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  #19231  
Old 03-16-2012, 07:04 PM
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hanymike hanymike is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CStoffen View Post
I am certainly totally non-technical person to post in this thread and I have read couple of pages.. I really find it difficult to understand what conversation is going on here.

Anyone please come up with some simplified version?

Just ask specific questions and somebody will answer.
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  #19232  
Old 03-16-2012, 07:29 PM
chartsrgood chartsrgood is offline
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Originally Posted by hpw12 View Post
good luck getting an answer, I found you just get ignored
There is no simplified version. Do not understand the terms used?. LOOK THEM UP! one by one on a search engine. one will learn something! I get ignored on here to a fair degree as well fwiw. C'est la vie. I am not going to go cry to mommy about it

Too expect people to take the time to answer Simple questions which one could easily look up themselves is an unreasonable request. One should have the Common Courtesy to understand that

If one does not like or is in reality not interested in technical analysis the answer is simple...do not read the thread and or at the very least leave those alone who are interested in TA...

HERE IS THE ANSWER

http://www.google.com/

if one is too lazy to do this that means they are not really interested in learning anyway. and anyone who takes the time to answer questions from people like that are only wasting their time, as I probably just did!

Last edited by chartsrgood : 03-16-2012 at 07:32 PM.
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  #19233  
Old 03-16-2012, 08:48 PM
RobbMatthew RobbMatthew is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CStoffen View Post
I am certainly totally non-technical person to post in this thread and I have read couple of pages.. I really find it difficult to understand what conversation is going on here.

Anyone please come up with some simplified version?
Go check out majormarketmovements.blogspot.com and start your research there. Quad does an excellent job of explaining things.
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  #19234  
Old 03-16-2012, 11:10 PM
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Antimagnetic Antimagnetic is offline
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recent from MA:

Quote:
We are on the verge of another great move. Cash is at record highs everywhere. A crash is only possible
when the majority is long and invested. This condition does not exist. Additionally, there is a vast
reservoir of cash sitting in government debt that will begin to shift away from PUBLIC assets and back
into the PRIVATE asset world. There is a time and place for everything. Right now, the USA is spending
about $4 billion per week in interest. That will rise to $10 billion by the top of the Economic Confidence
Model and then rise to $15 billion by the next low 4.3 years later ASSUMING no change in interest rates,
which is not plausible. The precious metals still have not broken out and have not showing any sign of
doing so just yet. We may see that decline at first with the exponential rally pushed off into 2017.
For
now, governments will get very aggressive in taxation and even Switzerland has proposed new laws as
of March 1
st
that will impose EU regulations upon Swiss operations.
interesting and supports break out in commodities idea.
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  #19235  
Old 03-16-2012, 11:41 PM
argentine argentine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CStoffen View Post
I am certainly totally non-technical person to post in this thread and I have read couple of pages.. I really find it difficult to understand what conversation is going on here.

Anyone please come up with some simplified version?
Hi CStoffen,

This thread is filled with a lot of talented and very intelligent people.

Many times I feel as you do.....what is really being said? And I have a lot of market experience. Basically we are looking for confirmation of a bottom being put in. Right now, I believe most would say we are getting close. Some clues to a bottom being put in that we are looking at are the following:

1. Lease rates for silver - see Anti Magnetics thoughts on this. Its been a couple weeks since the signal for a correction and now may be the time Ag has hit bottom.

2. The short term moving averages - See Quads thoughts on this. Right now they are negative to neutral, a push (or cross as it is sometimes said) over the medium averages will signal a bottom being put in.

3. Options expirations - See Numisgold thoughts on this. Many times when options expire, just prior to that occurrence the metals get a negative price action because many have a profit in that option at a current price level. But if the price goes down they lose that profit and the option originator does not have to pay. There is a time sensitivity price action and knowing when these options expire can help us to determine when a final push in the metals might occur so as to see a bottom forming.

4. The U.S. dollar, the Dow and Oil. See Chartsrgood, ILUVPMs, AM, Quad, Numis and others for this. The dollar is key right now because we just had one of the biggest one day moves in the 10 and 30 year bond market. The Dow is going higher on low volume being pushed up by a few high weighted equities like Apple. Oil is in a bullish pattern that may be breaking down signaling a turn in the markets and might take Gold and Silver with it signaling a lower low to be had in the metals.

5. The gold to silver ratio. The same great posters can give us a lot to think about with this one. Basically the ratio will indicate a certain siding of the markets letting us know if a possible bottom is in or not. It can be tricky with the ratio where it is at now. For example when the ratio was at one time 70 - 90 it was fairly easy to tell that the metals were a buy, especially silver. When they were 35 and under the last run up it was fairly easy to tell that the metals were topping. At 50 or so it is not so easy. Quad has a few benchmark numbers that seem to make sense for the current market circumstances. If we see 55 or so, that might indicate a further decline, but no further than low 50's and we probably are in a bottom pattern for the metals. A lot needs to be factored in when the ratio is in the high 40's and low 50's. Which is why we look to the other clues.

