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View Full Version : [07-27-2011] I would take profits here.


HomerJ
07-27-2011, 01:12 PM
Or at least stop buying until after the debt ceiling "agreement" is reached.
More and more people are talking about defaulting so that is not going to happen, I think a deal will be made by the weekend, likely overnight to screw all of you out of selling until it drops like a stone.
Sold all my GLD calls.

silverone
07-27-2011, 01:14 PM
i don't think they will have a deal worked until after Aug the 2end..

HomerJ
07-27-2011, 01:16 PM
There is no way this is going to drag that long and the possibility of this passing the deadline is almost nonexistant.
One more down day like this on the DOW/S&P and it will be done.

silverone
07-27-2011, 01:18 PM
There is no way this is going to drag that long and the possibility of this passing the deadline is almost nonexistant.
One more down day like this on the DOW/S&P and it will be done.

nope. not going to happen.. those people are idiots!

seascape195
07-27-2011, 01:20 PM
Aug. 2nd does not mean default day.. but its being painted that way, if no agreement, it means some domestic trimming, plenty of govt workers that can be layed off for starters.

Daylight Fading
07-27-2011, 01:49 PM
nope. not going to happen.. those people are idiots!

I think you are right.... they will screw over this country just to not give in to the other side! I am so sick of this theater.

galtbob
07-27-2011, 01:50 PM
Everything is speculation. I don't think anyone including Obama has any idea how much money they have. We can talk about laying off govt workers, but would they have to be laid off now to save money on next weeks payroll? Or monthly for some people. They are driving this train right up to the cliff at full speed, and hoping someone puts up a bridge before they get there. All they know how to do is more of the same. They have not even had a budget since Obama took office. We shall see.

Jakester4
07-27-2011, 01:58 PM
I just read an article that many people are taking the profits on both gold and silver. I do not believe they will default so that will be tough on us silver owners.

fraxinus
07-27-2011, 01:59 PM
Raising the debt ceiling improves the US government's longer-term capacity to honour its debt obligations? :rolleyes:

Gold Standard
07-27-2011, 04:06 PM
We all know a debt ceiling increase will occur. That is already baked into the cake.

A kick the can down the road deal will do little to convince the market that the Federal government is solvent. If so, I expect little in the way of a PM smackdown.

A deal that radically reduces spending in the here and now (as opposed to wind and smoke down the road reductions) could knock PMs down substantially. I doubt if the Dear Leader will agree to such a deal.

As far as delaying buying I have never waited for dips. I have purchased when I had the cash. With a DOA below $1,100 I don't see any reason to sell even a gram of my gold.

Siko9
07-27-2011, 05:24 PM
Or at least stop buying until after the debt ceiling "agreement" is reached.
More and more people are talking about defaulting so that is not going to happen, I think a deal will be made by the weekend, likely overnight to screw all of you out of selling until it drops like a stone.
Sold all my GLD calls.

with you on this one homerj

wgadget
07-27-2011, 05:38 PM
They may not "default," but the US credit rating will be downgraded nevertheless.

Straman
07-27-2011, 06:56 PM
Last week, my wife informed me there were going to be massive furloughs within the IRS due to aug 2 but late friday evening, memo came through that furloughs are cancelled.

Form your own opinion. :)

SiberD
07-27-2011, 07:10 PM
Last week, my wife informed me there were going to be massive furloughs within the IRS due to aug 2 but late friday evening, memo came through that furloughs are cancelled.

Form your own opinion. :)


My opinion? No massive layoffs within the IRS? That's a shame, a real disappointment! :p

HighInBC
07-27-2011, 07:27 PM
Last week, my wife informed me there were going to be massive furloughs within the IRS due to aug 2 but late friday evening, memo came through that furloughs are cancelled.

Form your own opinion. :)

I would think that if they are tight for money that the IRS is the very last thing they would close.

Scorp
07-27-2011, 08:36 PM
Read this line in an L.A. Times article :

'We're literally sitting on our hands and just waiting," said Ted Weisberg, who works on the New York Stock Exchange (http://www.latimes.com/topic/economy-business-finance/new-york-stock-exchange-ORCRP001376.topic) floor for Seaport Securities.
"When you don't know what to do the best thing is to do nothing."

