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clayson
02-12-2008, 01:50 PM
Are you keeping any of ORV, AUN, MAI, IPT during coming month ? thanks

Cyclist
02-12-2008, 01:59 PM
Are you keeping any of ORV, AUN, MAI, IPT during coming month ? thanks

Yes I'm intending to keep them ORV,AUN and IPT and buy HGD .

Cyclist
02-12-2008, 02:00 PM
yupp, me too!! 17.25 was a good choice!
thanks for your advice!! got myself a few new krugs with this trade ;)

what a trade! 12 to 17.25 in a few days ;)
starting to average into SRS with the cash now..
sadly my first buy order was not hit yet (108).. but actually I'm hoping for a 101 entry point within this week.. maybe to greedy..

yes this is wild stock lots of stroke ,did exceedingly well.

Latviski
02-12-2008, 02:11 PM
HERO was also a great trade last few days. low 20's to 26. :cool:
I'm almost entirely cash again, waiting for re-entry into SDS.

Gold Bouillon
02-12-2008, 02:20 PM
Cyclist:

Did the 14th start early?

Wards_Back
02-12-2008, 02:32 PM
Cyclist,

What's your current take on FXI after making a quadruple bottom over the last week with the Yen at 93?

Decoupling rally to begin in China?

Cyclist
02-12-2008, 02:33 PM
Cyclist:

Did the 14th start early?
bell curves sometimes define the timing of exit loosely.It helps to have hourly cycles .
Still with the believe of past patterns that we see a two day push.
Best way is to short the rallies as mentioned before.

Cyclist
02-12-2008, 02:37 PM
Cyclist,

What's your current take on FXI after making a quadruple bottom over the last week with the Yen at 93?

Decoupling rally to begin in China?

S&P bounced off the 1320 and the FXI dito.If we break the 1320 the whole house of cards ,technically speaking,will fall apart on a global scale.
ECB is unwilling to drop their rates and is sporting with deflation.
That means we could see a stockmarket collapse unparalelled in history

Cyclist
02-12-2008, 02:37 PM
HERO was also a great trade last few days. low 20's to 26. :cool:
I'm almost entirely cash again, waiting for re-entry into SDS.


It is now short the rallies time

Wards_Back
02-12-2008, 02:42 PM
It is now short the rallies time

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I took your advice a little early and took profits yesterday. I too am mostly in cash (and physical) waiting for the next 'thing.'

sceptic
02-12-2008, 02:43 PM
It is now short the rallies time

What are you prefered shorts here?

What about the miners? Can we short them also?

Cyclist
02-12-2008, 02:55 PM
What are you prefered shorts here?

What about the miners? Can we short them also?

I like HGD the senior miners or HXD and HFD.All rallies will last at tyhe max 2 days an will bite the dust.
The HUI/Gold ratio is inching down wards, .475 at the moment

beltlinech
02-12-2008, 03:01 PM
Cyclist:

Would you buy physical gold and silver? If so, when do the charts show the nearest low point? Is now a good time?

Cyclist
02-12-2008, 03:37 PM
we are going down sharply

andrewtyr
02-12-2008, 03:58 PM
what's your take for POG at the moment?

clayson
02-12-2008, 04:03 PM
we are going down sharply

where do you see HUI's low during this period ? thanks

Cyclist
02-12-2008, 04:07 PM
where do you see HUI's low during this period ? thanks

Hui needs to hold 410 ,to keep the uptrend alive

sceptic
02-12-2008, 04:11 PM
USD going down and Gold going down :(

I don't get it...

They really want us to invest in CDO, SIV or what?

IMG is looking awful :eek:

What's your take on this one Cyclist, did you get rid on it?

I am holding but really pissed... It trades like CDE which is not a good thing imho.

clayson
02-12-2008, 04:20 PM
Hui needs to hold 410 ,to keep the uptrend alive

i am holding gold and gold stocks, not hedging them
i have SKF and RSW to cover
the whole idea is for Gold and gold stocks to decouple and rally in the crisis unfolding, there is heavy hedge fund buying as well, i will hold

Bruce7Trader
02-12-2008, 04:25 PM
USD going down and Gold going down :(

I don't get it...

They really want us to invest in CDO, SIV or what?

IMG is looking awful :eek:

What's your take on this one Cyclist, did you get rid on it?

I am holding but really pissed... It trades like CDE which is not a good thing imho.

Sceptic Hope you are doing ok but the prices are getting better here. I added 8,000 IMG at 7.16 very clean and easy buy end of the day. Most of the miners are down today. I see some of the small caps are ok today and some uranium as well. My PNP is looking good as well. Tomorrow is one more day.

They pulled gold down into the low. Sceptic they want your shares and they are putting a squeeze on now.

Bruce970gold

sceptic
02-12-2008, 04:30 PM
Sceptic Hope you are doing ok but the prices are getting better here. I added 8,000 IMG at 7.16 very clean and easy buy end of the day. Most of the miners are down today. I see some of the small caps are ok today and some uranium as well. My PNP is looking good as well. Tomorrow is one more day.

They pulled gold down into the low. Sceptic they want your shares and they are putting a squeeze on now.

Bruce970gold

I don't take losses on gold or goldstocks so I will wait for it to come back in green ink in my portfolio but then I will sell it so they will never get my money again.

There are MUCH better opportunities in the PM miners market than this dog so why wasting time here?

Blackv35
02-13-2008, 01:20 AM
I like HGD the senior miners or HXD and HFD.All rallies will last at tyhe max 2 days an will bite the dust.
The HUI/Gold ratio is inching down wards, .475 at the moment

What would be the best vehicle for shorting the main markets? SKF, SDS, and SRS are looking appealing :cool: . You also mentioned a credit crunch. What would be the main driver for this (the yen or a possible rise in bond yields)? If this is the case I'll most likely be looking at SRS. It amazes me to see the long bond trading (although it looks overcrowded and toppish) where it is right now with $900+ gold, $90+ oil, and $10+ wheat. I guess the destruction of the main markets is lowering the cost of borrowing for everyone :rolleyes: .


You guys have a nice site :cool: .

Touch
02-13-2008, 02:19 AM
What would be the best vehicle for shorting the main markets? SKF, SDS, and SRS are looking appealing :cool: . You also mentioned a credit crunch. What would be the main driver for this (the yen or a possible rise in bond yields)? If this is the case I'll most likely be looking at SRS. It amazes me to see the long bond trading (although it looks overcrowded and toppish) where it is right now with $900+ gold, $90+ oil, and $10+ wheat. I guess the destruction of the main markets is lowering the cost of borrowing for everyone :rolleyes: .


You guys have a nice site :cool: .

"for everyone" or from everyone?!
Thanks Blackv35!!

Blackv35
02-13-2008, 02:22 AM
"for everyone" or from everyone?!
Thanks Blackv35!!

"for everyone"

lowcommotion
02-13-2008, 03:51 AM
we are going down sharply

Yesterday you said hold onto your physical. Are you saying that
is changed now. Just wonder if I should lighten up on my
physical. In other words do you think we might correct
to under $16.50 POS?

Lord Lister
02-13-2008, 05:32 AM
Hi Cyclist, So where for POG from here, I can see 880 on the short term horizon, and I'm not sure I can't see a classic head and shoulders formation developing on the daily chart which could see us heading into OMG the low 800s by end March?

I'm not too clever on H and S formations but does this look like one forming from either the 17 Dec or the 31Dec depending on your starting point?

http://www.netdania.com/FinanceChart-2-1.asp?symbol=XAUUSDOZ|comstock_lite&name=Gold, spot

Any thoughts on this anyone?

jeff65
02-13-2008, 05:37 AM
and I'm not sure I can't see a classic head and shoulders formation developing on the daily chart

Head and shoulders is what it's supposed to look like. There was a similar one in Dec. The artistry didn't fool many as the price is now over $100 higher.

Lord Lister
02-13-2008, 06:29 AM
Head and shoulders is what it's supposed to look like. There was a similar one in Dec. The artistry didn't fool many as the price is now over $100 higher.

Can't see one in Dec, only using the daily chart mind.

denaliguide
02-13-2008, 08:05 AM
Head and shoulders is what it's supposed to look like. There was a similar one in Dec. The artistry didn't fool many as the price is now over $100 higher.



I'd agree with you 1000% because it is part of my working thesis that we are

getting bad info, they are "cooking the books", and "painting the tape",

and generally got virtually everyone on in a real sweat with their little reindeer

games. Far as I am concerned, the H & S will come later. Too many bad

spots in their pictures. Its like counterfeiters trying to imitate real money.

Their work looked a bit off here and there, so the knowing ones called

it "the queer", cause it had things in it that tipped you it wasnt right, even

at first look, altho it took you a minute or two to pick out what was wrong.

This move has that feel as well, head fakes, "queer H & S ", etc.

dg:cool:

clayson
02-13-2008, 09:18 AM
i cannot see a big drop in gold, perhaps 880 at most imo, and this will be sharp move so it would be unwise to hedge/or sell my exposure in Gold and gold stocks. From sept 2007 investor portfolios are adding physical and senior gold stocks on average up to 5%, so do hedge funds, which they intent to keep long enough, so on that basis IMF news and India jewelry lacking demand looks just noise at the current timing. i think the resilience will surprise a lot of people

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 09:43 AM
sold HGD etfs

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 09:59 AM
bought HXD,BKX weak

Gold Bouillon
02-13-2008, 10:02 AM
I know it flies in the face of sentiment here. Had a buy indicator after the drop so this looked like a decent morning to jump into ElDorado (EGO).

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 10:05 AM
I know it flies in the face of sentiment here. Had a buy indicator after the drop so this looked like a decent morning to jump into ElDorado (EGO).

yes,it would be .hourly cycle has bottomed.Gold has to rally strongly from here.Else it will be to short the rallies

pedroxico
02-13-2008, 10:12 AM
yes,it would be .hourly cycle has bottomed.Gold has to rally strongly from here.Else it will be to short the rallies

Short the rallies??? Can you elaborate please?

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 10:13 AM
Short the rallies??? Can you elaborate please?
After tomorrow it is short the rallies time

clayson
02-13-2008, 10:24 AM
After tomorrow it is short the rallies time

which rallies you are referring too mostly? gold rallies etc because lately there is some strong divergence.

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 10:34 AM
which rallies you are referring too mostly? gold rallies etc because lately there is some strong divergence.

All stock rallies gold or otherwise

pedroxico
02-13-2008, 10:34 AM
FEB 14 is pointing to be the top for this move with a retracement into the first week of April.Gold could hit 970 within that time space, with a down side
around the 830 in April.:cool:

Do you continue to see gold going down the day after tomorrow?

panzer
02-13-2008, 10:38 AM
All stock rallies gold or otherwise


I think you are right about the month of february and stocks declining. wish I followed your advice to begin the week! O well. Wallet lighter but a lesson learned. In terms of the range, I see that the HUI index broke out at around 365, ran up to 455/466 in November, and "corrected" (what a bs term indeed!) or reacted all the way back down to a low of around HUI 375 in mid December, a real ball buster. Now we Have the HUI on this move coming all the way back and topping around 485 or so. More recently it looks like the index put in a double top. Might we retest the HUI 400 to 405 area? thoughts...

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 10:38 AM
Do you continue to see gold going down the day after tomorrow?

Respectful for sharp counter rallies we are going down

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 10:40 AM
I think you are right about the month of february and stocks declining. wish I followed your advice to begin the week! O well. Wallet lighter but a lesson learned. In terms of the range, I see that the HUI index broke out at around 365, ran up to 455/466 in November, and "corrected" (what a bs term indeed!) or reacted all the way back down to a low of around HUI 375 in mid December, a real ball buster. Now we Have the HUI on this move coming all the way back and topping around 485 or so. More recently it looks like the index put in a double top. Might we retest the HUI 400 to 405 area? thoughts...

if breaking 410 .the jaw of 360 is showing

Gold Bouillon
02-13-2008, 10:41 AM
After tomorrow it is short the rallies time

All stock rallies gold or otherwise

All stocks are going down starting tomorrow.
When/if there are rallies - buy shorts.
Do not buy into dips like usual.

This is supposed to last until April?

Just want to be sure I understand.

Sulla
02-13-2008, 10:43 AM
Hello Cyclist,
Was out of the loop last week. I am taking you are bearish now short term into February by what I read. What changed your mind about the second week of February being a bullish turn date?

Sulla

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 10:45 AM
Hello Cyclist,
Was out of the loop last week. I am taking you are bearish now short term into February by what I read. What changed your mind about the second week of February being a bullish turn date?

Sulla

bullish with gold ,not with stocks.Senior stocks are way overvalued.

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 10:47 AM
the XGD is breaking down

denaliguide
02-13-2008, 11:29 AM
the XGD is breaking down


its 45 min later - and the one min chart shows the turn - it feels queer !!

I am still all in - not yet convinced.........:cool:

dg

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 11:33 AM
its 45 min later - and the one min chart shows the turn - it feels queer !!

I am still all in - not yet convinced.........:cool:

dg

this is the hourly cycle,will see how far it runs till tomorrow

Lord Lister
02-13-2008, 11:33 AM
So, can you just clarify, are you still bullish for gold, and for what term?

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 11:35 AM
this is the hourly cycle,will see how far it runs till tomorrow


XGD could still make it to 87/88 by tomorrow

severeuke
02-13-2008, 11:43 AM
Cyclist, you mentioned last year that gold would "sing" in 2008. Do you still hold this view and if so, what month do you feel is the best entry?

Thanks pal

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 11:46 AM
Cyclist, you mentioned last year that gold would "sing" in 2008. Do you still hold this view and if so, what month do you feel is the best entry?

Thanks pal

Next one April

Molyman
02-13-2008, 11:54 AM
Cyclist,

Golds rise on the April contract to 912.60 looks impulsive. Is it possible we are marked a bottom in gold at 900.50 this morning. HUI is rallying and McHugh has the next phi turn date for the GM on March 3rd.

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 12:10 PM
Cyclist,

Golds rise on the April contract to 912.60 looks impulsive. Is it possible we are marked a bottom in gold at 900.50 this morning. HUI is rallying and McHugh has the next phi turn date for the GM on March 3rd.

If the XGD takes out 88 ,there is another minor lower high I suspect on the 20th.Looking at the Yen it confirms that it is going to make a low tomorrow.

pedroxico
02-13-2008, 12:32 PM
yes,it would be .hourly cycle has bottomed.Gold has to rally strongly from here.Else it will be to short the rallies

I'm holding my breath here. Do you expect gold to reach 920 before next Friday doom day.

