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retro
01-26-2009, 04:03 AM
Gold is neutral/bullish and trying to rally off it's 900 base this morning. :cool:

Got Goldies
01-26-2009, 04:16 AM
Gold is neutral/bullish and trying to rally off it's 900 base this morning. :cool:

Thats just a mirage. I thought I saw almost $910 at Apmex. For us to crack $910 will be like trying to save Citi.

retro
01-26-2009, 04:46 AM
Thats just a mirage. I thought I saw almost $910 at Apmex. For us to crack $910 will be like trying to save Citi.

It's still a new high! $930 is to far away and I expected a pull back to 860 support myself. However crude may negate this pull back if heads towards $47-$50.

Got Goldies
01-26-2009, 05:03 AM
Hey, I'm seeing that mirage again. What gives???? Pound sterling went worthless?

mrhat
01-26-2009, 06:47 AM
Hey, I'm seeing that mirage again. What gives???? Pound sterling went worthless?

No it's still holding up around the 125 level against the yen. I expect pound and other smaller currencies to strengthen this week and then make new lows as the markets go south. Just my 2 cents.

AGoldhamster
01-26-2009, 06:59 AM
For those interested ... petruchio opened a thread for discussions of the "$upertrader Almanac", a book recommended by cyclist.

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=32881

http://www.amazon.com/Supertraders-Almanac-Reference-Analytical-Techniques/dp/1879591014

http://www.supertraderalmanac.com/

Vision / wishful dreamin: a cycles study group - and maybe some day one or more workshops with Cyclist.

BlackSea
01-26-2009, 07:11 AM
Cyclist,

2 quick short/intermediate term outlook questions:

1. is your $950 short term target for gold still applicable?

2. Do you see yen weakening against the dollar as dollar moves up, or do they climb together?

Thanks

MGoldman
01-26-2009, 09:20 AM
Great news Cyclist! Here is more evidence to support your outlook.
Gold broke out from an inverted head and shoulders pattern Friday, experienced a MACD crossover, golden crossover soon, and graveyard doji on the dollar, which is about to crash. Cheers.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12420.htm

Sounds good Cyclist. Gold is all WOUND UP and ready to challenge 1000! Watch this great TA video. This guy predicted the breakout a day in advance.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/wound_up_over_gold/

In addition gold is now underway to top out and making new highs in all currencies third week of April.It wil be making new highs second third week of February in dollar terms.Because of a flip in its polarity second week of November ' 08,it is projected to make an higher low mid March .This wil be also in line for oil to take off in February.The third week of April could be a second top for the main market.Long Bonds will start its decline in earnest from last Friday.


CYclist......how does all these corelate with oil?

you talk of wk-3 Apr as 2nd top.....new high wk-2 Feb meaning above 1033?......that is 133 pt within 10 trading days.... i wonder????

Barby G
01-26-2009, 10:02 AM
hey cyclist,

how high will pog top out in febuary and april?
How low will be the new low in March? it will b higher than $680 or $801?

Thanks a lot :)

retro
01-26-2009, 10:02 AM
WTI crude has broken though 47 currently at 47.25

FTSE is rallying nicely today +3%. :cool:

jabat
01-26-2009, 10:08 AM
This confirms what cyclist has been pointing out- hold YEN

retro
01-26-2009, 10:46 AM
This confirms what cyclist has been pointing out- hold YEN

You would be better of buying Sterling whilst it's on the floor. Investing money in Japan is a dead loss.

kukucat
01-26-2009, 12:47 PM
Anyone going for HOU under 10.00?

mozart13
01-26-2009, 01:06 PM
Gold is up today, yet HGU(Toronto gold index) is edging down.
Why?
Thx!
mozart

BeeTea
01-26-2009, 01:21 PM
Anyone going for HOU under 10.00?

I got HOU under $8.00 and lots of it. Now I'm trying to figure out if this is a break-out here or a resistence test and failure. I see potential iHnS in oil, but, if so, it has one more shoulder to do (per QuadG). Do I sell and buy back in at $8 again or add to the position and hang in for the ride to $20+?

karma
01-26-2009, 02:11 PM
Gold is up today, yet HGU(Toronto gold index) is edging down.
Why?
Thx!
mozart

Interesting isn't it. these higher spot prices reflected in (HBU) objective of which is to deliver, in an inverse way, double the daily performance of the COMEX gold futures contract for next month delivery (aiming to deliver -200% of the gain or +200% of the loss on a given day.
If spot goes up it should be driving up the profit forecasts for the miners (HGU). logically I tend to think that HGU will follow. Compare 1 year chart for both.
However i notice that many of the miners are hitting resistance levels. so maybe we see a breakout soon? or they just keep testing for the short term?

IMO I see this a a possible gift for anyone not invested in any miners at present if gold make those new highs. but what do i know.
Cyclist and others predicted that Gold would make new highs in coming weeks and months as the banking sector continues to crumble and currencies continue to unwind. Cyclist was bang on once again with regards to his turn date!
I will move back to Cyclist II thread now.

mcmelon
01-26-2009, 02:18 PM
interesting isn't it. these higher prices should be driving up the profit forecasts for the miners. IMO I see this a a possible gift for anyone not in this sector. Cyclist and others predict that Gold will make new highs in coming weeks and months as the banking sector continues to crumble and currencies continue to unwind.
Cyclist was bang on once again with regards to his turn date!
I will move back to Cyclist II thread now.

look up the components of HGU. it is not based upon spot price... it's based upon gold STOCKS. for bullion seek HBU i think (but check).

inframan
01-26-2009, 02:35 PM
Thanks Cyclist for the clarification. FWIW my work says the dollars upside in not done and it will eventually over the next several months rally to the 90 level, and maybe 92.50. That is one reason I am concerned gold may make a top around 950, and an important top. Regards

MK

whats the short term outlook for miners? looks like some are rallying and some are being sold off.

petruchio2100
01-26-2009, 03:25 PM
For those interested ... petruchio opened a thread for discussions of the "$upertrader Almanac", a book recommended by cyclist.

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=32881

http://www.amazon.com/Supertraders-Almanac-Reference-Analytical-Techniques/dp/1879591014

http://www.supertraderalmanac.com/

Vision / wishful dreamin: a cycles study group - and maybe some day one or more workshops with Cyclist.

I think a thread for discussions of the content of $upertraders is a great idea!

The thread PMCycles is not that, however (forgive the correction, AG), it is the workspace of our cycles study group whlch is basically a science project based on what we have learned and are learning from Cyclist about cycles.

(We are beginning the with 18-19 week gold cycle and our first serious question is why does it flip polarity when it does. Parties interested in the work pls email me here at Kitco thx.)

Bruce7Trader
01-26-2009, 05:20 PM
whats the short term outlook for miners? looks like some are rallying and some are being sold off.

How's your Red Back? I'm buying today! Love that Red Back mining!

B7T:eek:


Red Back Mining Inc. (RBI) announced today that that it has entered into an agreement to sell an aggregate of 20,000,000 Common Shares in the capital of the Company at a price of $7.50 per Common Share for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of $150,000,000 on a bought deal basis.

JohnGalt
01-26-2009, 06:22 PM
How's your Red Back? I'm buying today! Love that Red Back mining!

B7T:eek:


Red Back Mining Inc. (RBI) announced today that that it has entered into an agreement to sell an aggregate of 20,000,000 Common Shares in the capital of the Company at a price of $7.50 per Common Share for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of $150,000,000 on a bought deal basis.

where you been hiding? what are your thoughts on NXG and CMZ, still like them here?

Bruce7Trader
01-26-2009, 06:37 PM
where you been hiding? what are your thoughts on NXG and CMZ, still like them here?

I sold all my NGX but been adding CMT @ 1.06 Toronto. I'm doing well with JAG and lots of the miners look good here. Some are filled with fear but this is where the big money is to be made.

B7T:eek:

petruchio2100
01-26-2009, 11:00 PM
today's broads were weak. will be happy for them if can tread water, at least, and pick up some volume. (oil hates me, am in GDX.)

pedroxico
01-27-2009, 05:31 AM
The 23rd is my turning point,read back and thy will find

I saw no turning point on the 23rd.

Cyclist
01-27-2009, 06:35 AM
I saw no turning point on the 23rd.

Gold and stocks run on a different cycle .Jan.15th for a gold low and is projected to make an intermediate high on Wednesday,the pullback might be to support 880.The mainmarket made its projected low Jan.23 for a snapback rally into Jan.29.Those were the short term projections.

zoezoe
01-27-2009, 06:58 AM
open question.. when the DOW drops a significant amount is it implied that mining stocks will follow suit.Are juniors hit harder in a disproportionate value in comparison to large cap if this event is related.
holding position to 29th..tks

BlackSea
01-27-2009, 07:55 AM
Cyclist,

In your oppinion is HEU still a hold until the 29th?

Thanks

comexdefault
01-27-2009, 08:06 AM
This confirms what cyclist has been pointing out- hold YEN

The short dollar long Yen position in the 85 region you are asking for trouble. The Bank of Japan will have something to say about that level.

AGoldhamster
01-27-2009, 10:32 AM
Cyclist - if this week so far is highly bullish - than let me guess what will happen after 29th! : Dow down to 7000?

PS: i know towards 29th there are still today and 2 trading days to go.

PS2: that confirms what i'm thinkin since weeks: in the daily and esp. the weekly, across the board (DOW, DAX, ...), there are not bottoming patterns - but continuation patterns.
Add to that this 23th-29th Not-Rally and the inability of the DOW to rally - and it means better everybody puts their strongest helmets on for coming weeks. Means probability for a strong selloff and maybe new lows in the dow is increasing - NOT???

Or is it that i'm just too impatient?

The only (relativ) strong (again relativ) stocks i see are PM and Crude-related stocks. Or did i miss a sector?

-o-o-o-o-o-o-

Today also commodities across the board starting to move south again?! Several 1h to 4h charts start turning bearish again - not?
Or is this just a dollar kiss good-buy to 85.3x?

Cyclist
01-27-2009, 10:39 AM
Cyclist - if this week so far is highly bullish - than let me guess what will happen after 29th! : Dow down to 7000?

PS: i know towards 29th there are still today and 2 trading days to go.

PS2: that confirms what i'm thinkin since weeks: in the daily and esp. the weekly, across the board (DOW, DAX, ...), there are not bottoming patterns - but continuation patterns.
Add to that this 23th-29th Not-Rally and the inability of the DOW to rally - and it means better everybody puts their strongest helmets on for coming weeks. Means probability for a strong selloff and maybe new lows in the dow is increasing - NOT???

Or is it that i'm just too impatient?

The only (relativ) strong (again relativ) stocks i see are PM and Crude-related stocks. Or did i miss a sector?

this market going up, is filled with wild wide swings.Looking at the Yen,the stormflags are out as of this morning and be ready for another bump down.
The date is still projected at the 29th,in what shape ,it is going to be interesting what will follow

kukucat
01-27-2009, 10:40 AM
Gold and stocks run on a different cycle .Jan.15th for a gold low and is projected to make an intermediate high on Wednesday,the pullback might be to support 880.The mainmarket made its projected low Jan.23 for a snapback rally into Jan.29.Those were the short term projections.

What do you think about HOU

Will it rally back above 10 in short term?

Thanks

AGoldhamster
01-27-2009, 10:43 AM
this market going up, is filled with wild wide swings.Looking at the Yen,the stormflags are out as of this morning and be ready for another bump down.
The date is still projected at the 29th,in what shape ,it is going to be interesting what will follow
So just a dollar kiss good-buy to 85.3x?!?

