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  #81  
Old 04-12-2012, 06:21 PM
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Gwyde Gwyde is offline
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Default Relief rally and bonanza grades

The juniors and explorers have suffered flagellation and crucifixion. It's about time for resurrection. Today's relief rally is a good start. Our contributor driven explorer and junior list is however still down 3.8% on average and 0.9% weighed.

We have been lucky: Melkior resources surged 42% after bonanza grades (gold: 52g/tonne) were found over a 3.7m layer. Melkior is up 100% since the start of this list. I will take it off the list and move it to the 'Successful Exit' compartment. Beaufield Res is also up double digits, but Goldrush Res. had an off-day.
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  #82  
Old 04-22-2012, 02:28 PM
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Unhappy Down the shaft

As is heard often, miners take the stairs up but -as sentiment turns sour- take the elevator down. It seems our explorers haven't the patience anymore to wait for the elevator. They rather jump down the shaft. Today, the brakes are on, as the slide halted.

The “contributor driven explorer and junior spreadsheet” is now down to an average loss of 12.9%. The cap weighed loss is 5.9%. Only 6 of our picks are still up since their inclusion. Our only Aussie pick: Medusa Mining is doing well. Guess malignant shorters are petrified . As announced last week, I took the profit on Melkior Res., there are no further changes to this list.

Silvermex has been removed from BOG's penny stock list after the acquisition deal. On this penny stock list the week was equally catastrophic: the average loss now amounts to 22.4%. Yet you'd be off even worse with the explorer ETF GLDX, which shed 33.8% over that same period. There's no place to hide...
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  #83  
Old 04-26-2012, 12:39 AM
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I'd like to place this small cap penny producer Not on the dreaded Venture Exchange. This small cap has achieved what every penny dreams of; a producing mill, they produced a modest 5500 oz last quarter, in a very politically stable region in Quebec/Manitoba vs Buro Fasa and Peru and such.

Pennys are so beat up right now almost any small penny producer has tons of upside and could help make you come off as a genius. With no Red face with a weak/poorly thought out pick.

Anyways drum roll please:


ALEXIS MINERALS CORP
AMC:TSX
View AXSMF on the OTCQX INTERNATIONAL


Welcome To Alexis Minerals

Alexis Minerals Corporation is a dynamic and aggressive mining company operating in Canada’s richest mining regions in Val-d’Or & Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, and Snow Lake, Manitoba. Gold production is a priority as Alexis continues underground operations at its Lac Herbin Mine and will be ramping up to mid-tier productions levels with its Snow Lake Mine coming online in 2012. Exploration efforts are focused in the mineral rich Abitibi District of Northern Quebec where the company has 100% ownership of over 1,000 sq. km. The company is also exploring its 88 sq. km property in Snow Lake where historic production exceeded 1 million ounces.

Reserves and Resources Summary
RESERVES* Lac Herbin(1) Lac Pelletier(2) Snow Lake(3) Total
Proven 10,300 11,914 900 23,114
Probable 20,000 22,966 451,000 493,866
Proven & Probable 30,200 34,897 451,900 516,980


RESOURCES (oz. Au) Measured Indicated M + I Inferred
Lac Herbin(1) 19,900 28,800 48,700 80,500
Lac Pelletier(2) 16,040 61,331 77,372 112,899
Snow Lake (3) 1,000 727,000 728,000 336,700
Total 36,940 817,131 854,072 530,099

*Reserves are also included in Resource values
(1) 43-101 Technical Report on Mineral Reserve Estimate at the Lac Herbin Mine, April 18, 2011 prepared by Austin Hitchins, B.Sc., P. Geo., Audrey Lapointe, B.Sc., P. Geo. and Patrick Sévigny, Ing.,
(2) Feasibility Study – Lac Pelletier Project, June 28, 2010, prepared by Martin Perron, Eng., Marc Lafontaine, Eng., François Chabot, Eng., Pascal Hamelin, P.Eng. dated
(3) Snow Lake Mine Re-activation Project Technical Report NI 43-101, December 10. 2010 prepared by Mr. Andre Roy Eng.


3.5 pennys with a 1 bagger minimum at some point this year.
This was a hard choice btw St. Andrews {Sas} and Alexis Minerals Corp {Amc}.

But I stand by Amc; especially for swing traders, you can likely buy and sell this numerous times this year with a big core buy @ 3 - 3.5 penny buy in; on this Metal Miner crash of 2012. Buy in 2 tranches at these numbers would be a prudent capital preservation way to go.

Don't let your fiat burn a hole in your pocket, if you only catch the 3.5 penny buy in this week and sentiment in miners changes perhaps you can buy another miner on the way up rather than this catching a falling sword act.