Moon899
02-13-2008, 01:17 PM
Hi guys...

What are the predictions for POG@$970 at this point? This week is special, things are going the opposite way so far. Even the weather is.

Bruce7Trader
02-13-2008, 01:23 PM
the XGD is breaking down

I see the same in the minds of may a gold investor looking for a clear up but is this not called climb the wall of worry? When all things look bright and not a cloud in the sky the Gold index will have near doubled to 700. Selling this morning gives the discounted shares to a trader who will ride the PM stocks to the next level. I see Cormark selling out as they are loaded with margin calls so they have no choice but those shares are being held up today with buyers. Toronto up 145 points as we speak. Some sold this morning out of fear but when fear is the driver better not to invest or just invest smaller.I added Goldenstar this morning @ 3.59 very good buy. Goldenstar is a bargin that has been easy to buy for several months.

Bruce970gold

Ops i just sold the Goldenstar that was cool!

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 01:26 PM
I'm holding my breath here. Do you expect gold to reach 920 before next Friday doom day.
With physical there is no doomsday,still a bull market ,shaking out weak hands

Bruce7Trader
02-13-2008, 01:47 PM
After meeting my friend last week in the coffee shop i realize he had a point when he said about three times before i walked out. Buy Great Basin Gold Ltd!! Buy BUY BUY and was he right!!! This is a long term hold and a value investment. Added some IMG at 7.26 this afternoon with the profits from this morning trade 2,000 shares!

Bruce970gold:)

I view IMG as a Bank account for the future.

Venturer
02-13-2008, 02:15 PM
After meeting my friend last week in the coffee shop i realize he had a point when he said about three times before i walked out. Buy Great Basin Gold Ltd!! Buy BUY BUY and was he right!!! This is a long term hold and a value investment. Added some IMG at 7.26 this afternoon with the profits from this morning trade 2,000 shares!

Bruce970gold:)

I view IMG as a Bank account for the future.

I will respectfully disagree with you on GBN being a long term hold. My guess is they will be bought in less than three months. Their recent success with UG exploration at Hollister, close proximity to Newmont and Barrick Mills, plus their current dirt cheap share price make them a plum ready to pick. Regarding their UG success, check out my post today regarding GBN.

Blackv35
02-13-2008, 02:24 PM
After tomorrow it is short the rallies time

What would you suggest for this (SRS, SDS, SKF, DXD)? I'm looking to average in to these positions. Thanks :) .

sceptic
02-13-2008, 02:25 PM
Hecla (HL) met my target and got a nice profit.

cloak and dagger
02-13-2008, 03:03 PM
What would you suggest for this (SRS, SDS, SKF, DXD)? I'm looking to average in to these positions. Thanks :) .

QID is good give it a try its for the naz

sceptic
02-13-2008, 03:17 PM
Hi Cyclist,

I have a question for you or some other thoughtful members of this thread.

My grand-uncle has some money in front of him and he would like to find some kind of placement for the next 2 years which is not too risky, too volatile (he is old!) and also liquid.

He doesn't care about having high-returns and he would be perfectly happy with something returning above "real inflation" either by dividends or capital appreciation.

I told him to buy gold and/or silver for the capital appreciation but he believes this is too risky.

He wanted to get a CD from his local bank but I told him this would be crazy.

So what are his options?

Maybe diversify in another currency like the Yen which should probably appreciate against the USD?

In that case, does he needs to buy something like FXY which yields 0 interest or buy Japanese bonds, I don't know...

What are his other "safe" options?

Thanks!

danson
02-13-2008, 03:38 PM
@sceptic: tell him to slowly change into nickels (you might have to free a garage). nominal value is guaranteed and metal price already 40% above nominal value. the safest trade in history! sadly its not easy applicable.

sorry just kidding ;) I guess tell him to diversify into all of the above..

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 03:43 PM
Hi Cyclist,

I have a question for you or some other thoughtful members of this thread.

My grand-uncle has some money in front of him and he would like to find some kind of placement for the next 2 years which is not too risky, too volatile (he is old!) and also liquid.

He doesn't care about having high-returns and he would be perfectly happy with something returning above "real inflation" either by dividends or capital appreciation.

I told him to buy gold and/or silver for the capital appreciation but he believes this is too risky.

He wanted to get a CD from his local bank but I told him this would be crazy.

So what are his options?

Maybe diversify in another currency like the Yen which should probably appreciate against the USD?

In that case, does he needs to buy something like FXY which yields 0 interest or buy Japanese bonds, I don't know...

What are his other "safe" options?

Thanks!

would go for
1 Gold coins 25% delivered
2 Yen Treasury bills 25% or FXY
3 Canadian Treasury bills25% or FXC
4 Euro treasury bills 25% or FXE

Latviski
02-13-2008, 03:48 PM
Treasury = no risk. Unless you believe in doomsday, which is not coming anytime soon to a theater near you.

Otherwise, I'd look to high dividend energy stocks/ trusts (after market has another significant tumble). ERF = ~10%/ PGH = ~15%/ etc. You want something w/ strong dividend and good cash flow and little to no debt. Also, I'd only consider stocks w/ a low P/E.

I'm personally waiting for another round of shorting opps...SDS in particular. Did great w/ this last couple of weeks (i.e 10% weekly trades), and am currently 100% cash and waiting for another top...

Shorting = high risk, but potential high return.



Hi Cyclist,

I have a question for you or some other thoughtful members of this thread.

My grand-uncle has some money in front of him and he would like to find some kind of placement for the next 2 years which is not too risky, too volatile (he is old!) and also liquid.

He doesn't care about having high-returns and he would be perfectly happy with something returning above "real inflation" either by dividends or capital appreciation.

I told him to buy gold and/or silver for the capital appreciation but he believes this is too risky.

He wanted to get a CD from his local bank but I told him this would be crazy.

So what are his options?

Maybe diversify in another currency like the Yen which should probably appreciate against the USD?

In that case, does he needs to buy something like FXY which yields 0 interest or buy Japanese bonds, I don't know...

What are his other "safe" options?

Thanks!

sceptic
02-13-2008, 03:56 PM
would go for
1 Gold coins 25% delivered
2 Yen Treasury bills 25% or FXY
3 Canadian Treasury bills25% or FXC
4 Euro treasury bills 25% or FXE

Thanks all and especially Danson for his 40% roi tip ;)

Cyclist, that seems reasonable but when is time to buy into those foreign currencies and gold?

Maybe now for Yen but you said not long ago that Euro and Cad might be topping as we will go in "competitive devaluation" and USD might get a bounce... Also gold might retreat a little bit.

Did I get it right or did I loose something in translation? ;)

So how do you get the buy flash signal?

Blackv35
02-13-2008, 04:24 PM
QID is good give it a try its for the naz


I know what they are for. I'm trying to figure out if Cyclist is inferring that the decline will be caused mostly by the financials or from a lack of liquidity.

Bruce7Trader
02-13-2008, 04:40 PM
Uranium is a great place to park some cash for 2008. The Uranium stocks have been driven into the ground after they were pumped hard in 2006.I added one today and now hold two Uranium stocks RSC and PDN.

Please do not buy these as these are volitile daily and not for quick return but long term these could do very well. I'm not here to pump but to find value and you can do as you like..

Bruce970gold:)

Some of the stocks are deeply oversold.

Cyclist
02-13-2008, 04:56 PM
I know what they are for. I'm trying to figure out if Cyclist is inferring that the decline will be caused mostly by the financials or from a lack of liquidity.

It is the financials that will cause the decline and consequently creating illiquidity in the market.XGD bears watching how far the senior goldstocks will run in this liquified mini rally .Still long the goldstocks,

oodat
02-13-2008, 06:24 PM
It is the financials that will cause the decline and consequently creating illiquidity in the market.XGD bears watching how far the senior goldstocks will run in this liquified mini rally .Still long the goldstocks,

Cyclist,
Do you see ORV running up near term:confused:

Quad G
02-13-2008, 07:10 PM
Hi Cyclist,

I have a question for you or some other thoughtful members of this thread.

My grand-uncle has some money in front of him and he would like to find some kind of placement for the next 2 years which is not too risky, too volatile (he is old!) and also liquid.

He doesn't care about having high-returns and he would be perfectly happy with something returning above "real inflation" either by dividends or capital appreciation.

I told him to buy gold and/or silver for the capital appreciation but he believes this is too risky.

He wanted to get a CD from his local bank but I told him this would be crazy.

So what are his options?

Maybe diversify in another currency like the Yen which should probably appreciate against the USD?

In that case, does he needs to buy something like FXY which yields 0 interest or buy Japanese bonds, I don't know...

What are his other "safe" options?

Thanks!

Have you checked into Everbank's Gold CDs and Currency CDs?

The currency CDs not only gain against the drop in the USD but also pays you interest over time. You can get a short 3month term for most Currencies.

The Gold CDs have a 'no loss of principle guarantee'. But will gain interest equivalent to the average increase in spot gold. Pretty good deal.


...

Thomas Jefferson
02-13-2008, 09:29 PM
Buy or sell now?14th nose dive or skyrocket,Just tryying to stay alive here.
Gota keep runnin:cool:

Thomas Jefferson
02-14-2008, 01:52 AM
What does this mean ?anyone ...cyclist?I am holding gold physical.what will correct gold down /up..?
Obviously the CBs will run out of ammo eventually unless they confiscate.But if we eventually have a digiatl curr
all bets go out the window.Are IMF bonds overtaking the fed power anyway?

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2008/0212.html
Thanks:cool:

jeff65
02-14-2008, 02:08 AM
What does this mean ?

It means people are finally catching on that the USD index is not fundamentally connected to the gold price. If everyone is inflating, it wont show up in the dollar index. You might soon be paying $500 for an apple, though.

Either that or it means there will be a correction in either the dollar or the gold price.

NBA1232
02-14-2008, 03:16 AM
:) UP UP UP and Away
if this trend going on we will see 930 at the end of the day :)
NICE :)

Wards_Back
02-14-2008, 12:26 PM
BKX rolling-over this morning.

ted1102
02-14-2008, 01:57 PM
Cylclist, so are we still flipping this week to buy a future pullback in GOLD or are we holding tight due to unknown, unstable conditions? Should we flip or hold. Thanx TED

poll1
02-14-2008, 02:19 PM
I think a pullback is quite clear after IMF's move unless we have a critical statistics or event occurs. The pullback will be a setup for next bull market.

Thomas Jefferson
02-14-2008, 02:41 PM
I think a pullback is quite clear after IMF's move unless we have a critical statistics or event occurs. The pullback will be a setup for next bull market.

the IMFwill not sell down ,they have to get 85% vote from the US Congress to sell down and congress cannot agree on the colour to paint the white house ,just will not happen,US also has veto rights,this is a continual staged debasement of USD just as what happened when European union was formed.:cool: The CFR is not just a drinking club,the bilderburgers do not meet to play tiddlywinks....:cool:

Bruce7Trader
02-14-2008, 02:45 PM
Friday is the 3rd Friday of the month. expiration day!

Bruce970gold:)

Thomas Jefferson
02-14-2008, 02:50 PM
Friday is the 3rd Friday of the month. expiration day!

Bruce970gold:)

yes indeed,Bernake and paulson had nothing,Would have been great to see Ron doing some grilling.So where to from here for Au?:cool: Do we bail the gallion before the pirates from the IMF debase(will they be able or all puff)or do we defend /swim off and buy back into booty?:cool:

Wards_Back
02-14-2008, 04:19 PM
BKX rolling-over this morning.

BKX closed under 87 today.

Watch out below...

Thomas Jefferson
02-14-2008, 04:41 PM
BKX closed under 87 today.

Watch out below...
clarify please i am dumb.what relivance is the BKX and its level to do with Au?
Thanks:cool:

tothemoon
02-14-2008, 06:39 PM
BKX closed under 87 today.

Watch out below...

The 10 Yr bond made a monster move today. An enormous $250B added to the slosh today.

I agree something big is coming...

Have we agreed on the bext way to play the short side (HXD, DXD or QID)?

Wards_Back
02-14-2008, 07:47 PM
The 10 Yr bond made a monster move today. An enormous $250B added to the slosh today.

I agree something big is coming...

Have we agreed on the bext way to play the short side (HXD, DXD or QID)?

I'm even wary of the shortside. The recent SM rally feels artificial. I'm not comfortable trading any part of this equity market right now; something just doesn't feel right. I've booked my profits and gone 100% cash over the last few days (though I continue to hold all my physical).

It's easier to make up a lost opportunity than to make up lost capital.

grayfox063
02-14-2008, 08:19 PM
I'm even wary of the shortside. The recent SM rally feels artificial. I'm not comfortable trading any part of this equity market right now; something just doesn't feel right. I've booked my profits and gone 100% cash over the last few days (though I continue to hold all my physical).

It's easier to make up a lost opportunity than to make up lost capital.
You are one smart dude, Ward.

I always value your comments that pertain to the real world (i.e., not related to stocks and other paper crap).

But this statement amuses me: "I've booked my profits and gone 100% cash over the last few days (though I continue to hold all my physical)."

To me, GOLD is cash; not stupid FRN's or other paper instruments issued by our corrupt government (or any other government, for that matter). If ya know what's good for ya, you'd best take all that play money and convert it into physical while the convert'n is good.

If you don't, yer gonna wind up with the Old Maid card in your hand. :)

dtrvler
02-14-2008, 08:21 PM
he just does it as part of an elaborate dog and pony show to create propaganda the makes it look like the fed is underneath congress when actually the fed is above the president in terms of it's power.
it makes me sick to see what this country has become...and what this country's media and government has become...

tothemoon
02-14-2008, 08:22 PM
I've booked my profits and gone 100% cash over the last few days (though I continue to hold all my physical).
[/I].

I closed out most positions on Monday and am 95% in cash. I plan to hedge my few junior positions with HXD because they are too thinly traded to get out of. I'm about 10% physical at this time.

Bruce7Trader
02-15-2008, 09:40 AM
I closed out most positions on Monday and am 95% in cash. I plan to hedge my few junior positions with HXD because they are too thinly traded to get out of. I'm about 10% physical at this time.

