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Silver Hound
04-24-2011, 01:32 PM
FIrst- dont give me all the blah, blah that this reason or another this could never happen, it is a general question "if the bubble burst" WTF are we to do...especially if caught off guard.

It is May 2012 and silver is selling for $150.00 per oz (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 100 ozs and other members have 10,000oz (is what i have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D

Mellow Yellow
04-24-2011, 01:44 PM
FIrst- dont give me all the blah, blah that this reason or another this could never happen, it is a general question "if the bubble burst" WTF are we to do...especially if caught off guard.

It is May 2012 and silver is selling for $150.00 per oz (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 100 ozs and other members have 10,000oz (is what i have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D


Got a link to this?

theplantguy
04-24-2011, 01:47 PM
Got a link to this?

Come back in May 2012, there just may be a link.

silvertip
04-24-2011, 01:48 PM
great now it is all used up its only use is currency
it has been used as a currency for 5000 years

Chuckdwrench
04-24-2011, 01:48 PM
Did the Mr. Fusion from "back to the future" get invented? The exit is the fact that if you own metals instead of greenbacks you will be able to exit. Disregard the dollar value of it.

ibanker
04-24-2011, 01:52 PM
A smart person sells when everyone is looking to buy since you will get the best bang for your silver. If silver were to drop 20% in 2 weeks then everyone would be RUNNING to the local coin store to unload their silver. The store owners would be paying you BELOW spot for all your coins as well since everyone is trying to sell. Heck, they might not even want to buy your silver if too many people come in selling. So then you'll most likely run to ebay which will kill some of your profits via fees....

You cannot time a drop either so you better make up your mind whether you want to hold for the long run or sell now. I actually just unloaded over 100 rolls of JFKs, close to 50 rolls of dimes and just sold an extra set of ATB today to a lady I met at Dunkin Donuts. If silver goes down then I"ll rebuy everything again. If it goes up then no biggie since I've already had awesome profits.

Silver Bull 1
04-24-2011, 01:53 PM
FIrst- dont give me all the blah, blah that this reason or another this could never happen, it is a general question "if the bubble burst" WTF are we to do...especially if caught off guard.

It is May 2012 and silver is selling for $150.00 per oz (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 100 ozs and other members have 10,000oz (is what i have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D

Is this a stupid question? Wat if Obozo started peeing and crapping silver --would you buy it at spot?

amglo
04-24-2011, 01:56 PM
Buy on the way down & sell on the way up, increase your holdings & use some profits to become debt free.

Silver Hound
04-24-2011, 02:02 PM
Is this a stupid question? Wat if Obozo started peeing and crapping silver --would you buy it at spot?

the scenario is stupid. The question is not.

If you have 5000 oz and the bubble is bursting, how are you going to unload 5koz (needless to mention all of the rest of us at the same time) was the question, the scenario was just for giggles.

opiumbox2000
04-24-2011, 02:03 PM
FIrst- dont give me all the blah, blah that this reason or another this could never happen, it is a general question "if the bubble burst" WTF are we to do...especially if caught off guard.

It is May 2012 and silver is selling for $150.00 per oz (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 100 ozs and other members have 10,000oz (is what i have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D

Come on man. Seriously. Is this for real ?

silvertip
04-24-2011, 02:07 PM
Come on man. Seriously. Is this for real ?

no, but I never thought about it
and now I am

mperrine
04-24-2011, 02:08 PM
Come on man. Seriously. Is this for real ?

Nothing wrong with the question, which was basically:

What is the best way to unload your silver, once the bull market is over and the price starts dropping and the massess are all trying to get out at the same time?

However, his scenerio was is a little far fetched.

Killionaire
04-24-2011, 02:12 PM
Some other people have said they'll buy a home, but my exit strategy is to invest in things that will increase my passive income. I want to give my silver to the economically strongest and most trustworthy foreign countries in return for foreign assets that will give me cash every month in strong currencies. Then as Peter Schiff says, I can live like a tourist in America, because my money will be strong and everything local will be cheap to me since my income is in strong foreign currencies. I don't think it'll get to the point where we need survivalist supplies to live. My primary concern is to keep increasing my income and my net worth regardless of what happens to America. I want to become rich and I'm not going to let anything stop me. I think the people who buy survivalist supplies are small thinkers. They only think about surviving. I want to do much more than merely survive. I intend to thrive. I know that great money making opportunities in the world will not cease just because America has some problems. Germany, China, and Singapore won't collapse. I'm gonna live like a king while many others will live like peasants.

SilverSal
04-24-2011, 02:13 PM
FIrst- dont give me all the blah, blah that this reason or another this could never happen, it is a general question "if the bubble burst" WTF are we to do...especially if caught off guard.