Last edited by Chadilac : 04-26-2012 at 07:13 PM.
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  #84  
Old 04-28-2012, 12:03 PM
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Gwyde Gwyde is offline
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Default Have we seen the bottom?

The "contributor driven explorers (and junior miners) list has been updated. For the link see the signature. Chadilac has contributed a new pick: Alexis Minerals Corp. (AMC.TO), a small miner (5,500 Oz last quarter) in Quebec / Manitoba. On the flip side, AMC has a $22 M debt to pay back the next few years.

One of the 'draft entries' was deleted as to keep the number of explorers/junior miners within limits. Nuinsco Res J has been moved to the 'exile list' as of April 20.

Have we seen the bottom? Well our list is down 10.6% on Friday, against 12.9% on Friday April 20. Looks not too bad, but excluding the effect of the deletion of laggard Nuinsco, the improvement is only 0.6%. Only 5 explorers/juniors are posting a gain since inclusion, 4 are at break-even and 17 post a loss.

About the 'other lists' :
  1. BOG's penny stock list is now down 26.2% (from 22.4%). Malbex screwed it up with poor drilling results. Moneta Porcupine gave back its gains and Unigold turned from gains to losses. Only three pennies stay out of the red. The Global X Gold explorer ETF: GLDX is however down 30.8% since the start of monitoring.
  2. Ron Paul's selection is down 18.37%, up from a 19.17% loss. However the aggregate loss (using the weights as determined by the brackets disclosed) doesn't improve (due to the slide of GoldCorp).

Last edited by Gwyde : 04-28-2012 at 12:07 PM. Reason: typo
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  #85  
Old 04-28-2012, 04:59 PM
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Thank you Gwyde for including my pick, like I say it was a hard pick between St. Andrews and Amc. Both are good small producers/explorers in very mining friendly areas, which will rebound faster than less politically friendly areas which usually trade at a discount to their true value. As investors are scared and weary of these miners including the deep North of Canada.

Now is the time to tweak your miners and rid yourself of dead wood at a lossz no doubt, or perhaps give them one last chance by setting a half/full penny stop loss below where it is now. By liquididating your weak miner, you can dump that cash into a better one and take advantage of their upside and perhaps sleep better at night.

The contributor driven list is holding well at only 10.6% down, that is pretty good in this environment for miners. I hope Amc - Alexis Minerals helps out a penny producer in the most mining friendly juristiction in the world. Kinda like a IamGold play dumping less stable for more stable.
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  #86  
Old 05-11-2012, 06:43 PM
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Exclamation A major shake-up

While painful, it's often necessary to prune laggards in a miner portfolio. In a major shake-up five of the "draft" components were moved to the exile list. The total losses we incurred on those now about equal the gains we realized on our "Successful Exit" list. Too bad, but it makes no sense keeping on board a list of penny stock explorers low on cash and doomed to dilute into oblivion. Sandstorm gold went through a share consolidation and the entry price has been adapted accordingly.

As of today, a selection of five junior miners join the selection. I'm paying tribute to Eric O for his solid research on miners with Canadian, American or Mexican operations only (as to avoid location risk), with a solid balance sheet and decent reserves (size matters) and who didn't sell their soul in royalty deals.

The five miners enter the selection at today's price level. Here's the copy-paste selection of the list as posted by Eric:
  1. Atna Resources: Atna has the Briggs Mine in California producing around 40,000 per year, but the big news is the recent consolidation of the Pinson property in Nevada. This fully permitted 12 g/t underground project should be operational by YE 2012, and shooting for an annual rate of about 75,000 for next year. They are funding it all through cash flows and a small line of credit. No stock dilution.
  2. Argonaut Gold: Open pit operations in Mexico, with stellar operational success so far with their initial mine. Start up of a second operation is underway. Guidance for 2012 is 88,000 to 97,000, while 2013 looks more like 130,000, all at industry average costs.
  3. Aurizon Mines: A favorite buyout candidate as far as I'm concerned. A single top quality underground mine in Quebec, and lots of cash. Still a great buy even if you value all their development projects at zero. Casa Berardi should keep cranking out about 160,000 per year, for years and years to come, at below average costs.
  4. Kirkland Lake Gold: Steady resurrection of a historic Ontario motherlode that logged past production in excess of 20 million ounces. Currently producing around 80,000 per year, though at above average costs. Mill expansions are underway that should vault KGI to 250,000 to 300,000 per year by 2014, with costs improving.
  5. Timmins Gold: They've successfully restarted the former producing San Francisco open pit mine in Mexico, and are posting good growth in resources and production. They're currently going at an annualized rate of around 86,000 per year, with expansion programs underway to hit a steady 130,000 per year by 2013.
... there are more, but I had selected Aurcana on this list before and the other junior miners are covered in the miners spreadsheet with reserve/resource and valuation data (URL in signature).

