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observer08
07-07-2009, 01:14 PM
Well so much for my 'call'. A horrible one as FAZ moving up. Be aware theres a reverse split announced for FAZ so that may affect your trading.

Standing aside for now. God I hate this market :mad:

Patience on your trades..... There was lots of time yesterday for the 490 FAZ trade to exit with good profit and avoid the GS15 at the end of the day. I still say its messing with ya today and fas went down to 800 to screw with the mind before making the corrective turn. FAS will be at 835 and FAZ under 500 before you know it.

Cyclist
07-07-2009, 01:16 PM
exited all short positions,re BKX,HGU should be climbing

majormarine
07-07-2009, 01:23 PM
Hi Cyclist,

on a side note, do you have any insight of the real estate in Vancouver and GVRD? It is amazing; when the prices of other places felt hard, it felt little; when the prices of other places climbed a little, it climbed hard.

Looks like it is going to escape the housing bubble?

ADDED: i forgot to say THANKS! :P

Cyclist
07-07-2009, 01:28 PM
Hi Cyclist,

on a side note, do you have any insight of the real estate in Vancouver and GVRD? It is amazing; when the prices of other places felt hard, it felt little; when the prices of other places climbed a little, it climbed hard.

Looks like it is going to escape the housing bubble?

Just wait until after the winter olympiade,Vancouver will be the place to watch in its decline

GoCanada
07-07-2009, 01:55 PM
NG dropping again.
HNU below $4.50. Had 200.000 plus shares buys at that price.
If they all filled it must have been in split seconds.
Bottom fishing on NG and HNU is proving deadly.

Re: Vancouver and GVRD real estate.

AB, PEI, BC bankruptcies up 40% and more.
Calgary is busting hard. Vancouver will follow after the Olympics.
Contractors have very little business on the books after Feb. 2010.

BC has potential to go the way of CA.

GoCanada
07-07-2009, 01:58 PM
HNU below $4.50. Had 200.000 plus shares buys at that price.

Clarification: Had SEEN 200.000 plus buys at $4.50 HNU. Share price just crashed right through.

rrroae
07-07-2009, 02:05 PM
UNG trading halted!!

mad mad world
07-07-2009, 02:16 PM
UNG trading halted!!

Suddenly margin requirement for Natural gas contract changes from 4 % to 13 % in my online trading software.....:confused:

3bavboys
07-07-2009, 03:49 PM
just out - perhaps the reason mkts are selling off heavily .........



US, German intel: Al Qaeda plots multiple attacks on US-, Israel-bound airliners
DEBKAfile Special Report

July 7, 2009, 9:54 PM (GMT+02:00)


Target of new al Qaeda hijack plot
Western anti-terror agencies have warned that a large group of 15-20 al Qaeda terrorists, trained in Pakistan and Algeria to hijack and blow up airliners, deployed secretly in at least six European and Middle East countries in early July. They are standing ready to carry out multiple terrorist attacks.

The terrorists are believed to have landed in Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Turkey and Egypt.

The dates to watch, local authorities were warned, were July 4, July 7, the fourth anniversary of the 7/7 attacks on the British transport system in which 52 people died, and July 8-9, when the G8 summit meets in the Italian town of L'Aqila. US president Barack Obama will fly in from talks with Russian leaders in Moscow.

Al Qaeda planners, say the Western sources, know it is extremely hard to break through the massive security cordons protecting summit leaders. They are therefore planning to hijack passenger planes of airlines belonging to the targeted states and blow them up in mid-air.

DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources report the first specific red alert on Saturday, July 4, referred to the possible hijack of Turkish Airways planes taking of from Turkish airports for US destinations or Tel Aviv. Special precautionary measures were put in place at both ends of their routes.

The alert is still in force.

nofixedaddress
07-07-2009, 04:00 PM
just out - perhaps the reason mkts are selling off heavily .........



US, German intel: Al Qaeda plots multiple attacks on US-, Israel-bound airliners
DEBKAfile Special Report

July 7, 2009, 9:54 PM (GMT+02:00)


Target of new al Qaeda hijack plot
Western anti-terror agencies have warned that a large group of 15-20 al Qaeda terrorists, trained in Pakistan and Algeria to hijack and blow up airliners, deployed secretly in at least six European and Middle East countries in early July. They are standing ready to carry out multiple terrorist attacks.

The terrorists are believed to have landed in Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Turkey and Egypt.

The dates to watch, local authorities were warned, were July 4, July 7, the fourth anniversary of the 7/7 attacks on the British transport system in which 52 people died, and July 8-9, when the G8 summit meets in the Italian town of L'Aqila. US president Barack Obama will fly in from talks with Russian leaders in Moscow.

Al Qaeda planners, say the Western sources, know it is extremely hard to break through the massive security cordons protecting summit leaders. They are therefore planning to hijack passenger planes of airlines belonging to the targeted states and blow them up in mid-air.

DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources report the first specific red alert on Saturday, July 4, referred to the possible hijack of Turkish Airways planes taking of from Turkish airports for US destinations or Tel Aviv. Special precautionary measures were put in place at both ends of their routes.

The alert is still in force.

OMG :eek: you can't make this stuff up , perfect prologue to a Treasury action. :rolleyes:

Cyclist
07-07-2009, 04:07 PM
California is the obstacle.After July 10 ,the major banks will not accept the IOU's.The dilemmas will be multifold,this event won't stay California specific.
The markets are becoming restless of this event,NG usage is curtailed already in the state,drought is creating additional unemployment among the AG workers on top of the high unemployment rate already.This is becoming
a disaster area that will give the big O and his cohorts a heady spin.
Markets will sell off with this economic event.

MetalsKing
07-07-2009, 04:19 PM
Breaking the last support for the BKX is 34.20.This will open a straight drop to 30.Adding HGU ,SRS to my HXD position.

stock market looks awful, just holding my FAZ and rest is in cash, nice relaxing way to play this market. Gold and mining stocks aren't acting well, they are going lower I think but I am not trading them. Good luck to all

MK

MetalsKing
07-07-2009, 04:20 PM
NG dropping again.
HNU below $4.50. Had 200.000 plus shares buys at that price.
If they all filled it must have been in split seconds.
Bottom fishing on NG and HNU is proving deadly.

Re: Vancouver and GVRD real estate.

AB, PEI, BC bankruptcies up 40% and more.
Calgary is busting hard. Vancouver will follow after the Olympics.
Contractors have very little business on the books after Feb. 2010.

BC has potential to go the way of CA.


I warned about UNG going to new lows a while back and I see no sign of a bottom FWIW. I am totally avoiding this sector.

MK

Cyclist
07-07-2009, 04:25 PM
With unrest in Western China ,the FXP chart is becoming very enticing.
Got an initial stake at the close

Harmonica
07-07-2009, 04:27 PM
I warned about UNG going to new lows a while back and I see no sign of a bottom FWIW. I am totally avoiding this sector.

MK[/QUOTE]

....this on Bloomberg....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBs7t3LFX2Z0

Cheers

MetalsKing
07-07-2009, 04:41 PM
I warned about UNG going to new lows a while back and I see no sign of a bottom FWIW. I am totally avoiding this sector.

MK

....this on Bloomberg....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBs7t3LFX2Z0

Cheers[/QUOTE]

Hmmmm, thanks for that, I am glad I am out.

MK

Mighty Mouse
07-07-2009, 04:52 PM
California is the obstacle.After July 10 ,the major banks will not accept the IOU's.The dilemmas will be multifold,this event won't stay California specific.
The markets are becoming restless of this event,NG usage is curtailed already in the state,drought is creating additional unemployment among the AG workers on top of the high unemployment rate already.This is becoming
a disaster area that will give the big O and his cohorts a heady spin.
Markets will sell off with this economic event.

Hey thanks Cyclist. I read all your posts and its good to see you outside of your own thread. You know, the big one with 5+ million views!!

Love hearing what you have to say.

edit- opps, I thought I was in another thread, nope, I am here, sorry.

rtsang
07-07-2009, 04:57 PM
just out - perhaps the reason mkts are selling off heavily .........

US, German intel: Al Qaeda plots multiple attacks on US-, Israel-bound airliners
DEBKAfile Special Report

July 7, 2009, 9:54 PM (GMT+02:00)


Target of new al Qaeda hijack plot

Da boyz run out of patient again since 9/11.

locklie
07-07-2009, 05:06 PM
Well so much for my 'call'. A horrible one as FAZ moving up. Be aware theres a reverse split announced for FAZ so that may affect your trading.

VRNM continues to slide so I am still on the sidelines until it reverses course. Not gonna catch a falling knife here. Once DOE secured loan comes through this one will shoot up, but it looks to me like oil and gas interests are purposefully driving the price of oil and gas down, hurting green stocks across the board, hoping to dissuade clean bill passage in senate by offering cheap energy.

Standing aside for now. God I hate this market :mad:

Looking to make another small buy today but broke through Fib support at 57 centavos. Six long red candles and looking like more in the next couple of days as there has been no support against program selling. The last few days a late drop with little resistance. Float is about 51 M which means lots of volatility and about 30 - 35 days for float turnover.
So, 38 cents is my guess.
Waiting.

eqrgargbargb
07-07-2009, 05:33 PM
California is the obstacle.After July 10 ,the major banks will not accept the IOU's.The dilemmas will be multifold,this event won't stay California specific.
The markets are becoming restless of this event,NG usage is curtailed already in the state,drought is creating additional unemployment among the AG workers on top of the high unemployment rate already.This is becoming
a disaster area that will give the big O and his cohorts a heady spin.
Markets will sell off with this economic event.

Cyclist, I don't understand what the play is here. Shouldn't this be good for gold and bad for USD?

TCWhite
07-07-2009, 05:41 PM
He's looking for a gold peak the 3rd week of July, which would be next week when California hits critical mass.

MetalsKing
07-07-2009, 05:44 PM
He's looking for a gold peak the 3rd week of July, which would be next week when California hits critical mass.

IMO any "peak" in gold in the 3rd week of July will only be the result of a recovery rally within the trending down market we have been in since early June.

MK

seataka
07-07-2009, 06:05 PM
thoughts: spdr gold trust - GLD

yes I know the dollar is losing its buying power, I can see this at the grocery store. However I am concerned that never before in the history of gold has there ever been so much of the stuff in the control of a few entities - or funds.

I recall from the big gold and silver rally's of the 70's that there was always a sharp (though very brief) shake out before the biggest rises... to long squeeze margin investors out of the market.

If gold's price sags to whatever point SPDR GLD must sell off physical gold in quantity I expect a bigger than anticipated dip in the gold price.

and If I had 1.7 trillion us dollars (China) AND a pile of physical gold, and wanted it all.. I would start to sell enough physical to trigger SPDR into selling off into the dip in the market... creating a panic sell off while adding to my holdings at a very nice price.

And I shorted NEM today at 40.24 and got out before the close...

Hope ya'll had a good day

tothemoon
07-07-2009, 06:19 PM
Good interview for once from economist David Rosenberg on CNBC:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1174022453&play=1

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1174036163&play=1

Excellent interview!

Thanks for posting this. :)

GoCanada
07-07-2009, 06:29 PM
With unrest in Western China ,the FXP chart is becoming very enticing.
Got an initial stake at the close

Entered into HJD today. The Shanghai casino is up 70% since lows. 20% of that is bought with cheap IBOC credits and "stimulus".
Chinese gamblers are taking money off the table.

comexdefault
07-07-2009, 06:54 PM
August ,third week low, is one of the most important time frames for gold.
It wil mark a low.

Irritating that seasonality is somehow an issue. The physical market of today looks nothing like it did 2 years ago let alone the ten before that. CB supply is GONE!

greenbeard
07-07-2009, 08:16 PM
Running out of shares sound bullish to me.


....this on Bloomberg....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBs7t3LFX2Z0

Cheers

Hmmmm, thanks for that, I am glad I am out.

MK[/QUOTE]

observer08
07-07-2009, 09:50 PM
August ,third week low, is one of the most important time frames for gold.
It wil mark a low.


thought that I would try to add a bit of support on the reasoning behind the upcoming rush to gold in 3-5 weeks. I love patterns and cycles in the charts so here is a pattern I observed in gold. Other may disagree but just an addition to your DD. I will not hold gold long for several week due to this chart pattern that COULD develop.