BTW: today also commodities across the board starting to move south again?! Several 1h to 4h charts start turning bearish again - imho of course and for the moment.

pedroxico
01-27-2009, 12:26 PM
Gold and stocks run on a different cycle .Jan.15th for a gold low and is projected to make an intermediate high on Wednesday,the pullback might be to support 880.The mainmarket made its projected low Jan.23 for a snapback rally into Jan.29.Those were the short term projections.

You mean we will still see a rally within 29th in main markets (above 10000)?? Because up to now there was no turning point for main markets, just going sideways.

horton99
01-27-2009, 12:28 PM
Time will tell, but as of right now the the 23rd at open was the low.

tothemoon
01-27-2009, 12:54 PM
Cyclist,

Would you kindly clarify what you expect for oil in February and March?

I thought gold and oil move somewhat together and you had a buy on oil for 3rd week of Feb and a sell on gold in early Feb.

Thanks and please up the great work!!

Silver Sled
01-27-2009, 12:59 PM
This market going up, is filled with wild wide swings. Looking at the Yen, the stormflags are out as of this morning and be ready for another bump down. The date is still projected at the 29th,in what shape, it is going to be interesting what will follow.

Forgive me, I am not clear here. Is it the Au market that Cyclist is talking about going up or the Dow? By 'stormflags are out' this suggests to me that Cyclist is talking about the Yen dropping, and if so perhaps Au will rally.

But, the more I read this the more confused I get. Can someone clarify for this cloud-headed rookie?

Cyclist
01-27-2009, 01:31 PM
You mean we will still see a rally within 29th in main markets (above 10000)?? Because up to now there was no turning point for main markets, just going sideways.

Again price is not the determining factor ,time is.Sometimes time and price meet.The Dow is stuck in a triangle 8400/7800,if it is unable to break out to
the upside we could see a hefty downdraft to 7000 .I don't think we will go lower than that number.After we might still see a rally to take us back to 10500.Bearmarket rallies are vertical and short in duration.
My trading capital stays always 50% in cash at the end of the day and mostly in the 80% range the last couple of months

Cyclist
01-27-2009, 01:36 PM
Cyclist,

Would you kindly clarify what you expect for oil in February and March?

I thought gold and oil move somewhat together and you had a buy on oil for 3rd week of Feb and a sell on gold in early Feb.



Thanks and please up the great work!!

As said before oil is running on a different track ,if oil goes up ,it will be heading up the mainmarkets or following them.So oil is geared to go up
after retesting its previous lows in February.And that IMO could happen the first two weeks of February.

bullau
01-27-2009, 01:50 PM
Who in their right mind would pay money to earn less than a 1% yield on a 2 year bond........unbelievable...........FED must be really desperate.......These are the flags warning of the inflationary storm to be felt down the road.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Treasurys-improve-after-mammoth-auction/story.aspx?guid=%7BD6932F68%2D1861%2D4769%2D988C%2 D37F66A14357C%7D

SpiderMan
01-27-2009, 02:01 PM
hey, what do you think about the Fed meeting?
a full one point cut is a remote possibility, but anyway it should be bullish for gold!

bullau
01-27-2009, 02:05 PM
The FED fund rate is already at 0.3% so they can't cut more than 0.3% to zero unless there is something I don't know.......I would be surprised if they cut to zero interest rates but you never know with Ben and co.

horton99
01-27-2009, 02:09 PM
hey, what do you think about the Fed meeting?
a full one point cut is a remote possibility, but anyway it should be bullish for gold!

I must have taken a lick on the head, but a full point off of what? Aren't we sitting at .25% US?

AGoldhamster
01-27-2009, 02:12 PM
Forgive me, I am not clear here. Is it the Au market that Cyclist is talking about going up or the Dow? By 'stormflags are out' this suggests to me that Cyclist is talking about the Yen dropping, and if so perhaps Au will rally.

But, the more I read this the more confused I get. Can someone clarify for this cloud-headed rookie?
Cyclist was talking about the DOW - on the other side da yen is again showing strength - hence choppy wild and divergent markets here.

AGoldhamster
01-27-2009, 02:15 PM
Again price is not the determining factor ,time is.Sometimes time and price meet.The Dow is stuck in a triangle 8400/7800,if it is unable to break out to
the upside we could see a hefty downdraft to 7000 .I don't think we will go lower than that number.After we might still see a rally to take us back to 10500.Bearmarket rallies are vertical and short in duration.
My trading capital stays always 50% in cash at the end of the day and mostly in the 80% range the last couple of months
Thx Cyclist for ".... in cash and mostly in the 80% range"!

Waoh that was an eye opener!

Bruce7Trader
01-27-2009, 02:21 PM
The FED fund rate is already at 0.3% so they can't cut more than 0.3% to zero unless there is something I don't know.......I would be surprised if they cut to zero interest rates but you never know with Ben and co.

Holding the HUI down today but explosive for tomorrow. With Gold going to 940 in the next 24 hours HUI will be looking great! What a buying window we are watching!:eek:

B7T:eek:

All in the plan to hold HUI under 300 for much of the day and Gold at 900 tomorrow we win!

SpiderMan
01-27-2009, 02:24 PM
I must have taken a lick on the head, but a full point off of what? Aren't we sitting at .25% US?

:D ha-ha-ha:D
the rates can as well be negative!:D
hope Ben will find something to prop up the markets...
:rolleyes:

Bruce7Trader
01-27-2009, 02:54 PM
Anyone still holding SRS your in big trouble for tomorrows huge market rally!

Bottom is in for pre FED day. The door is about to close for the SRS get out of jail window! DOW will close over 8,250 today!

B7T:eek:

horton99
01-27-2009, 03:02 PM
:D ha-ha-ha
the rates can as well be negative!
hope Ben will find something to prop up the markets...
:rolleyes:

Now that would be something to see - a negative rate

Actually wasn't there a negative rate on a short term bond recently? It was like 100.02 and when mature it would 100. That would mean that I am paying them interest to borrow money from me.:confused: :confused:

Mixed up world.

Bruce7Trader
01-27-2009, 03:06 PM
Now that would be something to see - a negative rate

Actually wasn't there a negative rate on a short term bond recently? It was like 100.02 and when mature it would 100. That would mean that I am paying them interest to borrow money from me.:confused: :confused:

Mixed up world.

Fed is no longer in control! This is great and the market makers have no idea how to control this market. Words have no meaning and that would include my own. Market goes higher much higher.

B7T:eek:

AGoldhamster
01-27-2009, 03:30 PM
Today $TNX turning south again, bonds north again ... ?!

Bearish FOMC outcome tomorrow?
Or bad earnings to come today?

Anyway - somewhere maybe smoke again.
And where's smoke - there's likely also to be some kind of fire.

horton99
01-27-2009, 04:03 PM
Anyone still holding SRS your in big trouble for tomorrows huge market rally!

Bottom is in for pre FED day. The door is about to close for the SRS get out of jail window! DOW will close over 8,250 today!

B7T:eek:

Since the 8250 prediction did not happen does that mean this one "Market goes higher much higher" is off or do you stick with it.

I am positioned for the market and gold and miners to go much higher, but today was not good. We failed to have a daily high higher than yesterdays high - Not good. Although the low was higher than yesterday's low.

CaptainJack
01-27-2009, 04:06 PM
Since the 8250 prediction did not happen does that mean this one "Market goes higher much higher" is off or do you stick with it.

I am positioned for the market and gold and miners to go much higher, but today was not good. We failed to have a daily high higher than yesterdays high - Not good. Although the low was higher than yesterday's low.

Exactly, and we continue into the narrowing wedge...Resolution tomorrow...Ive been saying north for over 5 days now...Once this wedge plays out, it cant go south, FED fought too hard to get it here...They havent suckered in any longs yet, zero...Only day trading still controlling the market...
They have to get it over 9000 for the party to begin, and it will end as quick as it started...
Look for bs reports, bs government news, and bs media in full force coming...FED will spark something, or some fake numbers will give investors hope...Will break north of this wedge, and shoot past 9000...They will sucker in new longs, new blood money, and then let it all crash again...Im thinking 9700 and that would be a multi month top... As cyclist said, probably be a lower high in April...then look out!!

horton99
01-27-2009, 04:09 PM
I certainly hope you are correct. We shall see. TIME will tell.

nmgoldhunter
01-27-2009, 04:44 PM
I saw no turning point on the 23rd.

A look at the 10-day chart of the $SPX and the $BKX shows both declining trends into Jan 21 followed by a day or two of sideways action, uptrend began Jan 23 at around S&P 806. S&P up around 5% and BKX up 10% since the 23rd. Not huge moves, but turns nonetheless.

CaptainJack
01-27-2009, 04:46 PM
A look at the 10-day chart of the $SPX and the $BKX shows both declining trends into Jan 21 followed by a day or two of sideways action, uptrend began Jan 23 at around S&P 806. S&P up around 5% and BKX up 10% since the 23rd. Not huge moves, but turns nonetheless.

Im charting the same trend, and trading off it...Until its broken Im trading the trend...I use Cyclists comments as my last conviction I needed to not sell every time it dips...Ive been rewarded for my patience so far...

greenbeard
01-27-2009, 04:53 PM
Huge rally? Now where would the news for that come from? Right now the news is 10:1 negitive, and GE just came out with horrible news again. I will say this once more, THERE IS NO RALLY COMING. No santar rally, no Obama rally, etc. We had a rally to 8700. It is over. The nest rally will be AFTER a drop below 7000.

Anyone still holding SRS your in big trouble for tomorrows huge market rally!

Bottom is in for pre FED day. The door is about to close for the SRS get out of jail window! DOW will close over 8,250 today!

B7T:eek:

nmgoldhunter
01-27-2009, 04:55 PM
Anyone still holding SRS your in big trouble for tomorrows huge market rally!

Bottom is in for pre FED day. The door is about to close for the SRS get out of jail window! DOW will close over 8,250 today!

B7T:eek:

Tomorrow may present SRS and FAZ reload opportunities if broad market shows strength. REITS beginning to report next week. BKX may be due for a breather soon. You sound like you expect REIT earnings, Thursday jobless and Friday GDP to be upside surprises. Doubtful IMHO.

You forget that most of us TRADE the SRS. We do not buy and hold it.

nmgoldhunter
01-27-2009, 05:38 PM
Wow...markets going nuts over the bad bank "news" in afterhours. BKX looks to take off tomorrow. FAS up 12% AH. Not that I believe the bad bank idea will solve anything, can't get in the way of trend.

Cyclist's thoughts on this "bad bank" news and it's effect, if any, on short-term turns will be appreciated.

dsharp9000
01-27-2009, 07:00 PM
here is my gut; and dont have any knowledge in day trading;

gold will go down a lot (short term...meaning within weeks)

oil down a lot..within weeks

stocks will not go down


that is prediction based on feeling; do feelings count?

AGoldhamster
01-28-2009, 04:06 AM
Cyclist - after 29th - at which date should we expect the next short-/mediumterm turning point for the next low for equities?

Got Goldies
01-28-2009, 04:09 AM
Gold is getting hammered. Just like last night. Whats the news in Asia about banks?

Argento
01-28-2009, 04:59 AM
I have that feeling too DSHARP9000. Over the next few of weeks anyway.
Just a breather after our last little rise up.
I'm looking at oil through an ETF when it settles into 30's again.
In the UK we seem to be experiencing a small rally of sorts, brought on by the re-surgence of the banking sector of all things?? Look at these numbers from this mornings FTSE trading!!