Seems like Stock exchanges are fully staffed ready to react to a debt ceiling raise or a default.

"Trading floors Street-wide are unusually well populated for this time of year," said Peter Kenny, a trader at Knight Capital Group.
"You will see very few people on vacation."

Full article here :

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-business-debt-ceiling-20110727,0,7359738,full.story

Chazmo
07-27-2011, 09:22 PM
Or at least stop buying until after the debt ceiling "agreement" is reached.
More and more people are talking about defaulting so that is not going to happen, I think a deal will be made by the weekend, likely overnight to screw all of you out of selling until it drops like a stone.
Sold all my GLD calls.

as always holding steady for the zombie apocalypse 2012

Killver
07-27-2011, 11:15 PM
Or at least stop buying until after the debt ceiling "agreement" is reached.
More and more people are talking about defaulting so that is not going to happen, I think a deal will be made by the weekend, likely overnight to screw all of you out of selling until it drops like a stone.
Sold all my GLD calls.


You believe this will drop physical significantly? Of course this can happen, with TARP the markets were crashing because people FEARED they would crash and withdrew their money from banks etc. So physical PMs can go down, but this doesn't mean they will stay- we've seen this before. I don't want to get dollars for anything now either: gold/silver may be buying opportunities if there's no default for a week or so, but selling physical could run into premiums etc. Stacking is very simple in principle, and it doesn't make as much as trading (since the times when silver really soars are pretty rare). Even so, it's holding up better than paper. The paper is the problem.

HomerJ
07-27-2011, 11:28 PM
Yes, I can see a significant drop in silver.
If gold drops 30$-40$, silver may drop 3$-5$ which percentage wise is quite a deal.
I say play it safe, if it goes up it will keep going up and if it goes down you are not ripping your hair out.

YouPrintIStack
07-27-2011, 11:35 PM
Yes, I can see a significant drop in silver.
If gold drops 30$-40$, silver may drop 3$-5$ which percentage wise is quite a deal.
I say play it safe, if it goes up it will keep going up and if it goes down you are not ripping your hair out.

Nice to see a post in the silver forum that actually has something to do with the market and SLV its self. I conquer.
Im looking to buy in @ 36-38

Placerville
07-28-2011, 12:06 AM
There were dips in PM's recently when there were rumors of a deal.

I would expect dips when it's finally announced. We've had a runup of 10% in gold so far this month and about 20% in silver.

ynot2k
07-28-2011, 12:27 AM
Folks,

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silverboyxxx
07-28-2011, 12:31 AM
they have all pms. think about this yes a dip could happen. but also think the u.s. gold or pm's have always been a insurance its insurance to all that owns it. so my question is this do they really want their insurance to be worth less. seems they would be happy its worth more. just a thought.:confused:

Psycho
07-28-2011, 12:58 AM
I sold today. May buy back in a few weeks after the dust settles. I got tired of the drama associated with all the debt talk. I still have all my physical, just sold the paper.

HardlyPeeved
07-28-2011, 01:17 AM
Right now we are spending 6x what we bring in.

If the ceiling is raised that will go up to 8x what we bring in.

As far as I understand, this October there are other "rubicons" we are passing.

It seems we are theoretically going over a fiscal cliff in the next few months that no country has ever survived (and come back from the dead).

Sorry...gotta let you know that it is "different this time"...

Check this article out...especially the fist two paragraphs....USD is toast.
Morgan Stanley reported in 2009 that there’s “no historical precedent” for an economy that exceeds a 250% debt-to-GDP ratio without experiencing some sort of financial crisis or high inflation. Our total debt now exceeds GDP by roughly 400%.

Investment legend Marc Faber reports that once a country’s payments on debt exceed 30% of tax revenue, the currency is “done for.” On our current path, analyst Michael Murphy projects we’ll hit that figure by October.

Peter Bernholz, the leading expert on hyperinflation, states unequivocally that “hyperinflation is caused by government budget deficits.” This year’s U.S. budget deficit will end up being $1.5 trillion, an amount never before seen in history.