It is May 2012 and silver is selling for $150.00 per oz (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 100 ozs and other members have 10,000oz (is what i have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D

Wow! With all respect this is just over the top. I have no trouble finding things to fret about but I would bet you "about three fiddy" that you have far more plausible threats to your stack than Ag Replacements et all. And if it does happen, sell....fast. Or invest in something else now

SilverSal
04-24-2011, 02:18 PM
Some other people have said they'll buy a home, but my exit strategy is to invest in things that will increase my passive income. I want to give my silver to the economically strongest and most trustworthy foreign countries in return for foreign assets that will give me cash every month in strong currencies. Then as Peter Schiff says, I can live like a tourist in America, because my money will be strong and everything local will be cheap to me since my income is in strong foreign currencies. I don't think it'll get to the point where we need survivalist supplies to live. My primary concern is to keep increasing my income and my net worth regardless of what happens to America. I want to become rich and I'm not going to let anything stop me. I think the people who buy survivalist supplies are small thinkers. They only think about surviving. I want to do much more than merely survive. I intend to thrive. I know that great money making opportunities in the world will not cease just because America has some problems. Germany, China, and Singapore won't collapse. I'm gonna live like a king while many others will live like peasants.

Amen brother!

Silver Hound
04-24-2011, 02:26 PM
I thought more people would catch my drift, but apparently not.

so I'll rephrase my question. (thanks mperrine) not a lot of sense of humor around i guess.

"What is the best way to unload your silver, once the bull market is over and the price starts dropping and the massess are all trying to get out at the same time?"

Krank
04-24-2011, 02:26 PM
What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D

What a great question! That's up to you to determine why you're into it in the first place and why you're still in it and come up with an exit strategy that meets your requirements. If you're waiting for the top to bail . . . unless you're really lucky, you'll miss it. If you're not planning to bail then you don't have a problem. If you're an investor you might want to come to the understanding that you won't hit the top with a perfect bailout plan. You may want to set points where you'll sell off portions to take profits during the rise until you eventually get to a stage where you've recouped your investment and what's left is gravy no matter where you exit. Good luck, but I expect most physical holders will see the top, notice a day or two of pullbacks, decide to sell on the next upswing and will lose at least half as the bottom falls out. Those that bought near the top will be crying & those still in a profit situation will be upset that they didn't sell earlier. PM's have the ability to wipe the smile off ones face in an instant. . . as those of us who've been in it for years can tell you.

To assist you, look at the miners and look at the Funds and ETF's. Are the miners doing well or is it the ETF's and Funds that are doing well? That should give you some idea of who's controlling the price. Watch the volumes!!!

jmo

Blue Dime
04-24-2011, 02:27 PM
If that happens, you will likely have some difficulty. Many dealers will still be happy to buy back bullion, but at a lower price than you'd expect. The key is to be lucky or intelligent to get out before the top.

BigBlue
04-24-2011, 02:46 PM
I am going to do an enormous favor to prevent you from doing something really dumb. I have contracted with a Haitian witch doctor to place a voodoo curse on you so you fall into a coma for ten years. When you awaken the price of silver will be so high the first thing you are going to do when you wake up is to log on to the Kitco Silver Forum and thank me profusely for seeing to it that you avoid a horrible and expensive mistake.

As silver gets more expensive it is likely that electronics manufacturers will replace it with copper in a 6% thicker layer so the needed electrical conductivity is maintained. That's right: slightly thicker copper = thin silver. The reason they haven't yet made the switch is that silver is still cheap enough and they use so little. Even if industrial uses of silver shrink to zero, countries, hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, universities, corporate treasuries, and individuals flocking to precious metals as a safe haven will continue to support an ever-increasing price. There are those who question if hyperinflation is coming our way but their arguments seem flimsy compared to those (like AgStacker) who make the opposite argument.

Sorry if this comes across as being insensitive or politically incorrect but your May 2012 scenario causing silver to crash and burn is completely devoid of logic. I can see it causing a minor blip but not a sea change or market top.

The only exit strategy that makes sense is to sell off your stash little by little to buy food or some other immediate necessity (assuming your dollars have run out or become worthless). If, in the future, you find another greatly undervalued asset with upside potential higher than PM, then and only then would it make sense to dump your stash.

Please send me a lock of your hair so I can get started with the voodoo curse. You can thank me later. ;)

Lorian
04-24-2011, 02:51 PM
FIrst- dont give me all the blah, blah that this reason or another this could never happen, it is a general question "if the bubble burst" WTF are we to do...especially if caught off guard.