Top 10 winners

value change %

Lloyds Banking Group
90.70 23.60 35.17

Royal Bank of Scotland Group
17.30 1.60 10.19

Barclays
98.50 8.50 9.44


I think this is the dawn of another little silly season in the markets as irrational exhuberance takes hold. It wont last long. Reality will take hold with the next bit of bad news. I would say its a no brainer to short the banks now as they showed their weakness last week but managed to crank up the propaganda to artificialy re-flate their stock price. When you read stories about top guys at the BOEngland saying that in October 08 the entire UK banking industry was 3 hrs away from default until they effectively blocked the withdrawls of major overseas depositors, it suggests massive structural weakness.
Anyway, thats all finished with now. Happy, happy. Look at the monkey!!
The next leg down is inevitable after this little spurt. Just hold tight and enjoy the spectacle.
Just my opinion.

John T
01-28-2009, 05:13 AM
Gold is getting hammered. Just like last night. Whats the news in Asia about banks?



Not sure what you are referring to, however, the business story of the day in Australia is inflation down (Oil etc) clears way for aggressive interest rate cuts....... Yeah ...... lets pile on the debt.

Banks showing alot of strength today.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24974390-643,00.html

AGoldhamster
01-28-2009, 06:42 AM
Yesterday and today are the days to shake weak longs - which, after the "plunge" - again run after the train.

It's options expiry - each time the same games. And each time the weak longs and nervous nellies panic. Just funny. Da smarter ones use this panic to buy - at support, which also was mentioned last few days more than once.

Of course at some point gold will again correct - but that is not now.
Just IMHO of course - and DYOD!

Got Goldies
01-28-2009, 07:01 AM
They cant get Gold low enough to be in the clear for NY. NY will gooble up all the Gold.

cswc1021
01-28-2009, 07:04 AM
Gold is getting hammered. Just like last night. Whats the news in Asia about banks?

Most of Asia on holiday for Lunar new year so those markets very thin now along with option expiry so while the cats are away the mice play.

Got Goldies
01-28-2009, 07:22 AM
Should be a huge rally on Stimulus package in a couple hours. A long awaited approval of how Obama is doing?

SpiderMan
01-28-2009, 07:24 AM
guys, will it push up the crude?
i'm going to buy some now...

AGoldhamster
01-28-2009, 07:42 AM
guys, will it push up the crude?
i'm going to buy some now...
Unlikely ... seems as if a few gorillas are sitting upon european currencies and the whole commodities complex. Obviciously they don't follow stoxx. What ever it means.
Even stoxx are still somewhat tame - esp. those in US.

Tomorrow might be a completely different story though.

ALSO to keep in mind: today is FOMC announcement and ahead of FOMCs almost always gold were beaten down. And pretty often after FOMCs stocks rally.
So maybe in next days a bit of a bigger SM rally. What might pull commodities along.

Yet for the moment there's not the slightest doubt that gold is under control.
And again a cheap buy, for those who missed the train - or were smart enough to sell before "options expiry".

edit: at least not in the moment - though it might be a good buy here. Also added a few barrels.

Got Goldies
01-28-2009, 07:45 AM
There must be some big buyer of Gold, tried to hammer it twice, and hard as a rock. Someone must know something that going to be good news in NY. Maybe its time to get a piece of the action.

jovis
01-28-2009, 07:52 AM
There must be some big buyer of Gold, tried to hammer it twice, and hard as a rock. Someone must know something that going to be good news in NY. Maybe its time to get a piece of the action.

Speaking of action gg, why don't you keep yours to the five threads you've already started....... TODAY.:)

AGoldhamster
01-28-2009, 07:53 AM
Sorry for too much posting here - back into my thread.

MetalsKing
01-28-2009, 09:16 AM
[QUOTE=Got Goldies;508696]There must be some big buyer of Gold, tried to hammer it twice, and hard as a rock. Someone must know something that going to be good

Gold is topping, could make one more new high above 920, but at least a $100 decline or more lies ahead. The past few days I have sold all gold stock longs and am totally out of the market.

MK

SpiderMan
01-28-2009, 09:24 AM
[QUOTE=Got Goldies;508696]There must be some big buyer of Gold, tried to hammer it twice, and hard as a rock. Someone must know something that going to be good

Gold is topping, could make one more new high above 920, but at least a $100 decline or more lies ahead. The past few days I have sold all gold stock longs and am totally out of the market.

MK

Cyclist, you agree with that?
what's your view on the action today?

Bruce7Trader
01-28-2009, 09:25 AM
[QUOTE=Got Goldies;508696]There must be some big buyer of Gold, tried to hammer it twice, and hard as a rock. Someone must know something that going to be good

Gold is topping, could make one more new high above 920, but at least a $100 decline or more lies ahead. The past few days I have sold all gold stock longs and am totally out of the market.

MK

MK this is just what they wanted to scare you out and now you can stand on the side. 940 - 970 in the cards now!

B7T:eek:

kobajashi
01-28-2009, 09:33 AM
Cyclist - after 29th - at which date should we expect the next short-/mediumterm turning point for the next low for equities?



Hello Goldhamster,

This is also my big question!!! Thanx for asking it again.
I asked it a couple of days ago but i think cyclist must have missed it.



So Cyclist/


After the top on the 29the ... Is there going to be a low between 29the and the next top mid march?
Or do you think the marked will just go sideways

And can you explain for gold as well as for main markets (dow, S&P ...)

thanks in advance


koba

kobajashi
01-28-2009, 09:35 AM
Hello Goldhamster,

This is also my big question!!! Thanx for asking it again.
I asked it a couple of days ago but i think cyclist must have missed it.



So Cyclist/


After the top on the 29the ... Is there going to be a low between 29the and the next top mid march?
Or do you think the marked will just go sideways



thanks in advance


koba






hey guys, maybe its a good idee to open another threat with only updates of targets and timelines given by cyclist?

No other posts on that threat .... just predictions and fact that always can be updated




let me know




greetz

kukucat
01-28-2009, 09:58 AM
As said before oil is running on a different track ,if oil goes up ,it will be heading up the mainmarkets or following them.So oil is geared to go up
after retesting its previous lows in February.And that IMO could happen the first two weeks of February.

Hi Cyclist,

Do you have any thoughts on HOU?.....

DIG is rising with the main market while HOU is going back to 7.77.

horton99
01-28-2009, 09:59 AM
Gold and stocks run on a different cycle .Jan.15th for a gold low and is projected to make an intermediate high on Wednesday,the pullback might be to support 880.The mainmarket made its projected low Jan.23 for a snapback rally into Jan.29.Those were the short term projections.

Here is cyclist gold projection from yesterday. He expects a little pullback after today.

edit: on gold that is

eagle
01-28-2009, 10:22 AM
hey guys, maybe its a good idee to open another threat with only updates of targets and timelines given by cyclist?

No other posts on that threat .... just predictions and fact that always can be updated
let me know




greetz

That would be a great idea.

kobajashi
01-28-2009, 10:36 AM
Here is cyclist gold projection from yesterday. He expects a little pullback after today.

edit: on gold that is




yes indeed, but its just not clear what gold and mainmarkets will do from 29the till mid march.

Maybe its because englisch is not my language, but somethimes i am confused about some points


thanks

bullau
01-28-2009, 10:43 AM
[QUOTE=MetalsKing;508771]

MK this is just what they wanted to scare you out and now you can stand on the side. 940 - 970 in the cards now!

B7T:eek:

Totally disagree Bruce.........Gold is topping short-term imo........920ish is heavy resistance and for gold to break that means a test of the all-time highs last March and I don't think the market is ready for that yet with VIX now dropping and hope springing out from every government mouth........We will have our short term bear market rally and gold will consolidate more........Latter half of 2009 or this summer, gold will be breaking out in a big way imo.........IMO, gold and gold stocks can be had more cheaply in a few weeks.

AGoldhamster
01-28-2009, 11:09 AM
"Cyclist has exceeded their stored private messages quota and can not accept further messages until they clear some space."

Sparkles
01-28-2009, 11:45 AM
I'm certainly don't speak for Cyclist but I can assure you my mailbox would have exceded its limit the first day after I got a load of private messages from members too. And you can bet your bottom buck it would remain that way for the foreseeable future 'cuz I sure wouldn't be about to unplug it.
He may not get your message...hopefully you get his.

captainbluff
01-28-2009, 11:48 AM
Anyone still holding SRS your in big trouble for tomorrows huge market rally!

Bottom is in for pre FED day. The door is about to close for the SRS get out of jail window! DOW will close over 8,250 today!

B7T:eek:

Good call on SRS yesterday. SKF is being trashed even more, could be a good entry point in a couple of days.

bullau
01-28-2009, 12:47 PM
Added some HGD for protection..........Could have a sell-off in gold and stocks short term as they have had a nice rally.........920ish was already tested and may need a pullback and consolidation before another retest.......See what Big Ben has to say not that it will make a difference.......I think Friday's GDP numbers could have a big effect on the market one way or another if it is really bad or not as bad as expected........I am leaning towards really bad and then gold could really sell off if a deflationary scare starts again.

Bruce7Trader
01-28-2009, 02:39 PM
[QUOTE=Bruce7Trader;508780]

Totally disagree Bruce.........Gold is topping short-term imo........920ish is heavy resistance and for gold to break that means a test of the all-time highs last March and I don't think the market is ready for that yet with VIX now dropping and hope springing out from every government mouth........We will have our short term bear market rally and gold will consolidate more........Latter half of 2009 or this summer, gold will be breaking out in a big way imo.........IMO, gold and gold stocks can be had more cheaply in a few weeks.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.

Enjoy the ride!

B7T:eek:

bullau
01-28-2009, 03:23 PM
[QUOTE=bullau;508877]

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.

Enjoy the ride!

B7T:eek:

That doesn't change anything Bruce.........We all knew FED was going to buy Treasuries and we all know they will be printing money like mad........This is not new news........If you noticed gold sold off after the FED announcement from 890 and close down more at 884..........I agree wholeheartedly gold is going much higher but for next few days or longer we are heading down to 850s in all likelihood than you can pump your stocks like crazy even more....lol

CaptainJack
01-28-2009, 03:37 PM
[QUOTE=Bruce7Trader;509238]

That doesn't change anything Bruce.........We all knew FED was going to buy Treasuries and we all know they will be printing money like mad........This is not new news........If you noticed gold sold off after the FED announcement from 890 and close down more at 884..........I agree wholeheartedly gold is going much higher but for next few days or longer we are heading down to 850s in all likelihood than you can pump your stocks like crazy even more....lol

Hey Bullau, You back in SRS? I sold my S & P long today, thinking of switching to SRS for tomorrow...? You in?

bullau
01-28-2009, 03:46 PM
[QUOTE=bullau;509311]

Hey Bullau, You back in SRS? I sold my S & P long today, thinking of switching to SRS for tomorrow...? You in?

No, not yet.........You got your rally you've been calling for finally and it could last awhile as S &P broke major resistance at 860 today as I'm sure you'll agree........Could have a nice rally up to 150 and 200 day moving averages in the next little while and everyone will be saying the bear market is over...........I'll be shorting like crazy then!....Thing is the fact that we didn't test the November lows just means the next drop is going to be murderous and slice through those levels either this spring or summer.........Out of day trading SRS but will buy some when I think the markets have topped.........It is pure evil but can have great returns in short period of time......Went short gold stocks just for a few days and will go long thereafter.........Things just can't get any more bullish for gold long term......Unbelievable what they are doing in the US.......The FED is really getting desperate and had to laugh that they expect recovery in second half of 2009??

