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  #11  
Old 04-10-2010, 02:52 PM
RugerFan RugerFan is offline
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from here on out you may only see small dips, maybe never again, can silver go from 18 to 8.
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  #12  
Old 04-10-2010, 03:03 PM
lowcommotion lowcommotion is offline
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Default 100ob

Quote:
Originally Posted by ARCHANGEL View Post
According to 100B , if I read him correctly, we go to 18.90 then go down one more time to 14/15. He then says because of the current CFTC news the down side could be limited to only 16.50. The we go up take out 19.50 and we can finally begin the secular phase once we clear 25.
Is this what your thinking too?
100ob said a few weeks ago silver was going to 12.50 when it bottomed
at 14.60. 2yrs ago he was saying to the moon instead it went to 8.60.
Now he says back down? While a small pullback is possible gold has broken
out of a reverse head and shoulders which is bullish. Since feb. silver has
been outperforming gold. If and when gold continues up silver will lead
again.Chances of a retrace to 14-15 are small IMO. Back to 17.50 maybe.
Gold should head to new highs now IMO and probably silver too. IF you
are in sit tight. If not buy any dip. BTW where do you read 100ob's latest
thoughts as he seems to have disappeared from here? Pm me if you want.
Thanks
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  #13  
Old 04-10-2010, 03:59 PM
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dsken4562 dsken4562 is offline
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Ha-ha-ha-... ho-ho-ho... this is some funny stuff.

The question on the floor is the same one, over -n- over again... the answer is always the same.

Yawn -n- smile.

Really, don't some of you people get tired of talking about such a small issue as the price of Ag? There really is a bigger picture to discuss: like the 'Why' PM's are important to have a position in. It's not the smaller fractions of a dollar bill that silver might rise or fall in... or how long it will take silver to gain a whole dollar or lose one.

We all know that it makes a deal in the paper market, in which case always bet on a short contract after Ag moves up a few cents.

However, I understood that this forum was about owning 'physical metal' - and short deals in fractions of a dollar bill hardly make it worth selling and then frantically trying to re-enter a new position. re-entering a position includes shipping and premiums for many, and in the end it doesn't have a benefit [unless of course an unusual circumstance that can make it a benefit].

I hope not to offend anyone - yet it is nonsense to purchase physical metals, with a long term plan in mind [as most of us do have], and spend so much time bringing up POS & POG.

Perspective news, world news, regulatory news and information is much more important than POS on a daily basis - because it helps confirm that what we are doing is the right thing to do.

I believe that one can become mentally challenged to the point of being disgruntled with their initial plans for owning Ag or Au... by monitoring the COMEX's notion of price for metals.

I now believe that if you have your silver [also gold] and that your plan for holding long term is still in one piece... just look at POS as the clock that keeps your time moving forward. That kick in your guts... the one that comes with following Ag down from $20 to $10 - that's your last lesson. If you're still here after that... to hell with POS you made it!!!
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  #14  
Old 04-10-2010, 04:26 PM
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ARCHANGEL ARCHANGEL is offline
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Locommotion

Look at 100B thread SECULAR SIVER BULL ALMOST UNDERWAY April10.
Last entry by himself. Let me know if I read it right.

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  #15  
Old 04-10-2010, 05:15 PM
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It should be interesting to see if the CFTC/GATA/JP Morgan will have any effect or get off the ground. Another couple of should tell. In any case up or down we are in exiting times.
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  #16  
Old 04-10-2010, 05:30 PM
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100orbust 100orbust is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowcommotion View Post
100ob said a few weeks ago silver was going to 12.50 when it bottomed
at 14.60. 2yrs ago he was saying to the moon instead it went to 8.60.
Now he says back down? While a small pullback is possible gold has broken
out of a reverse head and shoulders which is bullish. Since feb. silver has
been outperforming gold. If and when gold continues up silver will lead
again.Chances of a retrace to 14-15 are small IMO. Back to 17.50 maybe.
Gold should head to new highs now IMO and probably silver too. IF you
are in sit tight. If not buy any dip. BTW where do you read 100ob's latest
thoughts as he seems to have disappeared from here? Pm me if you want.
Thanks
Two + years ago I did imply Silver would hit north of $100, and that was based strcitly on a chart pattern which was incorrect, as for Ag still going $100+, yes, (Mo) that is not a question but when, more so now then 2 years back.

The projection to $12.50 (worst case) several weeks back, I had this bottom mapped out as early as Oct 2008, in fact, I projected Silver from the low of 9 to rally back toward the 19.50 area and then fall back. The 12.50 target was simply using a .618 (fib retracement) from the net advance of 8.59 to 19.50 (about 11 pts * .618 = 6.60, subtract from 19.50 and you can < $13. This is all documented w/several posts on another forum...

Recently, with Silver rallying above KEY resistance and failure to take out support, the type of correction I am looking for to complete a 30 year pattern is not a typical a-b-c decline, but an a-b-c contracting pattern, which implies that the low @ 14.63 (though the correction is still ongoing), will be the low of the correction, this is "a" down, "b" up is from 14.63 to now (maybe 18.85), then "c" back down to 16's (worst case), therefore "c" leg is higher low then a...there could be a couple smaller turning points before we break out but the contracting pattern (pennant) should hold given the recent price action.

Now, the most important key resistance to watch is the 19.50 area, when Silver takes out this high (and we need 3 closing days above 19.50), Ag should be on its way (starting a secular bull market), 25 is an important resistance point but 19.50 is the key price area to watch. I am reiterating the fact 3 days of closing above 19.50 to eliminate the remote chance of a "big" reversal, which is always a possibility with any market taking out the previous highs.