At the end of May 2005, a 25 week pattern (IMHO) started with a 9 month run to near 750. This high was followed by 16 weeks of ups and downs until the start of the pattern again in June of 2007. What followed was 9 months up to the high of 1000+ (about 50% gain from the previous high). We are not in week 15 of 16 from that high. As you can see by the attached chart, the pattern (although more volatile) is very close in nature to the previous 25 week pattern. If it holds, I believe that gold will continue to fall for the next 3-4 weeks to a low of 850s (bottom of BB just like last pattern). Then a rise to the 950s, fall to mid/high 800s but not below the just made low and then a 9 month run to gain 50% from last high (1031*1.49=$1536). However, to break up the pattern a bit you may see a turn north to 950 and then down to 850 low. My target is the bottom of the weekly BB somewhere between 850 and 900 (likely in the 860-870 range).

Just some more for your DD... hope the notes help and sorry about the crappy chart... i can try to clean it up :)

Barby G
07-07-2009, 10:19 PM
Now DJIA at sub 8250 has come, so as you said it could head down to 7500.

Hope it will bounce up after that (end of july)

your work really appreciated
thanks a lot cyclist :)

BigAl
07-08-2009, 08:06 AM
just out - perhaps the reason mkts are selling off heavily .........



US, German intel: Al Qaeda plots multiple attacks on US-, Israel-bound airliners
DEBKAfile Special Report

July 7, 2009, 9:54 PM (GMT+02:00)


Target of new al Qaeda hijack plot
Western anti-terror agencies have warned that a large group of 15-20 al Qaeda terrorists, trained in Pakistan and Algeria to hijack and blow up airliners, deployed secretly in at least six European and Middle East countries in early July. They are standing ready to carry out multiple terrorist attacks.

The terrorists are believed to have landed in Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Turkey and Egypt.

The dates to watch, local authorities were warned, were July 4, July 7, the fourth anniversary of the 7/7 attacks on the British transport system in which 52 people died, and July 8-9, when the G8 summit meets in the Italian town of L'Aqila. US president Barack Obama will fly in from talks with Russian leaders in Moscow.

Al Qaeda planners, say the Western sources, know it is extremely hard to break through the massive security cordons protecting summit leaders. They are therefore planning to hijack passenger planes of airlines belonging to the targeted states and blow them up in mid-air.

DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources report the first specific red alert on Saturday, July 4, referred to the possible hijack of Turkish Airways planes taking of from Turkish airports for US destinations or Tel Aviv. Special precautionary measures were put in place at both ends of their routes.

The alert is still in force.

Debka is an interesting website, no question. It is also one of the most unreliable and discredited sites on the web.

marcuz
07-08-2009, 08:20 AM
thought that I would try to add a bit of support on the reasoning behind the upcoming rush to gold in 3-5 weeks. I love patterns and cycles in the charts so here is a pattern I observed in gold. Other may disagree but just an addition to your DD. I will not hold gold long for several week due to this chart pattern that COULD develop.


why would you think that the same chart (chart part 3 as the copy of chart 2) would develop? I don't think there will be so much chaos in the markets like is reflected in the second chart - a big bubble in that time has burst and lot of deleveraging took place. also there was fear of deflation. It is also quite strange to think that after the big run in chart part 3 over 1000$ the gold price would return to sub 1000$ levels.
I would be more inclined to believe that chart number 1 will be repeated as the chart part 3 - it would be a strong break over 1000$ and tight lateral consolidation (so you won't be able to buy once you missed the boat from 1000$).

Bluesdog1
07-08-2009, 08:54 AM
Debka is an interesting website, no question. It is also one of the most unreliable and discredited sites on the web.

BigAl, you need to provide facts to make a stastement this bold. Please provide links or something as I would be interested in differing opinion. Please do not provide opinion pieces as links, just the facts.

Thanks

Bluesdog

bullau
07-08-2009, 09:12 AM
thought that I would try to add a bit of support on the reasoning behind the upcoming rush to gold in 3-5 weeks. I love patterns and cycles in the charts so here is a pattern I observed in gold. Other may disagree but just an addition to your DD. I will not hold gold long for several week due to this chart pattern that COULD develop.

At the end of May 2005, a 25 week pattern (IMHO) started with a 9 month run to near 750. This high was followed by 16 weeks of ups and downs until the start of the pattern again in June of 2007. What followed was 9 months up to the high of 1000+ (about 50% gain from the previous high). We are not in week 15 of 16 from that high. As you can see by the attached chart, the pattern (although more volatile) is very close in nature to the previous 25 week pattern. If it holds, I believe that gold will continue to fall for the next 3-4 weeks to a low of 850s (bottom of BB just like last pattern). Then a rise to the 950s, fall to mid/high 800s but not below the just made low and then a 9 month run to gain 50% from last high (1031*1.49=$1536). However, to break up the pattern a bit you may see a turn north to 950 and then down to 850 low. My target is the bottom of the weekly BB somewhere between 850 and 900 (likely in the 860-870 range).

Just some more for your DD... hope the notes help and sorry about the crappy chart... i can try to clean it up :)

Thanks for the chart observer.........I am along your lines of thinking and think time is just not right for gold but almost.......a couple more months or more........I think 2010 will be the big move and beyond....cheers

observer08
07-08-2009, 09:15 AM
why would you think that the same chart (chart part 3 as the copy of chart 2) would develop? I don't think there will be so much chaos in the markets like is reflected in the second chart - a big bubble in that time has burst and lot of deleveraging took place. also there was fear of deflation. It is also quite strange to think that after the big run in chart part 3 over 1000$ the gold price would return to sub 1000$ levels.
I would be more inclined to believe that chart number 1 will be repeated as the chart part 3 - it would be a strong break over 1000$ and tight lateral consolidation (so you won't be able to buy once you missed the boat from 1000$).

Not think...could. Just another perspective and opportunity to add to your personal DD. If after the first cycle from May 05 to June 07 would you have been inclined to believe a very similiar pattern would have developed over the next 2 years. Yes, there were bigger dips in the latest cycle BUT the biggest run was the first 9 month from 400s to 730s. And sure, why could it not go sub 1000 on the next cycle? Anything can and will happen. As for gold, I will keep reiterating what I have said before and believe. At what point in the future will the price cease to matter when premiums are through the roof or there is simply none to be had at any price?

bullau
07-08-2009, 09:51 AM
Not think...could. Just another perspective and opportunity to add to your personal DD. If after the first cycle from May 05 to June 07 would you have been inclined to believe a very similiar pattern would have developed over the next 2 years. Yes, there were bigger dips in the latest cycle BUT the biggest run was the first 9 month from 400s to 730s. And sure, why could it not go sub 1000 on the next cycle? Anything can and will happen. As for gold, I will keep reiterating what I have said before and believe. At what point in the future will the price cease to matter when premiums are through the roof or there is simply none to be had at any price?

Just for clarification observer........when does the 25 month consolidation period end for this cycle........in a couple of months(ie. we are at 23 months) is what I took from your chart or longer??

Thanks

goldoption
07-08-2009, 10:46 AM
As predicted in my comment last week, Spot Gold's decline has nearly reached my initial target of 912 to retest the June 22 low. Expect decline to find support at this level.

Cyclist
07-08-2009, 11:16 AM
Increased FXP to 50% of alottment,BKX getting closer to its trip wire 34.20.When and if this number breaks ,I'm expecting gold to swing around hard.

The Yen is now in full flight.

exectech
07-08-2009, 11:18 AM
Increased FXP to 50% of alottment,BKX getting closer to its trip wire 34.20.When and if this number breaks ,I'm expecting gold to swing around hard.

agree, gold could pop hard n fast here

great calls

Cyclist
07-08-2009, 11:24 AM
The Yen is going nuts,something is up.

dafreak
07-08-2009, 11:26 AM
Any idea what might be up?

Bluebonnet
07-08-2009, 11:28 AM
Increased FXP to 50% of alottment,BKX getting closer to its trip wire 34.20.When and if this number breaks ,I'm expecting gold to swing around hard.

The Yen is now in full flight.

Thanks Cyclist. We appreciate you.

Cyclist
07-08-2009, 11:29 AM
selling short position,sidelined and waiting what BKX is going to do
SRS reached target 22.50

Goldmember
07-08-2009, 11:31 AM
Cyclist,

SVM taking it on the chin this morning, looks to be near support. Are you a buyer at these levels?

Also what is your take on UNG? Haven't heard you say much lately about gassers.

cheers

Cyclist
07-08-2009, 11:37 AM
Cyclist,

SVM taking it on the chin this morning, looks to be near support. Are you a buyer at these levels?

Also what is your take on UNG? Haven't heard you say much lately about gassers.

cheers

Mentioned silver to be inferior to gold second half of the year,all silver positions have been exited.
Gassers will make a final run ,how big of a run don't know,would stick with gold

bullau
07-08-2009, 11:43 AM
The Yen is going nuts,something is up.

Just noticed that too cyclist and was going to post it as I'm reading your post.........Euro:Yen ratio collapsing and breaking major trendline.........Summer 2008 reenactment.

VIX however isn't up as much??.......What do you think is going on??

California implosion near??

greenbeard
07-08-2009, 11:45 AM
Has anyone ever figured out why gold continuously goes down with the stock market? How will gold ever be an flight to safety during the coming economic collapse if it cannot move opposite the SM?

Cyclist
07-08-2009, 11:49 AM
Just noticed that too cyclist and was going to post it as I'm reading your post.........Euro:Yen ratio collapsing and breaking major trendline.........Summer 2008 reenactment.

VIX however isn't up as much??.......What do you think is going on??

California implosion near??

We are coming close,liquidity is leaving .Cali could be the catalyst

GoCanada
07-08-2009, 11:55 AM
We are coming close,liquidity is leaving .Cali could be the catalyst

Almost got stopped out of my trades this morning. Glad I held on. Market tried moving up and then just KABOOM, came down triple digits. I'm referring to TSX.

Holding HED, HMD, HXD since TSX at 10.400.
Short oil since double top in June at $69 down to $45. Might go lower.

75% short / 25% cash

Going with Cyclist's call on gold bottom for reentry and long in August. Gold top 2011 at $2200.

MetalsKing
07-08-2009, 12:02 PM
A week or so ago I said Dow would probably head to 7950-8000. That is the first place I will look for a bottom. Faz trading nicely today.

MK

bullau
07-08-2009, 12:47 PM
Has anyone ever figured out why gold continuously goes down with the stock market? How will gold ever be an flight to safety during the coming economic collapse if it cannot move opposite the SM?

Gold has been moving with the sm since last summer and that is why I haven't been in gold much lately as I have been anticipating a sm breakdown.......until people realize the value of gold as a true safe haven then unfortunately it may still persist.........Of course gold should outperform the sm but right now I would be cautious.........Gold can turn on a dime though so we shall see what pans out but liquidity leaving should put a floor on gold's descent hopefully.........Just think of it as a buying opp for physical......cheers

Tanta
07-08-2009, 12:57 PM
Has anyone ever figured out why gold continuously goes down with the stock market? How will gold ever be an flight to safety during the coming economic collapse if it cannot move opposite the SM?

I believe, I think its prechter whos saying that it is indicative of a deflationary environment, a rare occurrence and not just gold, its all commodities.

You can have one guess when it last happened ;)

comexdefault
07-08-2009, 01:08 PM
That is a great comment.

Let's look at the big picture. The big bad FED has withdrawn about 40 billion in liquidity the past two weeks. Hence the stock market downturn, that we are witnessing right now.

So why are they withdrawing liquidity. They need a safe haven trade into Treasuries. It is therefore critical that gold fall, correct. Yes, and the same holds true for the rest of the re-flation trade.

What makes this commentary so sad and pathetic is that we are all puppets on a string. If you don't believe that it is your prerogative but you would be incorrect. Do you think it is an accident that coinciding with this downturn is sudden talk of a second stimulus in the face of what were green shoots?

Heck no, you had green shoots for the banks to sell stock and now you need more tax dollars to bail everyone out. Puppets on a string until the FED is abolished.:cool:

Klondike Mike
07-08-2009, 01:11 PM
.....until people realize the value of gold as a true safe haven

I guess most everybody are being forced into the belief that the
US Treasury Bonds/Notes/Bills are the only safest investment for now.

PE of MOPE = perception economics

Tanta
07-08-2009, 01:17 PM
Well bkx broke 34.20 standing at 33.83 according to stockcharts, and golds up $4...

observer08
07-08-2009, 01:28 PM
Just for clarification observer........when does the 25 month consolidation period end for this cycle........in a couple of months(ie. we are at 23 months) is what I took from your chart or longer??

Thanks

thanks for the ? ballau

Sorry again about the weak chart. Tried again and more in depth below... hope that helps. Bottom line for me (gold for idiots) is that I will look to add longs when the lower BB is touched in 3-5 weeks regardless of price. Set the SL to exit if there is no bounce off the bottom BB. Made some detailed notes on the chart.... hope it helps someone in their own DD

goldoption
07-08-2009, 01:41 PM
My targets in Spot Gold for this decline have been reached. Take profits on GDX put option position as advised entering 8 days ago on Market Watch on Tuesday, June 30. After this morning's severe drop, they are now averaging gains of over 250%, that's right, they have more than TRIPLED in value since then. All this on only a $35 decline in the price of Gold.

denaliguide
07-08-2009, 01:59 PM
I come up with 5 weeks from now as the low. I think that is the 3rd week of August.