CaptainJack
01-28-2009, 03:50 PM
Bullau, trade now is short, per cyclists recommendation, and TA all scream short..Shorting S & P now, longing grains and gold here...Shorting S & P till 810, then longing till 900...

Remember buy SRS on th 29th for a spectacular run....Maybe this is now the test to sub 8000....Im not waiting till tomorrow to buy SRS, buying now, shorting S & P, longing gold..grains...Its the winning play right now...

nofixedaddress
01-28-2009, 03:56 PM
Took profit on DDM @ $29 ... back into satans spawn , aka SRS @ $49 .

INHSRV
01-28-2009, 03:58 PM
Cyclist

Unbelivable -- I am new at this, and you have my utmost respect. Thanks

MetalsKing
01-28-2009, 03:59 PM
Cyclist? Are you shorting this market rally or waiting til tomorrow? I am out and being patient.

MK

Roba11
01-28-2009, 04:01 PM
Gold and stocks run on a different cycle .Jan.15th for a gold low and is projected to make an intermediate high on Wednesday,the pullback might be to support 880.The mainmarket made its projected low Jan.23 for a snapback rally into Jan.29.Those were the short term projections.

does cyclist mean to get out of the main markets tonight (28th) or sometime tomorrow (29th)?

CaptainJack
01-28-2009, 04:05 PM
does cyclist mean to get out of the main markets tonight (28th) or sometime tomorrow (29th)?

Ive never seen a repulsion like 8400 just gave the DOW, it was a smack down like I have never seen. It hit it, then dropped 50 points in under 2 minutes...FED's done, stimulus is another sell on the news story... Nothing here to break that line at the moment...After another test down, we will probably get the breakout past 8400...SRS, Shorting S & P, long gold, long grains...

horton99
01-28-2009, 04:14 PM
the morning of the 23rd. Bought several names that were under extreme pressure that morning and wow have I been rewarded. I went from 10% of trading capital in the market to 50% at the open on the 23rd with tight stops just below dow 7900 support. Stopped out of few today with a profit, but had my best 3 days since October bottom and November bottom. It is nice to be on the right side again. This rally may run for awhile but I am going to tighten my stops up before morning and protect my profit. Thank you guys for your input, I feel like I have learned alot from you all and it has made me a better trader.

Sound Gold
01-28-2009, 04:25 PM
Don't post much but read these threads everyday. Have to give a huge thanks to Cyclist for his rally prediction. Made back much of recent losses today.

Dumped longs and back in the short.

Couldn't pass up on SRS at this level. Back in around 51. Setting a 3 week target of $65. Anyone care to share their targets? Hoping to hit $65 in time to move into crude 3rd week of Feb.

Fingers crossed that "Satan's spawn" also follows Cyclist's recent prediction. :cool:

nofixedaddress
01-28-2009, 04:27 PM
Starbucks closing another 300 stores ... the commercial real estate market is not getting better any time soon. http://www.cnbc.com/id/28881127

greenbeard
01-28-2009, 05:07 PM
Interesting bear market rally today. EVERY company reporting has horrible numbers and most included big layoffs with the numbers, yet they were almost all up large today. Very indicitive of a bear market rally. It will be interesting to see who misses the numbers since the bar is set lower than I have ever seen in my lifetime.

bullau
01-28-2009, 05:11 PM
How right you are greenbeard.......Market is ignoring almost all the bad news.......It wants to go up and broke some important resistance today so I don't understand why everyone is all of a sudden going short on the market.........Today was a huge volume day on the upside and the financials lead the way........sure sign there is much more rally to come in the next few weeks............Unless the GDP number is really bad..........If the markets actually touch their respective 200 day averages on the way up it will provide the best shorting opportunity since last summer.

greenbeard
01-28-2009, 06:09 PM
I don't see how it can rally more without great news. The news is out about the fluff bad bank. Profits are on the table for some and shorts have mostly covered. With weak earnings and more job cuts somethings got to give.

bullau
01-28-2009, 06:27 PM
Markets can remain irrational for an indefinite time.....I learned that one a long time ago.......go with the flow.

goldstar2001
01-28-2009, 07:04 PM
Don't post much but read these threads everyday. Have to give a huge thanks to Cyclist for his rally prediction. Made back much of recent losses today.

Dumped longs and back in the short.

Couldn't pass up on SRS at this level. Back in around 51. Setting a 3 week target of $65. Anyone care to share their targets? Hoping to hit $65 in time to move into crude 3rd week of Feb.

Fingers crossed that "Satan's spawn" also follows Cyclist's recent prediction. :cool:

I think Cyclist rarely holds SRS for more than a day (just a guess). I followed his predictions and made some money on SRS but it is extremely volatile and it would be risky to hold for multiple days. You may want to go back and read all of Cyclists posts because I think he is biased long now.

rawteam1
01-28-2009, 07:10 PM
srs a buy under 40 , 50 crossed 200 is getting and will keep getting hammered

Piled higher and Deeper
01-28-2009, 08:34 PM
Sell tomorrow morning and reinsert the 29th for a spectacular run
Here Cyclist is speaking on SRS, so it would appear(?) that he is planning to hold overnight with a multi-day (week?) rally in SRS.

CaptainJack
01-28-2009, 08:52 PM
Here Cyclist is speaking on SRS, so it would appear(?) that he is planning to hold overnight with a multi-day (week?) rally in SRS.

He hasnt changed his tune, all these comments should be in cyclist II by the way... Please, lets all head over there with me now...I just put on a pot of coffee...

mrchinup
01-28-2009, 08:57 PM
Here Cyclist is speaking on SRS, so it would appear(?) that he is planning to hold overnight with a multi-day (week?) rally in SRS.

I use it only for day trading, i never hold over night, there is no need too. I believe sooner or later it's worth 20 bucks or so. But it is a great day trading tool.

mrchinup
01-28-2009, 09:02 PM
Don't post much but read these threads everyday. Have to give a huge thanks to Cyclist for his rally prediction. Made back much of recent losses today.

Dumped longs and back in the short.

Couldn't pass up on SRS at this level. Back in around 51. Setting a 3 week target of $65. Anyone care to share their targets? Hoping to hit $65 in time to move into crude 3rd week of Feb.

Fingers crossed that "Satan's spawn" also follows Cyclist's recent prediction. :cool:

I think you will lose your arse if you hold to long. Cyclist knows what he is doing, i would never hold over night . Day trade it and you can do very well.

bullau
01-28-2009, 10:01 PM
He hasnt changed his tune, all these comments should be in cyclist II by the way... Please, lets all head over there with me now...I just put on a pot of coffee...

You are too funny captain.....lol

xp_good
01-29-2009, 02:19 AM
Dear Cyclist,
1- what will be the gold's action in the next month (feb 2009)?
2- what is the maximum high we will see, and the minimum of Gold?
3- u was talked before about 950 $ Level, when we will see it ?

is 880 a good buy price? or i ve to wait to see a lower price?

thanks in advance

Bruce7Trader
01-29-2009, 08:45 AM
I don't see how it can rally more without great news. The news is out about the fluff bad bank. Profits are on the table for some and shorts have mostly covered. With weak earnings and more job cuts somethings got to give.

Gold has a great looking chart now for the run to 940 first target and second target of 970 soon after. This run will take us to 1,150. Enjoy this is the start of the real trip now...:eek:

B7T:eek:

clayson
01-29-2009, 10:07 AM
whispers - FED to announce buying some Treasuries before end of week

CaptainJack
01-29-2009, 10:10 AM
whispers - FED to announce buying some Treasuries before end of week

Already priced in....Everyone knows they will be the only buyers eventually...Not new news...

clayson
01-29-2009, 10:17 AM
Already priced in....Everyone knows they will be the only buyers eventually...Not new news...

there is a big limit on the above action when initiated and consequently is far from priced in. it will be repriced everyday

CaptainJack
01-29-2009, 10:21 AM
there is a big limit on the above action when initiated and consequently is far from priced in. it will be repriced everyday

Golds been reacting to this ineviatablity...Why it breached 900 again...But your right, when announced there will be consequences to the market at that moment...briefly...

clayson
01-29-2009, 10:28 AM
Golds been reacting to this ineviatablity...Why it breached 900 again...But your right, when announced there will be consequences to the market at that moment...briefly...

market is ignoring FED bark as bite has not materialized yet, but can be discounted 'briefly' if materializes as well..

Bruce7Trader
01-29-2009, 04:07 PM
Huge gains in SRS again! Profits will be gone in the friday trade so hope you got out again! Gold run to 940 did'nt happen again. Always one day early but tomorrow is just fine. Remember 940 tomorrow and 970 is the next target short term before 1,150 and 1,650.. Enjoy the ride..: eee

B7T:eek:

greenbeard
01-29-2009, 05:35 PM
Sorry, I should have been more clear. I was talking about the stock market.

Gold has a great looking chart now for the run to 940 first target and second target of 970 soon after. This run will take us to 1,150. Enjoy this is the start of the real trip now...:eek:

B7T:eek:

Cyclist
01-30-2009, 06:33 AM
As mentioned before in my earlier posts,the 30year bonds did something that it wouldn't do before ,fall with the mainmarket.This is the signal we have waited for ,we have arrived where inflation is becoming the tone in2009.Yesterday the bonds dropped in unison with the general market.Since Christmas it has lost 12%

BlackSea
01-30-2009, 06:42 AM
As mentioned before in my earlier posts,the 30year bonds did something that it wouldn't do before ,fall with the mainmarket.This is the signal we have waited for ,we have arrived where inflation is becoming the tone in2009.Yesterday the bonds dropped in unison with the general market.Since Christmas it has lost 12%

Do you see this as the beginning of Yen massive appreciation?
Also gold new highs much earlier in 2009?

Thanks

swampy
01-30-2009, 06:45 AM
As mentioned before in my earlier posts,the 30year bonds did something that it wouldn't do before ,fall with the mainmarket.This is the signal we have waited for ,we have arrived where inflation is becoming the tone in2009.Yesterday the bonds dropped in unison with the general market.Since Christmas it has lost 12%

cyclist, does this now mark the end of deflation.
should we go long oil now or still wait till 2nd/3rd week of feb?

thx

swampy

Cyclist
01-30-2009, 06:48 AM
cyclist, does this now mark the end of deflation.
should we go long oil now or still wait till 2nd/3rd week of feb?

thx

swampy

You might want to wait till next week,you could be lucky inthe 30dollar with a market slide sub 8000.You can never be to late.

Cyclist
01-30-2009, 06:50 AM
Do you see this as the beginning of Yen massive appreciation?
Also gold new highs much earlier in 2009?

Thanks

Yes on both account

JammyT
01-30-2009, 06:52 AM
Yes on both account

Hey Cyclist

I am thinking about trading a long on gold just to make sure I dont miss out on the projected rises. I want to place a fairly deep stop loss, just in case there are any downward tree shakes.

Do you think an entry point long here with a stop loss at 880 is safe, and ok timing?

clayson
01-30-2009, 06:58 AM
As mentioned before in my earlier posts,the 30year bonds did something that it wouldn't do before ,fall with the mainmarket.This is the signal we have waited for ,we have arrived where inflation is becoming the tone in2009.Yesterday the bonds dropped in unison with the general market.Since Christmas it has lost 12%

you were spot on, on the 30y and gold combo, at the same time, traders are cushioning the free ride yield gap until the FED materializes the verbal action. this action needed to counteract the private debt yields rise(as GSE MBS buying leads zero gain) and also reduce the interest cost to the US Gov by limiting the growth in the deficit at the margin, is the most inflationary part

AGoldhamster
01-30-2009, 08:32 AM
Upside surprise ...