Since the Federal Reserve’s creation in 1913, the dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power. Our government leaders clearly don’t know how – or don’t wish – to keep the currency strong.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/thousand-pictures-worth-one-word-worthless

AstralEclipse
07-28-2011, 03:05 AM
Dollar Cost Averaging is the logical path, buy with disposable income when you can.

Z_Z_Z
07-28-2011, 03:12 AM
For the paper players... who knows?

For the physical holders here is my take:

Either way, they must raise the debt ceiling to meet obligations. Period. If they do not raise the debt ceiling, obligations cannot be met. Further, the US would likely go into default and interest rates will go up. If interest rates go up, currency becomes more expensive. If currency becomes more expensive then you would see a drop in PMs as investors rally to cash.

But here is the kicker: as interest rates go up, so do debt liabilities for the average citizen. Increased payments and increased costs for borrowing. This means less currency and credit they have to spend... which drives consumer based economies. Prices tend to fall in deflationary periods and in the past foreign money would poor into such economies for those cheap goods. However, you have to be producing goods for foreign money to poor in for cheap goods.

Having said that, when the debt ceiling rises, the US must borrow more currency. More currency means inflating the USD even further. PMs up.

No debt ceiling increase (not likely)... then default, more layoffs, deflationary pressure on the USD, thus PMs down... but for how long? How long would this drive PMs down and by how much? As we know from history, PMs can and have done well in both economic climates: inflationary and deflationary. Really the question comes down to what your currency is backed by under any circumstances. The problem with fiat is that it is backed by nothing... printed into thin air.

So I would be asking myself this question: is the currency that is- and is going to be used- any less fiat than it was prior to this "debt ceiling deal?" If the answer is no... then go make yourself a sandwich and sit back and relax because you have your insurance policy (PMs).

II DALTON II
07-28-2011, 09:51 AM
Or at least stop buying until after the debt ceiling "agreement" is reached.
More and more people are talking about defaulting so that is not going to happen, I think a deal will be made by the weekend, likely overnight to screw all of you out of selling until it drops like a stone.
Sold all my GLD calls.

That is my opinion also. The only people buying right now should be the newbies who have not yet got a core stack at all. For any newbies wondering whether or not to buy now just drop 33% - 50% in now and then wait to see what August 2nd does to the markets.

SecretArgentMan
07-28-2011, 10:22 AM
It seems to me that a "deal" (sellout) to raise the debt ceiling would be bullish for PMs, not the other way around. Forcing the gov't to cut back would be good for the dollar.

tsimehcla
07-28-2011, 11:25 AM
We all know a debt ceiling increase will occur. That is already baked into the cake.

A kick the can down the road deal will do little to convince the market that the Federal government is solvent. If so, I expect little in the way of a PM smackdown.

A deal that radically reduces spending in the here and now (as opposed to wind and smoke down the road reductions) could knock PMs down substantially. I doubt if the Dear Leader will agree to such a deal.

As far as delaying buying I have never waited for dips. I have purchased when I had the cash. With a DOA below $1,100 I don't see any reason to sell even a gram of my gold.

Wrong again. The ceiling increase is NOT 'baked in', and when it does get increased, PMs will dip just as Homer's OP suggests.

Bush raised the debt ceiling 7 times, Reagan did it like 10...he also raised taxes. Both still spent like drunken sailors, so I assume your love for them is equally misinformed.

I'd wait for a dip here. One is surely coming soon.

FelixWankel
07-28-2011, 12:56 PM
I'm waiting for the buying op when the deal is made............. I just hope I'm right this time!

captainsilverton
10-06-2013, 09:01 AM
this thread and default....in 2011


do not think most will be taking profits here concerning bullion.... lol!! well now its 2013.... what has changed other then POS down>???

still an effort, still the same old US gov't crap...though the world is a different place then it was in 2011.

INCT

silverbull82
10-06-2013, 03:38 PM
you aren't kidding there captain, the world is a whole new animal now than what it was a few short years ago... the 2008 crash was just a blip in the radar compared to what could happen now... the system has gotten 20x worse and the debt has multiplied and we have went nowhere with this "recovery" i think things are getting heated up and ready to burst at any time now...