So as you can tell there are more than a few crosscurrents to contend with. And it is not easy to know which ones will help make the right decisions. Which is why you will see Quad and others advocate buying the metals or other markets (in his case, silver right now) in stages. One can not pick the bottoms exactly all the time, or even some of the time. Using the knowledge presented on this thread should give you a better chance to make a good buy or sell. It will never give you an exact science of a full proof trade. Day to day, the markets can't be predicted as it is made up of Human Beings. Humans being what they are, cannot be predicted to the minute but we do live in cycles and so do markets. We are trying to ascertain where we are in the cycles within cycles!

Basically this thread can be used a few ways. Some here are traders, others are interested in the fundamentals of the markets, and still others are looking for good entry points to buy certain markets. Given all the knowledge presented so far, I think I can say we are approaching a bottom in the metals. If I had looked a little more closely at the past posts, I would have been able to sell silver at 35 - 37 based on some topping patterns, market dynamics, options expirations and lease rates. Seeing all the information presented here in the last few pages I think I can comfortably say that we can expect silver and gold could go down to strong resistance levels just over $30 for silver and $1625 for gold. A breach of those levels and we may have to wait longer for a bull pattern to form. But silver and gold could have made a bottom here already. Later in the year, should those strong resistance levels hold, silver and gold should probably be higher. Silver to the 40's and gold approaching old highs. Should silver go beyond $50 concretely such as into the 60's or 70's it might be the last time we see silver under $50 for a very long time. Just as when Gold went over $800 - $1000, we probably will not see $800 gold again. Should gold breach the old high made in September Au could go to $2,200 to 2,350. A war with Iran could make the USD go higher, the Dow lower, Oil very much higher and corresponding higher metal prices. This event would skew the normal relationship of the dollar and the metals. A blow up in the Euro zone that could perhaps take place in June could cause a deflationary event causing a crisis for liquidity such as happened in 08. Both of these events happening in an election year will probably not be good for the incumbent, although a war tends to make the commander in chief more important and takes away the focus on the economy. Hence, the importance of these events discussed in this thread.

I hope that helps and does not make it even more confusing for you and others!

Argentine

Last edited by argentine : 03-17-2012 at 12:39 AM.
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  #19236  
Old 03-17-2012, 12:13 AM
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Arcturus Arcturus is offline
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Thumbs up

Argentine
That took a lot of work and patience. You're a good person.
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  #19237  
Old 03-17-2012, 01:19 AM
ILUVPMs ILUVPMs is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antimagnetic View Post
recent from MA:



interesting and supports break out in commodities idea.
not really... its still ambiguous and still is open to the idea of the metals correcting hard before the exponential wave to 2017.
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  #19238  
Old 03-17-2012, 01:37 AM
lcasal lcasal is offline
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Smile Understanding

Thanks Argentine, you have explained everything perfectly. The information was clear and I understood things that I have not before. Thank you so much for taking the time. You are the best.
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  #19239  
Old 03-17-2012, 11:03 AM
Mercator Mercator is offline
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I would like to thank you too Argentine.

I have read this thread for about a year now and profited from it. It has taken me a few months of research to get to a position where I understand what is being said. It seems to me to be a great place to listen and learn.

When someone like you or Quad takes the time to explain something for the less experienced, it is a considerable gift. That was a great summary of the last few weeks.

I would not suggest that the thread be dumbed down or that people should feel the need to spend their time on educating others. Learning is our own responsibility. Educating others is not an obligation but when it happens it is a great git. Thanks.
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  #19240  
Old 03-17-2012, 12:05 PM
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Diane_Les_Smith Diane_Les_Smith is offline
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Default Very well said Argentine

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mercator View Post
I would like to thank you too Argentine.

I have read this thread for about a year now and profited from it. It has taken me a few months of research to get to a position where I understand what is being said. It seems to me to be a great place to listen and learn.

When someone like you or Quad takes the time to explain something for the less experienced, it is a considerable gift. That was a great summary of the last few weeks.

I would not suggest that the thread be dumbed down or that people should feel the need to spend their time on educating others. Learning is our own responsibility. Educating others is not an obligation but when it happens it is a great git. Thanks.
I too enjoy learning and hence dedicate a special page in Excel to list special quick references mention in these threads of Abbreviations and Quotes worth reading and rereading to refresh my memory, Argentine's post is certainly being copied and pasted to my Excel Market info page this morning. Posters are amazing people, great writers with lots to share. Stick around and you too will be amazed how much knowledge you can build up without a university degree. Thank you all for your input. Anyone else miss Cyclist's commments?
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