US: GDP QoQ (Annualized) -3,8% vs -5% exp; Personal cosumption -3,5% vs -3,5% exp; GDP Price index -0,1% vs 0,40% exp; Core PCE QoQ 0,6% vs 1% exp; Employment cost index 0,5 % vs 0,70%exp.

A reason to rally ????

tcg1022
01-30-2009, 09:01 AM
Upside surprise ...

US: GDP QoQ (Annualized) -3,8% vs -5% exp; Personal cosumption -3,5% vs -3,5% exp; GDP Price index -0,1% vs 0,40% exp; Core PCE QoQ 0,6% vs 1% exp; Employment cost index 0,5 % vs 0,70%exp.

A reason to rally ????

They reaally put it to me with that crap now premarket turns from bad to good and SRS goes from good to bad all before 9am. Now I dont know whether to hold SRS or dump at the open. I am sure some others are in the same position.

Cerridwen
01-30-2009, 09:06 AM
I think we're going up. Cyclist said we would test 8140 (done yesterday) and from there either drop to 8000 (and then further) or go up and try to break through 8400, with a possible eventual high of around 10K.

I think this is the path we are on. YMMV.

swampy
01-30-2009, 09:09 AM
Yes on both account

cyclist,
i just want to get an understanding of why you think the yen will go through massive appreciation. i understand gold, oil, etc... but why the yen??

swampy

MetalsKing
01-30-2009, 09:12 AM
I think we're going up. Cyclist said we would test 8140 (done yesterday) and from there either drop to 8000 (and then further) or go up and try to break through 8400, with a possible eventual high of around 10K.

I think this is the path we are on. YMMV.

I tend to agree, I also think gold is topping

MK

Piled higher and Deeper
01-30-2009, 09:18 AM
I tend to agree, I also think gold is topping

MK
MK,

Gold miners to go up with the DOW or take a breather with gold, in your opinion?

Thanks

On SRS, I am out at open. Take whats left of gains from yesterday

MetalsKing
01-30-2009, 09:28 AM
MK,

Gold miners to go up with the DOW or take a breather with gold, in your opinion?

Thanks

On SRS, I am out at open. Take whats left of gains from yesterday

My opinion is they (miners) will make new highs and soon top. I think a key reversal day is not far away.

MK

Piled higher and Deeper
01-30-2009, 09:33 AM
My opinion is they (miners) will make new highs and soon top. I think a key reversal day is not far away.

MK
Thanks MK....

MattDavid
01-30-2009, 09:42 AM
Hey Cyclist,

Just wanted to say thanks for your valued imput. I've watched this board for over a year (Though I just "registered"), did some research, read up on your posting, and as a result, I made some money - said money is now being applied to my upcoming wedding, and I have you to thank for that.

Rock on,

Matt/David

MetalsKing
01-30-2009, 09:58 AM
Hey guys, bearish trading in the golds stocks as the XAU and GDX have not made new highs with the easy new highs in gold and silver - grande warning sign IMO.

MK

SparkyF7
01-30-2009, 10:01 AM
Cyclist: I followed your views for this week and made a few $ thanks. Should I leave for the weekend or is there a day trade to consider at this point.

inframan
01-30-2009, 10:28 AM
Hey guys, bearish trading in the golds stocks as the XAU and GDX have not made new highs with the easy new highs in gold and silver - grande warning sign IMO.

MK


Thanks. Yesterday just looked to crazy to be sustainable in the gold miners.

Do you have any numbers yet for possible bottom/entry for the HUI or GDX?

MetalsKing
01-30-2009, 10:40 AM
Thanks. Yesterday just looked to crazy to be sustainable in the gold miners.

Do you have any numbers yet for possible bottom/entry for the HUI or GDX?

Nope, I love metals long term but risk of a big correction is quite high IMO, I am happy for now to be out.

MK

_ker_
01-30-2009, 10:51 AM
As mentioned before in my earlier posts,the 30year bonds did something that it wouldn't do before ,fall with the mainmarket.This is the signal we have waited for ,we have arrived where inflation is becoming the tone in2009.Yesterday the bonds dropped in unison with the general market.Since Christmas it has lost 12%

this signal would be valid only if it breaks 125, i am also watching for inflation , and this is one of my flags

BlackSea
01-30-2009, 11:31 AM
cyclist,
i just want to get an understanding of why you think the yen will go through massive appreciation. i understand gold, oil, etc... but why the yen??

swampy

If I may answer that one: it's because once the treasuries drop in price (interest rates increase to make them more attractive to sell - there's a glut of them), the idea is that the holders will try to get out while they can.

As they get out, they sell the dollar and buy their currency and since Japan is one of the major holders, a lot of yen will need to be bought.

This is the same effect as buy treasuries had on strengthening the dollar last year, when everyone was buying treasuries, and therefore buying the dollar.

greenbeard
01-30-2009, 11:52 AM
Probably not going to happen with the market about to fall over. We will be lucky keep the boat a float another few weeks. TA is helpful, but one MUST look at the big picture, or a you will be flattened. Soon people will be praying for the Dow to get back to 8000, so they can get out. This is a game changer economy folks.



I think we're going up. Cyclist said we would test 8140 (done yesterday) and from there either drop to 8000 (and then further) or go up and try to break through 8400, with a possible eventual high of around 10K.

I think this is the path we are on. YMMV.

SpiderMan
01-30-2009, 12:53 PM
Cyclist,

hope you can read the post...
sold gold and silver today on a local peak, as you suggested...
when do you expect the last chance to load up before 1000?


thanks a lot!;)

MetalsKing
01-30-2009, 01:17 PM
So we had an almost perfect test of Dow 8000, back to 8100. Now one has to wonder if prices next week rally back to 8400 resistance? I like the oil sector here, have been buying DIG.

Looks like I was wrong on miners topping, higher prices seem likely there.

MK

agmark2007
01-30-2009, 01:26 PM
Cyclist,

Is there is a possibility of lower 800s Gold still in cards or we can forget about those days?

Thanks

kukucat
01-30-2009, 01:30 PM
8000 Here We Go....

pedroxico
01-30-2009, 02:17 PM
The 23rd is my turning point,read back and thy will find

Can you clarify your earlier projections?

Sparkles
01-30-2009, 02:28 PM
.......ouch, bit my tongue !!!

Bruce7Trader
01-30-2009, 02:45 PM
Nope, I love metals long term but risk of a big correction is quite high IMO, I am happy for now to be out.

MK

MK i believe from your posts you have been out on this rally! Why?

B7T

retro
01-30-2009, 02:53 PM
DJI is skating on thin ice. 8005 low so far today.

Do you guys think that we will breach 8K next week?

MetalsKing
01-30-2009, 03:18 PM
MK i believe from your posts you have been out on this rally! Why?

B7T

I think its a fifth wave up from from the Oct lows, that simple.

MK

retro
01-30-2009, 03:24 PM
Broken 8000, DJI 7995.92 :eek:

retro
01-30-2009, 03:26 PM
If the market closes below 8K today next week will be interesting. Only half an hour to go...

horton99
01-30-2009, 04:03 PM
didn't someone predict a rally about 45 minutes ago? Why was it removed? maybe your cycle inverted Bruce. Or maybe your chart was upside down?
TeeHee. Just joking bruce.;)

Bruce7Trader
01-30-2009, 04:11 PM
didn't someone predict a rally about 45 minutes ago? Why was it removed? maybe your cycle inverted Bruce. Or maybe your chart was upside down?
TeeHee. Just joking bruce.;)

We have a bit of margin selling so no need for me to add some kind of rally to the picture. I was out to lunch so thinking to watch the sell down and cleanup of accounts. Good looking wash be great for the rally to start the wave to 10,500 Dow monday morning. Check out that HUI close of 300 plus a bit! Gold breakout. Would'nt want to be short in this market!

B7T:eek:

greenbeard
01-30-2009, 04:37 PM
You are joking?



Would'nt want to be short in this market!

B7T:eek:

CaptainJack
01-30-2009, 04:43 PM
You are joking?

No, hes not, and hes actually right. Someone is betting almost 1 billion dollars that the market rebounds from here...Go look at afterhours SPY purchases, and your jaw will drop...They paid almost a dollar over close too...
10500 coming...YEN holding...DOW(bad indicator) is lower than the S & P was when last time DOW hit these levels(S & P) better indicator...

CaptainJack
01-30-2009, 04:45 PM
We have a bit of margin selling so no need for me to add some kind of rally to the picture. I was out to lunch so thinking to watch the sell down and cleanup of accounts. Good looking wash be great for the rally to start the wave to 10,500 Dow monday morning. Check out that HUI close of 300 plus a bit! Gold breakout. Would'nt want to be short in this market!

B7T:eek:

Yes, money changed hands today...That scare past 8000 triggered a ton of sell orders...Check out after hours on the SPY...4 purchases totalling 900 million dollars and they paid almost a dollar over market close...

greenbeard
01-30-2009, 05:00 PM
Well, that could be some serious stop loss selling. We could get a bounce in a couple weeks but it would be very short lived as the bad news is snowballing.



No, hes not, and hes actually right. Someone is betting almost 1 billion dollars that the market rebounds from here...Go look at afterhours SPY purchases, and your jaw will drop...They paid almost a dollar over close too...
10500 coming...YEN holding...DOW(bad indicator) is lower than the S & P was when last time DOW hit these levels(S & P) better indicator...

CaptainJack
01-30-2009, 05:15 PM
Well, that could be some serious stop loss selling. We could get a bounce in a couple weeks but it would be very short lived as the bad news is snowballing.

They came over level 2 as purchases...not sales...If they were sales someone would have bought that block direct...owner to owner...Or it sells in chunks..You will see the small sells appear(when done it will post the purchase)...Never the total amount sold...It usually matches...1000 shares here..1000 shares there...When your selling 20 million shares, it cant be sold at one price...You have to sell it in small chunks throughout the day..NO this was an accumulation purchase...They had to take a premium because of such a large amount wanted to purchase...Please go look and tell me if im wrong...I would love to know..You might be right...But i believe thats how large block purchases would work...You see the amount bought in level two, not the amount sold...

greenbeard
01-30-2009, 05:29 PM
I think I will take a front row seat next week. :)

They came over level 2 as purchases...not sales...If they were sales someone would have bought that block direct...owner to owner...Or it sells in chunks..You will see the small sells appear(when done it will post the purchase)...Never the total amount sold...It usually matches...1000 shares here..1000 shares there...When your selling 20 million shares, it cant be sold at one price...You have to sell it in small chunks throughout the day..NO this was an accumulation purchase...They had to take a premium because of such a large amount wanted to purchase...Please go look and tell me if im wrong...I would love to know..You might be right...But i believe thats how large block purchases would work...You see the amount bought in level two, not the amount sold...

CaptainJack
01-30-2009, 05:37 PM
I think I will take a front row seat next week. :)

What do you mean? I was actually hoping you would add input, as I do value your opinion..Only about one of 20 people on here who ever have anythign intelligent or usefull to say...

avalon
01-30-2009, 05:38 PM
As mentioned before in my earlier posts,the 30year bonds did something that it wouldn't do before ,fall with the mainmarket.This is the signal we have waited for ,we have arrived where inflation is becoming the tone in2009.Yesterday the bonds dropped in unison with the general market.Since Christmas it has lost 12%

Do you mean inflation is coming soon? And gold will be up????

bullau
01-31-2009, 12:46 AM
Could this be why the long term bonds are finally slipping as cyclist has mentioned/predicted and the precursor to financial armageddon?

