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  #21011  
Old 05-17-2012, 10:35 PM
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Numisgold Numisgold is offline
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Originally Posted by Antimagnetic View Post
bounce and all is good. Why is GSr still in 3>10>20>50>200DMA alignment, not rolling over? Did not even go down to 10MA. RSI is still in the uptrend. In december there was immediate reaction and roll over. Would like to see more. Remember that bear market rallies are often vicious.
Yeah. Today was another tough day for copper miners, oil stocks, grain stocks, uraniums, some pgm firms, etc. Would like to see a little more cooperation from these guys along with the silvers and golds. But in looking back to the 2008 crash, gold and silver miners were the first off the bottom in late October. All the other commodity stocks tended to bottom in November or December, a couple of months before the general stock market which bottomed in March 2009. BKX, Naz, Russell bottomed in late Nov. So in that regard, miners lifting off with the other guys still correcting follows the 2008 pattern. Gold, silver, and copper have all reached their measured moves based on the previous drop. It still looks like the base metal miners and the S&P have more of a decline to go. This entire discussion assumes we just saw an October-like 2008 bottom. It may not be the case. Note that on the hourly charts GDX and GLD both gapped up on today's open. A similar thing happened in October 2008 and those gaps were filled in November. It's also interesting to note that GDX left some fat gaps at 23 and 26 in December 2008....and has not come back for them. They might never get filled. But I think the GDX and GLD gaps made today will get filled based on how the S&P, XME, and XLB all currently look. GDX rallied 55% in 9 days off the October 2008 bottom...and gave 75% of it back in a November pull back to rhyme with the equities that made another wave down in November. There were several hourly gaps like this following bounces off strong declines during the July-October 2008 declines in GDX. It came back for every one of those.

GSR fell back to fill an outstanding gap in the 55-56 range. The biggest thing I see here is that triple top in the StochRSI and a break below the 0.8 and 0.5 lines. W%R is also below the top line. In 6 out of the last 7 short term peaks, the triple peak w/breakdown <0.8 was the typical scenario. More than likely it will mean the same thing this time. CCI is still at 125 and getting this <100 is also needed.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD...d=p14608543151

Last edited by Numisgold : 05-17-2012 at 11:42 PM.
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  #21012  
Old 05-17-2012, 10:57 PM
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BlueRidgePatrol BlueRidgePatrol is offline
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Originally Posted by Quad G View Post
Once wheat moves above 680, I think it's gone....1200+ in fairly short order.

But it would have to climb against seasonality, which would normally be selling off through the summer. We'll see.

Corn would likely be right behind.

What do you think BRP?


...

The hot south winds could be providing contra-seasonal fundamentals for wheat. The crop had looked very good a month ago but is now deteriorating rapidly.
The first harvest reports will come in from Southern TX soon, and as they move up toward Kansas the quality bushels could be MIA. If that happens, seasonality won't matter at all. However, it would take a very bad crop to cause serious supply concerns so my guess is that emotions will rule the day. I think technicals will give you more insight into emotions than fundamentals.
Fundamentally, corn may be setting up a situation similiar to 1996 when old crop shortages sent nearby prices to all time highs. Price-rationing has not occurred and no one really knows just how many old crop bushels are out there. The end users are bidding very high basis levels (physical price is higher than paper price) so we know they're having a tough time finding the actual physical corn at this time.
Old crop corn can't let wheat get too far above it as wheat is substituting for corn in some feed rations already.
New crop corn looks in great shape across the nation so unless we get some real drought concerns there will be no fundamental reason for high corn prices after fall 2012.

--BRP
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  #21013  
Old 05-17-2012, 11:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quad G View Post
If that line is broken, then USD would likely cause the RSI to visit 70, with the index venturing up to retest 88+