It is May 2012 and silver is selling for $150.00 per oz (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 100 ozs and other members have 10,000oz (is what i have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D
It is May 2012 and 150 Dollars are selling for a bread with a sleece of cheese (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 1000 Dollars and other members have 100000 Dollars (is what I have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made metal has been invented by Dollar Replacements and Associates, inc, and this invention has rendered Dollars as a useless paper (or greatly devalued)

What is the exit strategy for the total decline of the Dollar? :D

Quagmire420420
04-24-2011, 03:03 PM
World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

:D

This both cannot happen, and will not happen.

montywent
04-24-2011, 03:08 PM
The bottom line...I here more forum people nervous because silver has increased JUST AS SO MANY HAVE PREDICTED that some are finding they can't handle it.

I am usually the nervous one and you guys are making me think I've truly become a long hauler....

shamrocks33
04-24-2011, 03:17 PM
A smart person sells when everyone is looking to buy since you will get the best bang for your silver. If silver were to drop 20% in 2 weeks then everyone would be RUNNING to the local coin store to unload their silver. The store owners would be paying you BELOW spot for all your coins as well since everyone is trying to sell. Heck, they might not even want to buy your silver if too many people come in selling. So then you'll most likely run to ebay which will kill some of your profits via fees....

You cannot time a drop either so you better make up your mind whether you want to hold for the long run or sell now. I actually just unloaded over 100 rolls of JFKs, close to 50 rolls of dimes and just sold an extra set of ATB today to a lady I met at Dunkin Donuts. If silver goes down then I"ll rebuy everything again. If it goes up then no biggie since I've already had awesome profits.


Quick everyone sell their silver....the banker has a gr8 r8 CeeDee for you...I saw it on a billboard :rolleyes:

Prospector
04-24-2011, 03:17 PM
FIrst- dont give me all the blah, blah that this reason or another this could never happen, it is a general question "if the bubble burst" WTF are we to do...especially if caught off guard.

It is May 2012 and silver is selling for $150.00 per oz (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 100 ozs and other members have 10,000oz (is what i have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D

Yeah, well, what are you going to do if your head gets chopped off? Or if the planet collides with a comet, will you buy or sell? Or ... some other silly hypothetical situation.

Come on, it's hard enough to get people to deal with reality without you bringing in made up nonsense.

Lorian
04-24-2011, 03:20 PM
A smart person sells when everyone is looking to buy since you will get the best bang for your silver. If silver were to drop 20% in 2 weeks then everyone would be RUNNING to the local coin store to unload their silver.
I would run to my silver dealer and buy 3 monsterboxes, though.

ibanker
04-24-2011, 03:21 PM
Quick everyone sell their silver....the banker has a gr8 r8 CeeDee for you...I saw it on a billboard :rolleyes:

Who said anything about a CD?

PHDtoMD
04-24-2011, 03:23 PM
The bottom line...I here more forum people nervous because silver has increased JUST AS SO MANY HAVE PREDICTED that some are finding they can't handle it.

I am usually the nervous one and you guys are making me think I've truly become a long hauler....

Why wouldn't you be nervous. a dollar a day is a bad sign in my opinion. Just last month we were excited about a dollar a week. Too much too fast to me means large weak hands are stepping in. I think there will be a correction down. I hope I am wrong but I am slowly taking my profits and moving them into gold.

jeff_jenkins
04-24-2011, 03:23 PM
Come on man. Seriously. Is this for real ?

Dude... it isn't realistic. The OP stated that this was a hypothetical scenario and wants us to humor him.

Have you ever role played with your wife and dressed up as a patient while your wife dressed up as a nurse? Would this every happen in reality? no. Would you humor your wife and go along with it? yes

shamrocks33
04-24-2011, 03:44 PM
Who said anything about a CD?

Oh I'm sorry, you want we should put our money into a savings account?....either way ibanker gave the all clear, sell your silver, time to get back to fractional reserve banking...jump in the waters fine:rolleyes:

ibanker
04-24-2011, 04:13 PM
Oh I'm sorry, you want we should put our money into a savings account?....either way ibanker gave the all clear, sell your silver, time to get back to fractional reserve banking...jump in the waters fine:rolleyes:

I don't care what you do with your money....I'd rather see it go to hedge funds since these are the people that pay me to execute their large trades. ;)

bigerny
04-24-2011, 04:17 PM
A lot of threads are posted on what a bubble is and how to recognize one.Why is anyone talking about after it starts to burst?Aren't we smart enough to see it coming?:confused:

And, I donnknow,DO something about it?Like take profits or buy stuff?:)

shamrocks33
04-24-2011, 04:23 PM
I don't care what you do with your money....I'd rather see it go to hedge funds since these are the people that pay me to execute their large trades. ;)

OK, gotcha, at least you're being honest now...I mean joining last month and preaching for people to sell might come off as disingenuous to some...

ibanker
04-24-2011, 04:28 PM
OK, gotcha, at least you're being honest now...I mean joining last month and preaching for people to sell might come off as disingenuous to some...