For the life of me I can't believe the Chinese haven't sold or decreased their US reserves more substantially but I would hazard a guess they do not want to cause a stampede out of US treasury bonds.........but looks like finally it is starting to happen.........Got gold?

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Davos2009/idUSTRE50R5MW20090128

bullau
01-31-2009, 02:25 AM
Came across this interesting site late tonight and has raised the question:

What if we are wrong about the hyperinflationary period alot are expecting and therefore gold's meteoric rise?.........Afterall it is good to question oneself and play devil's advocate........This Karl Denninger seems to know what he is talking about and seems very knowledgeable.......His predictions for 2008 were pretty right on and has made some for 2009........See what you think.......Would really like your opinion cyclist if you have the time!

http://market-ticker.org/archives/134-The-Year-In-Review-And-a-Look-Ahead-for-2008.html

http://market-ticker.org/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html

Cyclist
01-31-2009, 05:19 AM
The pivot in the Dow is 8140,it touched 8400 two sessions past.It mightvery well touch the other end of the spectrum 7880 before it starts to get out of the gate in making some kind of a rally.The time window is closing quickly,recalculated the projected cyclical high between the 9th and 11th of March .

pedroxico
01-31-2009, 05:32 AM
The 23rd is my turning point,read back and thy will find

I am sorry to come back to the same issue but after so many posts on 23 turn point wouldn't it be nice if cyclist would give us an insight of his projection accuracy

Cyclist
01-31-2009, 05:41 AM
I am sorry to come back to the same issue but after so many posts on 23 turn point wouldn't it be nice if cyclist would give us an insight of his projection accuracy
The turning point was January 23rd for the mainmarket until the 29th and to go long after with the SRS for an initial position.

MGoldman
01-31-2009, 05:46 AM
Could this be why the long term bonds are finally slipping as cyclist has mentioned/predicted and the precursor to financial armageddon?

For the life of me I can't believe the Chinese haven't sold or decreased their US reserves more substantially but I would hazard a guess they do not want to cause a stampede out of US treasury bonds.........but looks like finally it is starting to happen.........Got gold?

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Davos2009/idUSTRE50R5MW20090128

...not no one...but how the heck would those holding sell when no secondary mkt.

GoldBoogie
01-31-2009, 05:54 AM
Hoping Europe is treating you kindly. :D

UNCANNY calls yet again this week. SRS performing to the letter so far - thank you! Do you expect a breather on Monday before another leg up? The technicals appear to suggest so...

Somewhat unrelated question - You've suggested previously getting out of the markets completely by later spring/early summer. Is this because you expect volatility to be so extreme that trading will be impossible but for only the best - OR - are you expecting an implosion of the markets/brokerages and lockdowns of exchanges etc by then?

Finally, do you have or plan to have your mining shares (or others holdings) in certificate form or book entry?

Once again, thank you for your time, patience and exceptional sharing.

All the best and travel safe!

SparkyF7
01-31-2009, 07:49 AM
The turning point was January 23rd for the mainmarket until the 29th and to go long after with the SRS for an initial position.
Cyclist: 2 questions if I may:

1) If "going long the SRS" means you are effectively taking an ultrashort position on Real Estate, do you simply feel that real estate stocks will fall or do you use SRS as a broader market proxy?

2) From an earlier post are you suggesting that there is likely more downside in oil and gold stocks until March 9-11 or upside?

Thanks. I am going to work at a medical clinic in a 3rd world country for a week and your guidance for last week helped me pay my way and some.

Cyclist
01-31-2009, 08:04 AM
Cyclist: 2 questions if I may:

1) If "going long the SRS" means you are effectively taking an ultrashort position on Real Estate, do you simply feel that real estate stocks will fall or do you use SRS as a broader market proxy?

2) From an earlier post are you suggesting that there is likely more downside in oil and gold stocks until March 9-11 or upside?

Thanks. I am going to work at a medical clinic in a 3rd world country for a week and your guidance for last week helped me pay my way and some.

SRS should be seen as a day trading affair,in oil we will see after Monday
more downside to the middle of February.There will be enough action when you return.May you have a done well in the interim.I support "doctors without borders ".

SparkyF7
01-31-2009, 08:14 AM
Thanks Cyclist. I'm going to be helping in construction/general labour at a medical clinic for 8 days - very different than my usual day-job. BTW - I think "Doctors w/o Boarders" do great work. Keep it up. I've seen the results of their great efforts in Africa and Asia.

AGoldhamster
01-31-2009, 08:31 AM
Did another update on cyclists turn dates

In my thread: https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=31564

SpiderMan
01-31-2009, 08:32 AM
Cyclist, what about gold and silver?
you said there was a local peak...
now expecting a pullback before the last rally to 1000 on the second week of February?

flags
01-31-2009, 10:00 AM
Came across this interesting site late tonight and has raised the question:

What if we are wrong about the hyperinflationary period alot are expecting and therefore gold's meteoric rise?.........Afterall it is good to question oneself and play devil's advocate........This Karl Denninger seems to know what he is talking about and seems very knowledgeable.......His predictions for 2008 were pretty right on and has made some for 2009........See what you think.......Would really like your opinion cyclist if you have the time!

http://market-ticker.org/archives/134-The-Year-In-Review-And-a-Look-Ahead-for-2008.html

http://market-ticker.org/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html

Interesting, but i wouldn't say he was so accurate. For example, he predicted for 2008 that 'The story in 2008 will be defaults on prime mortgages.' This isn't even close is it? Wouldn't you say that the story for 2008 was more the de-leveraging of the hedge funds leading to a collapse in commodity prices and global stock markets? ....or something along this theme.

He says that for 2009, precious metals will not be a safe heaven...without any explanation of why he says so. In fact, this would have been a brilliant comment for 2008 (at least after Q1) but he never mentioned it. In fact he missed the whole commodity collapse story, even oil, for 2008.

Overall, he's one of these guys that says enough general comments that he can make himself look correct no matter what happens. When you look more closely at what really happened though, as i've given a few examples above, he essentially missed the boat in 2008. I'm betting he'll be way off in 2009 as well. In fact, most of his 2009 predictions are a nice fit for 2008.

Plus, he 'pads his stats' as i call it. In 2008 he predicts the recreational sector will collapse. i mean, c'mon. Let's stay focused on the big picture.

It will be very interesting to see what happens in 2009 in the currency markets, americas debt financing, increasing global tensions and some of these themes. I have to believe these will be very bullish for gold.

avalon
01-31-2009, 02:21 PM
Cyclist, how about now, do you think it's good entry point for gold? 92x...
??

Bruce7Trader
02-01-2009, 04:28 PM
Broken 8000, DJI 7995.92 :eek:

The floor is in on HUI @ 300 and Dow holds 8,000 for a much higher open monday morning. Shorts will be looking for a window to exit. Protection talk from the USA will add to pressure on the Dollar as we will see higher oil this week and Gold continue to breakout. I would'nt touch any of the banks as the miners are near a free run for the market bull.

B7T:eek:

AGoldhamster
02-01-2009, 04:41 PM
The floor is in on HUI @ 300 and Dow holds 8,000 for a much higher open monday morning. Shorts will be looking for a window to exit. Protection talk from the USA will add to pressure on the Dollar as we will see higher oil this week and Gold continue to breakout. I would'nt touch any of the banks as the miners are near a free run for the market bull.

B7T:eek:
"for a much higher open monday morning" ... based on what?

Bruce7Trader
02-01-2009, 05:18 PM
"for a much higher open monday morning" ... based on what?

Margin selling late friday after many accounts were weak due to the banks for the last several weeks of declines. Brokerage houses were cleaning accounts and some of the Golds were sold as well as other miners. Shorts know this as well and they will see this as a good chance to get out of jail. Would you want to hold USD cash No not a chance. USD is nosebleed high my friend and with the Golds making the first move on the daily we will see a rush out of USD to start this week.

Get out of all dollars soon as you can buy stock oil,miners not the banks.

Dow will see new highs this year from the rush out of cash!

B7T:eek:

Bruce7Trader
02-01-2009, 05:28 PM
Bruce wrote: "Would you want to hold USD cash No not a chance."

What do you mean that U.S, dollar cash is not worth holding. I can see the dollar losing strength ; that is why I buy physical gold and have some miners. But, in U.S., you must have U.S. dollar cash to pay bills and buy things -- right? Please enlighten me why I should not have available U.S. dollar cash. TIA

I don't live in the US so i don't need USD cash flow. For you i would look at getting out of the US. Protectionism is on it's way. Move to Asia!

B7T

Bruce7Trader
02-01-2009, 05:44 PM
I speak , read, and write English ; only. Really, I am too old to be moving to another continent. So, what do you suggest for those of us who must remain in U.S. ? TIA

Montana! and some Canadian dollars. Second best how about a move to Canada Saskatchewan would be the place of choice.

B7T:eek:

sphinx888
02-01-2009, 05:59 PM
Which is the warmest state in canada ... in average?
My daughter considers to go to canada - but not where is cold, but the warmest possible.
Maybe - who knows i'll "check" canada too - for (early) retirement.

That would be British Columbia, especially Victoria, and Vancouver.

goose1
02-01-2009, 06:02 PM
Which is the warmest state in canada ... in average?
My daughter considers to go to canada - but not where is cold, but the warmest possible.
Maybe - who knows i'll "check" canada too - for (early) retirement.

I live on the West Coast of Canada, Vancouver BC.We get lots of rain usually not much snow. We don't go below 0c very often. If you like to ski or hike we have the mountains and if you like to boat we have the ocean. Nice place to live.

retro
02-01-2009, 06:11 PM
I speak , read, and write English ; only. Really, I am too old to be moving to another continent. So, what do you suggest for those of us who must remain in U.S. ? TIA

A man who is highly self sufficient is one that always has options. If you can afford to buy a cottage with some land and a small work shop and develop it. Property is tangible and land can be worked.

flying
02-01-2009, 06:27 PM
I thought we were keeping this thread clear for Cyclist :confused:
I almost posted a reply to the land Q's when I realized.
Now I guess I have posted more rubbish here too....but wanted to help remind others.

Lets post non related to cyclist thread stuff else where
Thanks

dsharp9000
02-01-2009, 06:27 PM
I don't live in the US so i don't need USD cash flow. For you i would look at getting out of the US. Protectionism is on it's way. Move to Asia!

B7T

is canada a good place to move? I am seriously thinking of leaving US.

edit: read ahead a little and seems to indicate canada might be good. Where i live in US it is cold so use to it (im one of those actually hoping for globing warming); though vancouver sounds nice; wonder how expensive it for house/land there.

also apologize for posting non cyclist stuff here; though "think" it might relate somewhat as where you live effects investment; would like to here cyclist opinion on where to live...hopefully, this question is not offensive to other forum members with regard to posting in this thread; but is never question i think posed to cyclist?

anyway, i appreciate the lower noise in this thread but do like some noise and think this might be an important issue for consideration by some; but could be wrong.

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 04:49 AM
Pattern expansion will give gold a sideways movement till the fifth of February
to fulfill its 4th wave down and the start of its 5th wave.My projection for now for gold .
While the general market is in a sagging motion and the Yen rising.Again the
most conservative investment position is to be in gold coins and the Yen.