August ,third week low, is one of the most important time frames for gold.
It wil mark a low.

majormarine
07-08-2009, 02:00 PM
so, given that the rescue of Cali is inevitable, that means gold price is likely to surge again in the very near future? possibly next week?

comexdefault
07-08-2009, 02:14 PM
I come up with 5 weeks from now as the low. I think that is the 3rd week of August.

Pretty simple stuff if you care to play along. How anyone thinks this isn't all completely orchestrated is beyond me. Th evidence is overwhelming.:rolleyes:

observer08
07-08-2009, 02:15 PM
Has anyone ever figured out why gold continuously goes down with the stock market? How will gold ever be an flight to safety during the coming economic collapse if it cannot move opposite the SM?

greenbeard - i pulled some LT weekly charts on gold vs bkx and vs dow and there are distinct periods in which it moves in parallel and when it moves opposite of the indexes. For the life of me I cannot find the triggering events that makes gold move for and then against the securites indexes.

mad mad world
07-08-2009, 02:27 PM
MK,

Crude $58 still in your cards ?

thanks

AGoldhamster
07-08-2009, 02:30 PM
greenbeard - i pulled some LT weekly charts on gold vs bkx and vs dow and there are distinct periods in which it moves in parallel and when it moves opposite of the indexes. For the life of me I cannot find the triggering events that makes gold move for and then against the securites indexes.
Add bonds/TNX and VIX --- maybe that helps ...

bullau
07-08-2009, 02:31 PM
thanks for the ? ballau

Sorry again about the weak chart. Tried again and more in depth below... hope that helps. Bottom line for me (gold for idiots) is that I will look to add longs when the lower BB is touched in 3-5 weeks regardless of price. Set the SL to exit if there is no bounce off the bottom BB. Made some detailed notes on the chart.... hope it helps someone in their own DD

Very interesting observer.........Keep an eye on it.......thanks for all your work.........These are interesting times.........Curious as heck as to what is going on with the currencies and what has caused the sudden shift away from risk??

Did the bond auction really go that well??.......at work and not following.

AGoldhamster
07-08-2009, 02:36 PM
Has anyone ever figured out why gold continuously goes down with the stock market? How will gold ever be an flight to safety during the coming economic collapse if it cannot move opposite the SM?
Has a lot to do with fear and panic ... first selloff and liquitidy stuff - later: the more fear increases the higher da probability to decouple. Remember last years selloff - when was that divergence highest - when fear was highest!

You're going to see the same again imho ... and same for PM stocks - at some point they are going to refuse to go with equities south in the same manner they do in the early stage ... in the later stage, when fear and panic is highest they even go opposite.

again i think it also has something to do with TNX .. once below absurd or insane levels PMs just show 'em their finger ... :eek:

just my 2 cents ...

denaliguide
07-08-2009, 02:48 PM
I think this is the paraphrase of William Shakespeare,"As you like it", ACT II.

To be real, I think even those who think they are orchestrating things are in fact merely pawns in the larger world cycles.

Pretty clear that these guys mess around a lot and accelerate things, and make things much more manic at tops, and more depressed at bottoms.

Maybe the phrase from the play, says it: " Too much of a good thing..."

Probably a manifestation by those who would attempt to control things, to escape the 7 ages of man, expressed in the play, compressed into the limerick by the Historian Robert Conquest, as follows here:

"Seven ages: first puking and mewling,
Then very pissed off with your schooling,
Then romances and then fights,
Then judging chaps' rights,
Then sitting in slippers, then drooling. "

All laid out very nicely in wikopedia, LOL

Yes they found out they could screw around with things and now its way too much of a GOOD THING, LOL, so lets watch them and exploit their moves

DG


Pretty simple stuff if you care to play along. How anyone thinks this isn't all completely orchestrated is beyond me. Th evidence is overwhelming.:rolleyes:

comexdefault
07-08-2009, 03:18 PM
greenbeard - i pulled some LT weekly charts on gold vs bkx and vs dow and there are distinct periods in which it moves in parallel and when it moves opposite of the indexes. For the life of me I cannot find the triggering events that makes gold move for and then against the securites indexes.

I have done the same thing and it appears as though it is completely arbitrary:eek:

BlackSea
07-08-2009, 03:20 PM
Gold is at the entrance of a powerful move to new highs as of Monday.
This move will last two weeks.All IMO.:cool:

Hi Cyclist,

Just making sure your opinion has not changed since posting this. I know you're looking at the late August low, but just want to make sure that the mid-July high is still in the cards in your opinion.

Thanks

migold
07-08-2009, 03:20 PM
I have done the same thing and it appears as though it is completely arbitrary:eek:

Thats why GS pays its best SW engineers $400,000/yr !

MetalsKing
07-08-2009, 03:29 PM
Just exited FAZ for a bueno trading gain at 5.87, just going to relax for now, 1000% in cash FWIW.

MK

Bluebonnet
07-08-2009, 03:39 PM
Just exited FAZ for a bueno trading gain at 5.87, just going to relax for now, 1000% in cash FWIW.

MK

Congrats, MK.

comexdefault
07-08-2009, 04:16 PM
auction one of the best in history. Awesome. Puppets on a string, what a scam.

now let's see if the authorities or anyone else cares to shut down GS if there is any truth that their code is a way to steal via front-running.

What a world. :rolleyes:

cswc1021
07-08-2009, 05:11 PM
auction one of the best in history. Awesome. Puppets on a string, what a scam.

now let's see if the authorities or anyone else cares to shut down GS if there is any truth that their code is a way to steal via front-running.

What a world. :rolleyes:

YUP every single bond bought up but anyone wondering by who? (Maybe the FED, or an agent of the FED making it look like foreign buying)

GoCanada
07-08-2009, 05:42 PM
YUP every single bond bought up but anyone wondering by who? (Maybe the FED, or an agent of the FED making it look like foreign buying)

Yield and demand on the 30 yr note will be telling. Short term notes have had good results throughout.

Can they afford to bailout CA again? More states are in line for federal cash. Might be the day, the lights go out in Sacramento.

errantson
07-08-2009, 06:44 PM
This truly just blows my mind. Surely there will be a day of reckoning.

Surely.

garyv
07-08-2009, 08:42 PM
Can they afford to bailout CA again? More states are in line for federal cash. Might be the day, the lights go out in Sacramento.

California doesn't need a bailout, it just needs a representive body that will pass a realistic budget. They still think they can spend money they don't have. And they can't run the state on taxes from cigarette smokers, or pass monthly budgets and remain in crisis mode year-round. Each side (governor/assembly) is waiting for the other side to blink.

And when only 11% of the federal stimulus package has been spent how can it be deemed a failure?

errantson
07-08-2009, 09:48 PM
California doesn't need a bailout, it just needs a representive body that will pass a realistic budget. They still think they can spend money they don't have. And they can't run the state on taxes from cigarette smokers, or pass monthly budgets and remain in crisis mode year-round. Each side (governor/assembly) is waiting for the other side to blink.

And when only 11% of the federal stimulus package has been spent how can it be deemed a failure?

Deemed a failure by Obama's own yardstick. Obama said the stimulus package would keep the unemployment % at 8 max. In six months Obama will be regarded as the worst president in the last 100 years.

Realvalue
07-08-2009, 10:28 PM
http://www.articlesbase.com/day-trading-articles/stock-market-predict...

I found a stock market astrological prediction posted January 4 this
year, interesting thing is, it was fairly accurate, and kinda spooky
when it predicted the bullish trend after March 10!!! ( remember that
March 9 was the low of the year). In the last paragraph it looks like
it's trying to say July-Sept will be pretty bearish, and that is what
seems like starting to happen right now since we went below the
neckline of the head and shoulder formation. It also mentions a
bullish trend after Diwali so is this article targeted at the Indian
market????

Frank
07-08-2009, 10:35 PM
Deemed a failure by Obama's own yardstick. Obama said the stimulus package would keep the unemployment % at 8 max. In six months Obama will be regarded as the worst president in the last 100 years.


It is very hard to be the US President I think. I am glad that I am not.

greenbeard
07-08-2009, 11:05 PM
That would make Bush II the worst in 230 years then. Give the guy a break, he came into a situation that is so bad it cannot be fixed.


Deemed a failure by Obama's own yardstick. Obama said the stimulus package would keep the unemployment % at 8 max. In six months Obama will be regarded as the worst president in the last 100 years.

garyv
07-08-2009, 11:28 PM
Deemed a failure by Obama's own yardstick. Obama said the stimulus package would keep the unemployment % at 8 max. In six months Obama will be regarded as the worst president in the last 100 years.

I don't think Obama actually said it was a failure. He's still calling for wait and see.

That still doesn't answer my original question, it only brings up more. What kind of crap are the Democrats trying to pull by pushing for even more stimulus money when the first one hasn't been deployed? Who are the really trying to benefit?

unleashed
07-08-2009, 11:30 PM
Give the guy a break, he came into a situation that is so bad it cannot be fixed.
He doesn't deserve a break.
He's already shown what he's all about - making bad situations worse, much worse.

unleashed
07-08-2009, 11:33 PM
What kind of crap are the Democrats trying to pull by pushing for even more stimulus money when the first one hasn't been deployed? Who are the really trying to benefit?

Simple.
They're growing Government bigger.
Because in their mind the Uncle Sam is the solution for everything.
How could you miss?

buffalo49
07-09-2009, 12:31 AM
Simple.
They're growing Government bigger.
Because in their mind the Uncle Sam is the solution for everything.
How could you miss?

Heard tonight that the federal agency responsible for security in govt. buildings was stung by another federal agency and they snuck bomb making materials into dozens of buildings undetected. Head of security branch blamed lack of funding for not training security personnel properly. The IRS took over a whore house in las vegas for tax evasion and tried to run it and had to shut it down because they were losing money. If govt can't make money running a whore house, do we need more of the same?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYscnFpEyA

Goldbugga
07-09-2009, 02:23 AM
This mess was going to happen to whoever stepped into office. Oh well, printing all that stimulus money is going to make people in this forum more wealthy, relatively.

Bluebonnet
07-09-2009, 09:25 AM
The IRS took over a whore house in las vegas for tax evasion and tried to run it and had to shut it down because they were losing money. If govt can't make money running a whore house, do we need more of the same?

I just have have to laugh at this one. This is so twisted on so many levels... it's either laugh or cry. This isn't the US I thought I grew up in. Canada is looking pretty good right now...just trying to figure out what part of Canada isn't so cold in the winter.

Collectivist
07-09-2009, 09:26 AM
auction one of the best in history. Awesome. Puppets on a string, what a scam.

now let's see if the authorities or anyone else cares to shut down GS if there is any truth that their code is a way to steal via front-running.

What a world. :rolleyes:

As I stated before, foreign central banks will defend the USD over their own national currencies. The US debt is being monetized globally at the expense of the rest of the world.

America's most important export is inflation.

The increased vigor in the latest auction, and talk of new stimulus tells me California will be bailed out absolutely.

Sheer insanity. All this buying of US debt by foreign central banks will make it difficult for foreigners to decouple themselves from the upcoming US debt default.

The coming hyperinflation will be one across all fiat currencies simultaneously as the rate of fiat currency debasement will be uncontrollable.

All planned ofcourse and, I suspect, will benefit a small country in the middle east when the time is right. All will witness the method to the madness soon enough.

GoCanada
07-09-2009, 09:54 AM
I just have have to laugh at this one. This is so twisted on so many levels... it's either laugh or cry. This isn't the US I thought I grew up in. Canada is looking pretty good right now...just trying to figure out what part of Canada isn't so cold in the winter.

Southwest BC. Vancouver and Victoria have live Palm trees. Not large or anything but if they can survive the winter here, so should you ;)

compdan
07-09-2009, 09:54 AM
Guess the IRS thought it would be a good fit for them because they have a lot of experience in screwing people too.

MetalsKing
07-09-2009, 09:59 AM
Just bought a modest trading position in HGU at 10.35 and some GTU at 35.55. Tight stops being used.

MK

Bluebonnet
07-09-2009, 10:29 AM
Southwest BC. Vancouver and Victoria have live Palm trees. Not large or anything but if they can survive the winter here, so should you ;)

Thanks - we have actually considered BC. It's beautiful, albeit expensive.

Bluebonnet
07-09-2009, 10:30 AM
Guess the IRS thought it would be a good fit for them because they have a lot of experience in screwing people too.