I'm not preaching to sell...all I"m saying it that some of you are getting too greedy. I sure hope that silver will continue to rise but speaking from experience in the equity market, gains like these cannot be sustained. I sold ALOT this weekend and am waiting on the sidelines for a pull back. If it doesn't happen then oh well. The things that I've sold have yielded me over 500% profit so I'm pretty happy <shrug>. All the people that purchased my silver over the weekend were newbies that are just getting into it. That to me is scary in itself.

I would be pretty ecstatic if silver dropped 50% by the end of next week. ;)

bigerny
04-24-2011, 04:32 PM
I would be pretty ecstatic if silver dropped 50% by the end of next week. ;)

I'd be pretty ecstatic if the POS went up 300%.:D

ibanker
04-24-2011, 04:35 PM
I'd be pretty ecstatic if the POS went up 300%.:D

If that happened I'd liquidate my two monster boxes in a second. ;)

The correction is long overdue.....let's hope it happens soon.

Kerig
04-24-2011, 05:04 PM
Silverhound: I'm newer to silver than you, so I was interested to see a clear answer or two in this thread. Unfortunately it didn't happen. It seems doubtful that there is one.

I've read two solutions in this and every other thread here:

1. Sell before the bubble bursts.
2. Never, ever sell. (Keep Stacking!!!)

I'm about 80% in at the moment. Once the "bubble" goes into full effect (hopefully I'll have learned more by that time to actually recognize it), I'll think about selling 50%-75% of the amount of my initial silver investment cost that I paid for my stack. That way if it seriously bursts, my loss is minimal.

Many people who are selling now were in at $10, so it's a pretty easy decision for them. 20% of their stack will give them back their entire investment cost. I can easily see myself selling 1/3 of my stack at $150 regardless of the situation if it means I'm essentially keeping 2/3's for free.

Only go all-in if you never plan on selling, but don't ever think about going all-out just because of things like bubbles and profits.

Silver Hound
04-24-2011, 05:26 PM
im a bit concerned on the way this hypothetical question was perceived. I tried to interject a hint of humor and some took the scenario as serous or a indication of my intelligence level. I need to be more careful who I garner information from.

mperrine got it - he rephrased it properly - What is the best way to unload your silver, once the bull market is over and the price starts dropping and the massess are all trying to get out at the same time?

What makes most sense from those who offered was.
1-Take profits when you need them or want them
2-we are all to smart to miss the top of the bubble (just like we did in the dot com bubble, real estate bubble and the coming currency bubble):cool:
3- if there a rush to the exits, dont worry i'll get there first.;)
4-Bubble...What Bubble???? Silver will never be a bubble :rolleyes:
5-Sell now and invest in a hedge fund (my personal favorite):p

Lorian
04-24-2011, 06:32 PM
im a bit concerned on the way this hypothetical question was perceived. I tried to interject a hint of humor and some took the scenario as serous or a indication of my intelligence level. I need to be more careful who I garner information from.

mperrine got it - he rephrased it properly - What is the best way to unload your silver, once the bull market is over and the price starts dropping and the massess are all trying to get out at the same time?

What makes most sense from those who offered was.
1-Take profits when you need them or want them
2-we are all to smart to miss the top of the bubble (just like we did in the dot com bubble, real estate bubble and the coming currency bubble)
3- if there a rush to the exits, dont worry i'll get there first.
4-Bubble...What Bubble???? Silver will never be a bubble
5-Sell now and invest in a hedge fund (my personal favorite)
It is May 2012 and 150 Dollars are selling for a bread with a sleece of cheese (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 1000 Dollars and other members have 100000 Dollars (is what I have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made metal has been invented by Dollar Replacements and Associates, inc, and this invention has rendered Dollars as a useless paper (or greatly devalued)

What is the exit strategy for the total decline of the Dollar? :D

HelloMeteor
04-24-2011, 07:08 PM
This both cannot happen, and will not happen.

Seems unlikely, but carbon nanotubes are conductive. Who knows what technological developments will occur and how they will change the world.

Scratchee
04-24-2011, 08:04 PM
Got a link to this?

Here you go. (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/hypothetical)

Scorp
04-24-2011, 09:39 PM
Wow I had to scroll up to here to read about carbon nanotubes finally.
Was going to post about them if I didn't read it. Here is my take on them anyway.

Carbon nanotubes are still damn expensive to make but at some point they will be cheaper. Don't think it will be in 2012 though so nothing to worry about for at least a decade for the silver conductivity market.

I am not sure silver will be replaced by copper in micro-electronics.
A much thicker layer of copper adds weight and takes space. I doubt it would have a big influence on demand unless POS shoots up tenfold. The amount of silver used is minute so the effect on the electronic goods price is nothing compared to labour cost and transportation costs.

As for an exit strategy, it depends what your goals is?
Speculation? short them investing? long term investing? capital protection? protection against inflation? scare of the end of the world?

