Home Site Map

 
Go Back   Kitco Forums > The Markets > Silver discussion group
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #4731  
Old 05-03-2012, 11:19 PM
DayStar's Avatar
DayStar DayStar is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,549
Default

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:
We had less activity in the silver vaults today in comparison to the last few days.
We had no dealer deposit and no dealer withdrawal.

We had the following customer deposit:
1. Into Brinks: 25,193.48
2. Into Scotia: 497,927.56 oz
Total deposit: 523,121.54 oz

We had the following withdrawal by the customer:
1. Out of Brinks: 15,001.11

We had a dandy adjustment:
1. adjusted from the customer account to the dealer account at our good friends over at JPM to the tune of 527,202.65 oz.

The dealer inventory of silver rests tonight at 35.577 million oz
The total of all silver rests at 142.099 million oz.

If [they actually have] that much inventory, it is surprising that they are not settling faster on our patient longs. If it is very profitable for the bankers to wait until the end, why do they deliver upon our longs throughout the month? They could deliver all of the shortfall at the very last day [and make more money that way].
In gold:

Quote:
Not too much action inside the gold vaults today.
We had no dealer deposit and no dealer withdrawal.

We had one good sized deposit of gold into the customer:
1. Into HSBC 49,566.514 oz

We had a tiny withdrawal of gold from Manfra to the tune of 96.45 oz.
We also had one adjustment of 1588.56 oz of gold from the customer to a dealer at Scotia.
The total gold registered or dealer gold rests tonight at 2,407 million oz or 74.86 tonnes of gold.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:
The CME notified us that we had only 64 notices filed for 320,000 oz.
In gold:

Quote:
The CME reported that we had only 5 notices filed today for 500 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:
For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:
http://www.investmenttools.com/futur...Come x_silver

Quote:
The total number of silver notices filed so far this month total 1,683 for 8,415,000 oz. To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for May (993) and subtract out today's deliveries (315) which leaves us with 678 or 3,390,000 oz left to be served upon our longs.

Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this delivery month of May is as follows:
8,415,000 oz (served) + 3,390,000 oz (to be served) = 11,805,000 oz.
We lost 53 contracts to cash settlements or 265,000 oz.

As I mentioned above, the remaining longs seem quite resolute, and if you go back to March you will see a big difference, as we had many more longs disappear in that delivery month than now in May. The month of March is generally bigger in deliveries than May. March had 8.5 million oz of silver officially stand. We will have considerably more in May.

In gold:
Quote:
The total number of notices filed so far this month total 313 for 31300 ounces. To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for May (78) and subtract out today's deliveries (5) which leaves us with 73 notices or 7300 oz left to be served upon our longs.

Thus the total number of gold ounces standing in this non official delivery month of May is as follows:
31,300 oz (served) + 7,300 (oz to be served upon) = 38,600 oz or 1.20 tonnes.
We gained 100 oz of additional physical gold standing.
The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was down 0.70% at 1157. WTI crude was down 2.68 today at 102.54. Brent closed at 116.10, down 2.15. The spread between Brent crude and WTI was 13.56, up 0.53. US treasuries closed at 3.112, down 0.0020. The dollar was up 9 points at 79.22. The PPT/Dow was down 61.98 and settled above the magic number of 13,000 at 13,206.59. The Jun CCI was 548.00, down 2.00. July wheat was up a 1.00 at 615.40. July corn was 614.40 up 3.00. May lean hogs were up 0.025 at 81.300. Aug feeder cattle were up 0.325 at 157.550. May copper was 3.7360, down 0.0510. May natural gas was up 0.087 to close at 2.340. It started back up tonight. Jun coal is 58.23 down 0.36.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report. There is much more on Harvey's blog.

Goooood day!
  #4732  
Old 05-04-2012, 09:58 AM
DayStar's Avatar
DayStar DayStar is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,549
Default

Sandeep Jaitly's latest Gold Basis Backwardation/Contango) Service update: It cannot be emphasised more clearly that gold is being removed from the physical market at the depressed prices. Furthermore, the availability of gold to the lending market is being diminished.
Silver’s action is more acute than gold’s. The May contract – expiring in 25 days is in a backwardation of 1.46% currently. The July contract’s co-basis is rising simultaneously – which should not be occurring unless there is unprecedented pressure on the physical silver market. The action of the ratios of the December gold/silver bases points to imminent silver outperformance.