Miners open up. It's climb the wall of worry time as too many are in cash and the miners are a bargin. This bargin will pass as those in cash will be looking for entry. HUI opened higher and many see Gold over 919 is a breakout for a 80 dollar rally and getting close to 1,000 gold!

Bruce970gold:)

Bruce7Trader
02-15-2008, 10:11 AM
One thing to know about Cash it can be the most painful place to park when the rally takes to flight. miners can double in very short order from this discounted and low levels filled with multi weeks of fear. Cyclist you did good in TET.UN on your last buy. I'm always in the trade on the trusts.

HUI opens up this friday morning.

Bruce970gold:)

Last point we are nearing a super spike as AX has mentioned 50 dollar moves followed with 30 dollar declines. And more 50 dollar moves. No one wants to miss these days. As AX has said hold and ride it out to miss one day of the rally thats on it's way will be hard to get back in and you will pay a day trader for his trades.

RL100
02-15-2008, 10:38 AM
One thing to know about Cash it can be the most painful place to park when the rally takes to flight. miners can double in very short order from this discounted and low levels filled with multi weeks of fear. Cyclist you did good in TET.UN on your last buy. I'm always in the trade on the trusts.

HUI opens up this friday morning.

Bruce970gold:)

Last point we are nearing a super spike as AX has mentioned 50 dollar moves followed with 30 dollar declines. And more 50 dollar moves. No one wants to miss these days. As AX has said hold and ride it out to miss one day of the rally thats on it's way will be hard to get back in and you will pay a day trader for his trades.

Gotta say, The more I read your posts Bruce the more I respect your judgement. You're a wild guy but obviously know what you're doing. Respects,

Wards_Back
02-15-2008, 11:41 AM
Gotta say, The more I read your posts Bruce the more I respect your judgement. You're a wild guy but obviously know what you're doing. Respects,

Take a look at the XAU and HUI...

It's easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital.

Cash isn't looking too 'painful' this morning.

I can wait for a better buying opportunity.

bigdog3580
02-15-2008, 12:10 PM
Let's see if SPOT holds $900.

Thats gotta be worth something to the "charters", correct?

Wards_Back
02-15-2008, 12:11 PM
Hello? Bruce? Are you out there?

How're your gold stocks doing this morning? ;)

Wards_Back
02-15-2008, 12:14 PM
I closed out most positions on Monday and am 95% in cash. I plan to hedge my few junior positions with HXD because they are too thinly traded to get out of. I'm about 10% physical at this time.

Your HXD play is working well today. Hope it offsets your losses on your other juniors.

Cyclist said there would be days like this.

btw, I am about 33% physical, and holding.

RL100
02-15-2008, 12:22 PM
Take a look at the XAU and HUI...

It's easier to make up lost opportunities than lost capital.

Cash isn't looking too 'painful' this morning.

I can wait for a better buying opportunity.

Maybe I'm twisted up in my thinking but the XAU and HUI look good to me. Both are on the 50 ma and close to 100 MA which are strong support along with daily stochastics as oversold. What concerns me is all this talk about a global selloff if the S&P gets below 1300... I'm tempted to go to cash too but just thinning out my weak ones and holding on. Holding more cash if there is a selloff and average down on the good gold majors if that happens.

Wards_Back
02-15-2008, 12:34 PM
Maybe I'm twisted up in my thinking but the XAU and HUI look good to me. Both are on the 50 ma and close to 100 MA which are strong support along with daily stochastics as oversold. What concerns me is all this talk about a global selloff if the S&P gets below 1300... I'm tempted to go to cash too but just thinning out my weak ones and holding on. Holding more cash if there is a selloff and average down on the good gold majors if that happens.

Many of the miners report in the next week or two. My concern is that it could be a real wildcard. Everyone seems to expect that the higher gold price will guarantee higher earnings and guidance. There are a couple of problems with this: 1) Companies base earnings outlook on yearly average gold price; not just what the price is today, and: 2) Higher energy and production expenses (ala NovaGold's debaucle) could throw a real monkey wrench into the works.

I am worried that traders may have already factored higher gold into current share prices, but have yet to consider higher production costs.

Furthermore, miners are still merely stocks, and with what's going on in the ARS markets lately, there are likely to be a lot more 'shoes' dropping.
I think Cyclist is probably right that we are on the threshold of a large market selloff (this bear isn't over; we have yet to find the 'real' bottom), and the main market could very well take the miners down with it.

I simply not comfortable gambling in this casino right now. I can wait for better opportunities.

danson
02-15-2008, 12:45 PM
chitchat spamming (thread hijacking) might actually scare cyclist out of his own thread. please don't post every f*king brain fart.. I have a hard time finding cyclists posts...

please don't feel offended, start your own successful thread! peace.. :D

swampy
02-15-2008, 01:03 PM
It is the financials that will cause the decline and consequently creating illiquidity in the market.XGD bears watching how far the senior goldstocks will run in this liquified mini rally .Still long the goldstocks,

cyclist, can you give an update on where everything stands. are you still thinking we start the downtrend today with a bottom the end of march/early april. or is your view altered with a rally into next week and then the selloff.

thx

swampy

RL100
02-15-2008, 04:10 PM
Hear ya - I'm here for Cyclist too.

Thomas Jefferson
02-15-2008, 06:44 PM
With baited breath we all wait for your gilded thoughts:cool: Being popular does not come without irritation:cool:
You know i watch these charts on gold and silv at present and it seems every time gold hits 910/915 some one hits the automatic dump button !!!please explain ,look at this latest nice build to 915 then boom drop to 915(these are surely large individual dumps-not mass reaction?are they not?).
Is 900-910 no-mans land at present?solid but certainly not swinging enough to be worth the mass jumping in in out for swing trades or riding the bull for a while and then swinging down with the bear and hopping back on the bull?
Cyclist ..IMF sales in april please give us your rationale.
and India what is the pychology of buying ,the culture is not about to change ,do not
marriages & dowerys still revolve around gold ,please setus straight.
Thanks

brjwjaj
02-17-2008, 10:01 AM
in Dec. I loaded up with a basket of Jrs. So far, nothing. Should I take
the loss at this time and buy bullion? Down over 12% ...Will they come
back or can I sell now and buy back even lower. Orv Swg Exm Van Osk
Ipt Sbw Aun...any advice will be helpful.

Jim

tothemoon
02-19-2008, 10:45 AM
HGD I use the most to hedge,and will use it to protect a fairly large position in ORV which I intend to keep.The main market will get hit hard so it is opportune to short any rally until blood flows in the street.

Hi,

Just wanted to get your latest thoughts on the markets. Do you still see a major decline this week or next?

Thanks as always,

goldrookie
02-19-2008, 11:41 AM
Can/t you see that we need your insight.Theres money to be made(and Lost)

Moggy
02-19-2008, 12:06 PM
<<please don't feel offended, start your own successful thread! peace.. :D >>

Add me to the list not to drive Cyclist away with chitchat.

Moggy

donjahz
02-19-2008, 12:34 PM
According to Cyclist, we are supposed to be shorting, or at least selling, this rally. Is anyone confident enough to do so? :cool:

zasel
02-19-2008, 01:02 PM
IMO, cyclist war right about rally to 940/970 and then retracement.
the only thing was not on the money - is the timing.
He indicated fer 14 as a turning date.
I thing this is a finial 5th wave of a cycle which began in August and the end of the 2nd wave of the supercycle (next up in size) and may be end of the first wave of super grand cycle (next up in size)
I think sometime by end of Feb to March 3rd, trend may reverse.

junlove
02-19-2008, 01:12 PM
goldessentials reports india wedding session is around April.. and since huge demands comes fr india, won't it help POG?
hopefully this can counter the effects of IMF selling
http://www.goldessential.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=632&Itemid=1

n910wa
02-19-2008, 01:51 PM
If GDX, GLD can close on their highs wer'e off to the races! It's been a long time coming. April time frame for a new high in GDX around 61.00. IMHO.

Thomas Jefferson
02-19-2008, 09:08 PM
We wait wuth baited breath,:cool:

goldstar2001
02-19-2008, 10:14 PM
goldessentials reports india wedding session is around April.. and since huge demands comes fr india, won't it help POG?
hopefully this can counter the effects of IMF selling
http://www.goldessential.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=632&Itemid=1

I had heard from an India co-worker that there is a shift from gold to platinum as the jewelery PM of choice. This in part may be fueling the rally in platinum. I wish I would have heard about this a few years back.

denaliguide
02-19-2008, 10:36 PM
Cyclist will be back in his own time, I bet. Live, let live, and set your stops tight for tomorrow we slide, IMO.

dg

Thomas Jefferson
02-19-2008, 11:02 PM
Cyclist will be back in his own time, I bet. Live, let live, and set your stops tight for tomorrow we slide, IMO.

dg
time is at hand too late to comment after the matter,Hey denaliguide what does your name mean??
Whats your reasoning for gold to drop tommorrow ..profit take,nervous hands running up to april imf ..I am about to bail from monex i have had enough of dealing with the idiots there,everytime i telll them they are wrong i am right!!,will soon be trading on kitco..
What is it that has made cyclist so popular?..i mean what are the rational calls he uses...cannot get info from him so asking..I am not one to follow anyone with a blind stick.
Thanks:cool:

Rocco
02-19-2008, 11:21 PM
That was just what Google told me though...lol
Tomorrow will be very decisive..If it holds and moves up,it should be big.Fundamentally,it seems like it needs to move higher to maintain purchasing power as the king of currencies.Commodities in general are going crazy,and so are Treasuries,but the market doesn't care short term.Long term,all the commodities look real strong,the Dollar looks like a currency from a third world nation and were headed for major trouble in the financial markets..Safety would seem to be on the sidelines with a strong physical position.

Thomas Jefferson
02-20-2008, 12:24 AM
That was just what Google told me though...lol
Tomorrow will be very decisive..If it holds and moves up,it should be big.Fundamentally,it seems like it needs to move higher to maintain purchasing power as the king of currencies.Commodities in general are going crazy,and so are Treasuries,but the market doesn't care short term.Long term,all the commodities look real strong,the Dollar looks like a currency from a third world nation and were headed for major trouble in the financial markets..Safety would seem to be on the sidelines with a strong physical position.

Absolutly agrree with all you said...Ben has done all he can he will continue to chop but banks are at h3 reserve rates they are just floating that is all.the rest is semantics.
1000$ gold will look bad for the fed and bush so dumps will take place to save face..these are great for buy and sell....when hillary wins as the anointed one the spending and candy scramble will rip the guts out of what is left of the USD...soc sec & med care (reform)read it anyway you want we head for compltete meltdown...the big boys are offshore holding shorting and will come back for the firesale ...these basterds need a noose...maybe Rockefeller is right ..the sheep are just breath with a timeline,i can see where he is coming from but i beleive in sovereinty and the constitution and am not in the eletes inner circle..plus these warmongers are sick:cool:

goldstar2001
02-20-2008, 06:11 AM
What is it that has made cyclist so popular?..i mean what are the rational calls he uses...cannot get info from him so asking..I am not one to follow anyone with a blind stick.
Thanks:cool:

I'm relatively new to this forum but reading some of the Cyclist postings indicates to me that he has the big picture understanding of world economics which takes time, sweat, and talent. I also believe that the future of the gold market will be dictated by the China economy which is a double edge sword. Just as China was responsible for exporting disinflation over the past few years that will turn around dramatically and they will begiin to export inflation. Furthermore, China began a gold ETF recently which will ultimately soak up gold the same as the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) did since its launch. My other expectation is gas prices this summer will be on the order of $3.50 o $4 gallon which gold appears to track closely. I'm guessing that the rebate checks are timed to offset this potential price increase in gas IMHO. The other possible driver to higher priced gold is what I heard discussed yesterday on CNBC and the discussion of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) to avoid the possible recession. Someone once told me that the US economy tends to follow Japan and Japan is running at a 0.5 percent interest rate which is very close to ZIRP.

One follow-up thought is that China may hold down inflation until the conclusion of the Beijing Olympics scheduled for Aug 8-24 to insure maximum worldwide attendance and a very positive takeaway.

Your thoughts on my ramblings???

denaliguide
02-20-2008, 09:08 AM
My name means I was a guide in Denali National Park in Interior Alaska. Not a mountain climbing guide, but an interpretive guide along the public routes.

Cyclist is well informed, and i am guessing here, but seems to specialize in CYCLES [ go figure ! ? ! ]. He seems well informed about dynamics and events, and shares it willingly, even if he doesnt share his methods. Just as well we are like 9 blind men trying to describe an elephant !!

dg

Bruce7Trader
02-20-2008, 01:28 PM
The double bear HUI!!!

Bruce970gold

Being all in cash from last week would be expensive. Some already did the pay a trader to get back in. How about that Gammon Gold what a bit of news can do...

Thomas Jefferson
02-20-2008, 01:45 PM
666 hmmm:eek:

mrnewt
02-20-2008, 01:47 PM
I remember a while back cyclist said he would be traveling sometime
in FEB. I suggest that this is why he is not posting.
He will return.

goldbuggerer
02-20-2008, 01:54 PM
I remember a while back cyclist said he would be traveling sometime
in FEB. I suggest that this is why he is not posting.
He will return.

mayor? pm me...

Bruce7Trader
02-20-2008, 03:00 PM
I'm even wary of the shortside. The recent SM rally feels artificial. I'm not comfortable trading any part of this equity market right now; something just doesn't feel right. I've booked my profits and gone 100% cash over the last few days (though I continue to hold all my physical).

It's easier to make up a lost opportunity than to make up lost capital.

Good to know you are in on this bull run as to be on the side is very expensive. Day traders love to sell at higher prices due to fear. To time a bull and be all in cash is very expensive!

Bruce970gold

n910wa
02-20-2008, 06:07 PM
and $HUI broke out upward today. The P&F on GDX has a neat coil which projects the low 60's.

Moon899
02-20-2008, 09:06 PM
Any news for the trend in the next couple of days?

POG + or - ??

Nelderand
02-21-2008, 10:23 AM
Don't look now, but you are posting on page 666. Don't see much downside in the PM sector over the next few months, except for brief retracements. The chart of $Gold is set-up almost perfectly like brother $Plat was at lift-off with a rising MACD supported by a rising ADX line, and the moving averages in super bullish alignment.

