and the strength of the overshoot is positively correlated to the strength of the move, so the questions should be where do you think the ratio will overshoot to and then where will it settle. I'm guessing single digits for the first and low teens for the second.

Moonstruck
04-01-2011, 03:48 PM
I am hopeing the "mania" phase of silver. Pushes the silver to gold ratio into the single digits. But that could be years away. If TPTB keep the game of musical chairs going. Never underestimate peoples willingness to let the can be kicked down the road, one more time.

Long term, I do not see industrial demand going down much. Silver is just so usefull. That adds up to many many tons a year. Toss in investment demand, due to fait money games. Allso the mineing cycle is not like slaping a retail building together. It takes years and years to find and build mines. Silver does not just grow on trees..... :eek:

999FINE
04-01-2011, 04:08 PM
5 to 1

I would trade every ounce i had for AU

the_sirius_one
04-01-2011, 04:55 PM
If you look at the totals mined so far this year, the ratio is 9.5 to 1!

This is a good point. +1

I'm fairly sure "Mother Earth" could yield up a ratio closer to 16:1 had silver not been suppressed for 30+ years. Most of the operational silver mines of the 70s e.g. are either defunct and mothballed, or happen to have survived on other booty such as base metal or gold.

For new mining ventures to even start to focus on silver as a primary product, first:

they have to truly believe the higher POS is sustainable
they have to find the profitable ore
they have to complete all the necessary engineering assays, schematics and planning

and not to be overlooked,

they have to go through the political, eco and permitting rigmarole.

Bottom line:

starting today, it would take a full decade to significantly increase silver mining output.

Meanwhile, the production of silver at 700Mtoz/yr is fully consumed by industry; and the Demand for the Re-monetization of silver (which will dwarf industry by multiples), has just begun.

Remember, the re-monetization of silver does not require government fiat(edict or sanction) to occur, but can propagate unilaterally by people just like you and I.

I know I've re-monetized to silver, and shucks; am I glad I did.

And I'm Sirius

mrgneiss
04-01-2011, 06:58 PM
This is a good point. +1

I'm fairly sure "Mother Earth" could yield up a ratio closer to 16:1 had silver not been suppressed for 30+ years. Most of the operational silver mines of the 70s e.g. are either defunct and mothballed, or happen to have survived on other booty such as base metal or gold.

For new mining ventures to even start to focus on silver as a primary product, first:

they have to truly believe the higher POS is sustainable
they have to find the profitable ore
they have to complete all the necessary engineering assays, schematics and planning

and not to be overlooked,

they have to go through the political, eco and permitting rigmarole.

Bottom line:

starting today, it would take a full decade to significantly increase silver mining output.

Meanwhile, the production of silver at 700Mtoz/yr is fully consumed by industry; and the Demand for the Re-monetization of silver (which will dwarf industry by multiples), has just begun.

Remember, the re-monetization of silver does not require government fiat(edict or sanction) to occur, but can propagate unilaterally by people just like you and I.

I know I've re-monetized to silver, and shucks; am I glad I did.

And I'm Sirius

And a big Plus One to you too buddy!

nealeffendi
04-01-2011, 07:42 PM
I am hopeing the "mania" phase of silver. Pushes the silver to gold ratio into the single digits. But that could be years away. If TPTB keep the game of musical chairs going. Never underestimate peoples willingness to let the can be kicked down the road, one more time.

Long term, I do not see industrial demand going down much. Silver is just so usefull. That adds up to many many tons a year. Toss in investment demand, due to fait money games. Allso the mineing cycle is not like slaping a retail building together. It takes years and years to find and build mines. Silver does not just grow on trees..... :eek:
That industrial demand for silver won't stay the same. Kitco has many interesting articles on its silver page and one I read yesterday has silvers industrial demand rising from 450 million oz to 650 million oz by 2015. That leaves perhaps half the amount we have now to meet all the other uses. I don't see the demand for silver by the mints, by the stackers, by the investment funds and by jewellry wearers all declining by half. Maybe jewellry will go down if the price gets too high but the others will still keep bidding the price higher and higher.
A monster box will cost more than a nice house though. I don't know if the :( or the :D smilie is appropriate (guess it depends on if you already have a monster box, so for me :( )

Long_Live_Ron_Paul
04-04-2011, 03:16 PM
5 to 1

I would trade every ounce i had for AU

You would trade a more rare metal at a lower price for a less rare metal at a higher price? :confused:

Wait for it to be 1 Slv to 5 Gld :)

TheorisT
04-04-2011, 03:26 PM
You would trade a more rare metal at a lower price for a less rare metal at a higher price? :confused:

Wait for it to be 1 Slv to 5 Gld :)
At current prices that's what, 7250/oz for silver? haha

In all seriousness though, the people on this forum argue for historical this and historical that - well, HISTORICALLY, gold has always been worth more than silver. Rarity is not the sole determining factor when it comes to value.

Long_Live_Ron_Paul
04-04-2011, 03:48 PM
In all seriousness though, the people on this forum argue for historical this and historical that - well, HISTORICALLY, gold has always been worth more than silver. Rarity is not the sole determining factor when it comes to value.

I agree, rarity is not the sole determining factor when it comes to price. You must factor in demand as well. Right now mints around the world are reporting that they sell dollar for dollar more silver than gold.

That means that we have more demand for silver & shorter supply as well. (There is more above ground gold than silver). Hypothetically, all we need is for the current demand to stay the same & the dwindling supply issues to continue as is & eventually it will be like the hoover damn through a garden hose :).

cpr_metro
04-04-2011, 07:03 PM
To punish us all for making the right investment choices, the Gov't will impose a windfall tax on all mining companies and sales of PM's. In the end they will
always win. :eek:

Stacker2
04-04-2011, 07:23 PM
if rarity or above ground reserves is issue, platinum would sell for around 25K/ounce. It's trading at only a slight premium to gold, but much more rare.

I belive the monatary value of silver has a lot to with it.:) :)

halfhunter
04-04-2011, 07:30 PM
I read somewhere that a Tomahawk missle has like 20ozt of silver in it . . .

Fire away boyz ! ! ! :D

HH

MaxGravy
04-04-2011, 07:36 PM
if rarity or above ground reserves is issue, platinum would sell for around 25K/ounce. It's trading at only a slight premium to gold, but much more rare.

Perhaps platinum is the new playtoy of the manipulators. To me it seems relatively cheap right now compared to other PMs. Wasn't the Ag:Pt ratio recently around 100:1? Today that ratio is 46:1. Maybe time to trade silver for platinum.