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  #11  
Old 07-17-2012, 12:21 AM
rand1 rand1 is offline
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i would buy the land
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  #12  
Old 07-17-2012, 01:47 AM
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Silvercoin Silvercoin is offline
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I'd buy the land too.

Just make sure there are no gotchas that might have you spending an arm and a leg after the purchase.
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  #13  
Old 07-17-2012, 02:00 AM
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Stormdancer Stormdancer is offline
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A lot of my reservations have already been mentioned. Rising taxes is a big one with so many municipalities grasping and gasping for income...land/real estate owners are some of the easiest to shake down.

Demographics is a factor I didn't see mentioned yet. We're aging as a nation, boomers are often looking to downsize, 30 year olds still living with parents on a scale not seen in modern times. Young couples moving back in with one set of parents or another to save both money.

Lots of trends to keep an eye on that point to reduced housing demand for a good while to come. All while the banks are sitting on massive inventories of homes not even on the market yet.

Personally, I'd watch some of those trends a while longer. First thing would be seeing that massive shadow inventory get washed out. Looks like we've still got a long way to go for now.

Of course, if you're paying cash, the lot next door might be a place to pitch a tent if you faced the worst, lost your job and ended up in foreclosure yourself.

I'm kidding of course...but I guess that thought probably isn't really very funny
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  #14  
Old 07-17-2012, 02:08 AM
qwerty qwerty is offline
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here is story i found

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/...MO_CODE=F79B-1

The United States is headed toward another real estate collapse — and it will be worse than the one we just experienced, according to famed economist and New York Times best-selling author Robert Wiedemer.

But Wiedemer believes that all of this positive news for the housing sector ignores the one factor that will cause housing prices to plummet: Interest rates will eventually rise.

...

Wiedemer added, “Housing expert Robert Shiller believes homes prices could fall 25 percent in the next five years. I think it could be even worse.

--------------------------

i think one major factor is that getting loans from banks even if you can afford the house. they will be major impediment to any housing recovery also even if prosperity swept over america

as stormdancer said ... all that glut of shadow housing inventory too

Last edited by qwerty : 07-17-2012 at 02:27 AM.
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  #15  
Old 07-17-2012, 07:58 AM
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PaulRevere PaulRevere is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blue edwards View Post
question for y'all: i have a house that i purchased in 2006. it has lost around 30% of its value since then. i started buying gold and silver in 2008 and have a stack worth about as much as my house is now.

there is a lot next to mine that is for sale...it is bank-owned (developer went busto in 2009). the asking price for the lot is 10% of what i paid for mine in 2006.

here is the question...i have the cash to buy this lot, do i buy it or just buy more gold/silver? the case for buying the lot is to dollar cost average into the residential real estate in my neighborhood (nice area). the case against doing this is obvious to everyone on this board. but, the land cant go to $0...at least in theory.

i dunno...part of me says that buying the lot is a no brainer. in five years it could be a 4 or 5 bagger. the other part of me says, based on what i believe is probably coming, i should use every spare dollar to buy pm's, food stock, weapons and ammo.

your thoughts?


Never hurts to have more land.
***buffer between neighbors
***start a garden
*** build a house for your kid or rental (modulars are surprisingly inexpensive)

If you do plan to sell it you can always have the deed re-written to avoid future inconveniences such as:
***No more than two stories
***No compost piles/pools/sheds within xxft. of property line

Most importantly. The big picture view
***Increase your families net worth, maybe a verbal understanding that the property always stays in your families name (sons, grandsons, great grand sons). Maybe they get the opportunity to buy another bordering property and expand in the decades to come.

Only down side is can you afford the taxes & are you willing to do the up keep on two properties? (hint* buy a used commercial zero turn mower. LoL )

Last edited by PaulRevere : 07-17-2012 at 08:02 AM.
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  #16  
Old 07-17-2012, 08:06 AM
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lubbad lubbad is offline
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Default Spec home in this market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rawteam1 View Post
all depends on what lot is zoned for? residential? will it just be land next to you that makes your home 2 lots?

really a lot is worthless...

that is unless u r going to spec a home which is risky...
or even riskier think u r going to sell it to someone who is going to spec ahome or worse build a home and try to get a loan to do it...
I agree. Why would someone build a home when they could get a nearly brand new one at fire sale prices. The home I live in was 200 thousand in 2006, and 54 thousand when I bought it in 2009.