Also what is your average cost? 10,15,25,35$?

I suggest you start a new thread without the December 21st 2012 scenario :D
You might get less flaming and more valid answers...

JROCPW
04-24-2011, 10:35 PM
One of the most depressing threads I've seen here in a while.

How can so few people get the point that this is a hypothetical question, and that picking apart the situation is pointless???

This question is NEVER asked here, I"d love to see some good answers.

If the bubble bursts, what is the exit plan?

My answer-

Too late to think about, but not late enough to act. When $50 silver became $30 dollar silver with the Hunt Bro fiasco-$30 was a LOT better than $10. It is good to think about these things now. Killver and some others have the right idea to scout out other investment opportunities. If you are not afraid of paper silver and gold, I'd put a portion of the stack in their-to make it easy to liquidate in the case of a major catastrophe in silver. Keep your physical stack as insurance against anything else-a stack that you will NEVER sell, and have a part of your worth in an account you can easily move out of-when hours, minutes, seconds count. If you separate your holdings into insurance and profit sections, a crash won't hurt. Simple answer-just prepare. Beforehand, find what you want to trade into in the event, and have a plan ready to execute. We all got smartphones these days, this should be a relatively easy maneuver.

A caveat-the problem with the paper get out of silver quick strategy....is that paper silver might evaporate right along with anything else. This, however, might be the least of worries.

ajwgator
04-24-2011, 10:48 PM
It is May 2012 and 150 Dollars are selling for a bread with a sleece of cheese (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 1000 Dollars and other members have 100000 Dollars (is what I have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made metal has been invented by Dollar Replacements and Associates, inc, and this invention has rendered Dollars as a useless paper (or greatly devalued)

What is the exit strategy for the total decline of the Dollar? :D

We read that already......repeating one's self is a sign of ...... oh shoot I forgot what it is sign of... oh well

Concerning the newly found man made replacement thingy in 2012.... it will have about the same effect as the man made diamonds....

NolaM
04-24-2011, 10:55 PM
I would be pretty ecstatic if silver dropped 50% by the end of next week. ;)
It would make the prettiest chart V you ever saw...
A hard drop right now would be painting the tape, nothing to do with supply demand metrics.
You would Google the article about Silver being the first periodic table metal to be extinct and you would hold it to 2016.
Actually they used to say 2020 That was before the current crazy demand... peak Silver was @ 2015.
US Geological Data.

ajwgator
04-24-2011, 10:58 PM
Thanks NolaM for bringing reality back into focus....much appreciated!

mojo1
04-24-2011, 11:08 PM
I'm not preaching to sell...all I"m saying it that some of you are getting too greedy.

The banker calling silver stackers too greedy, lmao. This has to be one of the funniest things I've read here in a long long time.

moonstears
04-24-2011, 11:24 PM
you'll recall how Afganistan had 1 quintillion oz troy of gold in the desert, ripe for picking, or some such. See how well it worked? Gold's up another 20%+ since. IF such a thing actually occured, and was not a bluff to supress price, I'd say "real natural silver bars" might command a premium, maybe?:rolleyes:

HelloMeteor
04-24-2011, 11:32 PM
you'll recall how Afganistan had 1 quintillion oz troy of gold in the desert, ripe for picking, or some such. See how well it worked? Gold's up another 20%+ since. IF such a thing actually occured, and was not a bluff to supress price, I'd say "real natural silver bars" might command a premium, maybe?:rolleyes:

For one, it wasn't gold. It was rare earth elements.

moonstears
04-24-2011, 11:38 PM
I was using sarcasm and my point remains
http://www.california-gold-rush-miner.us/california-gold-rush-miner/gold-found-in-afghanistan.html ;)

JROCPW
04-24-2011, 11:39 PM
It is too bad that there was no world wide web in the '70s-'80, would have been interesting to see the replies to this question back then.

galtbob
04-24-2011, 11:51 PM
My exit strategy is the reverse of my buying strategy. Sell gradually, not trying to be greedy and never risking it all on a single bet. Unless you have a million ounces, you don't need a special exit strategy. You just sell.

No technological innovaton will affect prices THAT dramatically overnight. Technologies will only address one aspect of the market. Even when photography was replaced by digital, it took a couple of decades to happen. The industrial silver market now is a lot more diverse.

The big factor in prices is speculators and hedge funds. Dancing among the elephants is always dangerous. Just watch your step. If they control your buy and sell decisions, you are in the wrong game. You will never beat them out the door once they start to stampede. My plan is to buy more when they are selling.

Gold Standard
04-24-2011, 11:54 PM
im a bit concerned on the way this hypothetical question was perceived. I tried to interject a hint of humor and some took the scenario as serous or a indication of my intelligence level. I need to be more careful who I garner information from.

mperrine got it - he rephrased it properly - What is the best way to unload your silver, once the bull market is over and the price starts dropping and the massess are all trying to get out at the same time?