It will be interesting to hear Cyclist's take.

http://aycu36.webshots.com/image/45875/2000419453617107794_rs.jpg (http://allyoucanupload.webshots.com/v/2000419453617107794)

AfricanSkies
02-21-2008, 12:06 PM
Remember the old relationship between oil and gold, 1oz ORO = 10 barrels OIL. Still holding true.

So beware the oil chart, it has a broadening top.

A break of this pattern would bring the price of oil back down to the mid $70s and would drag gold back to the $700's.

http://i68.photobucket.com/albums/i1/africanskies/history.png

Beware the rising wedge formations in some of the goldstocks too...

clayson
02-21-2008, 12:30 PM
tell me one reason, it would fall in the stagflationary mess we are into ?:rolleyes:

donjahz
02-21-2008, 12:39 PM
Dines' theory of paradoxical behavior of the markets.

Thomas Jefferson
02-21-2008, 12:41 PM
tell me one reason, it would fall in the stagflationary mess we are into ?:rolleyes:

CBs;) sell downs and the chinese buying into the US..the saudis did
exactly that after the oil shocks:cool:

clayson
02-21-2008, 12:52 PM
CBs;) sell downs and the chinese buying into the US..the saudis did
exactly that after the oil shocks:cool:

they are pressured to sell due to liquidity squeeze, similar to a margin call, what will happen after the CB sell downs ?

"chinese buying into the US", this is part of the equation, already happening;)

Thomas Jefferson
02-21-2008, 01:01 PM
they are pressured to sell due to liquidity squeeze, similar to a margin call, what will happen after the CB sell downs ?

"chinese buying into the US", this is part of the equation, already happening;)

so you agree.in the end all investments have to make a profit(most),so the economy will recver,i am bull on Au but do not swallow what sinclair and co are pushing(and he has his agenda)straight forward inflationary arithmetic!!
look even if alot of people beleive in the ultimate long ,concider what would come with it-total eco breakdown in the Us..it will not happen...and yes i am well versed in NAU,Amero,Bilderburg,CFR,.....it will not go as far as alot here "dream"..stop all offshore investment?:) these are my thoughts .and the CFR are not econi isolationists,it may appear that way between wealth transfers.And I am obviously a constitutionalist.so i have no agenda

AfricanSkies
02-21-2008, 01:05 PM
That would be one big reason, if oil fell, gold goes down too. And oil is high now on speculation. Anyway, the reasons are not always apparent but the charts seldom lie. Time will tell.

Silversoar444
02-21-2008, 01:07 PM
so you agree.in the end all investments have to make a profit(most),so the economy will recver,i am bull on Au but do not swallow what sinclair and co are pushing(and he has his agenda)straight forward inflationary aithmetic!!
look even if alot of people beleive i the ultimate long ,concider what would come with it-total eco breakdown in the Us..it will not happen...and yes i am well versed in NAU,Amero,Bilderburg,CFR,.....it will not go as far as alot here "dream"..stop all offshore investment?:) these are my thoughts .

Sinclair i think was a astronomer before, his figure is astronomical.

I said fund are playing ,so we play along with eye wide open.And we are into over bought position.,me more on siver,believe silver will soar to 444.

Thomas Jefferson
02-21-2008, 01:09 PM
That would be one big reason, if oil fell, gold goes down too. And oil is high now on speculation. Anyway, the reasons are not always apparent but the charts seldom lie. Time will tell.


even is a severe deflationary squeeze,there is still plenty of $ arround to hedge into Au (which is a tiny market):cool:

Thomas Jefferson
02-21-2008, 01:15 PM
Sinclair i think was a astronomer before, his figure is astronomical.

I said fund are playing ,so we play along with eye wide open.And we are into over bought position.,me more on siver,believe silver will soar to 444.

I agree the fundamentals of suplpy /demand are there..and to cover the sinclair to the sun theory silv is what is being discussed by the CFR on digital currancy..:cool: i am like you i am not getting gold fever,:) just sticking to fundamentals

clayson
02-21-2008, 01:30 PM
total eco breakdown in the Us..it will not happen...

of course not, agree on sinclair as well, we are just in the middle of a global transitional period which results in a stagflationary environment, fund buying is what is all about mainly, the trick is to get in before they get in and get out before they get out :rolleyes: , but boy are they starting to get in lately,
for next 6-8 months this is it, imo

Nelderand
02-21-2008, 03:48 PM
IMO the only way you could see much of a drop in Gold from here is if the Fed stopped the acceleration of US Dollar printing...........but they won't even stop the acceleration of printing. The PM stocks have lagged for one reason. The PM investors keep watching television and see the deflationary news the Fed and Friends want them to see. If they would look as closely when the go to the store, go to the barber shop, go to the gas station, to pay an insurance bill, go pay a tax bill, go get an ice cream cone.....and on and on; I think they would see the result of the USD printing in real time. Reality or fantasy? Television or real live pricing? Bottom line, IMO, the Fed desperately needs Gold and the PM stocks a whole lot higher in the immediate future if they are going to continue to play the liquidity rotation game to support the general markets into the deflationary scare bottom into the 4th quarter of 2008. You can't scare out money that tain't there. And, it is difficult for the trader friends to scare out money unless a momentum run leaves all of the PM investors heavily leveraged. Rocket into May. Very short-term stuff means little to me since we are moving into a momentum move that will only accelerate.

Only my opinion.................

Thomas Jefferson
02-22-2008, 07:10 AM
of course not, agree on sinclair as well, we are just in the middle of a global transitional period which results in a stagflationary environment, fund buying is what is all about mainly, the trick is to get in before they get in and get out before they get out :rolleyes: , but boy are they starting to get in lately,
for next 6-8 months this is it, imo


I agree,I am buying another screen for analysis,I am watching this imf polit football,at the very least great listening to power plays with other peoples other peoples money:cool:
would be great to see cyclist back:cool:

denaliguide
02-22-2008, 07:52 AM
so you agree.in the end all investments have to make a profit(most),so the economy will recver,i am bull on Au but do not swallow what sinclair and co are pushing(and he has his agenda)straight forward inflationary arithmetic!!
look even if alot of people beleive in the ultimate long ,concider what would come with it-total eco breakdown in the Us..it will not happen...and yes i am well versed in NAU,Amero,Bilderburg,CFR,.....it will not go as far as alot here "dream"..stop all offshore investment?:) these are my thoughts .and the CFR are not econi isolationists,it may appear that way between wealth transfers.And I am obviously a constitutionalist.so i have no agenda



I have listened to Sinclair's stuff and while able to discern he has an agenda,
I could not define it if you asked me to outline it, and yet a couple other I read, say as you do, that it is there. So if you would be so kind as to share,
since it is important for me to know where everyone is coming from, would
you please share your opinion of WHAT his agenda is? I'd rather start off with an informed opinion as a place to initiate an informed investigation, than try to find a loose end as a beginning place to determine that info. TIA.

DG:)

Thomas Jefferson
02-22-2008, 08:30 AM
I have listened to Sinclair's stuff and while able to discern he has an agenda,
I could not define it if you asked me to outline it, and yet a couple other I read, say as you do, that it is there. So if you would be so kind as to share,
since it is important for me to know where everyone is coming from, would
you please share your opinion of WHAT his agenda is? I'd rather start off with an informed opinion as a place to initiate an informed investigation, than try to find a loose end as a beginning place to determine that info. TIA.

DG:)

Indeed, when he offered $50,000 for solid evidence that a gold manipulation cartel exists I had to restrain myself. $50,000 wouldn't have been worth the risk in the seventies. How much would it take for someone like Sandford Weil (ex-Citigroup co-chairman) to come forward? Who does Jim expect to attract with that sum, Weil's shoe shiner?
Maybe someone would come forward for a cool $1 million (or more) today where they wouldn't for fifty grand, and we'd actually be getting somewhere for real. And when the book is published the venture could pay out a big fat dividend to all its stockholders.

You wanna' be a big boy Jim you gotta roll bigger dice than $50,000!


Den I am convinced on the fundamentals,the Fed and bilderburg have vs the have nots,but they are not going to kill the goose that lays the golden egg,and repalcing the fiat printer with a bigger one is very risky..
i am just keeping my eyes open like you ...this wealth transfer is anything but simple and comes with big risks...:cool: :)
please rationally correct me.
Thanks

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/bugos121003.html (http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/bugos121003.html)

Thomas Jefferson
02-22-2008, 08:41 AM
Den whats your take ,i am watching this ,...and naders own opinions are worthless..but these guys i am watching..the zero jap crowd are doomsday and extremist IMO.
Look forward to your take.:) lying through their teeth but they have balls!!


In case the apparent and now prolonged running behind the curve by the Fed has everyone convinced that rate cutting is a one-way street and that the body is oblivious to the inflationary fallout of its maneuvers, some cautionary words were leaked today from within the marble halls. Bloomberg reports that:

"Federal Reserve officials signaled they are prepared to quickly reverse last month's interest-rate cuts after concluding that borrowing costs need to be kept low for now. Policy makers cut their 2008 growth forecasts and said that rates should be held down "for a time," minutes of their Jan. 29-30 meeting showed yesterday. They also called inflation "disappointing, " and some foresaw raising rates, possibly at a "rapid" pace once the economy recovers.

The threat goes beyond remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who last week warned that policy will have to be "calibrated" over the next year to meet both inflation and growth objectives. Central bankers are wary of past criticism for keeping rates too low, too long and inflating asset [insert your favorite commodity here] bubbles, said analysts including David Greenlaw at Morgan Stanley.

"I don't think there's any question that they've learned from those experiences," said Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at the firm's New York office. "That lesson becomes more powerful as you get lower and lower on the funds rate target."

denaliguide
02-22-2008, 12:33 PM
TJ - thanks for you take on JS. I am time pressed at this moment, but I really value your reply. I will try to cobble up some passable rational response here in a little while. I can easily see some of your points here, but I will have to sit down and turn the knobs on my "Etch-A-Sketch" picture, and share it as soon as I think I wont embarass myself by doing just that. Funny some clown on TV telling me "SubPrime" is over. Lol, maybe so, DERIVATIVE SHOW is just opening. No doubt it will play in a theatre near him soon, since he says "We are Buying, in this wee bit of volatility . !" LOL.

See ya real soon,

DG

panzer
02-22-2008, 03:17 PM
good thoughts Nelderand.

stodmyk
02-22-2008, 05:19 PM
Two of my holdings right now: ORV is holding at sub-90, but the TET.un has finally made a move in the past ten trading days, going from barely over 7 to 8.29. Any predictions about the juniors and gassers from you teeth-grinders out there?

Jason in Vancouver

technicalanalyst
02-22-2008, 05:26 PM
Interesting finish in the stock markets today (http://www.guerilla-investor.com/). Maybe a rebound in the general markets will spill over into gold miners and precious metals?

Nelderand
02-22-2008, 05:27 PM
Thanks for the kind words. If you happen to be around Gold Eagle sometime, if you drop by the forum in the 7 AM hour there is an editorial by Goldrunner listed on the 20th with the Silver chart. Should be one coming out today cause it was sent in on Tuesday.....regarding LT Gold. Any feedback is welcome.

flags
02-22-2008, 06:48 PM
IMO, the Fed desperately needs Gold and the PM stocks a whole lot higher in the immediate future if they are going to continue to play the liquidity rotation game to support the general markets into the deflationary scare bottom into the 4th quarter of 2008. You can't scare out money that tain't there. ...

Neldy....interesting thoughts! Not sure i'm on board though. I think the main markets are the most important factor in the economic equation right now. I think they desperately need the Dow up. JS has alluded to this, that they must have the dow over 12000 or it begins to rattle the stabilty of a mountain of derivatives. The gold sector is so small compared to the broad market, in fact i don't believe there is a gold stock in the Dow components. I feel like it's more they are resistant to gold asserting itself too much and drawing to much capital into the PM's and the the PM stocks, which is bad business for Wall street.

If your comments were true, i think they would be using the media much more to promote the sector...but i haven't seen that except on BNN some and Bloomberg which brings in a lot of European experts. And, given the massive short position of the cartel, they could at the flick of a switch cover a chunk of positions to give a vibrant life to the sector. But it feels more that the PM sector is swimming upstream all the time....and of course they've got their hedgies leaning on or gold stocks at every opportunity. It will be interesting to see if next week the HUI can break to new highs...i'm optimistic, but really i have a stronger feel for the metal's move than the accompanying stocks. The metal seems solid now...they've tried to smack it twice this week and it has come back strong. I'm looking for new highs next week for sure their...but really we need to see the stock follow as well. JMO.

Nelderand
02-23-2008, 01:49 AM
I started to write a very long post to answer you, but deleted it. Your response was more of an "all or none" address. In life, things are different shades so there are currents and there are undercurrents. The Fed and Friends know their USD inflation is/ will create a Bull market in Gold, in fact they plan on it as the last major Bubble in the rolling Bubbles, before they "back" fiat with Gold in some way. In the big picture they only seek to slow down the rise of Gold and to "use it" to help control liquidity flows since their printing cannot pick "direction." Thus, they have been shorting Gold into natural resistance points on the chart to prevent a runaway market in the PM sector that would suck up liquidity, but I suspect they also help Gold along on the upside at times for timing purposes. I suspect they usually do that by buying the leveraged PM stocks into momentum runs, into the areas on the chart with "resistance gaps", as investors will see the PM stocks leading the metals at those times. Thus, we simply have a "managed market."

Their timing has to be pretty good as I think we will soon see. We are currently in a deflation scare in the general markets that I suspect they seek to use the same liquidity rotation to help protect a panic in the deflation scare bottom likely to come in the 4th quarter of 08 as Cyclist has mentioned. If so, they need to spike Gold and the PM stocks before then, so they can hammer them along with the other resource sector components like oil ahead of that expected bottom. If they do not, then momemtum will pick up speed in the PM sector and such all of the liquidity out of the falling general markets creating a panic that can easily become soup kitchen 1929. This time around, it appears to me that they ditched the regular timing cycle when the PM stocks would have naturally started to rise in late 2006/ early 2007. Why? Well, they had the Armstrong turndate in late Feb of 07 that they were deathly afraid of since so many investors are so aware of his work. Thus, they elected to push the general markets higher in that time-frame.

