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GoldSilverbvg
06-13-2011, 11:39 AM
Just wondering,where do you guys think the GSR is headed? I swapped a little silver for gold when the GSR went to 33 (I did not wait long enough for it to reach 31 :( ). I am thinking about switching back to silver in anticipation that I can switch back to gold again in the future. What do you guys think about this idea? My plan was to maybe try to wait until the GSR reached 50 or 60 before switching back to silver... Do you guys think it is going to go back down to that level?

Numisgold
06-13-2011, 11:45 AM
I can see the GSR getting back to about 50 where various levels of short and long term resistance are. That could coincide with one more push upwards later this summer. To get much higher than that will take a summer/fall washout something similar to 2008. Personally I don't see that kind of blowout occuring again. Those GSR lines of support should hold. GSR will eventually get all the way down to the 15-25 range, possibly lower but that could take 6 months to 6 years.

Numisgold

coindog
06-13-2011, 02:00 PM
you made a good trade when you did, very rare to hit an exact bottom. I think a 50/1 GSR is a good target but don't get hung up on the exact number, if it gets close do it going back. if it gets higher do another one. always better to take a good gain than to hold out for the max and maybe miss out. I don't go with this has to hit 20/1 thinking. that doesn't take demand and human behavior/thinking into account.

GoldSilverbvg
06-13-2011, 04:29 PM
you made a good trade when you did, very rare to hit an exact bottom. I think a 50/1 GSR is a good target but don't get hung up on the exact number, if it gets close do it going back. if it gets higher do another one. always better to take a good gain than to hold out for the max and maybe miss out. I don't go with this has to hit 20/1 thinking. that doesn't take demand and human behavior/thinking into account.

Thanks for the advice :) . I agree, trying to hold out for the max can be risky. You can miss a lot of good opportunities if you try.

Prospector
06-14-2011, 07:05 AM
I swapped at 47:1, not foreseeing anything lower. When the ratio got down below 40 some friends strongly urged me to swap back, but I refused. I argued that if they couldn't advise me before I traded, I would be a fool to follow their advice after the fact. They aren't friends any more, and I still hold gold.

Remember, it costs you about 10% to 15% to change your position. You can fritter away three years of gains in a hurry at that rate. What you do is to buy more silver if you think the ratio is going down some more, or buy more gold if it seems to be going up. Or just keep your powder dry and see if you get a bargain this summer.

namwalker
06-14-2011, 10:40 AM
I swapped at 47:1, not foreseeing anything lower. When the ratio got down below 40 some friends strongly urged me to swap back, but I refused. I argued that if they couldn't advise me before I traded, I would be a fool to follow their advice after the fact. They aren't friends any more, and I still hold gold.

Remember, it costs you about 10% to 15% to change your position. You can fritter away three years of gains in a hurry at that rate. What you do is to buy more silver if you think the ratio is going down some more, or buy more gold if it seems to be going up. Or just keep your powder dry and see if you get a bargain this summer.

Okay, being new to PM (and not trying to change topic) the gist of the conversation so far is that when the GSR is rising buy gold and falling to buy silver. However, where I got lost was the aspect of using the GSR as an indicator of when to trade one for the other. From Goldsilverbvg post the time to trade silver for gold is when the ratio is falling. Then the inverse trading gold for silver when the ratio is rising. Am I correct so far? Did I sum up the conversation correctly?

I was recently thinking of trading some silver for gold a couple of days ago. Given the current state of the GSR then my plan would have been a mistake? Right?:confused: :confused:

GoldSilverbvg
06-15-2011, 12:00 AM
Okay, being new to PM (and not trying to change topic) the gist of the conversation so far is that when the GSR is rising buy gold and falling to buy silver. However, where I got lost was the aspect of using the GSR as an indicator of when to trade one for the other. From Goldsilverbvg post the time to trade silver for gold is when the ratio is falling. Then the inverse trading gold for silver when the ratio is rising. Am I correct so far? Did I sum up the conversation correctly?

I was recently thinking of trading some silver for gold a couple of days ago. Given the current state of the GSR then my plan would have been a mistake? Right?:confused: :confused:

Right. When the GSR is falling (such as when it fell to 31) that would be the time to trade Silver for Gold. When the GSR is rising would be the time to trade back to Silver. When the GSR is low it takes less silver to equal an ounce of gold. When the GSR is high it takes more silver to equal an ounce of gold.

I do not know if it would be a mistake to be trading right now or not. The GSR has been much higher than it is now, but it could have the potential to move lower as well (sorry for the ambiguity here :p ). I would not consider now to be an awful time to switch. I think that in April of last year the GSR was around 60 - it is in the 40s now. But a more ideal time could present itself.

I am definately no expert myself.

mazotka
06-15-2011, 08:32 AM
When Baron Rothschild (sp) was asked about his investing success,
he replied that he never buys at the bottom or sells at the top.
Your swich at GSR 33 was brilliant...

Audi.