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  #19241  
Old 03-17-2012, 01:20 PM
chartsrgood chartsrgood is offline
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Here ia another bullish count in stocks EXCLUDING shorter term movements.

If anyone has the inclination....
one can objectively check the time period after the 1932 low, the 62 low, the 74 low the 87 low, and other Key lows to see if an ABC pattern was present similiar to the way I have labelled this chart. I suspect there is although I have not checked.

fwiw
the bullish counts may or may not be correct but the point is...they are Clearly there and in Elliott terms they are reasonable counts and should not be totally ignored.

hindsight is always 20/20.
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Last edited by chartsrgood : 03-17-2012 at 01:28 PM.
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  #19242  
Old 03-17-2012, 01:26 PM
anvilcreek anvilcreek is offline
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Smile argentine

Thanks, Argentine, you helped educate a real dummy
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  #19243  
Old 03-17-2012, 02:35 PM
RobbMatthew RobbMatthew is offline
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Platinum is finally selling at a premium to Gold again, this is VERY significant. This is a a sign that Gold will be taking a prolonged breather from its parabolic run last year, and that the metals market will most likely get more quiet as the year goes on. Think what you may, but I think metals will slumber or drop this year.
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  #19244  
Old 03-17-2012, 02:49 PM
chartsrgood chartsrgood is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobbMatthew View Post
Platinum is finally selling at a premium to Gold again, this is VERY significant. This is a a sign that Gold will be taking a prolonged breather from its parabolic run last year, and that the metals market will most likely get more quiet as the year goes on. Think what you may, but I think metals will slumber or drop this year.
Another more bearish view. What is this place coming to, lol.

Could it be the gold bulls are drinking the wrong version of the Kool aid.

the stock market will drop big and the gold market will go up big and the gold bulls will live happily ever after.

just to be clear...for those who don't know...I have a less bullish view on gold as well.

Last edited by chartsrgood : 03-17-2012 at 02:57 PM.
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  #19245  
Old 03-17-2012, 03:08 PM
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Quad G Quad G is offline
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Thanks Argentine, that was a particularly good over-view of this thread and it's players.

For the record I do not intend to ignore any questions, however because of occasional time constraints I have to prioritize my postings. Please do not take it personally if I do not answer your question. Feel free to bump your question forward.
And of course use google to look up terminology. In this day and age it's fairly easy to become an 'expert' on just about any subject with about 20 minutes of reading. Want to know what a 'hammer candle' is? apply a google search and a few minutes of reading.

I find it an inefficient redundancy to explain what a 'hammer candle' is when there are already dozens of explanations already available on the internet.


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  #19246  
Old 03-17-2012, 03:09 PM
RobbMatthew RobbMatthew is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chartsrgood View Post
Another more bearish view. What is this place coming to, lol.

Could it be the gold bulls are drinking the wrong version of the Kool aid.

the stock market will drop big and the gold market will go up big and the gold bulls will live happily ever after.

just to be clear...for those who don't know...I have a less bullish view on gold as well.
There's nothing wrong with being realistic, I have a LT bull view on gold, but the fact is that gold needs to recover from last year, and that takes time. Its not a bad thing for this bull to take a breather and correct, in fact its much more bullish to get it out of the way for the next run.
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  #19247  
Old 03-17-2012, 03:15 PM
ILUVPMs ILUVPMs is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chartsrgood View Post
Another more bearish view. What is this place coming to, lol.

Could it be the gold bulls are drinking the wrong version of the Kool aid.

the stock market will drop big and the gold market will go up big and the gold bulls will live happily ever after.

just to be clear...for those who don't know...I have a less bullish view on gold as well.
Unlikely case that the market drops big and gold goes up big... All those believe some sort of market disconnect with the miners and gold and the general market are wrong... Not this time around... I think with the bond market taking the hit because of bernankes statement that everything is moving okay... people what to invest their money in the market.. As a result the fed will have to implement a program to buy back those bonds... if they don't rates are going to go up... When the implement this program the market and gold et al will go up... gold and silver and miners will do well during this time frame... I Think in the mean time, that the miners will languish the general stock market until this fed statement is made..
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  #19248  
Old 03-17-2012, 03:19 PM
ILUVPMs ILUVPMs is offline
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Quad,

What are your thoughts on the current action of the bond market... You think that the fed will have to step in and buy bonds to keep rates low...

Also you mentioned that the USD/Jap has bottomed and is the trade of the century... Im really ignorant on this pair and was wondering what are the implications of it having bottom... and why is it the best trade of the century? Is this the infamous yen carry trade that is unwinding?
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  #19249  
Old 03-17-2012, 03:24 PM
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Quad G Quad G is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chartsrgood View Post
Here ia another bullish count in stocks EXCLUDING shorter term movements.

If anyone has the inclination....
one can objectively check the time period after the 1932 low, the 62 low, the 74 low the 87 low, and other Key lows to see if an ABC pattern was present similiar to the way I have labelled this chart. I suspect there is although I have not checked.

fwiw
the bullish counts may or may not be correct but the point is...they are Clearly there and in Elliott terms they are reasonable counts and should not be totally ignored.

hindsight is always 20/20.
I have 3 different stock market counts in my head, all of which obey EW rules. Your depiction of the wave 2 running flat is but one of those counts. I think the Dow range between 13400 and 13700 ish will help separate the wheat from the chaff. Stay above that range and a 3rd wave up becomes most probable.


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"We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion. Avarice, ambition, revenge or gallantry would break the strongest cords of our Constitution as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution is designed only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for any other."
-John Adams, 2nd president of the United States
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  #19250  
Old 03-17-2012, 03:26 PM
chartsrgood chartsrgood is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobbMatthew View Post
There's nothing wrong with being realistic, I have a LT bull view on gold, but the fact is that gold needs to recover from last year, and that takes time. Its not a bad thing for this bull to take a breather and correct, in fact its much more bullish to get it out of the way for the next run.
I do not necessarily disagree with that.

Assuming gold does drop more over say the next several months...

when it does make a low and start a good run

my question is what will the sentiment be?
if the sentiment is, yup gold is off to the races as expected...

imo gold will be in a bear market longer than people expect.

the attitude that it is a given that gold is going up big is very troubling to this individual.

it has been a given that the stock market was going to drop big again each of the last 3 years.. it did not happen.

The Key of where I'm coming from is this...
When in the history of the markets has it been a given that something was going to happen and it did?
1929?
1932?
1982?
1987?
2009?
the gold bear from 1980-1999?
silver from 50 to 4 during the same period?
the parabolic spike up(nasdaq) of the dot coms into the year 2000?
the parabolic spike up in gold and silver in 1980?
AAPL(apple computer) from 9 to 600?

Last edited by chartsrgood : 03-17-2012 at 04:33 PM.
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