Because of that, now, they have a bit of a problem in order to get the PM stocks higher before they turn them for liquidity purposes. They will have to spike Gold and Silver higher along with the PM stocks to get back to the regular liquidity cycle that I think they planned long, ago. That won't be a problem as it will just look like an aggressive 5th wave, in fact, the similar cycle in the HUI (wave 3 of I) was also a bit of a mess to interpret from and EW perspective- probably for the same cycle reasons. My expected intermediate top from the work I did back in 2005 was expecting the IT top to come in into May....give or take a few months since I am usually off as current market forces will always dictate. Thus, it is possible to see that top come in as late as August, but I don't think so. I think we have Gold to spike much like Platinum over the next few months. I expect the PM stocks to go vertical as investor realize the effect of the already massively higher Gold and Silver in relation to investors expectations as they have focused on the deflationary news trotted out on television. Thus, I expect us to see a glimpse of what will become the norm in the PM parabola coming later into 2012 as investors suddenly but temporarily quit looking over their shoulders to a 3 year lagging average of PM prices as the metric for their evaluations, and look forward to current and future higher Gold and Silver prices. This always occurs in vertical moves in Gold and in Silver toward the ends of rises. It should send the smaller quality explorers vertical to say the least since reserve revaluations will be part of investor's awakening. Suddenly, a ream of inferred resources will suddenly pop onto the economic list with the change in psychology. This will then become a mirage as the Friends start to short the PM stocks heavily into the coming IT top. Look for GS or one of the big houses to announce PM stocks to the moon right at the top as usual.

This is the last time they can use this cycle of hammering the PM markets into natural resistance on the chart because there will be no more left after this intermediate top. In fact, they will need to be careful this time around since the 'natural resistance point" is no more than trader's expectations for a re-test of the historical highs, one last time. So they will get the PM investors leveraged to all get-out to use against them as usual. I also expect this coming IT correction to be particularly harsh since they must be more careful to get their shorts covered this time around. Why? Because the real parabola will come after the IT bottom. So, the odds are that they will take the PM sector straight down to the lows of the correction on the first wave, then we will likely have the rest of the correction play out as a "running correction." This is exactly how wave 4 of I played out in the fractal series.

All of the above fits well with the LT fractal chart of Gold from the late 70's for this immense parabolic sweep of a giant wave V of some sort, playing out. In fact, it is so much like the 70's chart that it might make one wonder if the same managment was not applied back then. Sabregold had once commented that "This PM market is so different from the general market bull of the 90's because back then any break-out just took off vertically, where the PM break-outs all seem to be "tested to the max." I submit to you that that is part of the mode of "market management." The Fed needs to slow the PM Bull down to defeat the "time component" of the cycle into 2012 to be successful.

By all means, take all of what I have said above with a grain of salt, and please do your own due diligence. Chart, below......So much for the shorter post, eh?


http://aycu25.webshots.com/image/44304/2001260119795518501_rs.jpg (http://allyoucanupload.webshots.com/v/2001260119795518501)

goldstar2001
02-23-2008, 06:53 AM
Check out
http://www.manufacturing.net/News-Chinese-Factories-No-Longer-Cheapest.aspx?menuid=36

....Chinese inflation, meanwhile, has risen to its highest in more than 11 years, jumping 7.1 percent in January, as snowstorms worsened food shortages. The biggest price hikes have been for food, but longer-term pressures on prices for manufactured goods will persist, analysts say.....

Silver Stallion
02-23-2008, 07:09 AM
Nelderand,

That is one hell of a facinating post and beautifully written. Thank you so much for sharing it with us.

Regards
GH

oodat
02-23-2008, 09:05 AM
Nice work Nelderland!! :)

GoldMiser
02-23-2008, 10:21 AM
WOH! Nelderland, you seemed to come out of nowhere with this and it is definitely BRILLIANT! :eek: Thanks for taking the time to post it.

flags
02-23-2008, 10:54 AM
Nelderand....thank you for the response. By expanding on your original comments i think you've provided a much broader perspective. I think we are on the same page for sure. Your opening paragraph i think sums up my thoughts on this in the short term.

"In the big picture they only seek to slow down the rise of Gold and to "use it" to help control liquidity flows since their printing cannot pick direction." Yes...i believe this is exactly the case. Any right now we are in a very precarious situation with the subprime backdrop and the rocking of the markets in August and January. They are pumping liquidity, and they want to be damn sure it doesn't all flow into PM's. However, the rise in the sector is inevitable in spite of their efforts to control it, as opposed to with their full blessing.

"they need to spike Gold and the PM stocks before then, so they can hammer them along with the other resource sector components like oil ahead of that expected bottom. If they do not, then momemtum will pick up speed in the PM sector and such all of the liquidity out of the falling general markets creating a panic that can easily become soup kitchen 1929.". I
see where you are coming from now. I had inferred from your original comments that you were suggesting they wanted the PM sector up as the main market went down, and this i begged to differ on.

Nelderand, your comments and insights have been quite welcomed over the last few months. Please consider starting your own thread in which you can keep a running analysis so to speak. I realize your only drop by from time to time, but that would be fine. Your writing is beautiful and you have a knack for taking complex concepts and expressing them in easy to follow terms. (I especially love the 'deflationary scare bottom in Q4' - lol!). Good gracious...who would believe it but Gold bugs!! This orchestration of the markets has been eye opening for me over the last 2 years to say the least. There is money to be made in understanding the big picture!

harryclam
02-23-2008, 10:58 AM
WOH! Nelderland, you seemed to come out of nowhere with this and it is definitely BRILLIANT! :eek: Thanks for taking the time to post it.

Nah. Check out the Goldrunner series over at Gold Eagle.

Nelderand
02-23-2008, 11:14 AM
Thank you for the kind comments. I am here to learn from Cyclist who seems to have a great ability with his cycle work to time movements in the markets. I did in the past do some substantial writing including a futuristic trading model based on several disciplines to correctly call the intermediate cycle in the HUI in advance of 2005/ 2006, but the work was cut short when I had an office fire in late 2005 that increased my personal responsibilities. I am now getting back to work. I wish I had time to show all of the above with charts because it is all there in the various charts.

Whether you like my work, or not, please keep comments to a minimum because this is Cyclist's thread, and I, like you, want to read him without too many distractions. I usually ask Cyclist if it is ok for me to make lengthy comments, but he appears to be away. I know what it is like when one's work environment becomes distracted by too many comments that run in different directions. In fact, I have lost what I consider an acceptable work environment where I need to be challenged in my work to work well; so I am in the process of moving my work to a private site.
I am currently reviewing my take of the PM markets in an editorial series on GE. History repeats = cycles, IMO. Managed markets are not new and can be put to good use by an investor, IMO. I only wanted to lay out some considerations in the temporary void left by Cyclist. My work is an intermediate and LT nature.

I will try to keep any such distractions down in the future so if you have questions you can contact me by PM or by my e-mail contact on my GE editorials. Cyclist is very good at what he does, and we are here to learn.

Thank you,

Goldrunner

Comet
02-23-2008, 12:13 PM
Thanks for your insights. I have been participating for 20 years in the PM markets and have suspected manipulation by agents of the FED for some time. The question is, when-why-how are they doing it?

Nelderand
02-23-2008, 12:25 PM
Since Cyclist appears to be away, I'll try to find time this afternnoon to summarize my thoughts on the subject.........sorry, busy seeing patients, now.............GR

harryclam
02-23-2008, 01:13 PM
Since Cyclist appears to be away, I'll try to find time this afternnoon to summarize my thoughts on the subject.........sorry, busy seeing patients, now.............GR

;) Go get 'em Doc.

Nelderand
02-24-2008, 02:29 PM
Thanks, again, to the kind comments on my post. I apologize since I "winged it" off the top of my head and did not have time to edit out so many mispellings. I already have the basics of the "how, when, and where" written up. If you look at my LT Gold editorial on GE (which I submitted Tuesday, but still is not out formally) I alluded to about 3 pages that I removed from that editorial as it was getting too long. Those pages described the above in greater detail. I would only need to add some charts for visual reference.

I am in the process of reviewing the many aspects of the PM market in an editorial series on GE. I think I had better delay posting a more thorough discussion of "When, why, and how" until Cyclist returns. I do not wish to alientate him, nor his great insight into the markets.

Cyclist, I again apologize for this intrusion.

GR

rhess595
02-25-2008, 03:42 AM
The chart showing gold going vertical, and apparently over 2000 bucks this year is hilarious. I looked at that, and then didnt bother reading the text. Bullish is one thing but that is pure fantasy and not possible.

I think you were looking at what has already happened to platinum. Those are real charts.

DZB68
02-25-2008, 05:51 AM
I think you were looking at what has already happened to platinum. Those are real charts.

He is saying gold will spike over 2000, you better look again.

Goldmember
02-25-2008, 10:27 AM
The chart showing gold going vertical, and apparently over 2000 bucks this year is hilarious. I looked at that, and then didnt bother reading the text. Bullish is one thing but that is pure fantasy and not possible.

Have you looked at a chart of Rhodium lately? Platinum?

I don't think POG is $2000 this year, but I didn't think Rhodium would go from 5500 to almost 9000 in a year and I wasn't anticipating platinum doubling from last year either.

So to say it is fantasy is a fantasy, and a bit disrespectful.

cheers

swampy
02-25-2008, 10:41 AM
Nelderand. thanks for your update. quick question. cyclist was expecting one more downturn in the markets between mid-feb and early apr and then the big run into june. do you forsee the same thing?

swampy

lowcommotion
02-25-2008, 11:10 AM
The chart showing gold going vertical, and apparently over 2000 bucks this year is hilarious. I looked at that, and then didnt bother reading the text. Bullish is one thing but that is pure fantasy and not possible.

Anything is possible.He who laughs last laughs loudest.
Nobody can predict the future with complete accuracy,
even you.

Bruce7Trader
02-25-2008, 03:41 PM
Was February 14 to be the high or the low?

Climb the wall of worry to profits!

How about that Gammon Gold a short squeeze nearing?:D

Bruce970gold

lowcommotion
02-25-2008, 04:56 PM
Was February 14 to be the high or the low?

Climb the wall of worry to profits!

How about that Gammon Gold a short squeeze nearing?:D

Bruce970gold

I got out of gammon when it dropped to 15 from 19 last year.
Of course I had bought it higher but maybe now it's time
to get back in ?Also wanted to ask you about gas trusts
that you were getting into a couple of weeks back. I have
TUI.UN that was paying .08 per share everv month so I
bought more at 3.05. Now it's 3.90 but pay out has
dropped to .04. What is the story here? It was paying
almost 30% seemed too good to be true! Even now
its about 12%.What is the risk here besides the new
Tax. Are they only expected to last only a few years?
Just thought maybe you would know something more.
Cyclist was touting these last summer and they went down
so I bought some more and now are doing well finally.

Nelderand
02-25-2008, 08:50 PM
"Nelderand. thanks for your update. quick question. cyclist was expecting one more downturn in the markets between mid-feb and early apr and then the big run into june. do you forsee the same thing?"

No. I am using the fractal momentum chart of Silver that I have shown several times, here. The only potential I see for anything other than a very short-term drop would be in the current time-frame we are in. In a recent editorial I wrote on, I believe 1-16, I think I suggested possible PM weakness over "the next week to 2 weeks. After this weakness is over, I think both Gold and Silver will be going vertical much like $Plat did. From memory, Gold to around 1150, then around 1250. If things get out of hand, then off to a Gann number at 1437. Silver to 26 to 27..........into what I have listed as May of 08 since I originally did the work back in 05.

There are many PM charts that upon break-out will have no horizontal resistance left on the chart- only angled resistance that is usually much milder.

Silver.......IMO, above that blue line, PM things get very vertical like SLW will double to 1 1/2 times.....GG into the 70s.......etc......little Silvers to multiples in price..........Silver to 26 to 27.


http://aycu20.webshots.com/image/45779/2002818800973136487_rs.jpg (http://allyoucanupload.webshots.com/v/2002818800973136487)

Gold......I am sticking with my target from 2005 at around 1250, but it could spike all the way to 1437.


http://aycu23.webshots.com/image/44382/2002345036200320829_rs.jpg (http://allyoucanupload.webshots.com/v/2002345036200320829)

I love the risk/ reward of call options over the next few months. My last option entree was in PAL a few weeks, ago, with the June 5s for .45. Time for a curtan call across the PM board, IMO.

Bruce7Trader
02-25-2008, 09:41 PM
I got out of gammon when it dropped to 15 from 19 last year.
Of course I had bought it higher but maybe now it's time
to get back in ?Also wanted to ask you about gas trusts
that you were getting into a couple of weeks back. I have
TUI.UN that was paying .08 per share everv month so I
bought more at 3.05. Now it's 3.90 but pay out has
dropped to .04. What is the story here? It was paying
almost 30% seemed too good to be true! Even now
its about 12%.What is the risk here besides the new
Tax. Are they only expected to last only a few years?
Just thought maybe you would know something more.
Cyclist was touting these last summer and they went down
so I bought some more and now are doing well finally.

I was buying Natural Gas trusts Mid January. I added many from the index and traded them till they have all been sold. I crossed the cash into metal plays, i'm out of the Gas Trusts. I crossed the TUI.UN to FCP. The last few weeks been adding IMG and GAM as well as LUN and GSC.

The markets are fast! I sold my TUI.UN for 3.36 but had a good buy on FCP at 2.27.

Bruce970gold

lowcommotion
02-26-2008, 09:31 AM
I was buying Natural Gas trusts Mid January. I added many from the index and traded them till they have all been sold. I crossed the cash into metal plays, i'm out of the Gas Trusts. I crossed the TUI.UN to FCP. The last few weeks been adding IMG and GAM as well as LUN and GSC.

The markets are fast! I sold my TUI.UN for 3.36 but had a good buy on FCP at 2.27.

Bruce970gold
Thanks for your candid reply.Just wondering if maybe I should keep
some long term. Maybe not as can always get back in easily.
It's up to 3.93 now,wow.Now I wish I had bot more,ha!
Usually when I start feeling like a genius it is a good time to sell.

sceptic
02-26-2008, 01:52 PM
Too bad cyclist is not here :(

I am tempted to get into SRS around 100 as home builders had their day on bad news which totally irrational.

Same for SDS, MZZ etc...

Is market topping?

Since cyclist is not here, what danson and others shorties are thinking? ;)

Wards_Back
02-26-2008, 02:37 PM
Too bad cyclist is not here :(

I am tempted to get into SRS around 100 as home builders had their day on bad news which totally irrational.

Same for SDS, MZZ etc...

Is market topping?