What makes most sense from those who offered was.
1-Take profits when you need them or want them
2-we are all to smart to miss the top of the bubble (just like we did in the dot com bubble, real estate bubble and the coming currency bubble):cool:
3- if there a rush to the exits, dont worry i'll get there first.;)
4-Bubble...What Bubble???? Silver will never be a bubble :rolleyes:
5-Sell now and invest in a hedge fund (my personal favorite):p

Silver Hound, IMO your premise is flawed. You're assuming some sort of speculative Tulip bubble that will lead to everyone rushing to the exits. You're assuming that stackers would join that rush. Lastly you seemingly assume that the normal market for silver would disband.

If for any reason you believe that your scenario even remotely possible I suggest you find another outlet for your money.

My average cost is way under $30. Should silver in your scenario reach $150 I'll be quite happy. If it then drops $20 in a day I will have lost nothing but paper profits. On that day when silver drops to $130 there will be buyers and sellers agreeing that $130 is a fair price - its what we call Price Discovery.

moonstears
04-24-2011, 11:55 PM
question's flaky, but legit, I guess. REAL Natural Ag would rocket, IMO. My sarcasm was growing from the day I first read a similar article to the one I linked. I scoffed, as there's likely 1 billion in gold in your back yard if you dig to the earth's core and filter every grain of sand. I thought from day one, this Afghanistan story was a price supression news release. Might as well have read: "War torn tribal herders and expert camel breeders have used golden bullets for centuries, shooting vermin. Now they'll join troops to route Al Qudos". But even if true, first all those backward ass camel tenders(the areas are remote, people as likely to shoot you as build a mining operation) have to lay down tribal feuds that are centuries old. JMOs:rolleyes:

Silver Hound
04-25-2011, 12:26 AM
well some good suggestions have evolved out of the drama noise.

A lot of people thought the price of real estate would NEVER fall so they would buy boats, cars, snow mobiles and anything else. Some of those folks are homeless now.

I would guess the difference is that silver is money. Silver is under valued. Silver has been artificially manipulated downward. Silver is consumed, not hoarded, silver is this and silver is that...bottom line...silver is the Obama of the precious metals.

so there will never be a bubble and we who stack will be wealthy beyond our own dreams, no exit strategy is necessary because we will always be able to sell it at a profit.

Thanks guys, NOW I got it:D

galtbob
04-25-2011, 12:34 AM
well some good suggestions have evolved out of the drama noise.

A lot of people thought the price of real estate would NEVER fall so they would buy boats, cars, snow mobiles and anything else. Some of those folks are homeless now.

I would guess the difference is that silver is money. Silver is under valued. Silver has been artificially manipulated downward. Silver is consumed, not hoarded, silver is this and silver is that...bottom line...silver is the Obama of the precious metals.

so there will never be a bubble and we who stack will be wealthy beyond our own dreams, no exit strategy is necessary because we will always be able to sell it at a profit.

Thanks guys, NOW I got it:D
FINALLY !!!

Chrisadamley
04-25-2011, 01:02 AM
If you wait until that point you will be screwed. Nobody will buy once that news came out and it was real. You should have sold all your silver at 120 in that scenario.

I think everyone that has had positions for awhile start selling on this rise up, in case it does crash back down.

Though i wouldn't sell unless you have something to move your profits into. Try not to hold cash.

But if you really try to time the exact top you are going to miss out on any profits at all.

Lorian
04-25-2011, 01:16 AM
We read that already......repeating one's self is a sign of ...... oh shoot I forgot what it is sign of... oh well

I do exactly the same as the topic starter, only that I swapped silver for the Dollar.
I got no answer.
The topic starter repeated his "question".
I did too.
Did you answer me here?
No.
Instead, you talk about my repeat.
Where is that a sign of ......?

Silver Hound
04-25-2011, 01:47 AM
i noticed the play on words, i should have responded with a .......:D

all of us stackers are going to be rushing towards the gates of a who concert if things peak and then "pop" and a few will get trampled.

I think ill cash out and invest in a hedge fund :)

Lorian
04-25-2011, 02:56 PM
i noticed the play on words, i should have responded with a .......:D

all of us stackers are going to be rushing towards the gates of a who concert if things peak and then "pop" and a few will get trampled.

I think ill cash out and invest in a hedge fund :)
Not me. When I unforeseen need fiat and I dont have any left then I just sell enough coins to get the fiat. So far your 'rush'...

AmmoandOro
04-25-2011, 03:25 PM
well some good suggestions have evolved out of the drama noise.

A lot of people thought the price of real estate would NEVER fall so they would buy boats, cars, snow mobiles and anything else. Some of those folks are homeless now.