DayStar
  #4733  
Old 05-04-2012, 10:13 AM
captainsilverton's Avatar
captainsilverton captainsilverton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 10,848
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DayStar View Post
Sandeep Jaitly's latest Gold Basis Backwardation/Contango) Service update: It cannot be emphasised more clearly that gold is being removed from the physical market at the depressed prices. Furthermore, the availability of gold to the lending market is being diminished.
Silver’s action is more acute than gold’s. The May contract – expiring in 25 days is in a backwardation of 1.46% currently. The July contract’s co-basis is rising simultaneously – which should not be occurring unless there is unprecedented pressure on the physical silver market. The action of the ratios of the December gold/silver bases points to imminent silver outperformance.

DayStar
this bodes well for physical silver ?????


INCT
__________________
(Anything, Anytime, Anywhere)


"It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for..."

"The greatest untapped source of motivation is a sense of service to others; focusing on the contribution of our work to other peoples’ lives has the potential to make us more productive than thinking about helping ourselves." (Give and Take, Adam Grant, University of Pennsylvania, 2013)
  #4734  
Old 05-04-2012, 11:58 AM
SilverTongueDevil's Avatar
SilverTongueDevil SilverTongueDevil is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 2,944
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DayStar View Post
Sandeep Jaitly's latest Gold Basis Backwardation/Contango) Service update: It cannot be emphasised more clearly that gold is being removed from the physical market at the depressed prices. Furthermore, the availability of gold to the lending market is being diminished.
Silver’s action is more acute than gold’s. The May contract – expiring in 25 days is in a backwardation of 1.46% currently. The July contract’s co-basis is rising simultaneously – which should not be occurring unless there is unprecedented pressure on the physical silver market. The action of the ratios of the December gold/silver bases points to imminent silver outperformance.

DayStar
Good my buy ends around the 18th May its time for me to relax and end enjoy these summer days but since I live UT we always remember winter is near...
__________________
When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they are not the leaders of the government nor do they control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes… Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” – Napoleon Bonaparte, Emperor of France, 1815

$x1
  #4735  
Old 05-04-2012, 12:21 PM
DayStar's Avatar
DayStar DayStar is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,549
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by captainsilverton View Post
"It cannot be emphasised more clearly that gold is being removed from the physical market at the depressed prices. Furthermore, the availability of gold to the lending market is being diminished.
Silver’s action is more acute than gold’s
." Sandeep Jaitley

This bodes well for physical silver ?????
INCT
CaptainSilverton, the way I read this, Sanjeep says physical gold is leaving the market both by being purchased and removed and by less selling. He says though gold is bad, silver is more acute than gold. I understand him to say that the supply of physical silver is tighter than the supply of gold. As a result, he expects silver to outperform gold. This bodes well for the price of silver in fiat. It might not bode so well for the availability of physical, should you choose to try to purchase it.

DayStar
  #4736  
Old 05-04-2012, 01:01 PM
chinewalker's Avatar
chinewalker chinewalker is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,376
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverTongueDevil View Post
Good my buy ends around the 18th May its time for me to relax and end enjoy these summer days but since I live UT we always remember winter is near...
+1

May you have many nice runs
  #4737  
Old 05-04-2012, 02:49 PM
captainsilverton's Avatar
captainsilverton captainsilverton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 10,848
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DayStar View Post
CaptainSilverton, the way I read this, Sanjeep says physical gold is leaving the market both by being purchased and removed and by less selling. He says though gold is bad, silver is more acute than gold. I understand him to say that the supply of physical silver is tighter than the supply of gold. As a result, he expects silver to outperform gold. This bodes well for the price of silver in fiat. It might not bode so well for the availability of physical, should you choose to try to purchase it.

DayStar
Thanks DayStar,

for better or worse I have enough physical at my age to keep me king of the hill, for myself and immediate family.... more than i will ever need, even if cashed in at $25-30/oz....with that said, i like many stackers, exempting the low volume newbies, have substantial physical holdings, and would love to see $40 and above...I ask not much...

years of connections and networks allow me to trade into old collections often, and usually below whatever current POS is (fiat for PM's)...though still, again, and probably for as long as i can physically get up and go that will continue...we now are buying for the ones we love when i/we are gone, we have had plenty of luck lately buying up large collections of US 90% and .999 bullion if and when it is there, and i have the opportunity of being the one they wish to sell to, we are not ones to online order fresh clean bullion often...

as always, i much appreciate your posts...

now when i say gone????.. my hope is another 25-30 years on this place called earth.., i ain't quite 60 yet!!!!

many thanks for the reply..