LOL... for sure.

nomorerollbacks
07-09-2009, 10:31 AM
I HAVE BANANA TREES IN VANCOUVER.
7121 SHARES IN HXD
AND NONE IN.......
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Account positions will be updated to reflect the split shares on Friday July 10, 2009.

nomorerollbacks
07-09-2009, 10:37 AM
I Have A Small House On 50 X122 Lot For Sale Overlooking The Harbour And The Mountains On The Heights On The First Street In Vancouver For Sale...$1 Million Last Year...this Year.. ????

comexdefault
07-09-2009, 11:00 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31828467

Second stimulus chorus grows louder, never mind the first stimulus of 800 billion or so has not even been distributed yet! We need another.

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 11:01 AM
Bought this morning HTD,30 year bonds might be a little more difficult to place

comexdefault
07-09-2009, 11:02 AM
open interest went up!

Where's the liquidation?:confused: :rolleyes:

GoCanada
07-09-2009, 12:02 PM
I Have A Small House On 50 X122 Lot For Sale Overlooking The Harbour And The Mountains On The Heights On The First Street In Vancouver For Sale...$1 Million Last Year...this Year.. ????

Trade it for five 1-bedroom condos at Olympic Village and rent it out to city to accomodate the homeless. No matter how bad the economy, Vancouver always finds cash to help the homeless. This is depression fail proof :D

Rolling Stone magazine has a great article on GS and market manipulation. The fraud is going main stream media now. Watch for some GS, PPT, FED and Treasury action to try and divert attention from the issue. They're monitoring the fallout that much is certain.

HOD in/out this morning. When I see buy orders for 100.000 shares at $14.80 and then stock pops open at $15.02, you gotta get a piece of that action.

What's up with AA Alcoa numbers? They had 3 big losses in a row and the new normal is that the losses are less than expected? So AA is up and that lifts the market? Oil breached $60. :eek:

If my business posts 3 major consecutive quarterly losses, I'm sure my shareholders are going to jump into the stock just because the 3rd loss was less than I had anticipated. Because they know I'm all doom & gloom, and then my numbers are better and they will jump for joy. / NOT.

New unemployment stats .. when is the correction coming? :) MSNBC reported actual employment is pushing 20% by 'real world' counting standards. I guess that news slipped through and now the numbers need to SHINE.

comexdefault
07-09-2009, 12:14 PM
take on the open interest conundrum and his views on why the commercials are so interested in being short gold and silver. Are they hedged? If so where ?

One thing I find utterly confusing is why would the COT structure remain anything like this when it seems clear that gold is going to enter a hard up phase in the months and few years to come.

Is the goal to lose money? Are they backstopped?:rolleyes:

Vangruv
07-09-2009, 12:27 PM
Thanks - we have actually considered BC. It's beautiful, albeit expensive.

Vancouver doesn't get cold, but it gets rainy in the winter. I don't wear a winter jacket or gloves in the winter. Nothing beats Vancouver's summers. One of our beaches was ranked #3 in North America's sexiest beaches this past week by Forbes. Not too shabby.

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 12:37 PM
take on the open interest conundrum and his views on why the commercials are so interested in being short gold and silver. Are they hedged? If so where ?

One thing I find utterly confusing is why would the COT structure remain anything like this when it seems clear that gold is going to enter a hard up phase in the months and few years to come.

Is the goal to lose money? Are they backstopped?:rolleyes:

The commercials are eyeing deflation in the horizon,the bond market thinks differently.The bond rally from the lows has expired,BKX is taking the markets higher,even though the oils and NG having their last run for the summer.Oil could still hit 80 in two weeks.All sorts of crosscurrents,they all fall into place in a couple of weeks.Seasonalities ,HXD and FXP will be nice ST investments into the fall.The second wave of deleveraging will bring the Dow at least to the 5000 level,the FXP, HXD,HJD and HSD will all do well.
Lots of money to be made.

jabat
07-09-2009, 12:55 PM
Cyclist,
How high do you see main market going upto?

Thanks,

GoldGoat
07-09-2009, 01:12 PM
The commercials are eyeing deflation in the horizon,the bond market thinks differently.The bond rally from the lows has expired,BKX is taking the markets higher,even though the oils and NG having their last run for the summer.Oil could still hit 80 in two weeks.All sorts of crosscurrents,they all fall into place in a couple of weeks.Seasonalities ,HXD and FXP will be nice ST investments into the fall.The second wave of deleveraging will bring the Dow at least to the 5000 level,the FXP, HXD,HJD and HSD will all do well.
Lots of money to be made.

Hi Cyclist, Just curious how you see this? FXP bearish China with HSD and HJD bullish China. Thanks!

titusjma
07-09-2009, 01:19 PM
Hi Cyclist, Just curious how you see this? FXP bearish China with HSD and HJD bullish China. Thanks!
FXP bearish China
HSD double bear on SP500
HJD double bear emerging markets

silverrex
07-09-2009, 01:39 PM
The commercials are eyeing deflation in the horizon,the bond market thinks differently.The bond rally from the lows has expired,BKX is taking the markets higher,even though the oils and NG having their last run for the summer.Oil could still hit 80 in two weeks.All sorts of crosscurrents,they all fall into place in a couple of weeks.Seasonalities ,HXD and FXP will be nice ST investments into the fall.The second wave of deleveraging will bring the Dow at least to the 5000 level,the FXP, HXD,HJD and HSD will all do well.
Lots of money to be made.

do you really think the DOW will drop to 5000 in this current decline? I was told by a very good EW analysis that the DOW needs to make it to 9-11k before it can begin a C wave down to new lows. He suggested the current drop is a normal counter trend corrective and once it finds a bottom in the mid 7000 range it will begin another rise higher.

if we look at it that way, then it would be in line that oil could still make a run to 81 after it bottoms out some where in the 50-58 area.

GoldGoat
07-09-2009, 01:41 PM
FXP bearish China
HSD double bear on SP500
HJD double bear emerging markets

Thank You titusjma for the correction.

MetalsKing
07-09-2009, 01:57 PM
do you really think the DOW will drop to 5000 in this current decline? I was told by a very good EW analysis that the DOW needs to make it to 9-11k before it can begin a C wave down to new lows. He suggested the current drop is a normal counter trend corrective and once it finds a bottom in the mid 7000 range it will begin another rise higher.

if we look at it that way, then it would be in line that oil could still make a run to 81 after it bottoms out some where in the 50-58 area.

Going to 9-11k is possible but unlikely IMO.

MK

SpiderMan
07-09-2009, 02:16 PM
The bond rally from the lows has expired,BKX is taking the markets higher,even though the oils and NG having their last run for the summer.Oil could still hit 80 in two weeks.

Are you already long the main market? or any particular turndates?

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 02:18 PM
do you really think the DOW will drop to 5000 in this current decline? I was told by a very good EW analysis that the DOW needs to make it to 9-11k before it can begin a C wave down to new lows. He suggested the current drop is a normal counter trend corrective and once it finds a bottom in the mid 7000 range it will begin another rise higher.

if we look at it that way, then it would be in line that oil could still make a run to 81 after it bottoms out some where in the 50-58 area.

BKX is the key where the markets are going.The window of time is closing on the Dow.There is a possibility of 9500 as there is for oil at 80 by the third week of July.Looking at the emerging markets index it shows that we have seen the highs IMO.FXP and HJD flattening and rising.

mad mad world
07-09-2009, 02:23 PM
BKX is the key where the markets are going.The window of time is closing on the Dow.There is a possibility of 9500 as there is for oil at 80 by the third week of July.Looking at the emerging markets index it shows that we have seen the highs IMO.FXP and HJD flattening and rising.

Cyclist,

When do you think pull back in crude going to finish and start towards $80 going to start ?

Any turn date between now and third week of july ?


Thanks
MMW

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 02:24 PM
Are you already long the main market? or any particular turndates?

I'm still long in some NG and oil stocks,but have shorted the main markets
in a day trade mode.The week of July the 22nd, I will be short the market 100%

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 02:28 PM
Cyclist,

When do you think pull back in crude going to finish and start towards $80 going to start ?



Any turn date between now and third week of july ?


Thanks
MMW

BKX flashed a green light ,we should start moving to our objective

mad mad world
07-09-2009, 02:33 PM
BKX flashed a green light ,we should start moving to our objective

Looks like crude made doji today in daily chart after falling continiously 8 days....
might be another indication for run towards higher price...

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 03:39 PM
markets are giving a nice short term sell signal.bought HXD and HJD

bullau
07-09-2009, 03:44 PM
BKX flashed a green light ,we should start moving to our objective

What are you seeing cyclist? Just curious because to me unless BKX breaks $35 convincingly then I am not convinced of a rally as well there doesn't seem to be any positive divergence giving credence to BKX breaking higher.....yet.........I think we still have some more selling waves ahead either resuming late tomorrow or Friday.

Oil does look like it could make a run at the latest highs as it may have put in a short term bottom or very close but the oil equities look like they have put in their highs and don't interest me.

NG could be the big outperformer as it has been lagging if we do get one more rally....either way everything is looking very bearish and if we get the gift of one more sucker rally than it will be an excellent opportunity to go short.

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 03:48 PM
What are you seeing cyclist? Just curious because to me unless BKX breaks $35 convincingly then I am not convinced of a rally as well there doesn't seem to be any positive divergence giving credence to BKX breaking higher.....yet.........I think we still have some more selling waves ahead either resuming late tomorrow or Friday.

Oil does look like it could make a run at the latest highs as it may have put in a short term bottom or very close but the oil equities look like they have put in their highs and don't interest me.

NG could be the big outperformer as it has been lagging if we do get one more rally....either way everything is looking very bearish and if we get the gift of one more sucker rally than it will be an excellent opportunity to go short.

looking at the price action of the Dow,full of nuances sharply going down and up with a lack of volume.This is a market going down big way after a sucker rally.

bullau
07-09-2009, 03:53 PM
looking at the price action of the Dow,full of nuances sharply going down and up with a lack of volume.This is a market going down big way after a sucker rally.

Totally agree.......thanks.

locklie
07-09-2009, 03:54 PM
Nibbled on some FEED today.

GoCanada
07-09-2009, 04:40 PM
looking at the price action of the Dow,full of nuances sharply going down and up with a lack of volume.This is a market going down big way after a sucker rally.

Agreed. Low volume is the indicator. Fresh money is not coming into the markets until the sell off is completed. Lots of money on the table still.

If "green shoots" and "recovery" were anything real, there wouldn't be a reason for a 2nd stimulus that's now promoted by Warren Buffet.

This is NOT a guessing game anymore.

Nelderand
07-09-2009, 04:42 PM
BKX flashed a green light ,we should start moving to our objective

Isn't the Dollar Index the key?

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 05:01 PM
Isn't the Dollar Index the key?

variety of clues ,volume is becoming more paramount in deciding,next BKX ,
Bonds/USDindex and last my personal liquidity index with different ratios.

CarRide
07-09-2009, 05:42 PM
looking at the price action of the Dow,full of nuances sharply going down and up with a lack of volume.This is a market going down big way after a sucker rally.

I've been hanging onto a small position in FAS. I'm just wondering if I should give it one more week before I sell with a loss (albeit small). From what you're saying maybe I should hang on 'til sometime next week.

Also have a couple of commodities, and trying to figure out about those.

texarcana
07-09-2009, 06:48 PM
do i have this accurate?
1) we think that from now till july 22nd, commodities rally and and general stock market rallies to produce a sucker rally, to top on the 22nd of july or so and then decline into the fall? BKX has bottom and turns up for the sucker rally? Dow 5000 a strong possibility.
Short the main stock markets S&P, Dow ....FXP,HXD.to, HSD.to, etc,etc, at this point, SRS to be used as the commercial real estate market comes apart and next wave of residential real estate comes apart?

Gold climbs and gold stocks climb into and up to july 22? does not go on into August 1-3? as happened on June 3-4?
then gold and gold stocks go down into the third week of August, to form a higher low, higher than the current $910?
Does gold climb from 3rd week of August into September and keeps going up for the rest of 2009 into february 2010 ? or does gold go down into October similar to last year as the next wave of deleveraging happens?

BKX flashed a green light ,we should start moving to our objective

GoCanada
07-09-2009, 07:27 PM
It's summer. The smart money is out. Can't see much of a sucker's rally if any at all. Is not like March and a big bottom with lots of upside opportunity. Economy is the shits and the story doesn't go away.

