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  #9341  
Old 12-09-2010, 10:41 AM
AGoldhamster AGoldhamster is offline
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Originally Posted by MetalsKing View Post
It's all about risk/reward to me, for me metals area just has too much risk, when I look at nat gas stocks lime PMT and BXE and some others I see the opposite. I tend to the conservative side.

MK
Yes and yearend stuff is often just whipsawing - and not worth to do much.
I have also reduced exposure (flat atm = 100% hedged ) - and will not do much until the earlier mentioned range is broken.

Good to hear you had a good year. Mine was mixed, though in the end nicely in the green too. There's just one problem now - need some "tax loss selling" - hence 100% hedged - and still hoping for a big move into yearend, so I can take some losses and carry the gains into next year
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  #9342  
Old 12-09-2010, 11:05 AM
MetalsKing MetalsKing is online now
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Rates are going a lot higher IMO and rapidly, 10 yr looks headed to 4.10-4.25 and sooner rather than later IMO. this will not bode well for gold and silver IMO.

MK
  #9343  
Old 12-09-2010, 12:05 PM
Shredmonster Shredmonster is offline
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Originally Posted by MetalsKing View Post
Rates are going a lot higher IMO and rapidly, 10 yr looks headed to 4.10-4.25 and sooner rather than later IMO. this will not bode well for gold and silver IMO.

MK
Maybe in the short term but anybody holding physical is looking long term.
  #9344  
Old 12-09-2010, 12:10 PM
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greenbeard greenbeard is offline
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Not true. That is incorrect "common Knowledge". Rates rose throught the mid and late 70's and as they did gold went up even faster. Gold peaked at when interest rates were at 14% FYI.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MetalsKing View Post
Rates are going a lot higher IMO and rapidly, 10 yr looks headed to 4.10-4.25 and sooner rather than later IMO. this will not bode well for gold and silver IMO.

MK

Last edited by greenbeard : 12-09-2010 at 12:49 PM.
  #9345  
Old 12-09-2010, 12:50 PM
cswc1021 cswc1021 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AGoldhamster View Post
Yes and yearend stuff is often just whipsawing - and not worth to do much.
I have also reduced exposure (flat atm = 100% hedged ) - and will not do much until the earlier mentioned range is broken.

Good to hear you had a good year. Mine was mixed, though in the end nicely in the green too. There's just one problem now - need some "tax loss selling" - hence 100% hedged - and still hoping for a big move into yearend, so I can take some losses and carry the gains into next year
Welcome back GD
Well they say never sell a quite market gold looks like a quiet market
  #9346  
Old 12-09-2010, 01:06 PM
MetalsKing MetalsKing is online now
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Maybe in the short term but anybody holding physical is looking long term.
could agree with that, but it could be nasty for several months in gold and silver if 10 yr rates go above 4%.

MK
  #9347  
Old 12-09-2010, 01:21 PM
stag15 stag15 is offline
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Originally Posted by MetalsKing View Post
could agree with that, but it could be nasty for several months in gold and silver if 10 yr rates go above 4%.

MK
Not sure if I understand your rationale? If rates go above 4% quickly, it is a sign that inflation is about to hit. If people are selling their Treasuries because of inflation concerns, won't they have to put that cash somewhere else? They probably won't put them in dollars earning .25%, so commodities are the next choice.

In 2008, everyone rushed to treasuries and gold dropped 25%. Now in 2010/2011, you are saying that people fleeing treasuries will make gold fall?
  #9348  
Old 12-09-2010, 01:23 PM
AGoldhamster AGoldhamster is offline
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Welcome back GD
Well they say never sell a quite market gold looks like a quiet market
Hi CS ... glad to "see" old friends again

Mind to vote when we will hit 1500 on gold?
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  #9349  
Old 12-09-2010, 01:27 PM
AGoldhamster AGoldhamster is offline
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Originally Posted by MetalsKing View Post
Rates are going a lot higher IMO and rapidly, 10 yr looks headed to 4.10-4.25 and sooner rather than later IMO. this will not bode well for gold and silver IMO.
MK
At some point that will kill indices too - and bond volatility will get out of control - and then there will be no place to hide anymore.

Except in cash - which will become more worthless by the day.

The higher rates go here - the more the whole stystem is in danger of breaking down. Europe first, America thereafter. Gold is not a matter of charts anymore (except for the shortterm) - it is a matter of confidence and Blythe
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  #9350  
Old 12-09-2010, 01:30 PM
AGoldhamster AGoldhamster is offline
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Originally Posted by stag15 View Post
Not sure if I understand your rationale? If rates go above 4% quickly, it is a sign that inflation is about to hit. If people are selling their Treasuries because of inflation concerns, won't they have to put that cash somewhere else? They probably won't put them in dollars earning .25%, so commodities are the next choice.

In 2008, everyone rushed to treasuries and gold dropped 25%. Now in 2010/2011, you are saying that people fleeing treasuries will make gold fall?
Spot on - just this: treasuries are not only sold because of inflation, but also because of distrust in fiat and governments. That is especially true in Europe.
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