Since cyclist is not here, what danson and others shorties are thinking? ;)

Sorry, Danson told us to stop the "Brain farts."

Notice how quiet it's been since?

sceptic
02-26-2008, 03:13 PM
Sorry, Danson told us to stop the "Brain farts."

Notice how quiet it's been since?

Maybe we should keep this thread for stock recs and general market timing issues (hence the name cyclist ;))

Danson might have been a little bit rude but he was somewhat right.

Can we go back to the core of why we are here?

Nelderand
02-26-2008, 09:55 PM
Well, it looks like the "above the angled blue line verticality" I posted last night worked out, today. From somewhere in here, we will likely see a bit of a consolidation, but I don't worry about such things since my investments are meant to be more intermediate-term in nature. Still, I shorten up my time-frames in an expected momentum run like we are obviously in.

GR

Majic
02-27-2008, 12:45 AM
Can we go back to the core of why we are here?

Yes, please.
I want to hear insight on what gold and the HUI are going to do in the near future - this week, next week.

I wish Cyclist would return...

danson
02-27-2008, 06:20 AM
hope cyclist is ok... didn't mean to offend anyone of you guys.

I am no cyclist or anything..
but yes I finally got some SRS and SKF yesterday at the 102 price range in order to hedge my huge silver positions. concerning stocks I am holding only ORV..

generally main markets (SP500) are still locked between 1380 and 1320, a break either way would help to know what's going to happen. I personally believe that we will at least retest the Jan lows, and most probably go lower.. but on the other hand this is the consensus now, so it might just not happen....

as I do have some spare time at the moment I tried myself as a trader with some play money.. Shorting RIMM since Monday (110).. I don't advise this though.. more like playing lottery..

http://www.wulffmorgenthaler.com/striphandler.ashx?stripid=ac50f03e-8eef-4e4f-ab62-4a49a1682143

clayson
02-27-2008, 11:11 AM
here goes EUR/USD, the way Gold price is held is so so managed last days

Nelderand
02-28-2008, 12:46 AM
Tried to respond to your PM, but was unsuccessful. If you want a response you might try me at goldrunner44 in the aol world. Or, I have another new editorial out at GE that lists the contact at the bottom.

swampy
02-28-2008, 08:56 AM
Hey guys, this is an off topic question but i dont know where or who to ask this. I have a bunch of old gold jewelery (22karat stuff).

1) Is there a general formula for how much gold is in there? (ie. 4oz at 22k = xx oz of pure gold)
2) Is there a basic melt value for this based on current spot? (ie. 75% of spot price or something)
3) Where in the best place to sell the jewelery? (i'm in the toronto area) I assume pawn shops totally rip you off.

Thanks.
Much appreciated.

Swampy

denaliguide
02-28-2008, 10:39 AM
I think there is 24 karats of fineness. 12 troy oz to the pound.

my buddy told me not to pay more than 95% of spot for old coins, so you figure what that'd be for jewelry, I THINK, but i am thinking that its about 90% of spot by weight, more or less. Learn the "bargaining" culture, where one step back is worth at least 10% [more if your selling, less if your buying].

I am in ottawa, so I am sure the whole toronto, ottawa, montreal thing applies, they will be more or less the same.

Rip you off ? Well lets say, your ignorance is their harvest, so beware !!

anyway, thats what I know......

dg:D

Hey guys, this is an off topic question but i dont know where or who to ask this. I have a bunch of old gold jewelery (22karat stuff).

1) Is there a general formula for how much gold is in there? (ie. 4oz at 22k = xx oz of pure gold)
2) Is there a basic melt value for this based on current spot? (ie. 75% of spot price or something)
3) Where in the best place to sell the jewelery? (i'm in the toronto area) I assume pawn shops totally rip you off.

Thanks.
Much appreciated.

Swampy

Nelderand
02-28-2008, 12:19 PM
Scrap Gold.........If it were me, I'd look in the phonebook for a couple of the larger Dental Labs in your area. Call them and ask to speak to the owner or manager. Ask him your question. First, the very large companies that supply the labs with Gold for them to fabricate Crowns with usually take scrap and pay you for it. In the past, some have even paid in cash. Other times, they will only take it, remove the Gold content to weigh, then pay you on some percentage of the Gold, but I think it is usually high. A very large company like that tends to be very honest since their name is very important to them.

If you ask a few labs, you might find that some of these guys who own their own labs are very sophisticated in what you ask, but trust for one individual might be an issue. Thus, if you speak to a few of them, you might find someone that can direct you thoughts.

If you live by a big city that has a "district" where diamonds come in for the jewelry market, there will be many business (sometimes all in one large building) that deal in wholesale jewelry. You will find that the guys from India come there to trade finished chain for scrap. If you find the right guy, he can handle it for you easily. Again, trust for the individual would be the issue. An example of the above is in St. Louis, MO. Gotta run.

GR

tothemoon
03-02-2008, 03:00 PM
Hi,

I read Dave Petch's latest article and he's predicting the HUI to top out in Jan 2009 and the Juniors to continue the advance until March / April of that year. That would make this bull run almost a year long.

Does this also match with your work?

I also wanted to ask if we're in wave III or starting wave V?


Thanks greatly for your thoughts on this.

Nelderand
03-03-2008, 12:38 AM
Personally, I am expecting a very aggressive run higher much like that of $Plat.......at least to HUI 780, but to da moon if we get the full monty. V just posted a copy of my editorial in the 23:00 hour on GE. It covers the HUI index.

Going vertical usually means a 5th wave that is limited in time at this Elliot Wave degree, IMO. Thus I'd say June........maybe out as long as August, but can't see it going further at this time. My thoughts are top of Wave III.

panzer
03-03-2008, 12:06 PM
Personally, I am expecting a very aggressive run higher much like that of $Plat.......at least to HUI 780, but to da moon if we get the full monty. V just posted a copy of my editorial in the 23:00 hour on GE. It covers the HUI index.

Going vertical usually means a 5th wave that is limited in time at this Elliot Wave degree, IMO. Thus I'd say June........maybe out as long as August, but can't see it going further at this time. My thoughts are top of Wave III.

Nelderand, does it bother you that the message boards are overwhelming bullish....I see at another board (I won't mention the name), they predict how gold will end this week, and the overwhelming majority of posters all are predicting a much higher close by friday.....to me this is very worrisome. Previously it has been a sign of a top....

panzer
03-03-2008, 12:08 PM
Also everybody is assuming that we will just blow through POG 1000, or so it seems......and the HUI is up 60% since the august crisis, but even 50% in 6 months is a ton.....

harryclam
03-03-2008, 04:54 PM
Nelderand, does it bother you that the message boards are overwhelming bullish....I see at another board (I won't mention the name), they predict how gold will end this week, and the overwhelming majority of posters all are predicting a much higher close by friday.....to me this is very worrisome. Previously it has been a sign of a top....

Sample size is way too small. Kitco traffic is a pittance compared to what it was 5 years ago. No one talks about Gold and if they do they want to know if I know someplace they can sell old jewelry. No worries mate.

Igor01
03-03-2008, 06:29 PM
Sample size is way too small. Kitco traffic is a pittance compared to what it was 5 years ago. No one talks about Gold and if they do they want to know if I know someplace they can sell old jewelry. No worries mate.

That may be true, the MSM is finally waking up. I've seen a program on CNN on Saturday, the guy was very bullish on gold, dissing Fed and forecasting a long term bull in metals. They even had an interview with the gentleman that runs www.shadowstats.com Now how freaky is that?

JoeBjr
03-03-2008, 09:33 PM
March turn dates from IDT:


March turn dates (tried to post this last night) -- IDT, 21:30:07 03/03/08 Mon
This is beginning to sound like a broken record, but, all turn dates are positive for gold for the month of March. I was initially concerned about March 18, but, on closer inspection I am calling it positive (with volatility around it). Given that April options on gold expire on the 21st, I expect that the boyz will try to take it down that week. I think the period from the 18th until the 21st will provide the highest probability for a correction this month. The small turn dates early in the month may also provide opportunity for weakness between the turn dates but as we approach the 18th we should be some strength. All in all it looks like another positive month for gold. The dates are as follows:

3/3 + (large)
3/9 + (small)
3/11 + (medium)
3/12 + (small)
3/16 + (medium)
3/18 + (large)
3/22 + (small)
3/23 + (large)
3/27 + (small)
4/01 + (medium)

bluegold
03-03-2008, 09:57 PM
Thx Joe. Always interested in getting others insights / views. I dont really track IDT's work, mind if I ask how reliable his turndates are? I cant quite remember his turndates for feb, but I do remember quite a few posters (including Cylcist) calling for a huge pop in early feb and collapse there after. Seems the gold price did just the exact opposite..

March turn dates from IDT:


March turn dates (tried to post this last night) -- IDT, 21:30:07 03/03/08 Mon
This is beginning to sound like a broken record, but, all turn dates are positive for gold for the month of March. I was initially concerned about March 18, but, on closer inspection I am calling it positive (with volatility around it). Given that April options on gold expire on the 21st, I expect that the boyz will try to take it down that week. I think the period from the 18th until the 21st will provide the highest probability for a correction this month. The small turn dates early in the month may also provide opportunity for weakness between the turn dates but as we approach the 18th we should be some strength. All in all it looks like another positive month for gold. The dates are as follows:

3/3 + (large)
3/9 + (small)
3/11 + (medium)
3/12 + (small)
3/16 + (medium)
3/18 + (large)
3/22 + (small)
3/23 + (large)
3/27 + (small)
4/01 + (medium)

JoeBjr
03-03-2008, 10:12 PM
Thx Joe. Always interested in getting others insights / views. I dont really track IDT's work, mind if I ask how reliable his turndates are? I cant quite remember his turndates for feb, but I do remember quite a few posters (including Cylcist) calling for a huge pop in early feb and collapse there after. Seems the gold price did just the exact opposite..

I've been posting IDT's dates for the past six months or so in this thread, if you go back you can look at them and check his track record. From the past four years that I have followed him, he has better than a 95% track record.

ajnock
03-04-2008, 03:26 AM
the probability of all those march turn dates being positive is practically nil

after this big runup we just had the more likely scenario is that 3/4s of them will be negative

i just bought march 70 puts on aem and march 20 puts on swc

the most bullish intermediate term scenario would be for a pullback here in preparation for an excellent may spike

funfun
03-04-2008, 04:25 AM
I've been posting IDT's dates for the past six months or so in this thread, if you go back you can look at them and check his track record. From the past four years that I have followed him, he has better than a 95% track record.

please kindly explain IDT

JoeBjr
03-04-2008, 06:24 AM
please kindly explain IDT

"IDT" is an original member of the old Kitco forum before the format change. He now post on another board. Back on the old forum he posted his turn dates based on two proprietary models. Model one tells him the date and it's strength, the second model tells him the polarity (positive/negative).

Go back in this thread and you can find a link to a PDF with his turn dates from years ago on the old Kitco board. If you are interested, compare those forecast with what actually happened on those dates.

Lord Lister
03-04-2008, 06:31 AM
What is a turn date?

JoeBjr
03-04-2008, 07:14 AM
What is a turn date?

For chartist, a turn date is a point in time where the price direction of an assest, turns and changes direction.

pawnshopguy
03-04-2008, 07:52 AM
this is crazy when will there be a downturn , will gold get through a 1000 and then keep going ......

Nelderand
03-04-2008, 08:32 AM
Having a major computer problem since yesterday afternoon so am on a backup. Just wrote a very long reply, but Ktco ate it. Bottom line.....expect Gold to continue to "melt up" at the same slope on the weekly chart to about 1130, then probably spike to about 1250.......BUT that is on a weekly chart so will be ST corrections along the way. Silver.....should have a high level consolidation coming in.........but will run to 26/27 with the potential for a spike higher. Think the HUI will be going more vertical as in early 2002 with many small stocks simply exploding higher along with explorers like SSRI. Sorry, I had charts all attached with explanations written out, but the post went "poof."

GR

JoeBjr
03-04-2008, 09:49 AM
this is crazy when will there be a downturn , will gold get through a 1000 and then keep going ......

Funny you ask, for after posting his turn dates for March, and given that they were all positive, someone asked where the next 'negative' turn date would fall? His answer?

April 10

Thenamir
03-04-2008, 11:48 AM
Hmmm. I'll have to look more closely at this "turn date" prognostication method. I do note, however, that at the moment POG is down almost $20 from yesterday's close, and 3/04 is not mentioned as a turn date...but the day is still young, and there is much time to make up lost ground. I wonder if Stanford Bullion is still offering their GAE-at-spot deal...

swampy
03-04-2008, 12:35 PM
Hmmm. I'll have to look more closely at this "turn date" prognostication method. I do note, however, that at the moment POG is down almost $20 from yesterday's close, and 3/04 is not mentioned as a turn date...but the day is still young, and there is much time to make up lost ground. I wonder if Stanford Bullion is still offering their GAE-at-spot deal...

If we just look at the major turn dates, then you have yesterday as the high (good for now) with a low set in March 18 time frame. A lot of cycles converge around the March 18-22 dates including a Marty Armstrong low point. So my best guess is have a good correction until then and then maybe stay flat until early april or go up from March 18 and then retest the lows in early april. Thats for POG so i dont know if gold stocks will set new lows in early april or not.

JMHO

swampy

JoeBjr
03-04-2008, 01:09 PM
Hmmm. I'll have to look more closely at this "turn date" prognostication method. I do note, however, that at the moment POG is down almost $20 from yesterday's close, and 3/04 is not mentioned as a turn date...but the day is still young, and there is much time to make up lost ground. I wonder if Stanford Bullion is still offering their GAE-at-spot deal...

Understand turn dates. IDT had 3/3 as a large positive turn date. That means on 3/3 we would see gold make a large move to the upside and top, from which it's price would then turn and move downwards.

Exactly what happened.

Take a look at the three day Kitco chart on it's front page and you'll see that the last high was yesterday at 10am est. Even today's high did not surpass it.

Conversely, his negative turn dates, denote a bottom from which $gold will then turn and move upwards.

Nelderand
03-04-2008, 01:36 PM
Are you serious? IDT's "positive turndates" are supposed to be tops, and his negative turndates are bottoms? I thought he got whipsawed on the turndate where GATA was doing the ad?

TIA,

GR

JoeBjr
03-04-2008, 01:59 PM
Are you serious? IDT's "positive turndates" are supposed to be tops, and his negative turndates are bottoms? I thought he got whipsawed on the turndate where GATA was doing the ad?