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 07:38 PM
do i have this accurate?
1) we think that from now till july 22nd, commodities rally and and general stock market rallies to produce a sucker rally, to top on the 22nd of july or so and then decline into the fall? BKX has bottom and turns up for the sucker rally? Dow 5000 a strong possibility.
Short the main stock markets S&P, Dow ....FXP,HXD.to, HSD.to, etc,etc, at this point, SRS to be used as the commercial real estate market comes apart and next wave of residential real estate comes apart?

Gold climbs and gold stocks climb into and up to july 22? does not go on into August 1-3? as happened on June 3-4?
then gold and gold stocks go down into the third week of August, to form a higher low, higher than the current $910?
Does gold climb from 3rd week of August into September and keeps going up for the rest of 2009 into february 2010 ? or does gold go down into October similar to last year as the next wave of deleveraging happens?

The big question is how severe the deleveraging is going to be.Liquidity
can dry up in an hour.The main cycles are in place where a high can be expected the third week of July and a low on Gann's anniversary for gold August 23 .Since 23 is a Sunday ,it will be the 21st or 24th.The rise of gold, in earnest ,will happen from between the second /third week of November.
September is a toss up.2010 April ,all markets will move,especially the gold and oil stocks .Money will be loosing its value in the inflationary spiral to follow.Residential property prices will bottom in the spring 2010 as well.

GoCanada
07-09-2009, 07:50 PM
Cyclist, appreciate your research and input.
Are you holding HXD, HJD ?

Cyclist
07-09-2009, 08:18 PM
Cyclist, appreciate your research and input.
Are you holding HXD, HJD ?

Yes ,HXD,HJD,HSD,SRS,HTD and FXP.FXY is the one to watch as it has broken out quite forcefully.

GoCanada
07-09-2009, 08:34 PM
Yes ,HXD,HJD,HSD,SRS,HTD and FXP.FXY is the one to watch as it has broken out quite forcefully.

Commodities trending up towards 3rd week July would lift TSX and bring down HXD.

Bradley has an "important" turn date for 14/15. I don't follow Bradley other than identifying a trend.

Maybe tomorrow is good day to pull shorts and get back in after 22/07?

Read elsewhere call for $80 oil by 3rd week of July followed by the $60 low first week of July. If they can pull oil back to that level, markets would rally along.

Personally, can't see it happening but I couldn't see the 2nd leg of the rally after April 20th either and missed some opportunity there. This would be 3rd time rally, typical suckers rally.

MetalsKing
07-09-2009, 09:02 PM
Commodities trending up towards 3rd week July would lift TSX and bring down HXD.

Bradley has an "important" turn date for 14/15. I don't follow Bradley other than identifying a trend.

Maybe tomorrow is good day to pull shorts and get back in after 22/07?

Read elsewhere call for $80 oil by 3rd week of July followed by the $60 low first week of July. If they can pull oil back to that level, markets would rally along.

Personally, can't see it happening but I couldn't see the 2nd leg of the rally after April 20th either and missed some opportunity there. This would be 3rd time rally, typical suckers rally.

Oil is not going to 80, best case is a good sized rally to 65-67 and then down IMO.

MK

nomorerollbacks
07-09-2009, 11:00 PM
I Went To Cash At The Close On All Hxd At 18.66. Reversal Candle? Time Too Wait And See For A Few Days. Perhaps Hgu Tomorrow

nomorerollbacks
07-09-2009, 11:22 PM
Trade it for five 1-bedroom condos at Olympic Village and rent it out to city to accomodate the homeless. No matter how bad the economy, Vancouver always finds cash to help the homeless. This is depression fail proof :D

Rolling Stone magazine has a great article on GS and market manipulation. The fraud is going main stream media now. Watch for some GS, PPT, FED and Treasury action to try and divert attention from the issue. They're monitoring the fallout that much is certain.

HOD in/out this morning. When I see buy orders for 100.000 shares at $14.80 and then stock pops open at $15.02, you gotta get a piece of that action.

What's up with AA Alcoa numbers? They had 3 big losses in a row and the new normal is that the losses are less than expected? So AA is up and that lifts the market? Oil breached $60. :eek:

If my business posts 3 major consecutive quarterly losses, I'm sure my shareholders are going to jump into the stock just because the 3rd loss was less than I had anticipated. Because they know I'm all doom & gloom, and then my numbers are better and they will jump for joy. / NOT.

New unemployment stats .. when is the correction coming? :) MSNBC reported actual employment is pushing 20% by 'real world' counting standards. I guess that news slipped through and now the numbers need to SHINE.
I TAUGHT ARCHITECTURAL DRAFTING FOR DECADES. ONE PHOTO BINDER I HAVE IS THE EFFECTS OF CONDENSATION ON A BUILDING. OLYMPIC VILLAGE'S PIPING SYSTEM WAS NOT INSULATED.....GOING TO BE INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT DECADE IF THEY DONT PULL THE BOARD AND INSULATE IT PROPERLY.

GoCanada
07-09-2009, 11:30 PM
Oil is not going to 80, best case is a good sized rally to 65-67 and then down IMO.

MK

Can't see it either. End of year maybe if sell off into summer and rally fall / winter.

texarcana
07-09-2009, 11:48 PM
Appreciate the response.
The USD looks so weak.
we really need everyone's input to improve the accuracy of the price of gold at the turndates....turndate predictions have been phenominal, but a few inverted senerio'ss sure plays havoc with managing portfolio's. I more than realize how difficult it is.
Seems to me that once the commercial real estate gets revealed to be a much bigger problem than what is perceived, that every building, bridge, road, outside of residential homes is part of the commercial real estate sector, condo's, apartments, that whole sector has to be trillions of $ of upcoming problems and when this bankrupts hundreds of regional banks, then this becomes a whole new phase of the crisis. These banking/crdit crisis lasts years, let alone the stark fact that the reserve currency of the world is under dillution by an unprecendented scale, this will cause huge probelms for many many countries.....this whole crisis does not get resolved until the monetary system gets renewed, and might end up with the two tiered system that Armstrong wrote about, but this will not happen without a long and messy callapse of the USD. They will hang on till the end and make others lose first as much as possible.
In the meantime, this bear market rally loks very similar to spring 1930 and should continue for a few years.......grind,grind, grind, and gold stocks probably won't go ballastic, meaning +500% higher, for at least 18 months......I will not be surprised to see the gold bugs index at 5000 within a few years....3-4 years.
what vehicles/etf's are available to short the broad market on the US/AMEX exchanges?

The big question is how severe the deleveraging is going to be.Liquidity
can dry up in an hour.The main cycles are in place where a high can be expected the third week of July and a low on Gann's anniversary for gold August 23 .Since 23 is a Sunday ,it will be the 21st or 24th.The rise of gold, in earnest ,will happen from between the second /third week of November.
September is a toss up.2010 April ,all markets will move,especially the gold and oil stocks .Money will be loosing its value in the inflationary spiral to follow.Residential property prices will bottom in the spring 2010 as well.

texarcana
07-10-2009, 12:06 AM
Seems to me the currency of a country is essentially its stock price, and what is really happening is one very huge margin call. And the margin call through a secular bear grind market is essentially a giant noose for the country that is caught holding the cards long. All the assets disappear, awaiting the return of the bull market of the country.


Appreciate the response.
The USD looks so weak.
we really need everyone's input to improve the accuracy of the price of gold at the turndates....turndate predictions have been phenominal, but a few inverted senerio'ss sure plays havoc with managing portfolio's. I more than realize how difficult it is.
Seems to me that once the commercial real estate gets revealed to be a much bigger problem than what is perceived, that every building, bridge, road, outside of residential homes is part of the commercial real estate sector, condo's, apartments, that whole sector has to be trillions of $ of upcoming problems and when this bankrupts hundreds of regional banks, then this becomes a whole new phase of the crisis. These banking/crdit crisis lasts years, let alone the stark fact that the reserve currency of the world is under dillution by an unprecendented scale, this will cause huge probelms for many many countries.....this whole crisis does not get resolved until the monetary system gets renewed, and might end up with the two tiered system that Armstrong wrote about, but this will not happen without a long and messy callapse of the USD. They will hang on till the end and make others lose first as much as possible.
In the meantime, this bear market rally loks very similar to spring 1930 and should continue for a few years.......grind,grind, grind, and gold stocks probably won't go ballastic, meaning +500% higher, for at least 18 months......I will not be surprised to see the gold bugs index at 5000 within a few years....3-4 years.
what vehicles/etf's are available to short the broad market on the US/AMEX exchanges?

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 12:47 AM
Seems to me the currency of a country is essentially its stock price, and what is really happening is one very huge margin call. And the margin call through a secular bear grind market is essentially a giant noose for the country that is caught holding the cards long. All the assets disappear, awaiting the return of the bull market of the country.

You're making a good point there about long holds. More money from equities will pour into bonds and markets will decline steadily as a result or as a cause! Chicken or egg kinda question. Market bottom probably in 2012 imo.

Please anyone tell me why the IMF is making these growth predictions and now even upward revisions of their previous predictions? Are the punch drunk? Surely they must know the extent of the crisis and yet, here they are going back to growth in late 2009 and 2010. Can there be growth rates in this economy? Based on what? Contraction is just starting if I'm not mistaken.

bullau
07-10-2009, 12:49 AM
"The USD looks so weak."

Yes but remember if a sm meltdown occurs then the USD will rally and rally big.........as ludicrous as it seems there still seems to be an appetite for treasuries but surely can't last indefinitely..........What we all should be aware of is that the sm, oil, gold have all moved together and counter to the USD so if this fall there is a deflationary meltdown than USD is going higher and that will go against all logic and the market loves to do the opposite of what everyone expects.

I think once the USD countertrend rally is over which my guess is early 2010 then our inflationary environment will begin starting with the resumption of the USD bear market and a new bull market in commodities and it will be very powerful...........I completely agree with cyclists thinking about spring 2010 starting a new cycle and oils and gold should do very well.

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 12:56 AM
what vehicles/etf's are available to short the broad market on the US/AMEX exchanges?

www.proshares.com ... take your pick! Study the charts though in terms of decay from leverage.

DOG DOW 30 short could be a good one going forward.

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 12:59 AM
I think once the USD countertrend rally is over which my guess is early 2010 then our inflationary environment will begin starting with the resumption of the USD bear market and a new bull market in commodities and it will be very powerful...........I completely agree with cyclists thinking about spring 2010 starting a new cycle and oils and gold should do very well.

When do you see gold top / dollar bottom? Do you agree that USD will survive - no matter what happens - and have a recovery after?

texarcana
07-10-2009, 01:04 AM
its been said that the natural course is a big erection before death.......might be what happens to the dollar.......the rest of the world isn't stupid, now that the accounting and real numbers are getting disclosed.......I think the rest of the world is gonna keep the us dollar up, as they buy dollar to sell their own currencies to prevent their own currencies to skyrocket and become "uncompetitive".....but this is a setup for the biggest pump and dump the world has ever witnessed....not sure when it happens, but i think it will happen as they will never give up the reserve currency as this must bring about sudden implosion in country stock price...the mother of all, shock and awe short sale .....and I think they believe that this will never happen, just like big Ben said a few years ago, that a deep housing correction would "never happen/impossible".........hyperinflation must be when the bonds get sold in "survival mode", then the money supply really inflates in vengence, and nothing to slow it down. I think this is what Marc Faber sees. All the money comes back to the home system after exporting inflation for so many years, it all does the boom-a-rang thing and bites the US in the butt.
Hell of a world we live in.

"The USD looks so weak."

Yes but remember if a sm meltdown occurs then the USD will rally and rally big.........as ludicrous as it seems there still seems to be an appetite for treasuries but surely can't last indefinitely..........What we all should be aware of is that the sm, oil, gold have all moved together and counter to the USD so if this fall there is a deflationary meltdown than USD is going higher and that will go against all logic and the market loves to do the opposite of what everyone expects.

I think once the USD countertrend rally is over which my guess is early 2010 then our inflationary environment will begin starting with the resumption of the USD bear market and a new bull market in commodities and it will be very powerful...........I completely agree with cyclists thinking about spring 2010 starting a new cycle and oils and gold should do very well.

Nelderand
07-10-2009, 02:10 AM
variety of clues ,volume is becoming more paramount in deciding,next BKX ,
Bonds/USDindex and last my personal liquidity index with different ratios.

Are you saying the ratio of Bonds divided by the USD index, or are you saying each one together as a group? The bonds have turned down before the USD at most junctions.

John T
07-10-2009, 02:29 AM
Please anyone tell me why the IMF is making these growth predictions and now even upward revisions of their previous predictions? Are the punch drunk? Surely they must know the extent of the crisis and yet, here they are going back to growth in late 2009 and 2010. Can there be growth rates in this economy? Based on what? Contraction is just starting if I'm not mistaken.