AGoldhamster
02-02-2009, 05:33 AM
Pattern expansion will give gold a sideways movement till the fifth of February
to fulfill its 4th wave down and the start of its 5th wave.My projection for now for gold .
While the general market is in a sagging motion and the Yen rising.Again the
most conservative investment position is to be in gold coins and the Yen.
Cyclist - HELP !!!

I don't see your count - - no way!
Please where are your 1, 2 of 1-3-5 ?

For clarification - pls see the big chart in my lastest post (actually)
https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=517035&postcount=626

What if the big C down for indices is just in the making?
Won't that pull metals and commodities along?
No way it starts earlier than expected?

rodin
02-02-2009, 06:27 AM
Cyclist - HELP !!!

I don't see your count - - no way!
Please where are your 1, 2 of 1-3-5 ?

For clarification - pls see the big chart in my lastest post (actually)
https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=517035&postcount=626

What if the big C down for indices is just in the making?
Won't that pull metals and commodities along?
No way it starts earlier than expected?

I am 100% with u here AGH. 5 waves up complete

edit

or damn close to

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 06:34 AM
Cyclist - HELP !!!

I don't see your count - - no way!
Please where are your 1, 2 of 1-3-5 ?

For clarification - pls see the big chart in my lastest post (actually)
https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=517035&postcount=626

What if the big C down for indices is just in the making?
Won't that pull metals and commodities along?
No way it starts earlier than expected?

No ,this is sideway action of gold,expecting 900 to hold and to make its final run into the second week of February.I will give further explanation later in the day in how the count is arrived at.Gold is still on track to make a stab at 1035

rodin
02-02-2009, 06:37 AM
No ,this is sideway action of gold,expecting 900 to hold and to make its final run into the second week of February.I will give further explanation later in the day in how the count is arrived at.Gold is still on track to make a stab at 1035

Look forward to this.

AGoldhamster
02-02-2009, 06:41 AM
No ,this is sideway action of gold,expecting 900 to hold and to make its final run into the second week of February.I will give further explanation later in the day in how the count is arrived at.Gold is still on track to make a stab at 1035
Thx cyclist ... 103x is also what my guts and resources tell - rather clearly. It's just the count that makes me worry.

Where is your final support line - where would you change your mind?
For me 906 and 900 are the lines of support. Below 900 da bear are in control again, with 894 slight support and 888 and 880 next stronger supports for da bulls - not?

All prices for @GC

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 06:46 AM
Cyclist wrote: "Again the most conservative investment position is to be in gold coins and the Yen."

I have the gold coins covered, but how does a U.S, citizen buy, hold, and eventually spend the yen? TIA

Check out HSBC bank,you can transfer balances across different currencies.

AGoldhamster
02-02-2009, 06:48 AM
I am 100% with u here AGH. 5 waves up complete

edit

or damn close to
_ker is too with us.
Realized that AFTER i set up my count.

Rodin - is there a place or posts - where i, a lightgreen EW-greenhorn still :o , can view your count?

edit: Cyclist posted a comment regarding the mentioned chart in my thread.:)

edt2: with already a reply - and another question of course :o

Master Shake
02-02-2009, 07:08 AM
Check out HSBC bank,you can transfer balances across different currencies.

I'm not a trader, so I don't post here; just read for the insight. However, regarding holding yen, what do you think about holding "physical" yen, i.e changing USD at a bank or airport? Obviously, not something you'd do for a large amount, but I have several thousand $ in the house that I pulled out of Wachovia when things were looking bad in October.

swampy
02-02-2009, 07:19 AM
No ,this is sideway action of gold,expecting 900 to hold and to make its final run into the second week of February.I will give further explanation later in the day in how the count is arrived at.Gold is still on track to make a stab at 1035

cyclist, when you do post your count, can you also post the larger macro count of where we are and where we are going (with rough time frames). thx

swampy

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 07:19 AM
I'm not a trader, so I don't post here; just read for the insight. However, regarding holding yen, what do you think about holding "physical" yen, i.e changing USD at a bank or airport? Obviously, not something you'd do for a large amount, but I have several thousand $ in the house that I pulled out of Wachovia when things were looking bad in October.

Unless you keep the Yen as a longtermhold ,it would not make sense with a small amount.

mad mad world
02-02-2009, 09:02 AM
Pattern expansion will give gold a sideways movement till the fifth of February
to fulfill its 4th wave down and the start of its 5th wave.My projection for now for gold .
While the general market is in a sagging motion and the Yen rising.Again the
most conservative investment position is to be in gold coins and the Yen.

Hello Cyclist,

Living in Canada, do you think it is good to convert Canadian $ in to Yen ?
What will be your target price of Yen to be and in what time frame ?

I am in need of your advise about the tax free saving account where Canadian can invest max $5000/year. All gain in this account will be tax free.
What do you suggest to invent in this account ? ( ie GIC, Bond, share etc ).

I have my RRSP with Investor Group and complete protfolio lost 38% of its value this year...:mad:
IG has invested my RRSP in bond market.....

Thank you for all your help, I am sure this will help other Canadian reading this forum too....

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 09:13 AM
Hello Cyclist,

Living in Canada, do you think it is good to convert Canadian $ in to Yen ?
What will be your target price of Yen to be and in what time frame ?

I am in need of your advise about the tax free saving account where Canadian can invest max $5000/year. All gain in this account will be tax free.
What do you suggest to invent in this account ? ( ie GIC, Bond, share etc ).

I have my RRSP with Investor Group and complete protfolio lost 38% of its value this year...:mad:
IG has invested my RRSP in bond market.....

Thank you for all your help, I am sure this will help other Canadian reading this forum too....
If you don't trade than an taxfree account in Yen with HSBC might be the ticket or you buy FXY units and park it.
Else you wait and make a longterm bet in gold and oil when the supply destruction has run its course

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 09:16 AM
cyclist, when you do post your count, can you also post the larger macro count of where we are and where we are going (with rough time frames). thx

swampy

sometimes end of the month

rodin
02-02-2009, 09:25 AM
_ker is too with us.
Realized that AFTER i set up my count.

Rodin - is there a place or posts - where i, a lightgreen EW-greenhorn still :o , can view your count?

edit: Cyclist posted a comment regarding the mentioned chart in my thread.:)

edt2: with already a reply - and another question of course :o

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachments/metals/47294d1233584515-gold-calls-long-term-medium-term-intraday-calls-gold-here-gold-paths.png

MetalsKing
02-02-2009, 09:28 AM
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachments/metals/47294d1233584515-gold-calls-long-term-medium-term-intraday-calls-gold-here-gold-paths.png

Amigo, there is one heck of a lot of wave overlap in that count and this big rally from October, it could be a B wave, I am being very careful.

MK

Bruce7Trader
02-02-2009, 09:31 AM
MK you have so much fear these days and so many have missed the HUI rally of the last 10 weeks! Look at the beautiful sell down and the charts are ready for a big move later today that much higher!

B7T:eek:

rodin
02-02-2009, 09:32 AM
Amigo, there is one heck of a lot of wave overlap in that count and this big rally from October, it could be a B wave, I am being very careful.

MK

3 may have started later from Dec low - there was a 5 wave decline into this which could be c of 2

But U R correct - multiple interpretations are possible

edit

there is -ve divergence MACD but there was also same before last spurt to 1030. The red channel is interesting - a school of thought says if a channel is broken and then broken back price once more traverses that channel

Zachman
02-02-2009, 09:37 AM
Hi Cyclist,

Could I ask you what your preferred instrument would be for a medium to long term bullish play on oil once we get to your projected low window of 2nd week of Febraury, e.g. USO for the more conservative approach or HEU, DXO for a leveraged effect (taking into account the potential eroding effect of leveraged ETF's), options, oil stocks, a combination of all of these or something else altogether? Futures keep me awake at night.

Also, and again for a mid to long term play post your anticipated March correction, if unable to purchase physical gold, (due to supply constrainst, storage costs/risks, or current FX rates), do you have a preferred US or Canadian 'tracking' instrument or ETF for Gold?,

Much appreciated

horton99
02-02-2009, 09:56 AM
Originally Posted by inframan
Cyclist a quick question, if I remeber correctly you were predicting the possibility for inflation, possibly hyperinflation, is that what you meant by 2010/11 blow off? Then on to deflation untill 2014?

thanks

Cyclist response:

Yes,we are experiencing a deflationary spat,turning into inflation in 2009 ,and into hyperinflation 2010/11 and a bust into 2014.
Prolifiration in credit started with companies and people and now the government gets into the act.

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 10:09 AM
The pivot in the Dow is 8140,it touched 8400 two sessions past.It mightvery well touch the other end of the spectrum 7880 before it starts to get out of the gate in making some kind of a rally.The time window is closing quickly,recalculated the projected cyclical high between the 9th and 11th of March .

The Dow hit 7880,closed short positions.Standing aside

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 10:13 AM
Originally Posted by inframan
Cyclist a quick question, if I remeber correctly you were predicting the possibility for inflation, possibly hyperinflation, is that what you meant by 2010/11 blow off? Then on to deflation untill 2014?

thanks

Cyclist response:

Yes,we are experiencing a deflationary spat,turning into inflation in 2009 ,and into hyperinflation 2010/11 and a bust into 2014.
Prolifiration in credit started with companies and people and now the government gets into the act.

yes that are my projections

kukucat
02-02-2009, 10:18 AM
duplicated posts

Sorry guys

kukucat
02-02-2009, 10:23 AM
[QUOTE=kukucat;517305]Cyclist,

What do you think about BVN....

supporting point @18.0x

Do you think gold stocks will top out before the pull back for Gold after the 2nd week of Feb?

Thanks

MetalsKing
02-02-2009, 10:52 AM
The Dow hit 7880,closed short positions.Standing aside

Very nice forecast on that 7880 level Cyclist, the stock market is difficult to predict at this time, I am slowly accumulating DIG and DXO. I think gold is going back down to 880-890 at least.

MK

Bruce7Trader
02-02-2009, 10:54 AM
Very nice forecast on that 7880 level Cyclist, the stock market is difficult to predict at this time, I am slowly accumulating DIG and DXO. I think gold is going back down to 880-890 at least.

MK

Gold just filled the Gap and we go higher here now we can move to 940 after filling this last gap.

Going much higher now!!

B7T:eek:

bullau
02-02-2009, 10:58 AM
Gold just filled the Gap and we go higher here now we can move to 940 after filling this last gap.

Going much higher now!!

B7T:eek:

Bruce.....We all know you like gold and gold stocks........No need to pump constantly..........We all do as well.......That is why we are here on this site........cheers.

MetalsKing
02-02-2009, 10:59 AM
Gold just filled the Gap and we go higher here now we can move to 940 after filling this last gap.

Going much higher now!!

B7T:eek:

If you say so but I think we go down to 880-890 muy pronto.

MK

AGoldhamster
02-02-2009, 11:08 AM
Gold just filled the Gap and we go higher here now we can move to 940 after filling this last gap.

Going much higher now!!

B7T:eek:
Bruce - i'm not aware of the gap you are talking about - mind to clarify?

edit: or did you talk about todays intraday low?

Bruce7Trader
02-02-2009, 11:45 AM
If you say so but I think we go down to 880-890 muy pronto.

MK

MK run some lines my friend i think your ruler is crooked! If your short from 910 this morning your in big trouble. Gold is going much higher! Keep posted i'm excited to see Gold Break higher and move to 1,150 first target after 970.