TIA,

GR


Yes, a positive followed by a negative means gold tops on the positive date and then falls into the negative date, from which it then turns and moves up into the next date. Given all the positive dates he has for March, I can't help but think today's move is bogus.

Now, the only excpetion are "inside out days", where the price makes a sharp move in both directions, putting in a top and bottom or a bottom and top, on the same day. I've seen a few of those, but for the most part they are rare.

Lastly, if a positive date in the future is very large, it will have an effect on the dates leading up to it. An example would be a negative date won't be as big or the recovery from a fall would be short in it's duration.

from two months ago:



>> IDT, 17:59:18 01/06/08 Sun
>>
>> You are absolutely correct. I think that we will be completing wave 3 in
>> Dec 08 and 80 was a wave 5 top. My thinking goes as follows: 1. $2500
>> gold only brings us back to the 80 high adjusted with the CPI for
>> inflation. And we all know what a joke the CPI is. 2. The way my model
>> works is that the impact of a turn date increases exponentially as we
>> near the date. My DEC '08 turn date has been one of two turn dates
>> attracting gold price since 2001. Its impact has been growing stronger as
>> we go along, as evidenced by a, the move since August, and b, the short
>> duration of the correction this fall (it lasted 2 weeks while a
>> comparable correction lasted over one month in the fall of 1978. It took
>> 3 months to exceed the previous high and we did it about 6 weeks this
>> time) 3. The value that I obtained in my model for the 1980 high turn
>> date was on the order of 300,000. What I report here as very large turn
>> dates are on the order of 150,000. My Dec '08 value is over 2 million,
>> about the size of the one associated with the collapse of the continental
>> currency in 1781.
>>
>> The caveats are as follows. Its unusual for the Wave 3 turn date to be
>> larger than the Wave 5 turn date (due in 2014). The last time in history
>> that the model had a comparable configuration there were no markets or
>> data for me to use to make a reasonable comparison. Finally, and this is
>> a difficult one to get your mind around, the model doesn't predict gold
>> price turn dates. It predicts something else and gold price is the best
>> indicator. It predicts something more akin to alternating inflationary
>> and deflationary forces. Gold isn't used as money anymore. It does trade
>> freely though with heavy manipulation. So, if the powers that be want to
>> keep shorting it for another year, perhaps we won't see a lot happen. I
>> think gold should be very nearly the same in price as platinum, but, its
>> not. Can it make up some of that lost ground in the ensuing panic and
>> turmoil that lie just ahead? I think it will. But, I'm guessing. The
>> model supports the notion, but, as I said there are other considerations.
>> So, my $2000 figure is a compromise number based on all of the above
>> considerations.

Thenamir
03-04-2008, 02:35 PM
I stand corrected. I too misunderstood the meaning of the term "turn date", and thank you JoeBjr for that correction. I shall now take the list of dates provided and see if it all holds true for a few turns.

I admit to being fascinated by the theory that general, large-scale behaviours of humanity can be predicted with some accuracy by mathematical formulas (Kondriatev waves, etc.). Has anyone ever read Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" series, especially the eponymous first one? This almost sounds like his "psychohistorical analysis" as described therein.

denaliguide
03-04-2008, 03:15 PM
Thx Joe. Always interested in getting others insights / views. I dont really track IDT's work, mind if I ask how reliable his turndates are? I cant quite remember his turndates for feb, but I do remember quite a few posters (including Cylcist) calling for a huge pop in early feb and collapse there after. Seems the gold price did just the exact opposite..

:cool: for me, it seems that if the price keeps topping, and then declining, well isnt that bearish. Are not tops bearish and bottoms bullish?:confused:

As u can see if you can link into my VIRAL image, you will see the XAU price goes up in the first part of Mar, and declines in the send part of Mar. Given what I see from IDT, as quoted here, I find it hard to understand. My posts on both my private board and another board only represent what VIRAL & Bradley manifest, with lead times adjusted by comparing the Indicator MACD to the Subject MACD.

VIRAL is the Projector / Indicator value here, and XAU is the subject.

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1649/viral2uy5.jpg
By denaliguide2nd (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/denaliguide2nd) at 2008-02-27

Please note this chart contained herein, was created on 2/27, 5+ days ago

dg

panzer
03-04-2008, 08:01 PM
Having a major computer problem since yesterday afternoon so am on a backup. Just wrote a very long reply, but Ktco ate it. Bottom line.....expect Gold to continue to "melt up" at the same slope on the weekly chart to about 1130, then probably spike to about 1250.......BUT that is on a weekly chart so will be ST corrections along the way. Silver.....should have a high level consolidation coming in.........but will run to 26/27 with the potential for a spike higher. Think the HUI will be going more vertical as in early 2002 with many small stocks simply exploding higher along with explorers like SSRI. Sorry, I had charts all attached with explanations written out, but the post went "poof."

GR

Nellie, thanks for your response and sorry to hear about the computer vaporizing your work. I have had that happen to me so many times. i simply cannot and will not bet on a melt up AT THIS TIME. I think it is too early. April yes, the first two weeks of March, no. I think we backtrack here for a while. Here is a terrific article I found on Kitco, balanced and really gives good advice on the current situation. I tend to make large sums of money, and also lose large sums of money, usually following the bull right up the ladder, and getting really hammered....it is not going to happen to me this time. I look for silver expecially to come back to its trendline, consolidate and then move higher sometime in later March. By the way, Kilbach, the author of this article, suggests to try and keep it simple. Most of the times I lose lots of dough, I get caught up in message boards, read the bulls, try to decipher the systems (like the trend change system you and others have tried to explain earlier today,etc..), and I always come away, having let the big fish off the hook, saying to myself, "If I would think and use common sense more, and stay away from the message boards, it probably wouldn't have happend." Anyway, here is the Kitco article: hxxp://www.kitco.com/ind/kilbach/feb292008.html

goldstar2001
03-04-2008, 08:15 PM
Looks like we are taking a momentary pause in an extended climb.

flags
03-04-2008, 08:58 PM
If we just look at the major turn dates, then you have yesterday as the high (good for now) with a low set in March 18 time frame. A lot of cycles converge around the March 18-22 dates including a Marty Armstrong low point.
JMHO

swampy

swampy...i was thinking along these lines as well. Lots of activity that week...St Pats day, Easter Friday, options expiry, spring equinox, and Fed rate decision. Seems about right for a low...maybe even a small rally heading into the Easter holiday.

funfun
03-04-2008, 09:14 PM
"IDT" is an original member of the old Kitco forum before the format change. He now post on another board. Back on the old forum he posted his turn dates based on two proprietary models. Model one tells him the date and it's strength, the second model tells him the polarity (positive/negative).

Go back in this thread and you can find a link to a PDF with his turn dates from years ago on the old Kitco board. If you are interested, compare those forecast with what actually happened on those dates.

thanks for the info JB

Nelderand
03-05-2008, 04:42 AM
" i simply cannot and will not bet on a melt up AT THIS TIME. I think it is too early. April yes, the first two weeks of March, no. I think we backtrack here for a while. Here is a terrific article I found on Kitco, balanced and really gives good advice on the current situation. I tend to make large sums of money, and also lose large sums of money, usually following the bull right up the ladder, and getting really hammered....it is not going to happen to me this time."

Reference points become very important, IMO. In that post I think I clearly said (or it could have been the long post that disappeared) that my work is intermediate-term in nature so it is developed on weekly charts. Thus, a ST move like today will simply not affect that longer-term weekly chart so price will look like a "melt-up" on the chart in retrospect as price continues to pretty well run straight up the directional line. Thus, a few weeks would not look like much on the charts that I intentionally use. I could move to daily charts, but it would not fit my personal investing strategy and daily time constraints.

Nelderand
03-05-2008, 04:47 AM
Thanks for the summary of IDT's system as the whole thing makes more sense, now. When IDT speaks of price being "affected more" by a turndate as the price of Gold gets closer, my way of thinking is that the corrections get shorter in a parabolic Gold Bull as time goes on.

I also find it interesting that the system is really based on some model of inflation/ deflation instead of Gold, itself. I would have one question for IDT regarding that notion and final turndate out in 2014. If the Fed backs the Dollar in the 2012 time-frame, would that not disrupt his system if it is based on an inflation model where the US Dollar had no backing?

TIA,

GR

JoeBjr
03-05-2008, 07:57 AM
Thanks for the summary of IDT's system as the whole thing makes more sense, now. When IDT speaks of price being "affected more" by a turndate as the price of Gold gets closer, my way of thinking is that the corrections get shorter in a parabolic Gold Bull as time goes on.

I also find it interesting that the system is really based on some model of inflation/ deflation instead of Gold, itself. I would have one question for IDT regarding that notion and final turndate out in 2014. If the Fed backs the Dollar in the 2012 time-frame, would that not disrupt his system if it is based on an inflation model where the US Dollar had no backing?

TIA,

GR


I would think he would agree with the short corrections in a parabolic move no matter how large the negative turn date during that move.

He himself is confused with his final wave V number. It's not a large as the Wave III number, which comes in December of this year. So who knows for sure what this portends. His final wave V is 2014, while Sinclair is sure that in 2011 we go back onto some variation of the gold standard. Again, who to believe or what to conclude? Me personally, I toss all of these projections in the same bin to come up with a generalization of what will most likely happen and I have yet to see a reason that this gold bull is anywhere near an end. Buy well run miners with 2 mill oz minimum in the ground reserves, in secure areas of the world (as secure as they can be), with an operating mine or soon to be operating mine and you should do well, if not very well. From time to time cash out the shares and buy physical on the dips. Be it Cyclist, IDT, Petch, Sinclair, Puplava or others, I've yet to see any of them give me reasons to abandon or alter this strategy.

ljscott
03-06-2008, 05:18 PM
I wonder if Cyclist managed to visit ORV as he stated he was intending.

Bit of bashing managements abilility to move the cash into a good project on Stockhouse.

Other people saying that it is a cash cow, with possibility of extending current mine life.

Anybody with thoughts on what was one of cyclists top picks????

tothemoon
03-06-2008, 05:46 PM
Anybody with thoughts on what was one of cyclists top picks????

Not sure about ORV because it's lagging now but...

Here are the one's I bought:

Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM-T 73.60 +50.4%
Alamos Gold AGI-T 8.00 +37.5%
EXMIN Resources EXM-X 0.30 -15.5%
Impact Silver IPT-X 1.64 -3.5%
Orvana Minerals ORV-T 0.74 -14.0%
Semafo Inc. SMF-T 1.47 +54.7%
Vangold Resources Ltd. VAN-X 0.49 +5.4%

cloak and dagger
03-06-2008, 06:26 PM
pdp.t is going to take another run to 15 just thought I'd let you know like last time, cheers!

Latviski
03-06-2008, 10:05 PM
Where the devil is Cyclist?! We're at the edge of a main market cliff today and...

That being said, I am out of goldstocks totally as I think risk now outweighs reward - cashed out large position in EGO as Kisladag mine reopened. Otherwisie just shorting the living hell out of the S&P.
Bernanke is in a vice now, and rate cuts are going to be moderated much more severely. Bond market will decide. I wouldn't even count out a bump UP in the FFT in the near term.

1300 last support S&P for a ways down. :cool: SDS has been a blessing since Jan. Cashed out today, but will be back in very soon.

USD/YEN is spelling trouble; on a side note - don't know if anyone else caught it on Bloomberg 'benchmark currency rates' today, but there was a bad print (USD/YEN was 98.x, EUR/USD 1.61, GBP/USD 2.10)! I about blew a mouthful of coffee across the room when I saw it. Made a few calls and verified on international sites and was happy (actually sad since I was heavily short today) to see that it was just a bad print.

Perhaps an omen of things to come? :cool:

La Armada
03-06-2008, 11:17 PM
Where the devil is Cyclist?! We're at the edge of a main market cliff today and...

That being said, I am out of goldstocks totally as I think risk now outweighs reward - cashed out large position in EGO as Kisladag mine reopened. Otherwisie just shorting the living hell out of the S&P.
Bernanke is in a vice now, and rate cuts are going to be moderated much more severely. Bond market will decide. I wouldn't even count out a bump UP in the FFT in the near term.

1300 last support S&P for a ways down. :cool: SDS has been a blessing since Jan. Cashed out today, but will be back in very soon.

USD/YEN is spelling trouble; on a side note - don't know if anyone else caught it on Bloomberg 'benchmark currency rates' today, but there was a bad print (USD/YEN was 98.x, EUR/USD 1.61, GBP/USD 2.10)! I about blew a mouthful of coffee across the room when I saw it. Made a few calls and verified on international sites and was happy (actually sad since I was heavily short today) to see that it was just a bad print.

Perhaps an omen of things to come? :cool:

Taking abaut bad prints...the other day CNNMoney was reporting on their live quotes the S&P down 99% at 130.

Now that's something I wanna see.:eek:

Latviski
03-07-2008, 12:32 AM
Taking abaut bad prints...the other day CNNMoney was reporting on their live quotes the S&P down 99% at 130.

Now that's something I wanna see.:eek:


Armada -

I noticed that as well; decimal places were 'misplaced', causing some very interesting prints; all major indices were briefly at 'nuclear holocaust' levels.

clayson
03-10-2008, 09:38 AM
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120494525597321677.html

Bruce7Trader
03-10-2008, 02:03 PM
Not sure about ORV because it's lagging now but...

Here are the one's I bought:

Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM-T 73.60 +50.4%
Alamos Gold AGI-T 8.00 +37.5%
EXMIN Resources EXM-X 0.30 -15.5%
Impact Silver IPT-X 1.64 -3.5%
Orvana Minerals ORV-T 0.74 -14.0%
Semafo Inc. SMF-T 1.47 +54.7%
Vangold Resources Ltd. VAN-X 0.49 +5.4%

Semafo is the only stock on this list that i would add and add now. Orvana i would be selling all shares at current levels. ORV over priced when looking at the value in the market. ORV going back to .40 cents to be in line with the value in the market today.

Bruce970gold

tothemoon
03-10-2008, 09:01 PM
Semafo is the only stock on this list that i would add and add now. Bruce970gold

I actually sold most of these a few weeks back.

Bruce I wanted to ask why you singled out SMF?

We're holding 970 just as Cyclist predicted. I sure hope Cyclist returns soon because we're reaching his panic time frame. It would be nice to get his thoughts how to play things now...