INCT
__________________
(Anything, Anytime, Anywhere)


"It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for..."

"The greatest untapped source of motivation is a sense of service to others; focusing on the contribution of our work to other peoples’ lives has the potential to make us more productive than thinking about helping ourselves." (Give and Take, Adam Grant, University of Pennsylvania, 2013)
  #4738  
Old 05-04-2012, 03:51 PM
SilverTongueDevil's Avatar
SilverTongueDevil SilverTongueDevil is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 2,944
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chinewalker View Post
+1

May you have many nice runs
Thank you sir and Ive made a half dozen trips across the watery ways already..
And I hope the same for you...
__________________
When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they are not the leaders of the government nor do they control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes… Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” – Napoleon Bonaparte, Emperor of France, 1815

$x1
  #4739  
Old 05-05-2012, 01:52 PM
DayStar's Avatar
DayStar DayStar is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,549
Default

This is DayStar (DS) with the Saturday Harvey Report. DS: There was one failed bank siezed by the FDIC
Friday night: Security Bank, National Association North Lauderdale FL.

Commitment of Traders Report (COT), Harvey's comments on gold: As far as I am concerned we have a crime scene as the shorts have massively increased their shortfall and on Sunday after the two elections, the world financial scene will probably go haywire! In a nutshell the huge increase in the banker shorts is very bearish and will signal another huge raid.
Silver: Neutral - the commercials went net short a tiny 1360 contracts.
DS: This silver COT is bullish to me as elites apparently do not intend to add new naked shorts that they have to try to cover, even in the face of declining gold after it is forcibly smashed down by the election results. Never mind there is no reason why gold should be smashed by a return to deficit spending.

DS: It appears that there was enough push back from the Comex traders that they got a 90 day reprieve on new margin requirements. From the Chicago trading pits to the New York oil and metals markets, "locals" who typically trade with their own money were aghast at the change in policy. This is the first time we've seen those little speculators stand up in numbers and protest the market rigging maneuvers. The really bad thing besides decreasing profit potential and increasing capital requirements is that it appears to NOT APPLY to JPM, HSBC, Deutsche Bank and the like, because their positions are (cough, cough) hedged!

David Stockman: Let's talk about timing. On December 31, 2012 the tax cuts expire, defense cuts go into place and we hit the debt ceiling. That will be a clarifying moment; never before have three such powerful vectors come together at the same time — fiscal triple witching. First, the debt ceiling will expire around election time, so the government will face another shutdown and it will be politically brutal to assemble a majority in a lame duck session to raise it by the trillions that will be needed. Second, the whole set of tax cuts and credits that have been enacted over the last 10 years total up to $400–500B annually, and they will expire on Dec. 31, so they will hit the economy like a ton of bricks if not extended. Third, you have the sequester on defense spending that was put in last summer as a fallback, which cannot be changed without a majority vote in Congress. It is a push-pull situation: If you defer the sequester, you need more debt ceiling. If you extend the tax expirations, you need a debt ceiling increase of $100B a month. Instead of hyperinflation or deflation there will be a major financial dislocation, which means painful re-pricing of financial assets. What should an investor do? Stockman: My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains.

Jim Grant: "The Federal Reserve Is The Vampire Squid Of Vampire Squids"
The vampire squids have manipulated virtually every single price and valuation in the capital markets. People ought to recognize when they invest that one of the unspoken risks is the risk that this hall of mirrors, this Barnum and Bailey world that the Fed has created for us is going to vanish one day, because they will not be able to hold it any more... [DS: or more likely choose to pull the plug and ravage the system as it dies]. One must always keep in mind that the valuations that we see, that the prices that we watch flicker across the tape are prices that are fundamentally manipulated by these well-intended [DS: they are not; they are doing this intentionally to torch the economy and profit as it goes down], dangerous people in Washington called the Federal Reserve. And to think that 3 short years ago Grant would have been branded a loony, tin-foil hat wearing gold bug, while now it has become trendy for hedge fund managers to bash the Fed with impunity. It is all downhill from here.

Harvey: This Sunday, we will witness two big elections: one in Greece and one in France that likely will have a large impact on the Euro and the EU in general. Graham Summers discusses 4 reasons why he feels that Germany will leave the Euro:
1. France will abandon Germany with the socialist Hollande as president. He will not be willing to go the austerity route.
2. Spain is on the verge of collapse
3. The huge interventions on the part of the ECB are now toxic in Europe
4. The USA will end its operation twist.
Thus with no new funding for the USA and no new LTRO, European stock markets will probably tank. On top of this we are starting to see labour unions in Germany demand for money for its members as they see inflation soaring and German wages lag behind other European nations.