The lows (should they get down to the 16's), or 16.50, would setup a nice techncial launch pad to overtake 19 / 20. This leg coming off the lows would be compared to when Gold broke out of $250 - $300 range...this is where we are in Silver. It may take many by surprise given the fact May - Aug period is a tendancy for cyclical weakness, but when markets are particular strong, the cycles shift, such that the peak cycle may come very late and the weak cycle may come early and be short-lived.

As for CFTC public hearings, it is very typical for a market to put in a major bottom when some new fundamental news or change in perception occurs, & the markets do not necessarily have to dance as soon as the music starts playing, it can start at any given time, the CFTC is as good a reason as any to promote a new change in investor psychology towards Silver. When the market wants to go up it will, it will find any excuse to justify the move and if there is no excuse present, then it will rally based purely on technicals.
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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities

Last edited by 100orbust : 04-10-2010 at 06:17 PM.
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  #17  
Old 04-10-2010, 05:41 PM
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Danny9995 Danny9995 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Killver View Post
Not likely, from the past few years. I use Kitco's own silver prices; min-max, and an estimate of days over $18, if any.

Year_Min___Max______Dys over $18______National Debt
2007_$12__$16________0______________$7 Trillion
2008_$8.5__$21_______21______________$9 Trillion
2009_$10__$19________10______________$11 Trillion
2010_$15__$19________30________________$13 Trillion

So once Ag tops $18, it's not long until a drop. It will be interesting to see if this holds this year. The most telling number is that silver only exceeded $19 by enough to matter for a period of about 3 weeks... in over 3 years. Total time over $18 was about 2 months... so I wouldn't bet on Ag staying up there, as much as it's overdue.
silver silver
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  #18  
Old 04-10-2010, 06:03 PM
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ARCHANGEL ARCHANGEL is offline
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100 oB

Wow!! I couln`t have said it better myself. And of course I couln`t HA!
I think we all appreciate your technical expertise. Thanks for clearing up
my comment to Locommotion.
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  #19  
Old 04-10-2010, 11:49 PM
lowcommotion lowcommotion is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 100orbust View Post
Two + years ago I did imply Silver would hit north of $100, and that was based strcitly on a chart pattern which was incorrect, as for Ag still going $100+, yes, (Mo) that is not a question but when, more so now then 2 years back.

The projection to $12.50 (worst case) several weeks back, I had this bottom mapped out as early as Oct 2008, in fact, I projected Silver from the low of 9 to rally back toward the 19.50 area and then fall back. The 12.50 target was simply using a .618 (fib retracement) from the net advance of 8.59 to 19.50 (about 11 pts * .618 = 6.60, subtract from 19.50 and you can < $13. This is all documented w/several posts on another forum...

Recently, with Silver rallying above KEY resistance and failure to take out support, the type of correction I am looking for to complete a 30 year pattern is not a typical a-b-c decline, but an a-b-c contracting pattern, which implies that the low @ 14.63 (though the correction is still ongoing), will be the low of the correction, this is "a" down, "b" up is from 14.63 to now (maybe 18.85), then "c" back down to 16's (worst case), therefore "c" leg is higher low then a...there could be a couple smaller turning points before we break out but the contracting pattern (pennant) should hold given the recent price action.

Now, the most important key resistance to watch is the 19.50 area, when Silver takes out this high (and we need 3 closing days above 19.50), Ag should be on its way (starting a secular bull market), 25 is an important resistance point but 19.50 is the key price area to watch. I am reiterating the fact 3 days of closing above 19.50 to eliminate the remote chance of a "big" reversal, which is always a possibility with any market taking out the previous highs.

The lows (should they get down to the 16's), or 16.50, would setup a nice techncial launch pad to overtake 19 / 20. This leg coming off the lows would be compared to when Gold broke out of $250 - $300 range...this is where we are in Silver. It may take many by surprise given the fact May - Aug period is a tendancy for cyclical weakness, but when markets are particular strong, the cycles shift, such that the peak cycle may come very late and the weak cycle may come early and be short-lived.

As for CFTC public hearings, it is very typical for a market to put in a major bottom when some new fundamental news or change in perception occurs, & the markets do not necessarily have to dance as soon as the music starts playing, it can start at any given time, the CFTC is as good a reason as any to promote a new change in investor psychology towards Silver. When the market wants to go up it will, it will find any excuse to justify the move and if there is no excuse present, then it will rally based purely on technicals.
Thanks for that. I tend to agree with what you say here. Will be watching
the key levels and hope you continue to post updates as things unfold.
P.S. It would seem that if your analysis is correct and if we get a pullback to
the 16 range and then a reversal then that would be a very good buy point.

Last edited by lowcommotion : 04-11-2010 at 12:04 AM. Reason: ps
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  #20  
Old 04-11-2010, 05:59 AM
Killver Killver is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ARCHANGEL View Post
According to 100B , if I read him correctly, we go to 18.90 then go down one more time to 14/15. He then says because of the current CFTC news the down side could be limited to only 16.50. The we go up take out 19.50 and we can finally begin the secular phase once we clear 25.
Is this what your thinking too?
After years of seeing silver unable to crack $21 for long, it's hard to imagine this will all reverse. It would mean the US admits the dollar is slipping badly... this is why I think the gov't will intervene if PMs exceed a certain range. Silver is very cheap to control (especially with today's multi-$trillion budgets), although gold may be too much for even the US to hold down now that China is supporting it. Maybe Au will soar and silver will get stuck. Silver should have reached, say, $25 for at least a short time, but hasn't. This could measure how strong the suppression is. We should have $25 silver, no wars, huge military cuts, public option for healthcare, less corporate profits, and especially stronger Wall St regulation, but how much of what the US now does matches what 'We the People' want?
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