I would guess the difference is that silver is money. Silver is under valued. Silver has been artificially manipulated downward. Silver is consumed, not hoarded, silver is this and silver is that...bottom line...silver is the Obama of the precious metals.

so there will never be a bubble and we who stack will be wealthy beyond our own dreams, no exit strategy is necessary because we will always be able to sell it at a profit.

Thanks guys, NOW I got it:D

With all due respect, It doesn't sound like you "got it"

Bullion_Bob
04-25-2011, 03:39 PM
well some good suggestions have evolved out of the drama noise.

A lot of people thought the price of real estate would NEVER fall so they would buy boats, cars, snow mobiles and anything else. Some of those folks are homeless now.

I would guess the difference is that silver is money. Silver is under valued. Silver has been artificially manipulated downward. Silver is consumed, not hoarded, silver is this and silver is that...bottom line...silver is the Obama of the precious metals.

so there will never be a bubble and we who stack will be wealthy beyond our own dreams, no exit strategy is necessary because we will always be able to sell it at a profit.

Thanks guys, NOW I got it:D

How does one compare silver to Obama? I think my brain melted. Twice.

cds1949
04-25-2011, 03:40 PM
FIrst- dont give me all the blah, blah that this reason or another this could never happen, it is a general question "if the bubble burst" WTF are we to do...especially if caught off guard.

It is May 2012 and silver is selling for $150.00 per oz (to keep things simple).

Some of our forum members have 100 ozs and other members have 10,000oz (is what i have come to believe about members here)

World news announces some man made polymer has been invented by Ag Replacements and Associates, inc. and this invention has rendered Ag as a useless industrial metal (or greatly devalued).

What is the exit strategy for the peak of the Ag bubble. :D



in that case we are all in a hurtin way... try and sell it for what you can get and be happy....
however manufacturing is only one source of silve's usage...
I'd be more concerned if suddenly peace broke out around the world, and the US got the budget balanced and the deficit was clearly being reduced.. and SS and Medacare were able to be funded...
then I would REALLLLLLLY wonder what to do with my stack!
BUT.... until then....
keep on stackin.. keep on stackin... :D

theplantguy
04-25-2011, 03:42 PM
Exit strategies should be in place when you buy.
You don't get in a car and drive for a month and then ask someone "where should I go".

Bullion_Bob
04-25-2011, 03:49 PM
Exit strategy:

You bought something, and you want to sell it at some point. Sell for more than you paid.

Other than that nobody knows what the future holds, because it's changing all the time.

An exit stategy is more like a preferred scenario of the future based on blind faith.

Killionaire
04-25-2011, 04:22 PM
A lot of people thought the price of real estate would NEVER fall so they would buy boats, cars, snow mobiles and anything else. Some of those folks are homeless now.

Boats, cars, and snow mobiles are liabilities. They cost you money. They're an expense. They depreciate in value and they have recurring costs attatched to them. Homes are also liabilities until if/when you sell them for a profit. Until then, they cost you money in maintenance, tax, and mortgage.

What one should buy are assets, which are things that make you money. Wealthy people buy assets. That's how they became wealthy. Poor people and middle class people buy liabilities. Assets are things such as silver, rental properties, inventions, profitable businesses, etc.

If you invest in good assets and keep plowing your profits into more assets, that's how to get rich. Your wealth snowballs.

Most people burn their money on liabilities and they have to keep working hard for the man their whole lives. Wealthy people make their assets work hard for them.

OrangeCrush
04-25-2011, 04:25 PM
the scenario is stupid. The question is not.

If you have 5000 oz and the bubble is bursting, how are you going to unload 5koz (needless to mention all of the rest of us at the same time) was the question, the scenario was just for giggles.

Its actually quite easy. You go to your dealer and sell. If by chance your local dealers aren't buying, you call up one of the major mints or dealers and lock in a sell price. You then package it up or drive it out there and pick up your money. This isnt rocket science.

get N set
04-25-2011, 04:31 PM
Exit strategies should be in place when you buy.
You don't get in a car and drive for a month and then ask someone "where should I go".

Exactly!

Also, silver seems to be in a bubble to me. I didn't buy .com stocks in the late 90's because the prices were higher than the value - same with real estate in urban areas 1998-2007. Silver seems overpriced now. It is selling for ~6x the cost to deliver it. The only reason it isn't selling for a more reasonable price is the competition to buy. I know the competition won't last. Fads pass. I don't like being in crowds. I think it is time to move on so I'll only keep a token amount of gold and silver until the conditions chage again.

Short term trading still seems like fun - the more volatile, the better.