Peter Schiff: Italian banks host more sovereign debt than any other country in Europe. The Italian banks hold 324 billion euros of shaky sovereign bonds of Italy. The Spanish banks hold 263 billion euros worth of Spain's sovereign debt. These banks, of course acquired the bulk of these assets through QE financing called the LTRO. These banks could borrow at will any amounts they chose for a cost of 1% and they could then buy sovereigns on the margin at a yield of 5.5% for a gain of 4.4%. The problem now is that their balance sheets are overloaded and because interest rates have gone up on their leveraged debt. The Italian banks are all under water as yields rise to 6%. LTRO margin calls have been issued against these banks, and thus collateral is rapidly deteriorating from the balance sheet of these banks. This is a catastrophe waiting to happen!!

Harvey: Mark Grant of Out of the Box and Onto Wall Street discusses the isolation of Germany in the new wave sweeping Europe. The new buzz word is "growth" which is a euphemism for printing euros which Germany abhors, since they still have vivid memories of 1923-1924 Weimar. Instead of the "ugly American" it is now the "Ugly Germans". We are witnessing the re-emergence of nationalism and protection of borders. The backbone of the Euro was the freedom from border crossings. Now we see protection of borders. This is what we should expect come Monday morning the day after the elections.

Harvey: Its official, Argentina has voted to nationalize the Oil holdings in Argentina of Repsol. They have also decided that they will not pay the 10 billion euros demanded by Spain. Yesterday we heard that Bolivia will also confiscate one of Spain's electrical distribution companies in Bolivia, Red Electrica. It has not been a good week for Spain. DS: The jackels are closing in on Spain. It is too weak to defend its interests, and they are being exploited. Probably the word has gone out for the elitist minions to pull the plug on Spainish assets so Spain will be weakened as part of the plan to do in the EU. Remember that South America was where the fascists went to recover after WWII and the fascists were/are doing the elitists' bidding.




Harvey's comments on Friday's price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:
Gold closed up today to the tune of $10.50 to $1644.70.
Silver followed suit rising by 42 cents to $30.38.

Thursday, May 3rd Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2012...bs-report.html


Total, Apr (Gold), May (Silver), Jun (Gold) Open Interest


In silver

Quote:
The total silver comex OI completely baffles our bankers. No matter what criminal activity they do they cannot entice our committed silver longs to leave the silver tree. On Friday the total OI came in at 111,680 a rise of 237 contracts from Thursday despite the massive raid and the flight southbound of our silver metal below the 30 dollar level. As I mentioned to you on previous occasions, [our longs seem impervious to the price of silver]. They are steadfast in their convictions and are quite ready to withstand the pain of a lower price. They just wait and patiently stand for delivery.

In gold

Quote:
The total gold comex OI fell appreciably to the tune of 5,252 contracts from 415,844 to 410,592 as gold and silver were raided yesterday. The newbie longs as I promised you were washed away as they succumbed to the antics of our criminal bankers. The non official delivery month of May saw its OI fall 5 contracts from 78 to 73. We had 5 delivery notices on Thursday so we neither gained nor lost any additional gold ounces standing. The next big delivery month for gold is June and here the OI lost a rather large 7,029 contracts as the OI fell from 213,202 down to 206,173. It was here that saw the greatest damage to our newbie longs.

Last edited by ynot2k : 05-05-2012 at 03:32 PM. Reason: per previous pm
  #4740  
Old 05-05-2012, 01:53 PM
DayStar's Avatar
DayStar DayStar is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 3,549
Default

Volume

In silver

Quote:
The estimated volume on Friday was a bit on a low side coming in at 40,672. The confirmed volume on Thursday was considerably higher at 47,049 as the bankers supplied much of the non backed paper together with their friends, the HFT (high frequency traders). These [longs] refused to budge. The bankers were successful in lowering the price which served as a launching pad on Friday for silver's gain.

In gold

Quote:
The estimated volume Friday was back to lacklustre performances coming in at 136,610 compared to the raid day on Thursday with a volume of 176,421. It seems the raid days come attached with higher volumes due to the enticement trading of our high frequency traders.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory: nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory: 15,001.11 (Brinks)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory: nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory: 523,121.54 (Brinks,Scotia)

In gold:

Quote:
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory: nil.
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz: 96.45 (Manfra).
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz: nil.
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in 49,566.514 (HSBC).