Despite our pruning the list, the loss (including components removed) is up to 10.8%. On the current selection we are down 11.4%. Yet it seems we've been lucky: Penny explorer stocks were beaten up relentlessly; it's therefore hardly surprising that on BOG's list the loss is aggravating to 30.2%. Majors offered little protection lately. On Ron Paul's selection, the average loss increases to 25.6%. Aggregated (using the weight factors) the loss is at 22.8%.
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  #87  
Old 05-28-2012, 10:42 AM
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Cool Recovering

A weekly overview on how junior miners and explorers evolved: Gains are unevenly spread, but the contributor driven explorer & junior spreadsheet is recovering well. The average loss is down to 12.9% from 16.2%. The focus on junior producers starts paying off as we are up on Argonaut, Aurizon, Atna and Kirkland Gold. Only Timmins is still a drag, but the stock is up today. What's important: the (truncated) market cap weighed result now is down only 6.2% (was down 10.5%), an implicit indication that early stage explorers are still rather depressed. We have 7 list components up, against 18 down with 1 break even.

This is also what the result of BOG's list tells us. The penny stock explorer list is at an aggregate loss of 32.9% (was 35.9%). The slide of Cream Minerals has been a drag on this list. Currently only 3 components are out of the red. For the record: the GLDX Gold explorer ETF still is down 40% over this same time frame.

The best weekly performance is for Ron Paul's list, with an average loss down to 23.84% from 30.05%. The weighed loss (using the brackets disclosed) improves even more: from -23.71% to -16.35%. Of course we'd rather see gains; the only thing that matters with investing. On RP's shortlist there currently are only two components out of the red. Yet with majors catching the first wind of the PM miner recovery, this may improve substantially.
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  #88  
Old 06-05-2012, 03:16 AM
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Default Recovering further

Yesterday I have put on line a new update of the Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miners spreadsheet (URL in signature). We are further progressing on all of the lists. On our main list, losses are cut to single digits: we are still down 9.38% This week shows nice gains for the recently included juniors (Eric's picks), while also Aurcana recovered further and Medusa mining is out of the red again. We have 7 gains against 17 losses with 1 break even. Nautilus left the selection last week. The stock is being followed up on the quote list of the Valuation Spreadsheet of Canadian Miners (on the MDDC thread). I'm considering dropping Goldrush res. (also on BOG's penny stock selection) for the same reason.

This being said, on BOG's list the average loss is still 31.6%, against 38.6% for the Global X Explorer ETF, GLDX. Ron Paul's buy&hold selection is now still down 19.4% or 11.7% weighed by the brackets disclosed. Both are a considerable improvement over last week.
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  #89  
Old 06-18-2012, 04:17 PM
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Default A disappointing week

We may have hoped for the recovery to continue, but in vain.
Last Friday was an double witching option expiry day (quarterly + monthly options for most mining stocks). The usual shenanigans were around again, though these mainly target the majors, juniors faced some 'collateral damage'.
Despite gold firming little over the week (and silver merely), miners didn't rise on the slipstream of mainstream markets.

On our contributor driven explorer and junior miners spreadsheet, we are down 1.16% on Friday, yet weighed that adds up to 3.5% on account of a slide of Aurcana and Romarco towards the close. The average loss is now 12.42% and cap weighed it dips to 3.61% (from break-even last week).

No lucky faces on Bog's penny stock list either, where the average loss adds up to 33.34%. On Ron Paul's Buy&Hold portfolio the damage is up to 20.03% on average or 13.47% weighed (satisfying the brackets disclosed).
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  #90  
Old 07-02-2012, 02:39 PM
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Post Friday rally doesn't make up for losses

Precious metals seemed unchained yesterday, with gold up over 3% and silver leaping almost 4.5%. Whereas large-cap miners cautiously followed, juniors and explorers were partying. The daily gain on our contributor driven junior and explorer spreadsheet (link in signature) is an impressive 3.65%. The Friday rally doesn't make up for losses incurred earlier this week as we are down 16.08% since the start of list (against 14.56% last week). Gains dwindle on Aurcana and Argonaut gold and both CB Gold and Alexis Minerals made another slide. There are 6 components gaining against 18 losses on the list (I don't include the benchmarks).

Less change on the other lists: BOG's penny stock list is down 38.6% (almost unchanged) and Ron Paul's selection is still down 23.7%.
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