AgAuCaliente
04-25-2011, 04:40 PM
Assuming it becomes a manic bubble, I assume that I will not be able to time the top. If silver starts going down 30% daily, my plan is to say "oops, missed that one," and hopefully will have some cash left to buy more. I'd probably trade gold for silver at that point, and then wait 20-30 years, and sell at the next peak if I'm still around. By 2050, I'll be the one on Kitco with X,000 ounces that I got for a DCA of 4.44. If it crashes hard like that, I'll be thankful I have some pretty silver left. What goes up, must come down, and what goes down, probably will go back up again.
It also might be tempting to liquidate it all, even at a loss from the day before, then buy back in a couple days later for a lot less. The problem will be that no one will want to buy or trade for it. To me, that signals a huge buying opportunity. Say, offer people Spot-30% or something like that.
If the possibility of a 95% drop makes it hard to sleep at night, I think that is a good indicator to take some profits now and possibly put them into some sort of performing asset in a foreign country.
So what if you get 450% instead of 1400%?

OrangeCrush
04-25-2011, 04:41 PM
Exit strategy:

You bought something, and you want to sell it at some point. Sell for more than you paid.

Other than that nobody knows what the future holds, because it's changing all the time.

An exit stategy is more like a preferred scenario of the future based on blind faith.

Sorry but just because people dont know what the future holds doesn't for an instant suggest that you cant have a proper exit strategy. As this thread has clearly shown, some people dont even know how to sell and dont know what options are out there in regards to selling. An exit strategy starts with actually understanding the selling side of the market and that has absolutely nothing to do with blind faith.

TheorisT
04-25-2011, 04:41 PM
I don't think it'll get to the point where we need survivalist supplies to live. My primary concern is to keep increasing my income and my net worth regardless of what happens to America. I want to become rich and I'm not going to let anything stop me. I think the people who buy survivalist supplies are small thinkers.

Where does the food you eat come from? The water you drink? Do you buy it from stores? Does the local water municipality pump it to your home? If a currency collapses, you have no idea what could happen to this country. You could end up begging someone to take a roll of eagles for his supply of bottled water or white rice. At the end of the day, that silver won't fill your belly. Unless you are able to grow your own food and pump from your well you are in NO place to be calling people who prepare for the worst "small thinkers."

How is anyone who is more prepared than yourself of less mental capacity? That line of thinking is extremely arrogant and unless you don't rely on the world that itself relies on FRNs, you get just as hungry and thirsty as a poor person. If it does get really bad, no one is going to give a good god damn how much shiny metal you have in your bag unless they have an excess. And who knows, in that kind of lawless world they may just shoot you and take your silver. Being self-reliant by whatever means is certainly never something to be looked down upon.

OrangeCrush
04-25-2011, 04:47 PM
Where does the food you eat come from? The water you drink? Do you buy it from stores? Does the local water municipality pump it to your home? If a currency collapses, you have no idea what could happen to this country. You could end up begging someone to take a roll of eagles for his supply of bottled water or white rice. At the end of the day, that silver won't fill your belly. Unless you are able to grow your own food and pump from your well you are in NO place to be calling people who prepare for the worst "small thinkers."

How is anyone who is more prepared than yourself of less mental capacity? That line of thinking is extremely arrogant and unless you don't rely on the world that itself relies on FRNs, you get just as hungry and thirsty as a poor person. If it does get really bad, no one is going to give a good god damn how much shiny metal you have in your bag unless they have an excess. And who knows, in that kind of lawless world they may just shoot you and take your silver. Being self-reliant by whatever means is certainly never something to be looked down upon.

Why even bother? This is someone that is calling people who are actually prepared to survive on their own "small thinkers". I find it to be the exact opposite, its the small thinkers that do no planning whatsoever and are completely reliant on going to the grocery store and having water come out of their faucet when they turn it on. Don't get me wrong, people are entitled to their opinions but to actually come out and call people who take the initiative to learn how to survive on their own "small thinkers" is just comical.

Given a survival situation its pretty much common sense who would survive and who would perish. Natural selection at its finest, lol.

theplantguy
04-25-2011, 04:51 PM
But I paid my bill....................
http://www.picturesof.net/_images_300/A_Colorful_Cartoon_Dripping_Faucet_Royalty_Free_Cl ipart_Picture_100827-165202-038053.jpg

TheorisT
04-25-2011, 04:52 PM
Why even bother? This is someone that is calling people who are actually prepared to survive on their own "small thinkers". I find it to be the exact opposite, its the small thinkers that do no planning whatsoever and are completely reliant on going to the grocery store and having water come out of their faucet when they turn it on. Don't get me wrong, people are entitled to their opinions but to actually come out and call people who take the initiative to learn how to survive on their own "small thinkers" is just comical.

Agreed. It just upset me cause I know he's not trolling, he's dead serious.

OrangeCrush
04-25-2011, 04:56 PM
Agreed. It just upset me cause I know he's not trolling, he's dead serious.

Yeah I know, its hard to come to terms with at times but you have to accept that some people get it and some people....well, some people clearly dont.