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:
The CME notified us that we had a chunky delivery notice on Friday to the tune of 252 contracts for a total of 1,260,000 oz. The total number of delivery notices filed so far this month total 1999 for 9,995,000 oz of silver. To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for May (663) and subtract out Friday delivery notices (252) which leaves us with 411 notices or 2,055,000 oz left to be served upon.
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this delivery month of May is as follows:
9,995,000 oz (served) + 2,055,000 oz (to be served upon) = 12,055,000 oz
we gained another 55,000 oz of additional silver standing.
Please note that the cash settlements have stopped.
Also note that the quantity of silver standing has increased 50% from March and March is a better delivery month than May. This is bothering our banker friends to no end.
Well, look at the situation from the aspect of very wealthy individuals. US debt and money printing have gone exponential and are threatening to soon go hyperbolic. The US is buying its own treasury debt with printed money. The US will take no prudent steps to balance its budget. The world finanaical markets are completely manipulated. The US economy has been gutted of its industry and runs mainly on fiat money government subsidy. The housing market has been destroyed and probably will be dormant to declining for years. Net silver production is down for 2011 and probably will be down yet more for 2012 as large mine report decreased production on greatly increased ore tonnage processed. Major silver discoveries are rare and become increasingly hard to produce due to political factors. Miners face the threat of "windfall profit" taxes, confiscation (Executive Orders), or outright nationalization. The USGS estimates that silver will be the first element to become extinct in the wild. Industry annually uses massive amounts of silver that are destined for the landfills in currently unrecoverable concentrations. Most of the above ground silver has already been consumed. Less physical silver remains above ground than there is gold. In very ancient days, silver was more valuable than gold. What would a prudent wealthy individual do? His fiat dollars and total net worth measured in any paper store of value are headed toward oblivion. Would not prudence dictate that such a one convert decaying fiat into real money, stand for delivery, and take possession? It seems that is what we are seeing, whether it is governments like China and Russia converting fiat to money or whether it is wealthy individuals such as Miles Franklin reports are frequenting their business, there are some very informed individuals who are not bothered by margins that are stedfastly holding their positions in Comex and appear to be standing for delivery.

Harvey notes that 500,000 to 600,000 ounce lots of silver have regularly been disgorged from one vault to be deposited in another. Why the regular movements of this number? Could it be that these amounts are a truck load for an armoured car, where the physical goes out from one vault and merely paper is deposited at another, while the actual physical goes to elite destinations unknown?


In gold:

Quote:
The CME notified us that we had only 7 notices filed for 700 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:
For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:
http://www.investmenttools.com/futur...Come x_silver

Quote:
The total number of delivery notices filed so far this month total 1999 for 9,995,000 oz of silver. To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for May (663) and subtract out Friday delivery notices (252) which leaves us with 411 notices or 2,055,000 oz left to be served upon.
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this delivery month of May is as follows:
9,995,000 oz (served) + 2,055,000 oz (to be served upon) = 12,055,000 oz
we gained another 55,000 oz of additional silver standing.

Please note that the cash settlements have stopped.
Also note that the quantity of silver standing has increased 50% from March and March is a better delivery month than May. This is bothering our banker friends to no end.
In gold:
Quote:
The total number of notices filed so far this month total 320 for 32,000 oz. To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for May (73) and subtract out today's delivery notices (7) which leaves us with 67 notices or 6,700 oz left to be served upon.

Thus the total number of gold ounces standing in this non official delivery month of May is as follows;
32,000 oz (served) + 6700 oz (to be served upon) = 38,700 oz or 1.203 tonnes, the same as Thursday.
The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was unchanged at 1157. WTI crude was down a whopping 4.05 today at 98.45. Brent closed at 113.16, down 2.94. The spread between Brent crude and WTI was 14.67, up 1.11. US treasuries closed at 3.071, down 0.0410. The dollar was up 28 points at 79.50. The PPT/Dow was down 168.32 and settled above the magic number of 13,000 at 13,038.27. The Jun CCI was 543.00, down 5.00. July wheat was down 6.00 at 609.40. July corn was 620.20 up 5.60. May lean hogs were down 1.500 at 79.80. Aug feeder cattle were up 0.875 at 158.100. May copper was 3.7210, down 0.0150. May natural gas was down 0.061 to close at 2.279. It started back up tonight. Jun coal is 57.92 down 0.31.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report. There is much more on Harvey's blog.

Goooood day!
Closed Thread


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:58 AM.


Copyright@ 2007 Kitco Inc.