I agree, the only thing I can think of....... is that smoking crack is not just the exclusive domain of the less fortunate in society. :)

BigAl
07-10-2009, 08:04 AM
Oil is not going to 80, best case is a good sized rally to 65-67 and then down IMO.

MK

Couldn't agree more. Anyone seriously thinking oil is going to 80 by 7/22, please let me know how much you'd like to put on it.

sujithsstorock
07-10-2009, 08:55 AM
:D , hi to all.

hello cyclist. heard a millions of times abt u :) . but this is my 1st post.

i was given this link by a fellow follower of urs.i would like to get comment from all experts here abt a silly chart of mine.

july 10 chart (http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/july10.gif)

june 27th chart about hns (http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/HNS.gif)

june 17th chart. 905 is do-or-die (http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/june17LT.gif)


ps:if modus have any complaint about the chart,pls delete it :o

comexdefault
07-10-2009, 09:22 AM
if you think gold is headed back below 800 you are stoned.

:rolleyes:

Every time gold heads down the net is full of experts that think this is the big collapse. $850 is the best they can do on this leg.

sujithsstorock
07-10-2009, 09:31 AM
if you think gold is headed back below 800 you are stoned.

:rolleyes:

Every time gold heads down the net is full of experts that think this is the big collapse. $850 is the best they can do on this leg.

besides rolling eyes.. put some glasses and read posts properly dear ,like this--> :eek:

its not predicting future. its shows tht i was in sell at 940 itself since june 17th and i expect 905 to hit and then weather 400 $ (i will be here always if u willing to stone me for tht :P ) or back to 1060 $ is coming.

for me next week is decisive, crude is king of market and i am in short side since 69 $. its gold's true bull trend tht have held him ryt above 900 $ mark for so long. else for a fall in crude from 73 $ to 59 $..we got a fall from 940 till 905 in gold... thts bull trend !!. a bull trend always doesnt mean up..it at times means "not to fall" . :p

and morr over am not on any side cos i wont be trading for tht big ones. i am a intra day trader with MT calls at times.all i am saying is..dont try to catch bottom.catch trend n trend will be confirmed only when crude starts moving up..!! till then sell on every rise is the slogan for me.

edit
an additional point::when 980 was thr,net was full on techs(as u said inculding u,if i remember correct) for 1000+ , i still hold ma 1 mini short from 985 $ which had 1005 sl !!! . now i call for 400 $ before 1100 $ in gold and if u would like it..i can flash it on my proffessional site with big bold fonts n well ofcourse reputation to0.. :P

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 09:52 AM
Can we confirm down trend from here?

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 10:01 AM
Consumer sentiment 64.0 ?
OOPS! Couldn't that wait until Monday.... GM emerging from bankruptcy was supposed to make markets pretty today. Imagine that. A government owned car maker declaring they're no longer bankrupt. :p

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 10:27 AM
:D , hi to all.

hello cyclist. heard a millions of times abt u :) . but this is my 1st post.

i was given this link by a fellow follower of urs.i would like to get comment from all experts here abt a silly chart of mine.

july 10 chart (http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/july10.gif)

june 27th chart about hns (http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/HNS.gif)

june 17th chart. 905 is do-or-die (http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/june17LT.gif)


ps:if modus have any complaint about the chart,pls delete it :o


Gold IMO has made its lows as it has bounced from the 900/905
Your charts are good ,one missing the weekly one.Gold will have an impulsive
rise if and when it is going to move.Gold will do its thing in due time.I don't think we are going to break 900 from here.That is my projection for now.

MetalsKing
07-10-2009, 10:41 AM
Gold IMO has made its lows as it has bounced from the 900/905
Your charts are good ,one missing the weekly one.Gold will have an impulsive
rise if and when it is going to move.Gold will do its thing in due time.I don't think we are going to break 900 from here.That is my projection for now.

Agree, I bought a little more this morning near the lows in HGU and GTU and a few others.

MK

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 11:01 AM
Agree, I bought a little more this morning near the lows in HGU and GTU and a few others.

MK

I would be leaning towards the physical HBU.The Yen is on a roll and leading the contraction in liquidity.

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 11:08 AM
I would be leaning towards the physical HBU.The Yen is on a roll and leading the contraction in liquidity.

Libor rate lower as money markets flush with liquidity.

Is that what you're refering to?

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 11:13 AM
Libor rate lower as money markets flush with liquidity.

Is that what you're refering to?

yes but not into stocks or commerce,banks are hoarding cash.
Gold/silver ratio is attesting to a negative sentiment in the markets.

HeavyMeddle
07-10-2009, 11:14 AM
G'morning Cyclist -

I realize your general long-term strategy is cash, AG stocks and gold coins... but am I correct in assuming you are holding smaller positions in a few miners (like MDN) for the extended long-term? Thx in advance for your thoughts on MDN, and for your latest sentiment on gold stocks in general.

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 11:20 AM
G'morning Cyclist -

I realize your general long-term strategy is cash, AG stocks and gold coins... but am I correct in assuming you are holding smaller positions in a few miners (like MDN) for the extended long-term? Thx in advance for your thoughts on MDN, and for your latest sentiment on gold stocks in general.
MDN and ORV ,out of everything else in the metals except goldcoins, cash ,
a few oil/gas stocks PDP/POU/VRO/GTE,and AG stocks VT/AGT.un.

rtsang
07-10-2009, 11:20 AM
Agree, I bought a little more this morning near the lows in HGU and GTU and a few others.

MK

May I ask what have changed you to the bullish side now?

rtsang
07-10-2009, 11:21 AM
I would be leaning towards the physical HBU.The Yen is on a roll and leading the contraction in liquidity.

Can the rise of Yen a sign of bonds collapse?

MetalsKing
07-10-2009, 11:24 AM
May I ask what have changed you to the bullish side now?

It's just my opinion, take it for what it's worth. I mentioned a bought a small trading position the other day.

MK

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 11:29 AM
markets accelerating to the downside,Yen is the strongest when markets getting hit

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 11:39 AM
BKX is falling and could make a fast tumble to 30

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 11:57 AM
markets accelerating to the downside,Yen is the strongest when markets getting hit

Todays action would confirm the dn/dn trend imo.
Is there any chance this can turn into an upswing for next week at this stage?

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 11:59 AM
Todays action would confirm the dn/dn trend imo.
Is there any chance this can turn into an upswing for next week at this stage?

Slimming down half my short position

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 12:11 PM
Slimming down half my short position

Looking at HAU right now. Do grains have an upside short term?

ianian
07-10-2009, 12:12 PM
Gold/silver ratio is attesting to a negative sentiment in the markets.

Are you thinking the g/s ratio is going higher still?

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 12:17 PM
Are you thinking the g/s ratio is going higher still?

yes it will ,deflation makes silver dive.We might see 90 again.
If you took out last month the spread long gold and short silver ,you are doing well,as you would last December a spread long Plat/short gold .

high_stakes
07-10-2009, 12:17 PM
I believe if the shorts can't break $900 gold soon, they have lost. Gold's seasonal strength is right around the corner and the bulls know it.

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 12:18 PM
Looking at HAU right now. Do grains have an upside short term?
I would wait till end of the month

mad mad world
07-10-2009, 12:22 PM
BKX flashed a green light ,we should start moving to our objective

Is green light turn in to amber ( yellow) ?:confused:

Seems like crude keep going down with stock market...

The Golden Rule
07-10-2009, 01:08 PM
I believe if the shorts can't break $900 gold soon, they have lost. Gold's seasonal strength is right around the corner and the bulls know it.

I'd have to agree with this - the majority may be getting sucked in to the 'seasonal' pullback, doldrums, consolidation...what have you.

If a major pullback was a forgone conclusion, or at least a regular occurence, we'd be well below 900 by now, I believe.

What better way to suck in investors and go the path of the 'predictable' summer doldrums, only to make a break when history, charts, experts, the masses etc are all expecting a downturn?

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 01:20 PM
out of my other half short position

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 01:47 PM
out of my other half short position

40/60 - short/cash.
Locked in some very decent profits this week.

SpiderMan
07-10-2009, 02:41 PM
out of my other half short position

still expecting a rally within 2 weeks?

thanks!;)

comexdefault
07-10-2009, 02:46 PM
opinion on deflation and gold. Since deflation occurs about as often as "w" ever said anything intelligent, which is to say never, then how is it that everyone is so sure gold goes down during deflation?

In a deflation, illiquidity becomes insolvency. Therefore the biggest risk is always, always the solvency of a counter-party. Gold has no counter-party risk. Corporate bonds do and to some extent sovereign entities as well (see Iceland, Ecuador, etc.) While the demand for things with counter-party risk should fall dramatically, I find it positively illogical that gold should fall in a deflationary event.;)

BigAl
07-10-2009, 02:48 PM
Medvedev Shows Off Sample Coin of New ‘World Currency’ at G-8
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Lyubov Pronina

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev illustrated his call for a supranational currency to replace the dollar by pulling from his pocket a sample coin of a “united future world currency.”

“Here it is,” Medvedev told reporters today in L’Aquila, Italy, after a summit of the Group of Eight nations. “You can see it and touch it.”

The coin, which bears the words “unity in diversity,” was minted in Belgium and presented to the heads of G-8 delegations, Medvedev said.

The question of a supranational currency “concerns everyone now, even the mints,” Medvedev said. The test coin “means they’re getting ready. I think it’s a good sign that we understand how interdependent we are.”

Medvedev has repeatedly called for creating a mix of regional reserve currencies as part of the drive to address the global financial crisis, while questioning the U.S. dollar’s future as a global reserve currency. Russia’s proposals for the G-20 meeting in London in April included the creation of a supranational currency.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lyubov Pronina in L’Aquila, Italy at lpronina@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 10, 2009 10:23 EDT

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 03:00 PM
opinion on deflation and gold. Since deflation occurs about as often as "w" ever said anything intelligent, which is to say never, then how is it that everyone is so sure gold goes down during deflation?

In a deflation, illiquidity becomes insolvency. Therefore the biggest risk is always, always the solvency of a counter-party. Gold has no counter-party risk. Corporate bonds do and to some extent sovereign entities as well (see Iceland, Ecuador, etc.) While the demand for things with counter-party risk should fall dramatically, I find it positively illogical that gold should fall in a deflationary event.;)

True but look at your gold stocks they are a hybrid.Presently we are getting close to a drop in the goldstocks versus gold.Take a look at your weekly
Xau/ gold ratio and especially the MACD is telling you the story of illiquidity.

greenbeard
07-10-2009, 03:30 PM
Gold stocks are still 50% off from highs that they reached when gold was only $80 higher from here. How much cheaper can gold stocks get?

True but look at your gold stocks they are a hybrid.Presently we are getting close to a drop in the goldstocks versus gold.Take a look at your weekly
Xau/ gold ratio and especially the MACD is telling you the story of illiquidity.

MetalsKing
07-10-2009, 03:31 PM
Trading too crappy for me, sold small gold positions for breakeven and went home 100% cash, no positions. I have no reason in my work to take any risk here, will have a nice relaxing weekend.

MK

MetalsKing
07-10-2009, 03:38 PM
Gold stocks are still 50% off from highs that they reached when gold was only $80 higher from here. How much cheaper can gold stocks get?

another 20% or more easily if Dow goes below March low and another big deflation tsunami hits.

MK

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 03:39 PM
Gold stocks are still 50% off from highs that they reached when gold was only $80 higher from here. How much cheaper can gold stocks get?

they will get a lot more cheaper relative to gold when chaos permeates the market.

Fresnel
07-10-2009, 03:39 PM
Looking at HAU right now. Do grains have an upside short term?

Watch HAU. They're planning to change to tracking a broader agribusiness index rather than grains.

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 03:41 PM
still expecting a rally within 2 weeks?

thanks!;)

Another week of earnings has markets trending more negatively imo. I don't see any uptrend until 07/16. Even that will be a short term up followed by more down.

Oil go sideways for a bit but more downward potential as recovery becomes doubtful. This looks like a repeat of '08 when hopeful buyers of stocks thought there was a good deal. I've been caught last year July / August trying to bottom fish and lost. All this looks eerily familiar.

Run into bonds, exit from stocks.
Strong dollar and yen.

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 03:43 PM
Watch HAU. They're planning to change to tracking a broader agribusiness index rather than grains.

I rather sit with AGT.un and VT,have been since beginning of May.
HAU will go lower yet with this change.

sujithsstorock
07-10-2009, 03:49 PM
Gold IMO has made its lows as it has bounced from the 900/905
Your charts are good ,one missing the weekly one.Gold will have an impulsive
rise if and when it is going to move.Gold will do its thing in due time.I don't think we are going to break 900 from here.That is my projection for now.

http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/goldweeklyjuly10.gif

weekly chart.