I could not have built this house for 100 thousand.
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  #17  
Old 07-17-2012, 08:08 AM
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Spartikis Spartikis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blue edwards View Post
the other thing that scares me about the land is the real estate taxes. they are almost nothing on the lot now but, these clowns can do anything they want. hell, on my house my taxes have gone up 12.5% since 2006 and the value has dropped by 30%. someone explain that to me.

anyway, its a tough decision. the gold i can take with me anywhere i go if the shit hits the fan...the lot aint moving anywhere.
the taxes were my concern, i recently bought a home and my taxes have increased as well, very annoying to have to pay that constantly. if the lot is right next to yours my guess if you will buy it with intent to resell but enjoy the extra land and probably keep it so keep that in mind

Like someone said above, if you have the time and energy start a garden, you can easily earn a dollar or two per square foot gardening from all that free fresh produce. (my 1000 sqft garden however drained my rain barrels, frog pond in my rock garden and still shriveled and died after being watered daily....thanks Mr. Drought!)

Last edited by Spartikis : 07-17-2012 at 08:11 AM.
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  #18  
Old 07-17-2012, 01:12 PM
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blue edwards blue edwards is offline
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guys, thanks for all the input.

here is some additional info:

the lot is a little bit unique...at the end of a culdesaq and its shaped like a funnel...very narrow at the street and widens big time at the back. the back of the lot (where the house would have to go when it eventually is built) has a tree-line that wraps around it...very picturesque. there is a pond in front of the lot which could be a positive or a negative depending on one's preference. its 1.1 acres and its zoned residential. the lots on the street are all well & septic.

The intent would be to hold the lot and eventually sell it to someone who would either build his own house or build a spec. yes, no one is doing spec houses now but, in my area...there are homes being built for owners. there was one just completed last month on my street and a see a few others here and there as i drive to/from work.

so, obviously the decision assumes that the housing market is at the bottom (or near bottom) and will come back at some point. if it never does, the investment makes no sense. i understand the comments about building a garden, etc but, if the shtf and i lose my job and home and food stocks are low, i will be throwing my gold, silver, food, guns and ammo in the truck and driving to montana...i'm not sticking around my neighborhood and building a garden so some degenerate from the city can come and take my shit.

i look at the decision like this...its a way to hedge my bets if i am wrong about the collapse or the timing of the collapse. in that case, housing does eventually come back and i make 4 or 5 times on my investment...maybe even more. of course, what are taxes like then, what are building restrictions like then, etc.?

so, the question really is do i take the cash i have and double down on pm's (more of the same) or do i double down on real estate in case i'm wrong?
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  #19  
Old 07-17-2012, 01:23 PM
rawteam1 rawteam1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blue edwards View Post
guys, thanks for all the input.

here is some additional info:

the lot is a little bit unique...

stop at unique, thats car salesman/real estate saleman bshite..., its so unique no one ever built on it...

The intent would be to hold the lot and eventually sell it to someone who would either build his own house or build a spec.


a quote of doom...


so, obviously the decision assumes that the housing market is at the bottom (or near bottom) and will come back at some point.

quite an assumption, especially having to assume a rise in salaries/wages

i look at the decision like this...its a way to hedge my bets

its hard to hedge with a worthless asset, actually even if u pay cash for it its a liability with upkeep, taxes and possible upgrades...

so, the question really is do i take the cash i have and double down on pm's

yes, or find another asset class or opportunity...

my points in blue...
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  #20  
Old 07-17-2012, 01:27 PM
redmonster redmonster is online now
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Interesting question.

Michael Burry, the medical doctor turned hedge fund outsider that first saw the housing bubble and made a ton of money from it, basically folded his tent and said the only investments he thought worth a damn was gold and farmland.
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