B7T:eek:

avalon
02-02-2009, 11:48 AM
MK run some lines my friend i think your ruler is crooked! If your short from 910 this morning your in big trouble. Gold is going much higher! Keep posted i'm excited to see Gold Break higher and move to 1,150 first target after 970.

B7T:eek:

time frame please?

SparkyF7
02-02-2009, 11:51 AM
Cyclist: Like most readers here I'm always interested to know what positions you are holding and today you said you covered your shorts when the Dow held 7880. My question is, given that you covered your shorts this morning, what key points or moves or volumes are you studying today to look for your next position?

Bruce7Trader
02-02-2009, 11:53 AM
time frame please?

Yes 970 in 48 hours and 1,150 potential target 12 weeks!

B7T:eek:

Cyclist
02-02-2009, 12:20 PM
Cyclist: Like most readers here I'm always interested to know what positions you are holding and today you said you covered your shorts when the Dow held 7880. My question is, given that you covered your shorts this morning, what key points or moves or volumes are you studying today to look for your next position?

100% back int cash for my trading capital.Neutral at the moment.Looking forward for oil to hit the mat.With Obama's restructuring plan ,oil will have reached its lows in a couple of weeks.Just patience

BlackSea
02-02-2009, 12:24 PM
Cyclist,

Just picked up some HAU today @ 20

Do you think it's good to load up, or do you see it lower short term?

bullau
02-02-2009, 12:27 PM
I assume everyone sees we are in a descending channel last three days on all indices.........Need to break it to the upside I assume or else a test of the November lows is in the cards in short course........would everyone agree?

Hitting uptrend line right now.......probably heading lower to test day's lows.

majormarine
02-02-2009, 12:28 PM
Hi Cyclist,

Do you have any projection for Yen in May 2009?

I heard that Yen might have a spike to 85 in late March, due to the hedging of the Japanese exporters. Also, the Japanese investors have been cashing out their foreign investment, and then there is still the unwinding of the carry trade.

I guess what I am looking for is an entry point for Yen 'til May. :)

MetalsKing
02-02-2009, 12:29 PM
MK run some lines my friend i think your ruler is crooked! If your short from 910 this morning your in big trouble. Gold is going much higher! Keep posted i'm excited to see Gold Break higher and move to 1,150 first target after 970.

B7T:eek:

I never said I was short, I don't use rulers and I think we hit 880-890 by late Wednesday, I am out of all gold or gold stock positions as previously stated here.

MK

bullau
02-02-2009, 12:47 PM
AS I wrote my last post looks like the indices broke above the descending trendlines.........Could have a rally here or is it a false breakout?

These markets are tough.......sigh

MetalsKing
02-02-2009, 01:08 PM
I never said I was short, I don't use rulers and I think we hit 880-890 by late Wednesday, I am out of all gold or gold stock positions as previously stated here.

MK

Remember Friday that mining stocks did not comfirm the new gold and silver highs and are very weak today, take it for what it's worth but that's a negative IMO.

MK

horton99
02-02-2009, 01:57 PM
Looks like the 4th test of the 7900 support since 23rd. 3 of them today. Likely to go through this time IMO. And I was about ready to go long. Very tough markets.

carpenterman
02-02-2009, 02:04 PM
Remember Friday that mining stocks did not comfirm the new gold and silver highs and are very weak today, take it for what it's worth but that's a negative IMO.

MK


MetalKing, you are on the ball!

MetalsKing
02-02-2009, 02:08 PM
MetalKing, you are on the ball!

If one observes from an unbiased viewpoint then the best decisions on market direction are often made.

MK

CaptainJack
02-02-2009, 02:14 PM
I see the main markets as stubborn to go down AFTER market opens, but more than willing to go down between days, and at the open...Says PPT is defending a point...Waiting for news to lift...How long will they defend is anybodies guess...Added to long S & P near bottom today...UNG rebounded nicely, and DBA is hanging tough..Miners are getting wacked, but still holding...Not hedging till gold breaks 880...

horton99
02-02-2009, 02:18 PM
If one observes from an unbiased viewpoint then the best decisions on market direction are often made.

MK

Exactly right! I was just reading this from the emotionfreetradingbook.pdf that someone posted a link to a couple of months back. Here is an exerpt that I was just reading.

Seven characteristics of an objective person (as related to markets):

"1. You feel no pressure to do anything.

2. You have no feeling of fear.

3. You feel no sense of rejection.

4. There is no right or wrong.

5. You recognize that this is what the market is telling me, this is what I do.

6. You can observe the market from the perspective as if you were not in a position even when you are.

7. You are not focused on money, but on the structure of the market.

If you can see any of the above qualities in yourself, you're on the right road. Again to release yourself from the need to be right. If you constantly need to be right, you are unfortunately in the wrong business. To be a successful trader, you don't always need to be right but you always need to be objective."

bullau
02-02-2009, 02:22 PM
I see the main markets as stubborn to go down AFTER market opens, but more than willing to go down between days, and at the open...Says PPT is defending a point...Waiting for news to lift...How long will they defend is anybodies guess...Added to long S & P near bottom today...UNG rebounded nicely, and DBA is hanging tough..Miners are getting wacked, but still holding...Not hedging till gold breaks 880...

You have bigger kuhana's than me Captain........I wouldn't dare go long here.........Trend is down.....Every breakout seems to be a false one as todayl ooks like it is panning out and much more risk to the downside than upside potential.

As well, noticed gold stockies are not performing well since Friday.....hedging with HGD since Thursday.

Obediah
02-02-2009, 02:27 PM
Looks like the 4th test of the 7900 support since 23rd. 3 of them today. Likely to go through this time IMO. And I was about ready to go long. Very tough markets.

Just looking at the layoffs alone which is hard to do, alone, it is in my mind suicidal to go long (stocks) now; just don't see things improving, but rather getting much worse over next 3 months at least. Of course could be wrong have been B4; it makes no sense when market moves up 1000, but it does make sense when it goes back down.

I think we we will look back on today in year & say those were the good ol days, with the exception possibly 50/50 in gold- silver.

SpiderMan
02-02-2009, 02:29 PM
just seen a talk-show on the markets...
a reliable expert expects a fibo turn date on Feb. 15-16.
that must be a low...

carpenterman
02-02-2009, 02:33 PM
If one observes from an unbiased viewpoint then the best decisions on market direction are often made.

MK

Along these same lines, I would like to recommend an essay that has really helped my undertanding of emotions and their applications to swing trading.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_012909.html

Don't read the version on Kitco's site. It has been drastically edited.

SpiderMan
02-02-2009, 03:11 PM
just seen a talk-show on the markets...
a reliable expert expects a fibo turn date on Feb. 15-16.
that must be a low...

Hey, Cyclist, you also have a fibo turn date like that???

it might be a low for stoxx, oil, etc, but a high for gold...?:confused:

bullau
02-02-2009, 03:30 PM
Although the indices are above the descending trendlines of the past few days again right now.......the BKX is still stuck in the downtrend and hasn't yet broken out above..........This is the key as per cyclist........Otherwise all the rest is noise.........doubtful it will happen at close but may follow through tomorrow or head south again.

BeeTea
02-02-2009, 04:07 PM
No ,this is sideway action of gold,expecting 900 to hold and to make its final run into the second week of February.I will give further explanation later in the day in how the count is arrived at.Gold is still on track to make a stab at 1035

Cyclist -- Are you still projecting a new down for Oil this month, even though the Dow did not turn higher as you projected? I am trying to figure out, if one projection misses, do all others "reverse polarity' on the turndate or just what is now expected? The price chart for oil looks like a rounded bottom Cup. But the oscillators (MACD in particular) point to a big wash out coming still. What are your targets and in what order -- high now, lower later or low soon and high forever after?
Thank you!

petruchio2100
02-02-2009, 05:28 PM
Cyclist, I went to Singapore some time ago and opened an account with the HSBC branch there, but I haven't deposited anything with them for fears about their solvency: based on what little I've seen of their operations they are prime candidates for overexposure to complex financial instruments. Ditto re: FXY: is it safe to assume for the long haul that they won't renege on you?

Thank you on both counts!...

tothemoon
02-02-2009, 06:10 PM
The Dow hit 7880,closed short positions.Standing aside

Wow!

Bounced off 7880 multiple times today. Amazing call!

Was this a gann number or based on short term cycles work??

CaptainJack
02-02-2009, 07:45 PM
Wow!

Bounced off 7880 multiple times today. Amazing call!

Was this a gann number or based on short term cycles work??

Hey everyone, I made a mistake and poster here on accident today...Im brewing some fresh coffee in cyclist II...I might bring donuts if you hurry over...Lets leave this free for his calls only!! :D

ddn3f
02-03-2009, 07:21 AM
Cyclist

You says "The pivot in the Dow is 8140" and that we will trade between 7880 and 8400. I understand that the distance between 8140 and 8400 is the same as the distance between 8140 and 7880. Does breaking 8400 or 7880 confirms a direction for a trend? Also what is the significance of 8140 that we should be looking at besides being a resistance/support?

Cyclist
02-03-2009, 08:02 AM
Cyclist -- Are you still projecting a new down for Oil this month, even though the Dow did not turn higher as you projected? I am trying to figure out, if one projection misses, do all others "reverse polarity' on the turndate or just what is now expected? The price chart for oil looks like a rounded bottom Cup. But the oscillators (MACD in particular) point to a big wash out coming still. What are your targets and in what order -- high now, lower later or low soon and high forever after?
Thank you!

Oil is ready to take off ,it is scraping the lows right now,another week to wait.
The general market will be still going down another thre days while oil and gold are rising
I marked the 5th as a low for gold and it possibly could be also be a low for the Ag and oil market.

Cyclist
02-03-2009, 08:08 AM
Cyclist, I went to Singapore some time ago and opened an account with the HSBC branch there, but I haven't deposited anything with them for fears about their solvency: based on what little I've seen of their operations they are prime candidates for overexposure to complex financial instruments. Ditto re: FXY: is it safe to assume for the long haul that they won't renege on you?

Thank you on both counts!...

For me HSBC is as safe as the rest of the non American banks,you can hold Yen short term bank notes , Yen short term corporate notes or cash acount.
Incase that the financial world becomes a shipwreck ,it would be better to stay with gold coins

MetalsKing
02-03-2009, 08:13 AM
Cyclist are you thinking that 7880 level will hold and we'll get a big rally from here? or are you expecting a test of the Oct lows? Thanks in advance

MK

Cyclist
02-03-2009, 08:13 AM
Wow!

Bounced off 7880 multiple times today. Amazing call!

Was this a gann number or based on short term cycles work??

8140 is a Gann number ,mentioned the number before

SpiderMan
02-03-2009, 08:16 AM
Cyclist,

do you expect a peak for gold on 14-15 Feb., and a low for stoxx on that date?

Cyclist
02-03-2009, 08:20 AM
Cyclist are you thinking that 7880 level will hold and we'll get a big rally from here? or are you expecting a test of the Oct lows? Thanks in advance

MK

7880 could hold till the end of the week .Unless the rally will take us over the 8400 ,I expect the 7880 to be breached next week to the next support of 7500.We could see wild price moves within the 7880/8400 band if it doesn't
get taken out at either side.

MetalsKing
02-03-2009, 08:23 AM
7880 could hold till the end of the week .Unless the rally will take us over the 8400 ,I expect the 7880 to be breached next week to the next support of 7500.We could see wild price moves within the 7880/8400 band if it doesn't
get taken out at either side.

Thanks again, when is your next important stock market turn date?

MK