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 03:53 PM
I rather sit with AGT.un and VT,have been since beginning of May.
HAU will go lower yet with this change.

When do they plan this change for HAU?
Come next Spring and rising inflation, I would see this one as a major winner.

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 03:53 PM
Another week of earnings has markets trending more negatively imo. I don't see any uptrend until 07/16. Even that will be a short term up followed by more down.

Oil go sideways for a bit but more downward potential as recovery becomes doubtful. This looks like a repeat of '08 when hopeful buyers of stocks thought there was a good deal. I've been caught last year July / August trying to bottom fish and lost. All this looks eerily familiar.

Run into bonds, exit from stocks.
Strong dollar and yen.

There is one rally in the cards and that could be a good one for the second
third week of July.After ,excellent time to short

rw81gold
07-10-2009, 03:55 PM
If I could ask, anyone, .....what will the down direction in gold do to financials next week.? I think there is earnings.....reports....? (albeit made-up numbers)

comexdefault
07-10-2009, 03:59 PM
True but look at your gold stocks they are a hybrid.Presently we are getting close to a drop in the goldstocks versus gold.Take a look at your weekly
Xau/ gold ratio and especially the MACD is telling you the story of illiquidity.

but mining gold is like any other business. Gold in hand is much like that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.

Then again gold stocks are about the most poorly managed companies I have ever seen.:rolleyes:

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 04:04 PM
but mining gold is like any other business. Gold in hand is much like that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.

Then again gold stocks are about the most poorly managed companies I have ever seen.:rolleyes:

In this industry many have poor management abilities,the majority sees it as their personal ATM machine.

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 04:09 PM
There is one rally in the cards and that could be a good one for the second
third week of July.After ,excellent time to short

TSX opened about 130 points down. Rallied up 100 points, followed by decline 140 points, rallied back up and ended the day 20 points down. DJI had similar see saw action.

What do we make of this?

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 04:16 PM
TSX opened about 130 points down. Rallied up 100 points, followed by decline 140 points, rallied back up and ended the day 20 points down. DJI had similar see saw action.

What do we make of this?

All this volatility within a certain range will give a breakout ,either up or down.
BKX ,its pivot sits at 34.20.Anything below is a sell or above is a buy

Cyclist
07-10-2009, 04:18 PM
http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/goldweeklyjuly10.gif

weekly chart.



unable to download the chart

GoCanada
07-10-2009, 05:09 PM
All this volatility within a certain range will give a breakout ,either up or down.
BKX ,its pivot sits at 34.20.Anything below is a sell or above is a buy

CIT faces liquidity issues. Needs govt backing for bonds.
First in a sequel to the banking crash of '08?

Chas1
07-10-2009, 10:01 PM
Everyone has liquidity issues. Its not how illiquid you are that matters, it who you owe the money to that counts. I guess GS isn't in that deep with these guys so they aren't to big to fail.

hsingh
07-11-2009, 12:36 AM
Everyone has liquidity issues. Its not how illiquid you are that matters, it who you owe the money to that counts. I guess GS isn't in that deep with these guys so they aren't to big to fail.

Cyclist,

while g/s ratio is expected by you to get bigger, do you expect silver to fall from these levels or rise slower than gold.

Thanks.

manias
07-11-2009, 12:39 AM
Cyclist,

while g/s ratio is expected by you to get bigger, do you expect silver to fall from these levels or rise slower than gold.

Thanks.

I for one hope Silver continues to do well as I loaded up at the 9 buck range last time.
When it hit 16 recently I was all smiles.
But I do hold it for the future as a fractional alternative to gold.....You never know it may become a good barter/purchase tool.

bullau
07-11-2009, 02:32 AM
usd index chart july 10th
http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/july10-1.gif

usd index july5th chart (http://i460.photobucket.com/albums/qq326/sujithsstorock/july5.gif)

Thanks for the chart sujith......I've been watching the USD very closely as it is the key.........You can clearly see that this latest down move in USD is going to be a 5 wave pattern......no doubt about it and we are currently near the end of the 4th wave imo so we should get one more drop in the USD to complete the 5th wave which should coincide with one more sucker rally in the sm and commodities........looks like it could happen very soon as this 4th wave is long in the tooth.........This imo will complete larger wave B of an ABC pattern and the USD will resume upwards to finish larger wave C up to around 95 or thereabouts........that is my prediction and so far it looks pretty sound........Of course I could be totally off the mark but it looks good on paper.........This also should coincide with a stock market meltdown and deflation again this fall/winter.........That will be the end of the USD countertrend rally and the long term bear will resume and possibly the beginning of the USD funeral............and gold's glory will finally be revealed for all to see........hahahahaha

GoCanada
07-11-2009, 01:35 PM
Everyone has liquidity issues. Its not how illiquid you are that matters, it who you owe the money to that counts. I guess GS isn't in that deep with these guys so they aren't to big to fail.

Correct. The verdict on CIT is a verdict on all commercial lenders in the same position. Trend from here is clear and bullau's predictions are good. I expect next week to resume downward with new lows before the start of the 'suckers' rally around 15/16.

rodin
07-11-2009, 02:41 PM
Thanks for the chart sujith......I've been watching the USD very closely as it is the key.........You can clearly see that this latest down move in USD is going to be a 5 wave pattern......no doubt about it and we are currently near the end of the 4th wave imo so we should get one more drop in the USD to complete the 5th wave which should coincide with one more sucker rally in the sm and commodities........looks like it could happen very soon as this 4th wave is long in the tooth.........This imo will complete larger wave B of an ABC pattern and the USD will resume upwards to finish larger wave C up to around 95 or thereabouts........that is my prediction and so far it looks pretty sound........Of course I could be totally off the mark but it looks good on paper.........This also should coincide with a stock market meltdown and deflation again this fall/winter.........That will be the end of the USD countertrend rally and the long term bear will resume and possibly the beginning of the USD funeral............and gold's glory will finally be revealed for all to see........hahahahaha

Yes we have been waiting out this USDX wave 4 which should not cross 1

Plus lots of charts need a 5 up including this leading (trend and leverage wise) UK SM Index

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachments/metals/60312d1247219270-gold-calls-long-term-medium-term-intraday-calls-gold-here-message.png

Aged USD Chart

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachments/metals/58696d1244809433-gold-calls-long-term-medium-term-intraday-calls-gold-here-dollar.png

John T
07-11-2009, 06:17 PM
Yes we have been waiting out this USDX wave 4 which should not cross 1

Plus lots of charts need a 5 up including this leading (trend and leverage wise) UK SM Index



Great Chart Rodin, thanks. J

nmgoldhunter
07-12-2009, 07:07 PM
Correct. The verdict on CIT is a verdict on all commercial lenders in the same position. Trend from here is clear and bullau's predictions are good. I expect next week to resume downward with new lows before the start of the 'suckers' rally around 15/16.

CIT going down...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHOrbEKeCVzk

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 10:20 AM
Initial small tranche of UNG just bought at 12.03, this is total bottom fishing FWIW.

MK

Cyclist
07-13-2009, 10:27 AM
Initial small tranche of UNG just bought at 12.03, this is total bottom fishing FWIW.

MK

COT for NG is starting to become positive ,not for crude.

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 10:31 AM
COT for NG is starting to become positive ,not for crude.

The long term NG/Crude ratio tells me to buy Nat gas and not crude, near historic long term lows. Bought a little HNU near 4.00 as well.

MK

bullau
07-13-2009, 10:40 AM
The long term NG/Crude ratio tells me to buy Nat gas and not crude, near historic long term lows. Bought a little HNU near 4.00 as well.

MK

You are braver than me you two........I hear you about the Oil/NG ratio between extreme but I still don't see a clear bottom or positive technicals on NG....yet.

Do you guys trade UNG often........I have heard from many professional traders on other sites that UNG is one of the worst trading vehicles as it quite often does its own thing and doesn't follow technicals......That is all I heard as I haven't traded it as of yet but am leary.

I have been watching HNU.TO for awhile now and am tempted to buy some.

Oil I think is going to put in a short term bottom here soon either today or tomorrow.

Cyclist
07-13-2009, 10:41 AM
Gold stocks are not the place to be until October.Looking at the Hui/gold and the XAU/gold ratios the MACD flashing a strong sell.The stockmarket will go likewise.Just be aware

GoCanada
07-13-2009, 10:42 AM
The long term NG/Crude ratio tells me to buy Nat gas and not crude, near historic long term lows. Bought a little HNU near 4.00 as well.

MK

NG is telling the true story about this economy.
It will rise this year but probably not a whole lot.

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 10:48 AM
NG is telling the true story about this economy.
It will rise this year but probably not a whole lot.

Just a trade for me, seasonality often indicates a July bottom and then a retest 2-3 months down the road FWIW.

MK

HeavyMeddle
07-13-2009, 11:15 AM
Gold stocks are not the place to be until October.Looking at the Hui/gold and the XAU/gold ratios the MACD flashing a strong sell.The stockmarket will go likewise.Just be aware

I'm long several gold/silver miners i.e. UXG, NXG, AXU, MDN, HL (scaled these positions back 50% a few weeks ago at the highs).... Cyclist, are you suggesting that the HUI will be at near-firesale prices in Sept/Oct? Is it not worth holding on to some shares of miners through to October? or will it just be a worthless academic exercise (i.e., buy 'em all back much cheaper from these levels)... FWIW I'm in these stocks for the long haul.

Bellove
07-13-2009, 11:33 AM
Everybody listening to so someones elses advise - and not to respect the charts is going to loose in this business. Just a matter of time.
Nothing else to be said.

In other words: if there are 100 or 200 out there listening to Cyclist or MK or Kingofgold or whom ever - and they don't respect the charts - ALL those 100 or 200 are going to loose their account.

It's that simple.

yes I agree. SO I will follow the indicators and charts while I listen to the experts here. :D :D

GoCanada
07-13-2009, 11:38 AM
Exited all remaining short positions on TSX this morning.

When some bimbo analyst upgrades GS, you know the suckers rally has started.

Futures last night showed DJI -60 fyi.

AGoldhamster
07-13-2009, 11:46 AM
Exited all remaining short positions on TSX this morning.

When some bimbo analyst upgrades GS, you know the suckers rally has started.

Futures last night showed DJI -60 fyi.
See comments in my thread - this rally started already this morning early in europe ... da DAX is up appr. 220 pts since that time.
Translate: this suckers rally is one of the strongest moves i remember since quite some time.

greenbeard
07-13-2009, 11:57 AM
No doubt. Summer doldrums plus oversold conditions=another pop. Don't know anyone who would be short here.

See comments in my thread - this rally started already this morning early in europe ... da DAX is up appr. 220 pts since that time.
Translate: this suckers rally is one of the strongest moves i remember since quite some time.

bullau
07-13-2009, 12:08 PM
No doubt. Summer doldrums plus oversold conditions=another pop. Don't know anyone who would be short here.

I am still short.........I think we have one more wave of selling left at the very least before the sucker rally........If you look at the SPX we are now testing the broken neckline of the H&S pattern that everyone sees..........Classic kiss of death before we head down further.........I don't see any positive divergence on 60 min SPX at all yet.........too early to be long imo........we shall see.

rodin
07-13-2009, 12:21 PM
Great Chart Rodin, thanks. J

yr welcome

Updated. Sujith's USDX chart is saying same really

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachments/metals/60392d1247487264-gold-calls-long-term-medium-term-intraday-calls-gold-here-usdx-july.png

Vangruv
07-13-2009, 12:48 PM
Sorry to hear of your loss but I feel it is probably more a disappointment over a few ounces
On 7-5 when you supposedly went heavy the price was what 925/oz? Today is what 910/oz?
Tens of thousands lost?
What did you invest millions based on internet advice?
Please find another bridge to sit under.............Ploink

I think you have exposed an untruth. To lose tens of thousands (lets say $30,000) on a $15 drop requires 2000 ounces or a $1.8 million purchase. I guess he could have bought a 3X ETF which would still be $600,000.00. I'm not buying it.

GoCanada
07-13-2009, 12:50 PM
See comments in my thread - this rally started already this morning early in europe ... da DAX is up appr. 220 pts since that time.
Translate: this suckers rally is one of the strongest moves i remember since quite some time.

Check HMD buy orders @6.35.

rtsang
07-13-2009, 01:08 PM
I am still short.........I think we have one more wave of selling left at the very least before the sucker rally........If you look at the SPX we are now testing the broken neckline of the H&S pattern that everyone sees..........Classic kiss of death before we head down further.........I don't see any positive divergence on 60 min SPX at all yet.........too early to be long imo........we shall see.