Hrysophilos
03-10-2008, 09:27 PM
Semafo is the only stock on this list that i would add and add now. Orvana i would be selling all shares at current levels. ORV over priced when looking at the value in the market. ORV going back to .40 cents to be in line with the value in the market today.

Bruce970gold

...and is earning a 6-7 cent profit every quarter...as much as I'd love to load up on Orvana at 40 cents, I don't think it's gonna happen Bruce

Latviski
03-10-2008, 10:35 PM
I actually sold most of these a few weeks back.

Bruce I wanted to ask why you singled out SMF?

We're holding 970 just as Cyclist predicted. I sure hope Cyclist returns soon because we're reaching his panic time frame. It would be nice to get his thoughts how to play things now...


Would love to hear from Cyclist soon as well!

My take on things is that global economies are now setting up new (and unfavourable) imbalances (i.e. currency). Eurozone is holding rates pat, we are lowering, Aussies are raising. That doesn't end well. Can't imagine that Germany is thrilled w/ 1.54 Eur/USD as exports will hurt.
Yen is strengthening at a feverish pace, and financials...well, they're going to get flushed even harder than before IMO. Bond market seems to be saying another rate cut on the way, but who cares. It's not helping anyone, or equity markets, and credit is FROZEN!

Cyclist was bullish on nat gas way back last year (around $5-6/mmbtu...it is now at $10/mmbtu). Nice call.

I think financials are going to be squeezed soon (mark to market anyone?) and this is going to show some real colours. Expecting some BK's, and many fire sales...the bottom is definitly not in. What shenanigans come along the way, who knows. Fitch and MBIA are having words, and essentially all ratings agencies have become a laughingstock. AAA means nothing any more. Anyone following TMA? :cool:

As for gold...if competitive currency devaluation is what comes next...could be another strong move upwards. For me, however, the technicals have gone too parabolic so I'm only shorting the main indexes.

This is a bona-fide bear market. Tread lightly!

Rocco
03-10-2008, 10:58 PM
Would love to hear from Cyclist soon as well!

My take on things is that global economies are now setting up new (and unfavourable) imbalances (i.e. currency). Eurozone is holding rates pat, we are lowering, Aussies are raising. That doesn't end well. Can't imagine that Germany is thrilled w/ 1.54 Eur/USD as exports will hurt.
Yen is strengthening at a feverish pace, and financials...well, they're going to get flushed even harder than before IMO. Bond market seems to be saying another rate cut on the way, but who cares. It's not helping anyone, or equity markets, and credit is FROZEN!

Cyclist was bullish on nat gas way back last year (around $5-6/mmbtu...it is now at $10/mmbtu). Nice call.

I think financials are going to be squeezed soon (mark to market anyone?) and this is going to show some real colours. Expecting some BK's, and many fire sales...the bottom is definitly not in. What shenanigans come along the way, who knows. Fitch and MBIA are having words, and essentially all ratings agencies have become a laughingstock. AAA means nothing any more. Anyone following TMA? :cool:

As for gold...if competitive currency devaluation is what comes next...could be another strong move upwards. For me, however, the technicals have gone too parabolic so I'm only shorting the main indexes.

This is a bona-fide bear market. Tread lightly!

I think shorting indexes is a great play now...Dow and S&P are pretty good shorts,though cautious with all the news and Fed meeting coming up...I've heard the Germans are gonna love $1.63 Euro so much,that they're gonna give us their gas prices in return...lol...The June contracts are gonna be so much fun..lol

Latviski
03-11-2008, 12:51 AM
I think shorting indexes is a great play now...Dow and S&P are pretty good shorts,though cautious with all the news and Fed meeting coming up...I've heard the Germans are gonna love $1.63 Euro so much,that they're gonna give us their gas prices in return...lol...The June contracts are gonna be so much fun..lol

My shorts are daily (scalping a few dollars on SDS/ DXD/ etc.) and weekly (5+ dollar moves) only;I never frontrun the fed meetings and went 100% cash midday Friday as we were headed towards swinglows. That being said, I hope they cut hard, get a quick spike up in SPX which I will gladly short. Would love a bounce to the 50 DMA. As I mentioned before, it's obvious now that these cuts are doing nothing as lending is still locked tight. Look out below when they are forced to raise...

Any contracts several months out are a good play IMO (on the short side). June is a great timeframe.

Would like to hear Danson's take on Eurozone if he is still reading....

cjppjc
03-13-2008, 01:36 PM
...and is earning a 6-7 cent profit every quarter...as much as I'd love to load up on Orvana at 40 cents, I don't think it's gonna happen Bruce

So much cash in the bank and earnings to boot. Couldn't stand the slow drip down in this bull market. Probably be sorry. But it's hard to hold with all my others doing so well. (except NAK)

Bruce7Trader
03-13-2008, 01:53 PM
How are your IMG shares doing that you added @ 7.11 and 7.16 Bruce?

Bruce " oh they are little bit green..."

Bruce how about your Gammon gold how is that doing?

Bruce "Oh pretty just ok my friend!!"

Bruce970gold:)

Bruce So you loaded up on ELD average at 6.03 what you think?

Bruce "Da ya i hold dem"

ljscott
03-13-2008, 06:53 PM
I hope in all sincerity that he is ok. I miss his posting and look forward to his return from where ever it is. Geographical, emotional seperation ??????

Latviski
03-13-2008, 10:33 PM
I hope in all sincerity that he is ok. I miss his posting and look forward to his return from where ever it is. Geographical, emotional seperation ??????

I'm kind of worried about him too...I hope he's just too rich to care about posting any more. :cool:

Too many islands to buy...not enough time!

clayson
03-14-2008, 03:28 PM
does DOW close positive today ? lllooooooooolllllllllllllllllllll

Hrysophilos
03-14-2008, 06:07 PM
So much cash in the bank and earnings to boot. Couldn't stand the slow drip down in this bull market. Probably be sorry. But it's hard to hold with all my others doing so well. (except NAK)

...you need to have the patience of a donkey to hold on to the Gold juniors...the junior Golds are still getting sold down and the "hot money" is piling into the senior Golds, making them grossly overvalued, compared to the producing juniors..."dumb money" is chasing stocks like Agnico Eagle, trading at 80 times earnings and selling juniors like Orvana that's trading at 2.5 times earnings and sitting on a US$56 million cash cushion, which keeps growing every quarter...I'd rather have my investment protected by a cash cushion...cyclist mentioned that he was taking a tour of Orvana's operations sometime this year, perhaps he's there now, anyway, it'd be good to hear his take on the company if/when he comes back

stodmyk
03-14-2008, 09:30 PM
yeah, I'm another one of the folks who (happily), after diligence, followed Cyclist into the ORV stock. It should have moved by now, but it's protected as much as could be expected by all that cash on hand...

On another note, my TET.un gasser has moved big time in the past week after a loooooong hold sub-bottom. Here's hoping it continues!

longj
03-14-2008, 11:23 PM
I am thinking sort of like IDT at this point, but have a somewhat less agressive opinion. I think if you look at the 1975-1979 gold chart, at the botom there was about 100 in mid 1976. From there to late 1979 we went to 420 and retraced to 390 in late 1979 after about 3 months of consolidation. If you take the gold bottom this time as around 250 for our present rally and multiply that by the same ratios you get $1050 for a peak with a retrace to $950 followed by a blow off top of $2000 within about five months from now. Look at the kitco historical charts.....

Nelderand
03-16-2008, 08:21 PM
This is what I was trying to convey about the $Gold chart. That last correction did not even register on the weekly chart........just a melt-up, then kaboom! Look closely at early 2006 where $Gold moved above the lower black angled line, consolidated a bit, then blasted off. The only problem with this chart is that I did not have a chart going back far enough in time so I might have picked a "lessor" resistance point for line placement. Ie., $Gold might spike higher than 1250ish............that's why I included the Gann number up around 1437...............

GR

http://aycu39.webshots.com/image/49358/2005942700745942400_rs.jpg

cloak and dagger
03-16-2008, 08:44 PM
Interesting morning on Monday!!!

MrSmith
03-16-2008, 08:46 PM
Market Crash Tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cloak and dagger
03-16-2008, 08:51 PM
we live in interesting times!:eek:

tothemoon
03-16-2008, 10:10 PM
I hope in all sincerity that he is ok. I miss his posting and look forward to his return from where ever it is. Geographical, emotional seperation ??????

I really hope you can join us again soon. We would really like to have your insight now.

Gold over 1030, emergency rate cut, Nikkei down almost 500 pts, more bank runs looming...

Tomorrow should be very interesting!!

GoldNuggetBug
03-16-2008, 11:33 PM
To produce gold new gold in the 90s it cost about 5$to 12$ per gram, Gold was selling @ 260$ to 340$ oz, average production cost 10$ per gram, this @ 3 % profit margin for the producer. Some survive and some do not. When fiat money was at its strongest point.

New Gold producer with so much technical skill and engineering know how today. It still cost between 16$ to 26$ per gram and rising to produce new gold.

Today @ an average production cost 21$ gold should be at 2037$.


Plus big gold market consumers emerging very rapidly India, China, Asia and Middle East these countries now has too much fiat money in hand!! These do not factor in demand and supply yet. Gold future in good!! Time to buy!!

Cyclist
03-16-2008, 11:59 PM
we have entered this scenario now

12-14-2007, 04:13 PM
Cyclist
Member Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,400



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The derivative timebomb is ticking now.The defusement through printing this multi trillion financial mishap hasn't dawned on the retail investors as of yet.
Deflationary forces has been in force since last June and will be supplanted by inflationary ones in 2008. Everyone is in the wake of a wait and see mode from financial officers in companies to the ones in banks.However with the demise of the citi group ,a bank run in the good old USA is becoming a stark reality.
With this, inflation with shortages could be a different type of inflation.
Inflation caused by the breakdown of the payment mechanism between the different banks ,i.e. companies paid by transfer won't see it become honored.
This will create a chaotic situation.The Fed IMO is quit aware of this scenario
and might have to step in as a clearance bank.
We are entering the void of December before Christmas.
Staying the course

JoeBjr
03-17-2008, 12:07 AM
Cyclist,

welcome back friend. You had some of us here worried. Hope all is well on your end.

Cyclist
03-17-2008, 12:15 AM
Cyclist,

welcome back friend. You had some of us here worried. Hope all is well on your end.

everything is fine had an interesting trip to some oil/gas and mining operations.
the world CBs are going to flood the market with digi dollars,the key is to have physical gold and with companies that have no debt.
In addition with all the flooding of digi dollars ,some paper dollars mightbe a good thing to have as well.If anything goes wrong i.e. a run on the banks
or the freezing of the atm machines your paper dollars will tie you over.

Quad G
03-17-2008, 12:17 AM
everything is fine had an interesting trip to some oil/gas and mining operations.
the world CBs are going to flood the market with digi dollars,the key is to have physical gold and with companies that have no debt.
In addition with all the flooding of digi dollars ,some paper dollars mightbe a good thing to have as well.If anything goes wrong i.e. a run on the banks
or the freezing of the atm machines your paper dollars will tie you over.

Welcome back Sir. Looking forward to your postings again.:)


...

Touch
03-17-2008, 12:28 AM
everything is fine had an interesting trip to some oil/gas and mining operations.
the world CBs are going to flood the market with digi dollars,the key is to have physical gold and with companies that have no debt.
In addition with all the flooding of digi dollars ,some paper dollars mightbe a good thing to have as well.If anything goes wrong i.e. a run on the banks
or the freezing of the atm machines your paper dollars will tie you over.

Everything is going to be much much better because you're back!!!!!!!!!!

sceptic
03-17-2008, 12:37 AM
everything is fine had an interesting trip to some oil/gas and mining operations.
the world CBs are going to flood the market with digi dollars,the key is to have physical gold and with companies that have no debt.
In addition with all the flooding of digi dollars ,some paper dollars mightbe a good thing to have as well.If anything goes wrong i.e. a run on the banks
or the freezing of the atm machines your paper dollars will tie you over.

Hi Cyclist,

Glad you're back ;)

So how do you see gold/silver physical unfold from here? Straight up or a very small pull back then a jump to 1,200$

Miners have not convincely decoupled from markets and I am afraid they might be pulled down... Any advice?

What about currencies. Is it still Yen/Swiss Franc the play or do you see intervention here.

High yielder like AUD/NZD are hit by carry trade liquidation so should we avoind them or do you expect just a small pullback then going higher because of interest rates speread with the USD.

I know, a lot of questions but many here will appreciate your answers.

Regards.

Cyclist
03-17-2008, 12:49 AM
Hi Cyclist,

Glad you're back ;)

So how do you see gold/silver physical unfold from here? Straight up or a very small pull back then a jump to 1,200$

Miners have not convincely decoupled from markets and I am afraid they might be pulled down... Any advice?

What about currencies. Is it still Yen/Swiss Franc the play or do you see intervention here.

High yielder like AUD/NZD are hit by carry trade liquidation so should we avoind them or do you expect just a small pullback then going higher because of interest rates speread with the USD.

I know, a lot of questions but many here will appreciate your answers.

Regards.

My projection still calls for a 1600 gold and 50 silver around May and June.
Intervention by the Yen has to be watched as it will be the lynchpin of the markets when that occurs the markets will stabilize for the moment.
The miners will be affected as well if the markets fry.Well financed and debt free miners and oil/gas producers will do ok.However gold physical is the best.
The carrytrade is unwinding as hedge funds will be shaken from the trees.
However with stabilizing the markets the FED is setting the stage for an inflationary bubble and will go global in 2009 after the global market's lows in November 2008.

N2Metal
03-17-2008, 12:55 AM
MACD is oscillating quickly now, and a constricting flag is forming nicely…..watch out, something is coming together quickly right now.

PS: this is in a April contract.

Quad G
03-17-2008, 01:04 AM
Cyclist,

You have commented before about the onset of 'competitive debasement' of currencies, especially in regards to the Euro. They have held the line and remained hawkish in the last session.

My question to you is, if and when do you think the ECB will soften their tone? or do you see Trichet keeping his foot down for a while longer?


...

AfricanSkies
03-17-2008, 02:42 AM
Thoughts on performance of gold miner stocks if (when:( ) the main markets tank this week?

Strategy now probably change all into physical, give the market some time, then wade into cheap miners sold because of margin calls...