...
That kind of a move will overrule any fundamentals in the grains. A high dollar will reduce exports and we're not eating all these beans ourselves.
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  #21014  
Old 05-18-2012, 03:42 AM
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Thien Pham Thien Pham is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Numisgold View Post
Yeah. Today was another tough day for copper miners, oil stocks, grain stocks, uraniums, some pgm firms, etc. Would like to see a little more cooperation from these guys along with the silvers and golds. But in looking back to the 2008 crash, gold and silver miners were the first off the bottom in late October. All the other commodity stocks tended to bottom in November or December, a couple of months before the general stock market which bottomed in March 2009. BKX, Naz, Russell bottomed in late Nov. So in that regard, miners lifting off with the other guys still correcting follows the 2008 pattern. Gold, silver, and copper have all reached their measured moves based on the previous drop. It still looks like the base metal miners and the S&P have more of a decline to go. This entire discussion assumes we just saw an October-like 2008 bottom. It may not be the case. Note that on the hourly charts GDX and GLD both gapped up on today's open. A similar thing happened in October 2008 and those gaps were filled in November. It's also interesting to note that GDX left some fat gaps at 23 and 26 in December 2008....and has not come back for them. They might never get filled. But I think the GDX and GLD gaps made today will get filled based on how the S&P, XME, and XLB all currently look. GDX rallied 55% in 9 days off the October 2008 bottom...and gave 75% of it back in a November pull back to rhyme with the equities that made another wave down in November. There were several hourly gaps like this following bounces off strong declines during the July-October 2008 declines in GDX. It came back for every one of those.

GSR fell back to fill an outstanding gap in the 55-56 range. The biggest thing I see here is that triple top in the StochRSI and a break below the 0.8 and 0.5 lines. W%R is also below the top line. In 6 out of the last 7 short term peaks, the triple peak w/breakdown <0.8 was the typical scenario. More than likely it will mean the same thing this time. CCI is still at 125 and getting this <100 is also needed.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD...d=p14608543151
Since MA 25 of Daily, Weekdly charts are high above.
Previously i guessed gold would stop at 153X and bounce back but gold stopped at 152X and bounce back!
We should look at gold by next week, if it drop below 1522 then gold will drop rapidly again otherwise, gold will go up to 16XX.
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  #21015  
Old 05-18-2012, 05:56 AM
chartsrgood chartsrgood is offline
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Originally Posted by chartsrgood View Post
have to take the dog out now
when he's gotta go he's gotta go
not much different than the markets when I think about it
the dog feels better
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  #21016  
Old 05-18-2012, 06:07 AM
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goldfinger007 goldfinger007 is offline
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gold should stay above $1,600.00 today. possibly close over $1,625.00 an ounce.
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  #21017  
Old 05-18-2012, 06:41 AM
ffr_manoj243 ffr_manoj243 is offline
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http://upic.me/i/tk/mvsu0.gif

http://upic.me/i/iw/exzc0.gif

http://upic.me/i/fy/2x9u0.gif

Last edited by ffr_manoj243 : 05-18-2012 at 06:51 AM.
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  #21018  
Old 05-18-2012, 08:28 AM
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Quad G Quad G is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antimagnetic View Post
bounce and all is good. Why is GSr still in 3>10>20>50>200DMA alignment, not rolling over? Did not even go down to 10MA. RSI is still in the uptrend. In december there was immediate reaction and roll over. Would like to see more. Remember that bear market rallies are often vicious.
true, for now a nice bounce from a well anticipated support area. One day does not a trend make. But I do like the timing here next to a fairly major weekly time fibo, new moon, solar eclipse and finishing a MT EW pattern. Certainly worth a shot.

PoG is now above the 10ema with some impulsive behavior.

PoS just made an impulse up, 5 waves to just under the 10ema. At this point I think the 3/10/20 will make a bullish crossover next week, and I will finish my physical buying for this time period with 3 more tranches. The panic sell bottom on the 16th that I mentioned was the clue, Now we see the confirming volume the next day on impulsive price action. I'll chart this soon, I haven't taught much on volume.

Again I stick with my call that May will likely be another significant bottom similar to December 2011. I think we could be retesting 1900 (pog) between now and September. Gold critical support for this move at 1526.




...
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  #21019  
Old 05-18-2012, 08:46 AM
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Quad G Quad G is offline
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Here you go:



SilverST5-18-12volume.jpg


...
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"We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion. Avarice, ambition, revenge or gallantry would break the strongest cords of our Constitution as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution is designed only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for any other."
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Last edited by Quad G : 05-18-2012 at 09:37 AM.
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  #21020  
Old 05-18-2012, 09:00 AM
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severeuke severeuke is offline
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Hi Quad,

Your HUI chart. It looks like the blue line is the one to watch assuming it bounces from here. It shows a rise into the 400s then it goes right back down to a new low. Do you still think this happens?

Thanks

Last edited by severeuke : 05-18-2012 at 09:04 AM.
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