Agree! I am still sitting tight with my shorts. I think this down trend at least last until early August. The longer this market turns, the down trend will be more obvious and accelerated.

rtsang
07-13-2009, 01:09 PM
I think you have exposed an untruth. To lose tens of thousands (lets say $30,000) on a $15 drop requires 2000 ounces or a $1.8 million purchase. I guess he could have bought a 3X ETF which would still be $600,000.00. I'm not buying it.

He could have bought tons of option calls expiring this month.

rtsang
07-13-2009, 02:14 PM
And don't expect you get rich in one single win, this is same as you going to Vegas. You need to battle all the way up, so watch out for your troops and limit number of their death and prepare to win for the next battle.

Cyclist
07-13-2009, 02:40 PM
General markets should make a run coinciding with a low in the USD July 23.
HTD should make a nice jump until the 23rd.Liquidity is still sparse and will get worse time progressing .With CIT's bankruptcy ,it will cause a quite few small businesses to go belly up.Financing will become harder to get for medium sized corporations as well.Gold stocks are behaving poorly as the ratio ,mentioned yesterday, is diving deeper sub zero.Physical is the thing to have in your hands and the premiums will get steeper.

Cyclist
07-13-2009, 02:50 PM
Gold is at the entrance of a powerful move to new highs as of Monday.
This move will last two weeks.All IMO.:cool:

As implied ,gold is at the entrance ,two weeks is a long time for gold .
When the run starts ,it will be a burst for three days,don't expect it to have staying power at the found heights.Always sell into the rallies and keep proper money management.Yes ,still in PDP,GTE,VRO,and POU,ORV,and MDN
Only short in the bonds for now and picked up some SRS at 21.50 as well.

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 02:53 PM
As implied ,gold is at the entrance ,two weeks is a long time for gold .
When the run starts ,it will be a burst for three days,don't expect it to have staying power at the found heights.Always sell into the rallies and keep proper money management.Yes ,still in PDP,GTE,VRO,and POU,ORV,and MDN
Only short in the bonds for now and picked up some SRS at 21.50 as well.

Gold's rally will only be a retracement of June's decline IMO, nothing to get excited about.

MK

GoCanada
07-13-2009, 02:53 PM
These are markets run, not by fundamentals or even technical charts. These are markets led by ponzi scheme tactics that come out of the woodwork when playing legitimately simply doesnt cut it anymore for the big boys. The well is dry and so calls to more drastic measures are called for.

I wondered lately if there was ever a time where the markets were not manipulated. Even manipulation has a cycle...

exectech
07-13-2009, 02:55 PM
Charts don't listen to meredith. At least not now. :rolleyes:

This is a rally based on technicals.
And my "count" and my guts say it is an exceptionally strong one.
Could be wrong of course - so DYOD!

-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o- edit

07:50: DOW 840x will show whether it has legs!

07:54: and DAX appr. 480x ... a coincidence those digits?

Exactly, 'news' was known last week
G turn was today

Bluebonnet
07-13-2009, 03:03 PM
As implied ,gold is at the entrance ,two weeks is a long time for gold .
When the run starts ,it will be a burst for three days,don't expect it to have staying power at the found heights.Always sell into the rallies and keep proper money management.Yes ,still in PDP,GTE,VRO,and POU,ORV,and MDN
Only short in the bonds for now and picked up some SRS at 21.50 as well.

Thanks, Cyclist. Appreciate the update and information. :cool:

Cyclist
07-13-2009, 03:05 PM
Gold's rally will only be a retracement of June's decline IMO, nothing to get excited about.

MK

I don't know whether it is going to be a retracement or not.The markets are so volatile ,anything can happen to gold as well in these days,that what makes a market .With liquidity still being tight, some consolidation is going on in the Yen and the BKX .It is the latter that is giving a positive spin at the moment.

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 03:08 PM
I don't know whether it is going to be a retracement or not.The markets are so volatile ,anything can happen to gold as well in these days,that what makes a market .With liquidity still being tight, some consolidation is going on in the Yen and the BKX .It is the latter that is giving a positive spin at the moment.

I of course don't "know", no one does, but I can say it with a lot of conviction FWIW.

MK

SpiderMan
07-13-2009, 03:09 PM
Exactly, 'news' was known last week
G turn was today

What does trhe G stand for?
a turndate? what is the next one?

thanks!:)

GoCanada
07-13-2009, 03:09 PM
Exactly, 'news' was known last week
G turn was today

DJI Futures last night at 1am PST were -60.

Give me a good reason why DAX rallies when Asian markets were bleeding.

Check HNU sell volume... There aren't enough buyers to fill the sell requests.

I'm buying inverse this week if trend goes higher.
If turn date up came a week early, the top may be in on the 16th and not the 3rd week of July.

Treading very cautious here.

Bluebonnet
07-13-2009, 03:10 PM
Just a general question - going into Fall, would it be better to convert USD to CAD?

AGoldhamster
07-13-2009, 03:10 PM
GS is in line to profit from any cap-and-trade scheme that may come. If Senate doesn't pass cap-and-trade, the profit outlook for GS is substantially lower.

The rest of the country will not benefit from cap-and-trade machinations.

Imagine the world trading their carbon 'emissions' through a program controlled by GS. It's worth trillions of dollars.

Based on that, I'm issuing a very strong BUY recommendation for GS today.
Buy, buy, buy hundreds if not thousands of GS shares and get rich! :D ;) :p
no joke - and i'm actually bottom fishing GS 2011 penny puts ... though not only GS ;)

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 03:13 PM
I don't know whether it is going to be a retracement or not.The markets are so volatile ,anything can happen to gold as well in these days,that what makes a market .With liquidity still being tight, some consolidation is going on in the Yen and the BKX .It is the latter that is giving a positive spin at the moment.

Here is another conviction prediction, dollar index falls to 78 plus or minus a little and then rallies the rest of summer back to 82.50 t0 84.00.

MK

Bluebonnet
07-13-2009, 03:15 PM
Here is another conviction prediction, dollar index falls to 78 plus or minus a little and then rallies the rest of summer back to 82.50 t0 84.00.

MK

Thanks, MK - Do you have an estimated timeline for the decline to 78?

AGoldhamster
07-13-2009, 03:18 PM
Give me a good reason why DAX rallies when Asian markets were bleeding ...

To take advantage of the swings in between the session is even a business!
Works almost like clockwork.

Cyclist
07-13-2009, 03:18 PM
Just a general question - going into Fall, would it be better to convert USD to CAD?

Convert CAD to USD in the fourth week of this month,keep until August 15.
Easily being done with US dollar account to buy FX etfs

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 03:19 PM
Thanks, MK - Do you have an estimated timeline for the decline to 78?

right away or I am wrong.

MK

HeavyMeddle
07-13-2009, 03:25 PM
As implied ,gold is at the entrance ,two weeks is a long time for gold .
When the run starts ,it will be a burst for three days,don't expect it to have staying power at the found heights.Always sell into the rallies and keep proper money management.Yes ,still in PDP,GTE,VRO,and POU,ORV,and MDN
Only short in the bonds for now and picked up some SRS at 21.50 as well.

Thank you sir - and thanks for the GTE/MDN recos... MDN, specifically, seems to be one to hold through the upcoming storm - but i'll make that call next week.

Bluebonnet
07-13-2009, 03:26 PM
Convert CAD to USD in the fourth week of this month,keep until August 15.
Easily being done with US dollar account to buy FX etfs


Thanks, Cyclist. :cool:

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 03:29 PM
Apparently this needs to be said again. Due your own DUE DILIGENCE, anyone who makes a prediction here is just giving an OPINION, and ALL of us will have many wrong opinions. If you are not experienced to make your own decisions then stay out of the markets, do NOT follow anyone blindly, you don't know how they trade and how much they are risking. This is only COMMON SENSE but it needs to be repeated often I guess.

MK

macrohard
07-13-2009, 03:36 PM
Gold has been correlating with the general markets lately while the $ had inverse relationship. If stock market bounce continues $ will decline

AGoldhamster
07-13-2009, 03:37 PM
Anybody ... MS earnings - at which day of this week?

These are todays earnings: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20090713.html

NVLS, chiüp maker, among the important i think

Cyclist
07-13-2009, 03:39 PM
Thank you sir - and thanks for the GTE/MDN recos... MDN, specifically, seems to be one to hold through the upcoming storm - but i'll make that call next week.

When Co's are in a cash position in a deflationary environment,good deals will come out to seek them.In an inflationary environment cash will chase the unprofitable deals.
GTE and PDP are on the threshold to have major finds,MDN and ORV are in a surplus cash position.You can hedge the positions.

AGoldhamster
07-13-2009, 03:40 PM
Funny how timely they placed the FAZ reverse sp(l)it ... funny if you went long FAS then :) :rolleyes:

locklie
07-13-2009, 03:49 PM
Apparently this needs to be said again. Due your own DUE DILIGENCE, anyone who makes a prediction here is just giving an OPINION, and ALL of us will have many wrong opinions. If you are not experienced to make your own decisions then stay out of the markets, do NOT follow anyone blindly, you don't know how they trade and how much they are risking. This is only COMMON SENSE but it needs to be repeated often I guess.

MK

MK, it is frustrating to read this kind of garbage but unfortunately it crops up from time to time. In this case I think it is bunch of you know what. If I am wrong then so be it.
I am here because there is some sensible information, (yours included) that is only part of my and I hope, anyone's decision!
A disruptive post.
Now, where are we? In all this excitement I kinda lost track.
Gold looks tough and hanging in.
Silver looks like a nasty and brief up move before $11.

GoCanada
07-13-2009, 03:54 PM
Funny how timely they placed the FAZ reverse sp(l)it ... funny if you went long FAS then :) :rolleyes:

Tomorrow's retail numbers are gross. Outlook for unemployment getting worse.

Money should flow from equities into treasuries.

HSD might be a good overnight hold?

AGoldhamster
07-13-2009, 03:59 PM
Tomorrow's retail numbers are gross. Outlook for unemployment getting worse.

Money should flow from equities into treasuries.

HSD might be a good overnight hold?
the way it looks actually i think equities might go higher over this week - at least a test of 840x is in the cards imho - hence TNX good chance to go higher, as well as yen-crosses.

DAX need desperately a retracement imho - think asia might provide that. Except we gap higher after markets.
News imho not important here ... again technical rally, but we need a retracement.
HUI closed at intraday highs. Good chance for higher PM stocks tomorrow too.

Re indices ... possibly a retracement in asia and into the earlier part of europe - later in europe good chance to go higher again.
But this is a wild guess.

Harmonica
07-13-2009, 04:13 PM
"Tomorrow's retail numbers are gross. Outlook for unemployment getting worse."

Careful with that ....."the con is on"

"In addition, layoffs in the auto industry caused by the temporary shutdowns at GM and Chrysler facilities boosted unemployment claims this spring but are actually lowering them now, as workers who would normally have filed initial claims for benefits over the summer filed them earlier. This pushed initial claims below 600,000 for the first time in 23 weeks last week and this should be extended into this week"

http://www.financial-planning.com/news/looking-ahead-financial-planning-july-13-2663268-1.html

Cheers

GoCanada
07-13-2009, 04:22 PM
"Tomorrow's retail numbers are gross. Outlook for unemployment getting worse."

Careful with that ....."the con is on"

"In addition, layoffs in the auto industry caused by the temporary shutdowns at GM and Chrysler facilities boosted unemployment claims this spring but are actually lowering them now, as workers who would normally have filed initial claims for benefits over the summer filed them earlier. This pushed initial claims below 600,000 for the first time in 23 weeks last week and this should be extended into this week"

http://www.financial-planning.com/news/looking-ahead-financial-planning-july-13-2663268-1.html

Cheers

thanks, I have learned not to trade on fundamentals or 'news' anymore.
"could have been worse" is the new normal, I get that.
what I do know is that allot of money is going down the crapper soon.
nervous nellies are not getting fleeced again or so they think.

manias
07-13-2009, 05:05 PM
Gold looks tough and hanging in.
Silver looks like a nasty and brief up move before $11.

Not to go OT but would be interested in hearing your premise for Silver going to 11

goldoption
07-13-2009, 05:28 PM
Spot Gold has now risen above $920 and has clearly broken its downtrend of the last two weeks. Today's reversal has confirmed my $905 forecast target low of last week. Expect short term rally to follow. Gold mining indexes are also making sharp key reversals off new lows today. Entered GDX call option position.

MetalsKing
07-13-2009, 05:58 PM
Not to go OT but would be interested in hearing your premise for Silver going to 11

He's about right, I have 11.40, so relax.

MK

1TDI4Me
07-13-2009, 07:22 PM
Could you please elaborate? I would genuinely like to understand the factors taking it that low.

He's about right, I have 11.40, so relax.

MK